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Getbig Main Boards => Politics and Political Issues Board => Topic started by: 240 is Back on June 05, 2009, 05:38:21 AM
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Smallest decrease in jobs since Sept 2007 (before the crisis)
Only 345,000 total lost in May
520,000 was the expectation on Obama's slope.
Remember, Obama said it would be the end of 2009 before we stopped the downward trend and reversed into monthly positive growth. Looks like this may be arriving early.
However, 9.4% if the home survey unemployment rate. We have to decide whether we put more credence in the household survey, or the employers survey.
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Smallest decrease in jobs since Sept 2007 (before the crisis)
Only 345,000 total lost in May
520,000 was the expectation on Obama's slope.
Remember, Obama said it would be the end of 2009 before we stopped the downward trend and reversed into monthly positive growth. Looks like this may be arriving early.
However, 9.4% if the home survey unemployment rate. We have to decide whether we put more credence in the household survey, or the employers survey.
I have a very hard time believing that, post up some stats.
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I have a very hard time believing that, post up some stats.
Every month last months' numbers get revised upwards. This is more nonsense as the chrysler and GM layoffs have not hit.
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Every month last months' numbers get revised upwards. This is more nonsense as the chrysler and GM layoffs have not hit.
I don't think we were losing so many jobs from sept 2007, it didn't really start till 08. the more jobs we lose, the less consumers we have, and more jobs lost as a result. this is really bad because we have a hollow service economy.
240, what do you think will be the engine of new growth?
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I don't think we were losing so many jobs from sept 2007, it didn't really start till 08. the more jobs we lose, the less consumers we have, and more jobs lost as a result. this is really bad because we have a hollow service economy.
240, what do you think will be the engine of new growth?
The only thing I can possibly see really making a difference is cutting the corporate tax on all mfg, easing EPA regs and rules to allow for new plants of all types of goods, cutting the payroll tax, and doing whatwever possible to building new power plants of all types.
We need to make more damn things, not keep importing poverty, cheap crap from china, and exporting jobs.
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Remember when 240 was spouting numbers on how the DOW was going up, a few months ago....and then it fell back down. Nothing heard after that....Obama and his bullshit have done nothing. The spending isn't even front loaded to truly affect the numbers this quickly. His program will make things worse. Many economists think this thing is u shaped or a w...either way we're not even close to the end.
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I have a very hard time believing that, post up some stats.
It's breaking on CNBC now. Jobs report is just coming out.
Job Losses at 345,000, Less Than Forecast; Rate at 9.4%
http://www.cnbc.com/id/31121301
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Personally...
I think it'll be 6 to 9 more months of sludge.
More people are out of work, but they're spending again, at least from my perspective. There's also a greater 'awareness' of unemployment. People that were too lazy to work before 2008 are now blaming their lack of work on the economy. I can name 3 acquantenecs who haven't worked in 4 years because they're drug addled and lazy. They can't stop ranting about the economy now. Bullshit.
So I think the dollar will end up 15 to 25% weaker. I think the sky won't fall. I think it'll be 6 to 9 months til things stabilize and we're on track again. I know, chinese students and russian bloggers saying 'rome is burning' are exciting to read, but we have too many rich abd powerful ppl with too much to lose (and too many bases full of amped up guys like HH6 who would fire some parting shots if their checks stopped) for a crash to occur.
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A small positive, at least there is less loss this month. However, when we do stop the bleeding, I don't think we are going to see an intense rebound next year. I'll bet the growth will be slower than the administration predicts. I don't understand why payroll taxes and corporate tax rates aren't cut as part of a stimulus for all American business. To me, that makes the most sense.
Whoever said we must create things to grow our GDP is correct. We must create an environment where business thrives, albeit fairly. New taxes will further depress the economy and mitigate growth (ie gas tax, cap & trade).
I'm not sure we can say the stimulus has had any real effect vs allowing the economy to recover without the billions we spent in 'stimulus'. We are still pretty deep in the recession, stocks haven't risen much, GM went bankrupt despite giving billions in tax dollars, banks still aren't lending much despite TARP, the dollar has been devalued with the administration printing all this $, and we are on our way to 10% unemployment. The point of the stimulus was to try to reduce the time to recovery and help create an environment for growth as soon as possible. So far, I don't see it. And if it does help, was it worth the amount of tax dollars we spent?
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And if it does help, was it worth the amount of tax dollars we spent?
We might never get back to 1999 levels. Or even 2005 levels.
But we didn't let our financial system collapse. I hear people say "hey, let Citi and AIG and all the other major banks fail, it won't affect me"...
Obama HAD to bail them out. Yeah, things suck right now, but 10% unemployment beats 20% of americans losing their shirt.
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We might never get back to 1999 levels. Or even 2005 levels.
But we didn't let our financial system collapse. I hear people say "hey, let Citi and AIG and all the other major banks fail, it won't affect me"...
Obama HAD to bail them out. Yeah, things suck right now, but 10% unemployment beats 20% of americans losing their shirt.
thats a very narrow view 240 yes 10% does beat 20% but does it still beat it when you take into account the unsurmountable amount of debt it takes to achieve that?
I dont know of anybody who said that it wouldnt affect them only that it wasnt worth it in the long run.
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thats a very narrow view 240 yes 10% does beat 20% but does it still beat it when you take into account the unsurmountable amount of debt it takes to achieve that?
I dont know of anybody who said that it wouldnt affect them only that it wasnt worth it in the long run.
I thin it was 333386 that said he does all his banking at regional banks - and that he received a letter from that bank saying they wouldn't be affected at all if the major banks failed.
I found this to be insulting to 333386, even if he swallowed it hook, line, and sinker. It's all connected.
I don't worry about the debt because I'm fairly sure 1 of 2 things will happen. We'll either 'acquire' control of some great resource or technology and sell the world the next microsoft or electric car or whatever, and the $ will be so good it'll turn things around, or there will be so much world inflation that the 10 trillion printed won't be as impactful as it looks today. I remember when the WTC's went down, people estimated it would be an insane "1 billion" impact to our economy. A billion is nothing, today. Even under Bush, $700 billion TARP... was helping the banks = 700 world trade centers? No way.
In five years, ten trillion bucks won't have the impact it has today.
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I thin it was 333386 that said he does all his banking at regional banks - and that he received a letter from that bank saying they wouldn't be affected at all if the major banks failed.
I found this to be insulting to 333386, even if he swallowed it hook, line, and sinker. It's all connected.
I don't worry about the debt because I'm fairly sure 1 of 2 things will happen. We'll either 'acquire' control of some great resource or technology and sell the world the next microsoft or electric car or whatever, and the $ will be so good it'll turn things around, or there will be so much world inflation that the 10 trillion printed won't be as impactful as it looks today. I remember when the WTC's went down, people estimated it would be an insane "1 billion" impact to our economy. A billion is nothing, today. Even under Bush, $700 billion TARP... was helping the banks = 700 world trade centers? No way.
In five years, ten trillion bucks won't have the impact it has today.
ill let 3333 respond to the first part
as for the second thats pretty naive and lets face business wise horrible planning your scenarios are the equivalent to "ehhh it'll all work out somehow"...I agree that in yrs to come the amount of money we borrowed wont be worth what it is now but that doesnt mean that we still wont owe money and that money still needs to be paid back and with the increasing intrest it will pretty much even out...Honestly imho the only thing that will save us from our debt is WW3 in which we can either sell our military goods to our allies or have our debt forgiven though assisting countries.
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as for the second thats pretty naive and lets face business wise horrible planning your scenarios are the equivalent to "ehhh it'll all work out somehow"...I agree that in yrs to come the amount of money we borrowed wont be worth what it is now but that doesnt mean that we still wont owe money and that money still needs to be paid back and with the increasing intrest it will pretty much even out...Honestly imho the only thing that will save us from our debt is WW3 in which we can either sell our military goods to our allies or have our debt forgiven though assisting countries.
Looking back at history, most presidents have borrowed more than the last group combined. Obama's just following par.
Also, looking at history, there always is a big war to bail out the economy, put people to work, and rape/pillage the spoils/reparations from the losers.
If pakistan and india go at it... or iran and israel... or any other 2 groups, we'd find a way to get invovled, and it'd lead to economic recovery.
Remember, we were in for a major crash in late 2001... bubble burst in Jan 2001 and it was gonna be bad. Then, 911 happened and we were drawn into wars which held off a major recession.
However, since EVERYONE is in the same mess worldwide, it helps us a lot. If inflation happens all over, you don't feel it as much.
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I thin it was 333386 that said he does all his banking at regional banks - and that he received a letter from that bank saying they wouldn't be affected at all if the major banks failed.
I found this to be insulting to 333386, even if he swallowed it hook, line, and sinker. It's all connected.
I don't worry about the debt because I'm fairly sure 1 of 2 things will happen. We'll either 'acquire' control of some great resource or technology and sell the world the next microsoft or electric car or whatever, and the $ will be so good it'll turn things around, or there will be so much world inflation that the 10 trillion printed won't be as impactful as it looks today. I remember when the WTC's went down, people estimated it would be an insane "1 billion" impact to our economy. A billion is nothing, today. Even under Bush, $700 billion TARP... was helping the banks = 700 world trade centers? No way.
In five years, ten trillion bucks won't have the impact it has today.
240 - I'll use an example. In the news you hear a lot lately as to how thse banks are "raising funds" to meet capitilization requirements and hopefully re-pay the tarp money.
How do you think they are doing that????
1. Increasing fees on business banking.
2. Increasing normal fees on customers for checking etc.
3. Increasing minimum balances so they can hit customers with service fees.
4. Raising credit card fees and rates.
My bank did not have to do any of that since they never took tarp money and did not do any CDS or sub-prime loans.
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My bank did not have to do any of that since they never took tarp money and did not do any CDS or sub-prime loans.
You said your bank wouldn't be affected if CITI and AIG and friends failed.
Do you still feel that way?
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The US work force at 155 million people give or take a million. So 155,000,000 - 9.4% is 14,570,000.
If you use the same workforce numbers and subtract by 8.9% you get 13,795,000
so... 14,570,000 - 13,795,000 is ....775,000 jobs lost?
Waaaa?
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You said your bank wouldn't be affected if CITI and AIG and friends failed.
Do you still feel that way?
Citi and AIG did not have to be bailed out the way we did it. If Citi went down to CDS - tough shit. Same with AIG. The govt could have stepped in as a backstop for normal banking.
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http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-higher-ahead-of-payroll-data
Details of the report were mixed. While the payroll figures from a survey of business sites was much better than expected, a separate survey of households showed unemployment increased more than expected. Unemployment rose by 787,000 in the month to 14.5 million, pushing the jobless rate from 8.9% to 9.4%, the highest since August 1983.
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http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-higher-ahead-of-payroll-data
Details of the report were mixed. While the payroll figures from a survey of business sites was much better than expected, a separate survey of households showed unemployment increased more than expected. Unemployment rose by 787,000 in the month to 14.5 million, pushing the jobless rate from 8.9% to 9.4%, the highest since August 1983.
this also doesnt take into account the future job loss of the gm employees etc...or the temp jobs for the govt that will be gone sooner or later...
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this also doesnt take into account the future job loss of the gm employees etc...or the temp jobs for the govt that will be gone sooner or later...
*ALL* jobs are temp jobs these days.
People don't stay with the same firms for 25 years anymore. These 'temp' workers put real $ into the economy for 1 or 2 or 10 years, which leads to new jobs that they can take once their temp stint ends.
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Here's the positive way to look at today's numbers. Trends looking better.
Lowest point = when Bush left office. It's improved every month since then. Wow...
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Can you post a U6 report? I gotta fly.
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*ALL* jobs are temp jobs these days.
People don't stay with the same firms for 25 years anymore. These 'temp' workers put real $ into the economy for 1 or 2 or 10 years, which leads to new jobs that they can take once their temp stint ends.
dude this is why you get the reputation of the obama butt plug bro...
of course every job is a temp job if you look at it like you are nobody works forever either they retire or die so those are temp jobs too by your ignorance...
difference is when ppl who have actual careers leave a job after 5 years they are leaving it for another job these temporary govt positions that have been created and filled will be terminated and the vast majority of those ppl will be unemployed instead of fill another position else where, you dig?
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"Less than four months after the Obama administration argued that unemployment would top 9 percent only if Congress failed to pass a massive trillion-dollar "stimulus" spending bill, the Labor Department reported Friday that the jobless rate had soared to 9.4 percent, the highest in 25 years.
In pushing to get his $787 billion stimulus package passed in Congress, President Obama's economic team said that without the federal spending jolt, the unemployment rate would hit 8.8 percent by the last fiscal quarter of 2010. With the package, his advisers argued, the unemployment rate would reach only 7 percent.
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"Less than four months after the Obama administration argued that unemployment would top 9 percent only if Congress failed to pass a massive trillion-dollar "stimulus" spending bill, the Labor Department reported Friday that the jobless rate had soared to 9.4 percent, the highest in 25 years.
In pushing to get his $787 billion stimulus package passed in Congress, President Obama's economic team said that without the federal spending jolt, the unemployment rate would hit 8.8 percent by the last fiscal quarter of 2010. With the package, his advisers argued, the unemployment rate would reach only 7 percent.
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Nice find. Obama is a liar or incompetent or both.
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I would venture to reckon very little of the stimulous payouts went to job creation.
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I would venture to reckon very little of the stimulous payouts went to job creation.
The whole mess goes to govt spending.
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What I quoted is very important. It shows the economic miscalculations of the administration.
The stimulus may be slightly helpful but not to the degree they were touting. Many of the jobs which have been or will be created are also transient. Its not lasting growth in the economy, which only businesses can provide.
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dude this is why you get the reputation of the obama butt plug bro...
of course every job is a temp job if you look at it like you are nobody works forever either they retire or die so those are temp jobs too by your ignorance...
difference is when ppl who have actual careers leave a job after 5 years they are leaving it for another job these temporary govt positions that have been created and filled will be terminated and the vast majority of those ppl will be unemployed instead of fill another position else where, you dig?
Doh! :)
Here is what Boehner had to say:
Top House Republican slams White House over jobs
Posted: 11:00 AM ET
WASHINGTON (CNN) — The top Republican in the House of Representatives is using Friday's unemployment report to slam President Obama's economic agenda.
Less than an hour after the Department of Labor released its monthly employment report showing unemployment rising to 9.4 percent, House Minority Leader John Boehner released a statement criticizing the Obama administration's record on job creation.
Full Boehner statement:
"Today's unemployment rate is the highest in more than a quarter century, and it's another reminder of how Washington is hanging middle-class Americans out to dry. More than 2.5 million Americans have lost their jobs this year, and what have the Democrats in charge of Washington given them? A trillion-dollar 'stimulus' that isn't producing jobs immediately, as the Administration promised, and that Vice President Biden admits is ripping off the American people. Another $400 billion spending bill loaded with 9,000 unscrutinized earmarks. And bailouts that reward irresponsible behavior and bad business decisions. These policies are harming middle class families when they can least afford it and adding to the massive debt inherited by future generations.
"There is a better way. Doubling down on the Democrats' plans to tax more, spend more, and borrow more from our children and grandchildren is not the right answer to this economic crisis. Republicans have offered better solutions to create more jobs, curb spending, cut taxes, rebuild savings, and control the debt, and we have reached out to our Democratic counterparts to work on these policies in a constructive way. I urge Democrats in Congress and the Administration to finally follow through on their promises of bipartisan cooperation."
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/
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Personally...
I think it'll be 6 to 9 more months of sludge.
More people are out of work, but they're spending again, at least from my perspective. There's also a greater 'awareness' of unemployment. People that were too lazy to work before 2008 are now blaming their lack of work on the economy. I can name 3 acquantenecs who haven't worked in 4 years because they're drug addled and lazy. They can't stop ranting about the economy now. Bullshit.
In my graduating MBA class, I know five people other than myself who are working near minimum wage at retail positions, and another guy who is volunteering at the Y and giving plasma for income. The economy is abysmal, and the job market is astonishingly bad, whether or not you're lazy. After a year of looking for a job, I've all but given up on ever getting a real job. They're nearly impossible to get, at this point, and by the time the economy recovers, my MBA will be all but worthless.
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Boehner is the designated auto-responder for the repub party. He shits on dems every day no matter what.
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In my graduating MBA class, I know five people other than myself who are working near minimum wage at retail positions, and another guy who is volunteering at the Y and giving plasma for income. The economy is abysmal, and the job market is astonishingly bad, whether or not you're lazy. After a year of looking for a job, I've all but given up on ever getting a real job. They're nearly impossible to get, at this point, and by the time the economy recovers, my MBA will be all but worthless.
Figure out what you really like to do and start your own business.
i was unemployed for almost a year after law school and it was horrible. I worked as a trainer at Bally's. I had two shit jobs making 12.oo per hour and then quit to start my own thing. Best move I ever made. .
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Figure out what you really like to do and start your own business.
i was unemployed for almost a year after law school and it was horrible. I worked as a trainer at Bally's. I had two shit jobs making 12.oo per hour and then quit to start my own thing. Best move I ever made. .
I've got a buddy who's a JD/MBA who wants to start a business after a 3 month vacation in South America, so it looks like I'll be doing that, but the whole deal still sucks shit.
Obama's stimulus package created very little in the way of new jobs. Most of the projects his stiulus package created won't start for 2-3 years.
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Figure out what you really like to do and start your own business.
i was unemployed for almost a year after law school and it was horrible. I worked as a trainer at Bally's. I had two shit jobs making 12.oo per hour and then quit to start my own thing. Best move I ever made. .
Yep. Still plenty of opportunities out there. One of the best lines I heard from a teacher of mine, which she said her father told her: "If you're good at what you do, the money will follow you."
I sincerely believe this, regardless of your occupation, education, blue collar, white collar, etc. Much of it depends on your work ethic, integrity, and resourcefulness.
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Boehner is right, but the republicans did not follow this advice during Bush's 2nd term so its hard for them to criticize. Still, the points are more important than who said it.
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I've got a buddy who's a JD/MBA who wants to start a business after a 3 month vacation in South America, so it looks like I'll be doing that, but the whole deal still sucks shit.
Obama's stimulus package created very little in the way of new jobs. Most of the projects his stiulus package created won't start for 2-3 years.
Focus on yourself not what any govt program will do. Figure out the following:
1. What are you good at?
2. What do you like to do?
3. Will people hire you to do what you like do do?
4. Do you provide a valuable service or product people are willing topay for?
5. Are you either the best or most cost effective option for prospective customers?
6. how much do you want or need to make?
7. What budget do you have?
8. Who is your target market?
I can give you plenty of insight on this as I did it myself. I do debt collection and it works for me. With my personality, attitude, accent, etc, people want to hire me because they percieve they are getting an aggressive pitbull to go after deadbeats. I target mostly small businesses with small to medium sized cases since large firms usually ignore these types of companies and provide great service. Service service service!
You also have to be honest about yourself. Because I am honest enough to realize that multi millionaires in scarsdale are not going to hire a 30 y/o punk to do estate planning, i figured out something I would easily get hired for. In fact, the debt collection often leads to other things like real estate closings and general corporate work.
I even repo'd a car the other day in person. No tow truck nothing. I just went to the house, got in the guys' face, told him the deal and got the car. I made $500.00 in 1/2 time. The client was thrilled and now they send me more work.
Private email me and I will help you out. I have been where you have been and it sucks.
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It's breaking on CNBC now. Jobs report is just coming out.
Job Losses at 345,000, Less Than Forecast; Rate at 9.4%
http://www.cnbc.com/id/31121301
oh, you got your years mixed up bud.
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I even repo'd a car the other day in person. No tow truck nothing. I just went to the house, got in the guys' face, told him the deal and got the car.
hahaha you'd better have a handgun permit to get in people's faces to repo cars lol...
Dynamic tow trucks are a way better option for avoiding catching lead
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hahaha you'd better have a handgun permit to get in people's faces to repo cars lol...
Dynamic tow trucks are a way better option for avoiding catching lead
The jerk was hiding it in the garage. I told him he was no longer authorized to keep the vehicle and had the police on the cell phone on hold so he could here it. I then had a copy of the criminal code in my other hand so he could see it.
I asked him: "What do you want to do?????"
He gave me the keys and that's it. $500.00 in 30 minutes.
240 - you want a company shirt???? Private email me.
It has a bulldog on it and it says:
"Pay up or Shut up"
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LOL I'm slowly becoming a 333386 fan
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LOL I'm slowly becoming a 333386 fan
Ha ha. Politics is all in good fun. Serious, I have been to a lot of sites, and this board is definately one of the most balanced of all and has some very good posters.
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Great stuff 33386. You got a NY Italian accent too? F'n sweet.
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Great stuff 33386. You got a NY Italian accent too? F'n sweet.
I look like the guy from the shield and sound like a mix of Joe Pesci from Goodfellas/My Cousin Vinny.
However, when I have to deal with people that it will or does not work with, I can hide my accent very well.
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Great stuff 33386. You got a NY Italian accent too? F'n sweet.
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Great stuff 33386. You got a NY Italian accent too? F'n sweet.
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AND FINALLY :
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The jerk was hiding it in the garage. I told him he was no longer authorized to keep the vehicle and had the police on the cell phone on hold so he could here it. I then had a copy of the criminal code in my other hand so he could see it.
I asked him: "What do you want to do?????"
He gave me the keys and that's it. $500.00 in 30 minutes.
240 - you want a company shirt???? Private email me.
It has a bulldog on it and it says:
"Pay up or Shut up"
WTF? I sure as hell want one of those!
Good stuff.
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the numbers are purposly left off to soften the impact, then revised later when nobody is watching. Example, wall street consensus this morning was anything less then 600k was "good", a big sell off wouldn't ensue. So guess what, the numbers are 500k, which isn't "good" but "better than expected" and they can say it was "priced into the market" thus avoiding a huge sell off. Last months published numbers were around 500k+, the revised number was 124k. So the grand total was 624k!!!
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Lets look at some more revised numbers from last year, shall we?
From CNBC.
In addition, October's job losses were revised UP (+80,000), to show a cut of 320,000, previously reported as a 240,000 loss, while September's losses were revised UP (+120,000), to a loss of 403,000 from down 284,000.
HOW THE FUCK DO YOU MISS CLOSE TO A QUARTER OF A MILLION PEOPLE?
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What is more alarming is the long-term unemployment rate. The government says that a record 4.5 percent of the work force has been out of work for 15 weeks or more. The worst previously seen — at least since 1948, when the government began counting people that way — was 4.2 percent, in December 1982.
Put another way, 21 percent of those who are unemployed have been out of work for at least 15 weeks. That is also a record, exceeding the 19.6 percent proportion seen during the 1958 recession.
Look at all these new records as things are "improving".
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Temp jobs help mask American unemployment rate
http://www.baltimoresun.com/business/bal-temps0605,0,7382352.story
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WTF? I sure as hell want one of those!
Good stuff.
PM me and I will send one out to you.