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Getbig Main Boards => Politics and Political Issues Board => Topic started by: headhuntersix on July 17, 2008, 07:43:05 AM
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MY greatest worry on Iran's nuclear threat to civilization isn't the military option. It's trying that option on the cheap.
If there's any way to block Tehran's pursuit of nukes short of warfare, I'm all for it. Maybe yesterday's dispatch of the No. 3 US diplomat to observe the European Union's talks with the mullahs about their nukes will work a miracle (don't hold your breath).
Military strikes must be the last resort. Even a successful attack would panic oil markets, interrupt supplies to an unknown degree and make enemies of the Iranian people for another generation.
But the fanatics in Tehran may leave us no peaceful alternative. In that case, the most disastrous thing we could do would be to launch an economy-model attack.
If forced to strike, we have to do it right. When safe-at-home ideologues bluster, "Just bomb 'em," they haven't a clue how complex this problem is.
Nor is there any chance that the Israelis could handle Iran on their own (their recent air-force exercise was psychological warfare). As skilled as their pilots and planners may be, the Israelis lack the capacity to sustain a strategic offensive against Iran - or to deal with the inevitable mess they'd leave behind in the Persian Gulf. Israel's aircraft could do serious damage to Iran's nuke program, but the US military would face the potentially catastrophic aftermath.
Without compromising any secrets - the Iranians already know what we'd need to do - here are the basic requirements for smacking down Iran's nuke program:
* Take out Iran's air-defense and intelligence network to protect our attacking aircraft.
* Take down its national communications network to degrade its military reaction.
* Strike dozens of dispersed nuclear-related targets - some of them in hardened underground facilities, with others purposely placed in populated areas.
* Hit every anti-ship-missile installation along Iran's Persian Gulf coast and the Straits of Hormuz. The reflexive Iranian response to an attack would be to launch sea-skimmer missiles against oil tankers and Western warships. The Iranians know that oil's now the world's Achilles heel.
* Destroy Iran's naval capacity, including small craft, in the first 24 hours to prevent attacks on shipping (expect suicide attacks, too).
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Immediately take out all of Iran's long-range and intermediate-range missiles - not just those that could strike Israel, but those that could hit Saudi, gulf-state or Iraqi oil refineries, pipelines, port facilities and oil fields . . . or our installations in the region.
* Hit the military's key command centers in Tehran, as well as regional headquarters, with special attention to the Revolutionary Guards' infrastructure.
* Expect three to six weeks of intense air and naval fighting, followed by months of skirmishing and asymmetrical warfare. And Iraq will heat back up, too.
Screw up the effort, and today's oil prices will double or triple, with severe downstream shortages showing up in a matter of weeks - every oil tanker's insurance will be canceled immediately, even if the Straits of Hormuz remain open (unlikely).
And we'll be in the global doghouse.
Gimme-my-war chumps of the sort who believed "dissident" Ahmed Chalabi on Iraq insist that, if we weaken the Tehran regime by attacking, the Iranian people will overthrow it.
Utterly wrong.
Yes, many Iranians detest their killer-bumpkin president. But plenty of Americans despise our president - yet, if our homeland were attacked tomorrow, most would rally behind him. And we'd fight back. The Iranians would respond the same way.
If a war did spark regime change, the new government might well be even harder-line. Nobody likes to be bombed - and serious attacks on Iran's nuclear program would kill a lot of Iranians.
Yet it'd be even worse if we tried to hit Iran on the cheap, in some think-tank-concocted Shock and Awe Part II. "Precision" attacks - limited to air-defense sites and nuclear facilities - would draw a swift and painful Iranian response against the Gulf's oil exports.
And one last worry: If we decide we have no choice but to attack, we're so casualty-averse that our civilian leadership is apt to put critical targets off-limits to spare Iranian lives. We still want to win wars without hurting anybody, by just breaking the other guy's toys. And that's never going to happen.
If we have to fight, we have to fight to win.
Take down Iran's nuke program? I'm damned certain of one thing: If we start this one, we'd better get it right from the first shot.
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There are two types of war...total war and peace. Carl von Clausewitz
Good article...either we do it right and the libs shut the hell up and let us do what we do best...break shit and pound people into dust, or just forget it.
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I think the idea, is there is NO REASON to bomb them.
There you go guys.......
come and get some.......
;D
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I think at this point, if we bomb them, we enter another Great Depression.
I mean, we're already flirting with collapsing super-banks. Those go, and we all know they bring down hundreds of other institutions. Thanks to corporatism, some institutions ARE too big to fail.
I think if we were in a stronger financial shape, we could bomb them without going broke. Thanks, Bush. If you had managed the war correctly, by holding off on hitting Iraq til afghanistan was won, then by hitting Iraq with double the men, and winning it in 18 months, not "6 years and counting", you'd have the money, the Iraqi oil, and the available troops to hit iran.
You didn't. You tried to string along afghanistan because you couldn't kill the boogeymen Osama. Thought we could sustain war entirely thru debt. Worked for 4 years. In the last year, the world got wise, and they all got scared of our long-term viability.
At this point, hitting Iran is financial suicide. Sadly, they're going to get nukes. Why? Cause bush didn't finish afghanistan before hitting Iraq, and because he didn't hit iraq correctly.
If we had finished Afghanistan in 2003, and finished iraq in 2005, we could be finishing Iran in 2007-8. Didn't work out.
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MY greatest worry on Iran's nuclear threat to civilization isn't the military option. It's trying that option on the cheap.
If there's any way to block Tehran's pursuit of nukes short of warfare, I'm all for it. Maybe yesterday's dispatch of the No. 3 US diplomat to observe the European Union's talks with the mullahs about their nukes will work a miracle (don't hold your breath).
Military strikes must be the last resort. Even a successful attack would panic oil markets, interrupt supplies to an unknown degree and make enemies of the Iranian people for another generation.
But the fanatics in Tehran may leave us no peaceful alternative. In that case, the most disastrous thing we could do would be to launch an economy-model attack.
If forced to strike, we have to do it right. When safe-at-home ideologues bluster, "Just bomb 'em," they haven't a clue how complex this problem is.
Nor is there any chance that the Israelis could handle Iran on their own (their recent air-force exercise was psychological warfare). As skilled as their pilots and planners may be, the Israelis lack the capacity to sustain a strategic offensive against Iran - or to deal with the inevitable mess they'd leave behind in the Persian Gulf. Israel's aircraft could do serious damage to Iran's nuke program, but the US military would face the potentially catastrophic aftermath.
Without compromising any secrets - the Iranians already know what we'd need to do - here are the basic requirements for smacking down Iran's nuke program:
* Take out Iran's air-defense and intelligence network to protect our attacking aircraft.
* Take down its national communications network to degrade its military reaction.
* Strike dozens of dispersed nuclear-related targets - some of them in hardened underground facilities, with others purposely placed in populated areas.
* Hit every anti-ship-missile installation along Iran's Persian Gulf coast and the Straits of Hormuz. The reflexive Iranian response to an attack would be to launch sea-skimmer missiles against oil tankers and Western warships. The Iranians know that oil's now the world's Achilles heel.
* Destroy Iran's naval capacity, including small craft, in the first 24 hours to prevent attacks on shipping (expect suicide attacks, too).
Our economy is about to collapse and all you fools (military/government) can do is talk about more wars and more bombs and more carnage. The American tax payer whatever your holier than thou attitude of them is, has had enough. They're not going to buy into another bullshit threat like that of Iran. Let Israel the rest of the Middle East defend themselves for once. Another point, we have major issues here at home i.e. economy, mexican drug wars, and all Bush and his ilk can do is talk about putting missile defense systems in Russia's backyard. Real genius there!
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I think at this point, if we bomb them, we enter another Great Depression.
I mean, we're already flirting with collapsing super-banks. Those go, and we all know they bring down hundreds of other institutions. Thanks to corporatism, some institutions ARE too big to fail.
I think if we were in a stronger financial shape, we could bomb them without going broke. Thanks, Bush. If you had managed the war correctly, by holding off on hitting Iraq til afghanistan was won, then by hitting Iraq with double the men, and winning it in 18 months, not "6 years and counting", you'd have the money, the Iraqi oil, and the available troops to hit iran.
You didn't. You tried to string along afghanistan because you couldn't kill the boogeymen Osama. Thought we could sustain war entirely thru debt. Worked for 4 years. In the last year, the world got wise, and they all got scared of our long-term viability.
At this point, hitting Iran is financial suicide. Sadly, they're going to get nukes. Why? Cause bush didn't finish afghanistan before hitting Iraq, and because he didn't hit iraq correctly.
If we had finished Afghanistan in 2003, and finished iraq in 2005, we could be finishing Iran in 2007-8. Didn't work out.
And if they get nukes what do you think is going to happen? You think they'll start lobbing them at the Israel? Crazy they may be but not stupid. Right now things are getting very tense with Pakistan and the U.S. military. Pakistan is MUCH more of a threat than Iran as far as nuclear weapons go.
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And if they get nukes what do you think is going to happen? You think they'll start lobbing them at the Israel? Crazy they may be but not stupid. Right now things are getting very tense with Pakistan and the U.S. military. Pakistan is MUCH more of a threat than Iran as far as nuclear weapons go.
See, I think iran wants nukes, because we took out both their neighbors and we've built an oil pipeline on both site that - drum rolls, please.... stops at their borders ;)
PNAC included bases and pipelines thru Iran, remember? ;)
Iran wants nukes so we don't wait 3 years, pull another false flag, and take them out like we did the other 2 countries. I don't like them one bit, fuccem.... but we can't afford bombing them now.
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See, I think iran wants nukes, because we took out both their neighbors and we've built an oil pipeline on both site that - drum rolls, please.... stops at their borders ;)
PNAC included bases and pipelines thru Iran, remember? ;)
Iran wants nukes so we don't wait 3 years, pull another false flag, and take them out like we did the other 2 countries. I don't like them one bit, fuccem.... but we can't afford bombing them now.
You don't like them? What does that mean? Do you hate all Muslims? Do you hate all Hindus? Do you hate all Chinese? How many Iranians do you even know? It's one thing to say you hate their regime and their government, like many across the world would say about us, but it's another to say you hate "Iranians" as a people. Iranians are very much pro west, especially the younger generation. Just as much as we are pretty powerless these days to inflict any type of control over our government so to do the Iranians suffer the same lack of power over theirs. But you probably think every Iranian walks around in a dress and sandals preaching the Koran and carring a knife just waiting to slice someone's head off or rape a woman!
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Nah, ahmedidickhedijad called for OPEC to drop the dollar.
That would crush our economy.
That is essentially calling for you, me, and every other american to live in poverty.
So we could take him out for that, I'm okay with that.
I don't hate "all" of any group. But he did call for oil countries to turn us to poverty overnight. not cool.
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Nah, ahmedidickhedijad called for OPEC to drop the dollar.
That would crush our economy.
That is essentially calling for you, me, and every other american to live in poverty.
So we could take him out for that, I'm okay with that.
I don't hate "all" of any group. But he did call for oil countries to turn us to poverty overnight. not cool.
What right do we have as a nation to exert our dollar hegemony on other countries. Iran and OPEC have everyright to sell their oil in whatever currency they like. It's called national sovereignty. If we didn't have a corrupt banking system and fiat money it wouldn't matter what OPEC or Iran sold their oil in. They could accept camels for all we care. Problem is private banks control the Fed thus control the dollar. If OPEC follows suit and drops the dollar you're right it will spread like a wildfire throughout the world. But that is THEIR RIGHT as a people and as a country. If it benefits them economically to trade in Euros and drop the dollar to benefit their nation who the fuck are we to tell them otherwise so we as Americans can prop up lifestyle and consumption?
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What right do we have as a nation to exert our dollar hegemony on other countries. Iran and OPEC have everyright to sell their oil in whatever currency they like. It's called national sovereignty. If we didn't have a corrupt banking system and fiat money it wouldn't matter what OPEC or Iran sold their oil in. They could accept camels for all we care. Problem is private banks control the Fed thus control the dollar. If OPEC follows suit and drops the dollar you're right it will spread like a wildfire throughout the world. But that is THEIR RIGHT as a people and as a country. If it benefits them economically to trade in Euros and drop the dollar to benefit their nation who the fuck are we to tell them otherwise so we as Americans can prop up lifestyle and consumption?
and at the same time if it benefits us to level the whole country and start a new one thats our right as well i guess.
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What right do we have as a nation to exert our dollar hegemony on other countries. Iran and OPEC have everyright to sell their oil in whatever currency they like. It's called national sovereignty. If we didn't have a corrupt banking system and fiat money it wouldn't matter what OPEC or Iran sold their oil in. They could accept camels for all we care. Problem is private banks control the Fed thus control the dollar. If OPEC follows suit and drops the dollar you're right it will spread like a wildfire throughout the world. But that is THEIR RIGHT as a people and as a country. If it benefits them economically to trade in Euros and drop the dollar to benefit their nation who the fuck are we to tell them otherwise so we as Americans can prop up lifestyle and consumption?
that's his perrogative. My belief is that any nation which wants to make me live in a mud hut eating grass, well, I'm okay with us taking them down.
They accepted the dollar knowing it's flaws. Dropping it because we don't want them having nukes = fcked up.
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that's his perrogative. My belief is that any nation which wants to make me live in a mud hut eating grass, well, I'm okay with us taking them down.
They accepted the dollar knowing it's flaws. Dropping it because we don't want them having nukes = fcked up.
You'd kill every person in the rest of the world so you could drive your SUV, wouldn't you 240?
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that's his perrogative. My belief is that any nation which wants to make me live in a mud hut eating grass, well, I'm okay with us taking them down.
They accepted the dollar knowing it's flaws. Dropping it because we don't want them having nukes = fcked up.
Accepted it? Come on bro.....look into the whole reason our country went off the gold standard and why the world adopted the dollar. It was hardly willfully accepted by the international community. Your own government and the Federal Reserve is what will be responsible for you living in a mud hut. It's called fiat banking. America has pretty much acquired the "world" through debt and credit and force. Hence why everything is about to fucking collapse in our face. It's a ponzi scheme. Do you even know what a Ponzi scheme is? Let me ask you a question 240.....do you even know how money is created in this country? Do you know where money comes from? Do you know why our country is in debt? Do you know why the Founding Fathers fought so hard against the private banking cartel called the Federal Reserve? No you don't or you wouldn't spew your ignorant uniformed let's kill em all to maintain our lifestyle bullshit that you do. Because that's what it is bullshit.
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and at the same time if it benefits us to level the whole country and start a new one thats our right as well i guess.
And if suicide bombers want to come to this country and blow up your kids in their schools that's their right too? Why don't we just conquer the whole world? We can bring McDonald's, Ipods, and SUV's to every corner of the earth. I mean fuck Muslims and the middle east right? We don't need em. They just drag down our way of life.
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I'm well aware of the house of cards. However, it's OUR house of cards. So I'd prefer it keep on standing.
I wouldn't bomb the world to keep my SUV. But I do get upset when some national leader not just drops the buck (as Iran is doing), but tries to get everyone else to do the same. THAT is wrong.
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I'm well aware of the house of cards. However, it's OUR house of cards. So I'd prefer it keep on standing.
I wouldn't bomb the world to keep my SUV. But I do get upset when some national leader not just drops the buck (as Iran is doing), but tries to get everyone else to do the same. THAT is wrong.
Iran is just doing what we do when we force other countries to accept the dollar, only we do it at the point of a gun.
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Iran is just doing what we do when we force other countries to accept the dollar, only we do it at the point of a gun.
well, it is what it is.
i can't condemn it if I'm going to reap the rewards, and live well here. that'd make me a hypocrite.
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I'm well aware of the house of cards. However, it's OUR house of cards. So I'd prefer it keep on standing.
I wouldn't bomb the world to keep my SUV. But I do get upset when some national leader not just drops the buck (as Iran is doing), but tries to get everyone else to do the same. THAT is wrong.
LOL But you have no problem with our country pushign our values on other countries? You have no problem with us forcing democracy and our way of life on people? Hypocrisy at its finest! And yes you probably would bomb other countries to keep your SUV. Just admit it! You probably are the type of American that loves going to France and seeing McDonald's on every corner!!!!!!! Can't live without your cheeseburgers and fries right?
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LOL But you have no problem with our country pushign our values on other countries? You have no problem with us forcing democracy and our way of life on people? Hypocrisy at its finest! And yes you probably would bomb other countries to keep your SUV. Just admit it! You probably are the type of American that loves going to France and seeing McDonald's on every corner!!!!!!! Can't live without your cheeseburgers and fries right?
I am not a fan of exporting corporatism. But what can I do? nada.
I'm an isolationist, but I understand our education system is so watered down that we'd be broke quickly if we stopped exploiting other nations. we just can't compete in tech anymore, nor in mnfg. And service economy only goes so far.
it is what it is. We got lazy, now we need to borrow and exploit just to stay afloat. Changing it would mean we all live thru a rough patch here, and I'm not crazy about that idea.
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I am not a fan of exporting corporatism. But what can I do? nada.
I'm an isolationist, but I understand our education system is so watered down that we'd be broke quickly if we stopped exploiting other nations. we just can't compete in tech anymore, nor in mnfg. And service economy only goes so far.
it is what it is. We got lazy, now we need to borrow and exploit just to stay afloat. Changing it would mean we all live thru a rough patch here, and I'm not crazy about that idea.
240, eventually someone will pay...your children or your grandchildren...it can't go on forever.
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240, eventually someone will pay...your children or your grandchildren...it can't go on forever.
i know, dude, I know.
Only hope is that something - some new alternative form of energy.... another microslft-level creation... nanotechnology.... some amazing cancer breakthru etc... arises which puts us back on the map.
If/when it does, we'll recover a bit. If ten Bill gates came out tomorrow with terrific new ideas, and Ron paul Jr got into office, things could get better. But it'll never be 100% as the founding fathers intended. Just won't happen.
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i know, dude, I know.
Only hope is that something - some new alternative form of energy.... another microslft-level creation... nanotechnology.... some amazing cancer breakthru etc... arises which puts us back on the map.
If/when it does, we'll recover a bit. If ten Bill gates came out tomorrow with terrific new ideas, and Ron paul Jr got into office, things could get better. But it'll never be 100% as the founding fathers intended. Just won't happen.
What I specifically meant is that SOMEONE will one day have to live in depression like circumstances.
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What I specifically meant is that SOMEONE will one day have to live in depression like circumstances.
unless we come up with something like I mentioned.
If an american inventor comes up with something that pwns microsoft, we'll have an awesome export. If an american firm cures cancer, we'll have an awesome export. If we learn to create mass quantities of rice or whey in a dish from oxygen using nanotechnology, we'll have an awesome export.
It just takes the next big idea to suddenly reverse the trade deficit. Sure, big companies will grab it and export it. but that just means yen and euros flooding in, not out.
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unless we come up with something like I mentioned.
If an american inventor comes up with something that pwns microsoft, we'll have an awesome export. If an american firm cures cancer, we'll have an awesome export. If we learn to create mass quantities of rice or whey in a dish from oxygen using nanotechnology, we'll have an awesome export.
It just takes the next big idea to suddenly reverse the trade deficit. Sure, big companies will grab it and export it. but that just means yen and euros flooding in, not out.
Good luck with that dream...
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Good luck with that dream...
just a few years ago, if someone told you an African-American man would be pwning a decorated white war vet in swing state polls - in the midst of two wars....
you would have laughed in his face, right?
Anything's possible. 80 years ago, nobody believed the computer would have any real function. Today we can't live without them. In 80 year, our grandkids will swear by something we cannot yet fathom.
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just a few years ago, if someone told you an African-American man would be pwning a decorated white war vet in swing state polls - in the midst of two wars....
you would have laughed in his face, right?
Anything's possible. 80 years ago, nobody believed the computer would have any real function. Today we can't live without them. In 80 year, our grandkids will swear by something we cannot yet fathom.
Still, the US is an empire. History teaches us that empires eventually fall, usually because they become too expensive.
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this is off topic, I'll add my comment anyway ;D
I don't want to get old because of this fact. I want to see what life will be like in 100-150 years from now.
See I think I was born in the wrong fucking time period. Brad Pitt in Legends of the Fall. That's what a real life is all about. Not our fucking pathetic plasticized society. I could care less what life is like in 100-150 years. It will probably be more pathetic and fake than it is now. People will be fucking robots and sucking down liquid slop out of a machine for food. What's the point of living to 200 years old in that type of world? Kids will sit around watching some dumbed down t.v. show like The Wiggles instead of playing tag at recess and skinning their knees and elbows.
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Still, the US is an empire. History teaches us that empires eventually fall, usually because they become too expensive.
Also because they become too corrupt. And also most "revolutions" endured by human beings across the continuum have been a result of unequal wealth distribution. In America the middle class is being dissolved into the haves and have nots. Those just barely making it and those spending $2000 on handbags and Jimmy Choo shoes without batting an eye. You watch. It will be Americas downfall like it has for many countries. Without a strong middle class democracy fails.
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See I think I was born in the wrong fucking time period. Brad Pitt in Legends of the Fall. That's what a real life is all about. Not our fucking pathetic plasticized society. I could care less what life is like in 100-150 years. It will probably be more pathetic and fake than it is now. People will be fucking robots and sucking down liquid slop out of a machine for food. What's the point of living to 200 years old in that type of world? Kids will sit around watching some dumbed down t.v. show like The Wiggles instead of playing tag at recess and skinning their knees and elbows.
LOL
Like the movie Idiocracy.
hope it doesn't go that way.
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LOL
Like the movie Idiocracy.
hope it doesn't go that way.
I still have to rent that. I heard it was funny.
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I still have to rent that. I heard it was funny.
It's pretty stupid, but it has it's moments.
"plants crave it"
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See I think I was born in the wrong fucking time period. Brad Pitt in Legends of the Fall. That's what a real life is all about. Not our fucking pathetic plasticized society. I could care less what life is like in 100-150 years. It will probably be more pathetic and fake than it is now. People will be fucking robots and sucking down liquid slop out of a machine for food. What's the point of living to 200 years old in that type of world? Kids will sit around watching some dumbed down t.v. show like The Wiggles instead of playing tag at recess and skinning their knees and elbows.
Morlocs and Elois...
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Also because they become too corrupt. And also most "revolutions" endured by human beings across the continuum have been a result of unequal wealth distribution. In America the middle class is being dissolved into the haves and have nots. Those just barely making it and those spending $2000 on handbags and Jimmy Choo shoes without batting an eye. You watch. It will be Americas downfall like it has for many countries. Without a strong middle class democracy fails.
Reading ur crap is tiring.If u don't like the plastic society here, u can move to some 3rd world shithole and live life on the barrel of a gun. U have no idea how good u have it. Your bullshit is representative of much of our middle class that has no idea what its like ouitside our borders. Stop whining about life, shut the hell up and pay ir taxes. Short of that, move.
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Reading ur crap is tiring.If u don't like the plastic society here, u can move to some 3rd world shithole and live life on the barrel of a gun. U have no idea how good u have it. Your bullshit is representative of much of our middle class that has no idea what its like ouitside our borders. Stop whining about life, shut the hell up and pay ir taxes. Short of that, move.
Then don't read my crap tough guy! Nobody is forcing you. Deep down though you love it because it stokes your bullshit gung ho pseudo patriotic rego!!!!!!! LOL.