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Getbig Main Boards => Politics and Political Issues Board => Topic started by: TerminalPower on September 07, 2008, 11:36:04 PM
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Can you imagine being a Democrat & having a Republican president with a historically low approval rating and your candidate still can't put away the Republican nominees.
Word of advice to you dumb fuck Democrats...Try running against McCain. Enjoy, and if you need help moving to Canada PM me.
Poll: Convention lifts McCain over Obama
By Susan Page, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — The Republican National Convention has given John McCain and his party a significant boost, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken over the weekend shows, as running mate Sarah Palin helps close an "enthusiasm gap" that has dogged the GOP all year.
McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by 50%-46% among registered voters, the Republican's biggest advantage since January and a turnaround from the USA TODAY poll taken just before the convention opened in St. Paul. Then, he lagged by 7 percentage points.
CONVENTION: GOP rejuvenated
The convention bounce has helped not only McCain but also attitudes toward Republican congressional candidates and the GOP in general.
"The Republicans had a very successful convention and, at least initially, the selection of Sarah Palin has made a big difference," says political scientist Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia. "He's in a far better position than his people imagined he would be in at this point."
FIND MORE STORIES IN: George W Bush | Barack Obama | John McCain | Republican National Convention | University of Virginia | Joe Biden | Sarah Palin | Larry Sabato
However, in an analysis of the impact of political conventions since 1960, Sabato concluded that post-convention polls signal the election's outcome only about half the time. "You could flip a coin and be about as predictive," he says. "It is really surprising how quickly convention memories fade."
McCain has narrowed Obama's wide advantage on handling the economy, by far the electorate's top issue. Before the GOP convention, Obama was favored by 19 points; now he's favored by 3.
The Republican's ties to President Bush remains a vulnerability. In the poll, 63% say they are concerned he would pursue policies too similar to those of the current president. Bush's approval rating is 33%.
In the new poll, taken Friday through Sunday, McCain leads Obama by 54%-44% among those seen as most likely to vote. The survey of 1,022 adults, including 959 registered voters, has a margin of error of +/— 3 points for both samples.
Among the findings:
• Before the convention, Republicans by 47%-39% were less enthusiastic than usual about voting. Now, they are more enthusiastic by 60%-24%, a sweeping change that narrows a key Democratic advantage. Democrats report being more enthusiastic by 67%-19%.
• Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, a national unknown before McCain chose her for the ticket 10 days ago, draws a strong reaction from voters on both sides. Now, 29% say she makes them more likely to vote for McCain, 21% less likely.
Obama's choice of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden as running mate made 14% more likely to vote for the Democrat, 7% less likely.
• McCain's acceptance speech Thursday received lower ratings than the one Obama gave a week earlier: 15% called McCain's speech "excellent" compared with 35% for Obama.
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once obama took the lead over hilary in polls, he started losing states. his 'underdog' status meant his young base wasn't motivated to get up and vote.
those state-by-states still say the same thing, though... not good news for mccain.
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Not looking good for Obama.
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once obama took the lead over hilary in polls, he started losing states. his 'underdog' status meant his young base wasn't motivated to get up and vote.
those state-by-states still say the same thing, though... not good news for mccain.
Man you gotta spin on everything. Your boy's gettin his ass handed to him by an old fart who is a lot like G. Bush, and a nobody, know nothing. You all revere him as being the Messiah. You got all of the liberal T.V and internet news broadcasters (except for Fox). You got 99% of the print media thats endorsing him. Tell me now, why can't Obama put him away? He should be leading by double digits, but he's losing 50-46, and you say not good news for McCain? NOT GOOD NEWS FOR MCCAIN???? Seriously, admit that this is way closer than it should be. Be credible.
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Man you gotta spin on everything. Your boy's gettin his ass handed to him by an old fart who is a lot like G. Bush, and a nobody, know nothing. You all revere him as being the Messiah. You got all of the liberal T.V and internet news broadcasters (except for Fox). You got 99% of the print media thats endorsing him. Tell me now, why can't Obama put him away? He should be leading by double digits, but he's losing 50-46, and you say not good news for McCain? NOT GOOD NEWS FOR MCCAIN???? Seriously, admit that this is way closer than it should be. Be credible.
You're citing national polls.
Al Goe won the national vote. How did that work out for him?
In America, we have an electoral process which works by states. Learn more: http://pollster.com/
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We really can't start looking at polls yet, it's still too early.
This country is in bad shape. Biden will make Palin look more ignorant than what she already is when they start debating.
If the Republicans win this race, it will prove this country election process is corrupt.
With everything that has happened to this country and the economy over the last eight years, no one in their right mind would vote for someone who has backed 90% of George Bush's decisions.
Bill Clinton made a very good point when he said, "the last 8 years, is the first time in 25 years Republicans have control the White House and Congress, and look what has happen to our country."
*Highest deficit in the history of the U.S.
*Over the last 8 years we pay 3 times as much for a gallon of gas.
*Food prices.
*We now pay twice as much for healthcare
*Highest unemployment rate in 25 years.
*Millions of people have lost their homes.
*Bush has pissed off every other Country in the World.
*A war with no end in sight.
The list could keep going.
All I'm saying is, who in their right f**king mind would vote for another 4 years of this bullshit.
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240...Obama has been tanking since mid way through the primaries.....the polls matter now. McCain has ground to make up, no doubt but things are trending in his direction.
Sorry Mark but raising taxes, bullshit social spending, a naive foreign policy, the list for not voting Obama is endless. As someone who's done multiple tours overseas and understands the threat, an Obama presidency would be a friggen disaster. This guy has no clue. Hil would have been a better choice.
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"Likely voters" is key here.
Even though polls are really not an issue right now, i wonder if all the polls showing Obama in the lead were "likely voters"
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haha now polls all of a sudden don't matter anymore to dems
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we have less then 60 days.......the debates will call this one. I think many of us said they'd start to matter after the conventions. I'm sure the polls will have them tied again by next week. If they aren't Obama is in trouble....if McCain is ahead after the debates, he's done.
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if you didn't vote in 2004, you are not considered a likely voters.
Thsi means they're discounting anyone age 18 to 21.
Methinks a few kids in that age might vote. I wonder which candidate they'll pick?
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we have less then 60 days.......the debates will call this one. I think many of us said they'd start to matter after the conventions. I'm sure the polls will have them tied again by next week. If they aren't Obama is in trouble....if McCain is ahead after the debates, he's done.
I agree. The past patterns seem to show the dems need a BIG lead in the polls to have a chance.
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Kick out Cali and NY, and the Dems don't have any chance at all.
In Cali, take the Bay Area and LA-SD strip out, and it's a red state.
Those three cities are basically 46 electorial votes for the Dems.
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Kick out Cali and NY, and the Dems don't have any chance at all.
In Cali, take the Bay Area and LA-SD strip out, and it's a red state.
Those three cities are basically 46 electorial votes for the Dems.
Hi, Unrelated Opinion.
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Yes, I know.
But since we were talking about likely voting and such...
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Yes, I know.
But since we were talking about likely voting and such...
Here check this out
John McCain is most likely to pounce on Obama, proof will come after the debates
when sta sta stuttering Obama tries to weasel himself out of questions
we still have 3 days of O'Reilly interviews with Obama this week
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You're citing national polls.
Al Goe won the national vote. How did that work out for him?
In America, we have an electoral process which works by states. Learn more: http://pollster.com/
And by the states, it a horse race. Per CNN's numbers it's Obama, 228; McCain, 200. That's without toss-up states.
With them, its Obama/Biden 217, McCain/Palin 174.
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And by the states, it a horse race. Per CNN's numbers it's Obama, 228; McCain, 200.
Not the facts again.
The polls absolutely matter at this point. Two months before election day. Coming down to the home stretch.
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Not the facts again.
The polls absolutely matter at this point. Two months before election day. Coming down to the home stretch.
This 10-point lead will likely drop within a week. For team Obama's sake, it'd better drop. If McCain can hold on to those "toss-up" states that went for Bush in 2004, he's in business and we have our first female VP.
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If McCain can hold on to those "toss-up" states that went for Bush in 2004, he's in business and we have our first female VP.
From your fingertips to God's ears.
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This 10-point lead will likely drop within a week. For team Obama's sake, it'd better drop. If McCain can hold on to those "toss-up" states that went for Bush in 2004, he's in business and we have our first female VP.
I agree. It will tighten up. We're probably looking at another squeaker. I'm really interested to see how they perform in debates.
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You're citing national polls.
Al Goe won the national vote. How did that work out for him?
In America, we have an electoral process which works by states. Learn more: http://pollster.com/
You missed my point. What I'm saying is Obama should be beating their ass, and instead it's close. It should'nt even be close. Don't give me the state by state BS anymore, cuz it ain't true now that Mac's got his his bitch on the ticket......
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You missed my point. What I'm saying is Obama should be beating their ass, and instead it's close. It should'nt even be close. Don't give me the state by state BS anymore, cuz it ain't true now that Mac's got his his bitch on the ticket......
Why should Obama be beating their asses?
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I've been saying it all along...the Dems should be kicking ass, yet because of Obama they're not.
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Any Cindy/Sarah sex videos on the horizon?
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Why should Obama be beating their asses?
Because we're probably in a recession, the opposing party is control of the White House, Bush's approval rating is probably at historic lows, and McCain wasn't a strong candidate (at least out of the gate).
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This could be one of those times where the electoral college does the job for you.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/09/presidential.polls/index.html#cnnSTCText
Sen. John McCain has inched ahead of Sen. Barack Obama in national polls, but the Democratic candidate holds a steady lead in the most recent Electoral College estimates.
John McCain and Sarah Palin are campaigning hard in battleground states.
John McCain and Sarah Palin are campaigning hard in battleground states.
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In national surveys, McCain leads by 2 points, 47 percent to 45 percent, according to CNN's poll of polls released Monday night.
In the Electoral College standings, the most recent survey shows 243 electoral votes either safely in Obama's column or leaning his way. At this point, McCain can claim only 189.
Many of the state polls used to determine the Electoral College standings, however, were conducted before the conventions.
Monday marked the first time McCain passed Obama in CNN's poll of polls. Video Watch how the race has tightened »
On Saturday, Obama was up by 3 in the poll of polls. That lead shrank to just 1 point Sunday before disappearing Monday.
In the most recent survey, 8 percent of respondents said they were still unsure about who they were going to vote for.
The poll of polls is an average of five surveys: CNN (September 5-7), ABC/Washington Post (September 5-7), CBS (September 5-7), Gallup (September 5-7) and Diageo/Hotline (September 5-7). The poll of polls does not have a sampling error.
The CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll released Monday shows McCain and Obama tied at 48 percent.
Don't Miss
* Men's support gives Palin edge in latest poll
* Palin shoves Biden out of the spotlight
* Candidates talk change to sway undecided
* CNN's Electoral Map
The poll, which was conducted Friday through Sunday, carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. It was based on 1,022 telephone interviews.
Republicans are hoping that if McCain can close the popular vote gap, he can also make gains in the electoral gap. The Electoral College will ultimately decide who takes over the White House. Video Watch what the different standings mean »
Although polls across the country are open on one day, the election is not a national poll but a series of 51 state-level elections that decide the members of the Electoral College.
Technically, voters aren't choosing a candidate but a slate of electors who have pledged to vote for that candidate when the Electoral College meets.
With 538 electors up for grabs, the candidate with more than half -- 270 -- wins the presidency. The number of electors from each state equals the number of senators and representatives the state sends to Congress
Both candidates are turning their focus to battleground areas as they try to stack the states in their column.
According to CNN's electoral map, the states that could go either way are Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Missouri, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia.
McCain and his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, are campaigning Tuesday in Lebanon, Ohio, just 30 miles from Obama, who is in Riverside. No Republican has won the White House without winning Ohio.
Obama's running mate, Delaware Sen. Joe Biden, is campaigning in Missouri.
Both parties are putting a lot of emphasis on Missouri. For the past century, the state has voted for the winning presidential candidate in every election except one. (Missouri picked Adlai Stevenson over Dwight Eisenhower in 1956.)
McCain and Palin campaigned there Monday. They're hoping the state's landscape will help them take its 11 electoral votes.
The state has the 13th oldest population in the country, and Obama has struggled with older voters.
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Also, 37 percent of Missourians are evangelical Christians, according to the Pew Forum. That's substantially higher than the 26 percent nationally.
If McCain can take Missouri and tilt the toss-up states of Florida and Ohio, which also have older populations, he will pull ahead of Obama.