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Getbig Main Boards => Politics and Political Issues Board => Topic started by: GigantorX on August 07, 2009, 06:06:22 AM
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Job losses slow to 247,000; jobless rate dips
WASHINGTON Employers throttled back on layoffs in July, cutting just 247,000 jobs, the fewest in a year, and the unemployment rate dipped to 9.4 percent, its first decline in 15 months.
It was a better-than-expected showing that offered a strong signal that the recession is finally ending.
The new snapshot, released by the Labor Department on Friday, also offered other encouraging news: workers' hours nudged up after sinking to a record low in June, and paychecks grew after having fallen or flat lined in some cases.
To be sure, the report still indicates that the jobs market is on shaky ground. But the new figures were better than many analysts were expecting and offered welcomed improvements to a part of the economy that has been clobbered by the recession.
Analysts were forecasting job losses to slow to around 320,000 and the unemployment rate to tick up to 9.6 percent.
The dip in the unemployment rate from June's 9.5 percent was the first since April 2008. One of the reasons the rate went down, however, was because hundreds of thousands of people left the labor force. Fewer people, though, did report being unemployed.
All told, there were 14.5 million out of work in July.
If laid-off workers who have given up looking for new jobs or have settled for part-time work are included the unemployment rate would have been 16.3 percent in July. That's down from 16.5 percent in June, which was the the highest on records dating to 1994.
Since the recession began in December 2007, the economy has lost a net total of 6.7 million jobs.
Also heartening: job losses in May and June turned out to be less than previously reported. Employers sliced 303,000 positions in May, versus 322,000 previously logged. And, they cut 443,000 in June, compared with an earlier estimate of 467,000.
The job cuts made in July were the fewest since August 2008.
The slowdown in layoffs in part reflected fewer jobs cuts in manufacturing, construction, professional and business services and financial activities areas that have been hard hit by the collapse of the housing market and the financial crisis. Retailers, however, cut more jobs in July.
Those losses were blunted by job gains in government, education and health services, and in leisure and hospitality.
Still, the worst of the job cuts have passed.
The deepest job cuts of the recession came in January, when 741,000 job disappeared, the most in any month since 1949.
Slower job losses are occuring because companies aren't cutting investment and spending as drastically as they had been during the depths of the recession which came in the final quarter of last year and carried over into the first quarter of this year.
With companies feeling a bit better about the economy's prospects and their own, they boosted workers' hours in July. The average work week rose to 33.1 hours, after having fallen to 33 hours in June, the lowest on records dating to 1964.
And, employers bumped up wages. Average hourly earnings rose to $18.56 in July, up from $18.53 in June. Hourly earnings were stagnant in June. Average weekly earnings, which fell in June, rose to $614.34.
Other recent barometers have shown some improvements in manufacturing, housing and construction activity.
The government reported last week that the economy shrank at a pace of just 1 percent from April-to-June, the strongest signal yet that the recession may be ending.
Many analysts predict the economy could start growing again in the current July-to-September quarter. And, the Fed recently observed that the economy is finally showing signs of stabilizing in some regions of the country especially in parts of the Northeast and Midwest bolstering hopes of a broader-based recovery this year.
Even with the improvements, it will take time for the jobs market to fully heal.
The Federal Reserve has predicted the unemployment rate is likely to top 10 percent this year. Some Fed officials think it could rise as high as 10.6 percent in 2010. The post-World War II high was 10.8 percent at the end of 1982, when the country suffered through a severe recession.
An elevated unemployment rate could become a political liability for President Barack Obama when congressional elections are held next year. The last time the unemployment rate topped 10 percent, the party of the president then Ronald Reagan's GOP lost 26 House seats in the midterm elections in 1982.
Obama has urged Americans to be patient and give time for his $787 billion stimulus package of tax cuts and increased government spending to take hold. Most of the money will flow in 2010.
When the economy is healthy, employers add a net total of around 125,000 jobs a month just to keep the unemployment rate stable. To get the jobless rate down to a more normal 5 percent range, it would take stronger job growth of at least 200,000 jobs a month. Economists say it might take until 2013 to drive down the unemployment rate to 5 percent.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090807/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/us_economy (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090807/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/us_economy)
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Posted by Karl Denninger in Macro Economics at 08:59
Employment Situation Report - July
Let's talk about the employment report:
Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline in July (-247,000), and the unemployment rate was little changed at 9.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The average monthly job loss for May through July (-331,000) was about half the average decline for November through April (-645,000). In July, job losses continued in many of the major industry sectors.
That's the headline.
Now let's look inside, and see if we find actual "green shoots".
Among the major worker groups, unemployment rates for adult men (9.8 percent), adult women (7.5 percent), teenagers (23.8 percent), whites (8.6 percent), blacks (14.5 percent), and Hispanics (12.3 percent) were little changed in July. The unemployment rate for Asians was 8.3 percent, not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
Ok, that's not bad. Not getting worse isn't getting better, but it IS "not getting worse."
In July, the average workweek of production and nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1 hour to 33.1 hours. The manufacturing workweek increased by 0.3 hour to 39.8 hours. Factory overtime was unchanged at 2.9 hours. (See table B-2.)
This is the first upward move in hourly workweek; that is a legitimate improvement, and one of the four items that is in my "must improve" list before economic recovery can be signaled. I need two more positive sequential prints to confirm a trend change.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised from -322,000 to -303,000, and the change for June was revised from -467,000 to -443,000.
That's a problem but its in the rear-view mirror.
Now let's talk about the bad news.
The civilian labor force participation rate declined by 0.2 percentage point in July to 65.5 percent.
This is extremely bad news.
The participation rate must be adjusted back out of the unemployment numbers because those who are not looking for jobs - who have "dropped out" of the workforce - are no longer counted as "unemployed" but they sure count when it comes to consumer spending and thus impact on GDP.
Looking down the release at Page 19 we see that on an unadjusted basis there was no change in unemployment rate (as opposed to a slight improvement) either in U-3 or U-6, and U-5 worsened slightly. This comparison shows that the shift to forcible part-time work - that is, those who are working part-time but want full-time employment, is continuing, and belies any claim of overall improvement.
The general tone of this report thus is characterized as mildly positive on-balance, with the caveat being the forcible shift to part-time employment. When looked at in the context of the expected summer employment boost (e.g. theme parks, hospitality increase for summer vacations, etc) the report is rather nasty however - the usual seasonal spike that one would see in the unadjusted data is greatly muted, signaling caution for the durability of any "improvement" that one might expect to see going forward.
Key will be whether that hiring in fact took place (and masked other weakness, which from a perusal of the internals of the report it appears may have happened) or whether there was simply no hiring at all, in which case this improvement may signal a true organic shift of some sort.
It is for this reason that I require at least two (and preferably three) months of improvement in hours-worked before I call the indicator for employment slack as having turned around.
________________________ ________________________ _______________________
Denninger as usual nails it. More lies and spin of course. How does the rate go down when an additional 250k lose their jobs???
Its only because people who are not looking for a job are no longer counte in the numbers.
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It's kinda like when AIG posts a profit on investments and from the adoption of new accounting rules.
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Only 250k jobs lost.
At this rate, we may be at positive job growth in 1-2 months.
Obama said it would be end of 2009 and we're only in August.
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What will all the cry babies on here do when the economy turns around? Mass suicide? Liveleak that shit, please!
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What will all the cry babies on here do when the economy turns around? Mass suicide? Liveleak that shit, please!
No we'll be happy numbnuts. Big difference in being realistic and being a braindead cheerleader like yourself.
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What will all the cry babies on here do when the economy turns around? Mass suicide? Liveleak that shit, please!
we will hear all about how the economy recovered DESPITE obama's spending.
"Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline in July (-247,000), and the unemployment rate was little changed at 9.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The average monthly job loss for May through July (-331,000) was about half the average decline for November through April (-645,000). In July, job losses continued in many of the major industry sectors."
We lost DOUBLE the amount of jobs under the last 6 months of Bush, than we did the 6 months of obama.
And we haven't even seen the results of new jobs created from the stimulus, as those are still coming.
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we will hear all about how the economy recovered DESPITE obama's spending.
"Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline in July (-247,000), and the unemployment rate was little changed at 9.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The average monthly job loss for May through July (-331,000) was about half the average decline for November through April (-645,000). In July, job losses continued in many of the major industry sectors."
We lost DOUBLE the amount of jobs under the last 6 months of Bush, than we did the 6 months of obama.
And we haven't even seen the results of new jobs created from the stimulus, as those are still coming.
They don't understand simple economic theory. Thinking the economy is going to magically recover. Economics 101 must not have been their strong point. ::)
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They don't understand simple economic theory. Thinking the economy is going to magically recover. Economics 101 must not have been their strong point. ::)
If you are so bright in economics 101 as you say, how does the unemployment rate go down while 250k more people lost their jobs?
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If you are so bright in economics 101 as you say, how does the unemployment rate go down while 250k more people lost their jobs?
How is it that you can't grasp one of the simplest and earliest taught concepts? Despite having a law degree, you seem a little slow on the uptick.
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They don't understand simple economic theory. Thinking the economy is going to magically recover. Economics 101 must not have been their strong point. ::)
the rallying cry was "we're still losing job - obama's plan failed!"
it was very short-sighted thinking. Obama said it would be late 2009, and up to 18 months before full effects are felt. Remember that Clinton got the same hate in 1993, and it was the biggest turnaround in decades - his plan worked too.
I can guarantee if unemployment had jumped to 10.1% today, the repubs here would be gloating about how "0bama" had failed.
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What will all the cry babies on here do when the economy turns around? Mass suicide? Liveleak that shit, please!
I think i will start yelling for the rest of the stimulus money that hasnt been used to be refunded, hows that sound?
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They don't understand simple economic theory. Thinking the economy is going to magically recover. Economics 101 must not have been their strong point. ::)
I'm all for being realistic. There is a lot more to this # than just "Job Losses at 247,000", that is where the cheer-leading comes in. There is a lot more to the report that is also on the BLS website and in Denningers article etc.
It is certainly a positive, no doubt about that. But there is a bit more to a "recovery" than this number. Although falling unemployment #'s and, hopefully, rising employment #'s will be the catalyst.
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They don't understand simple economic theory. Thinking the economy is going to magically recover. Economics 101 must not have been their strong point. ::)
Can you please explain to us the pro's and cons of a free market driven economy and one that is showered with bailout money and fudged accounting practices? Can you tell us how direct monetization of federal debt is good for the country?
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the rallying cry was "we're still losing job - obama's plan failed!"
it was very short-sighted thinking. Obama said it would be late 2009, and up to 18 months before full effects are felt. Remember that Clinton got the same hate in 1993, and it was the biggest turnaround in decades - his plan worked too.
I can guarantee if unemployment had jumped to 10.1% today, the repubs here would be gloating about how "0bama" had failed.
What is the "old saying" the market and economy turns around before the Govt. stimulus has a chance to take effect? I believe that to be true in this case seeing as that a tiny fraction of the money has been spent.
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How is it that you can't grasp one of the simplest and earliest taught concepts? Despite having a law degree, you seem a little slow on the uptick.
Great answer.
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New York Times
But economists cautioned that the unemployment rate had only declined because 400,000 people gave up their search for work and left the labor force.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/08/business/economy/08jobs.html?_r=1
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How is it that you can't grasp one of the simplest and earliest taught concepts? Despite having a law degree, you seem a little slow on the uptick.
AGAIN - HOW DID THE UE RATE DROP WHILE WE STILL HAD 247,000 NET JOBS LOST????????
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New York Times
But economists cautioned that the unemployment rate had only declined because 400,000 people gave up their search for work and left the labor force.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/08/business/economy/08jobs.html?_r=1
Also, Denninger points out the shift to part-time work which means people are really underemployed. This number is good in the sense that the slide is not as rapid, but the overall picture still is horrible.
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we will hear all about how the economy recovered DESPITE obama's spending.
Very true.
Lets not jump to conclusions though. The unemployment has not dropped significantly yet.
If and when it does I will give Obama full credit.
But that's a BIG if.
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Ok guys, tell me where I am wrong on this.
There were 422,000 people who left the workforce last month. Had they stayed, the unemployment rate would have been 9.6%. Those workers, now part of the discouraged who have stopped looking for work, kept the unemployed, discouraged, and underutilized rate at 16.8%, the same as last month. Since May, there are 529,000 fewer people working, and the number of people characterizing themselves as not in the labor force has swelled by 995,000. Last I heard, that was almost a million.
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these folks are going back to school. or starting their own businesses. or choosing to retire. Or just getting off unemployment.
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Starting their own businesses.....with what. Banks aren't lending. Wow....keep drinking the douchbag koolaide
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Starting their own businesses.....with what. Banks aren't lending. Wow....keep drinking the douchbag koolaide
Either way, its more spin and nonsense. The UE is not going down. The only thing I can see is that the actual numbers of people employed is down.
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Starting their own businesses.....with what. Banks aren't lending. Wow....keep drinking the douchbag koolaide
In Network Marketing, ...it doesn't require a mint to get started, ...just the will, the work ethic & elbow grease. :D
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In Network Marketing, ...it doesn't require a mint to get started, ...just the will, the work ethic & elbow grease. :D
And suckers and fools willing to pay outrageous prices for garbage products so that everyone higher up in the pyramid gets their cut from your sale.
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The bleeding issue of job loss is going doing (which is GREAT imo). However, the rate of jobs being produced is still not happening.
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And suckers and fools willing to pay outrageous prices for garbage products so that everyone higher up in the pyramid gets their cut from your sale.
QFT
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And suckers and fools willing to pay outrageous prices for garbage products so that everyone higher up in the pyramid gets their cut from your sale.
yup.
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Starting their own businesses.....with what. Banks aren't lending. Wow....keep drinking the douchbag koolaide
0Bama told me you can start the following businesses for under $1000
Airbrush Artist
Animal Registration/IDServices
Apartment Preparation Service
Arts Festival Promoter
Athletic Recruiter/Scout
Auction House
Auto Paint Touch-Up Professional
Automotive Loan Broker
Band Manager
Bankruptcy Services
Bar tending Services
Barter Systems
Blade-Sharpening Service
Boardinghouse Operator
Book Indexer
Bounty Hunter
Cake Decorator
Calligrapher
Candle Maker
Caning Specialist
Cartoonist
Child Care Referral Service
Childbirth Instructor
College Application Consultant
Comedy Writer
Commercial Plant Watering Service
Coupon Distributor
Doll Repair Service
Etiquette Adviser
First Aid/CPR Instructor
Garage Sale Coordinator
Genealogical Service (Family History Writer)
Gerontology Consultant
Graphologist
Handbill Distribution
Handyman Network
Home Schooling Consultant
Horse Trainer
Hospitality Service
Ice Sculpting
In-Home Mail Service
Incorporation Service for Businesses
Jewelry Designer
Knitting/Crocheting Lessons
Lactation Consultant
Laundry/Ironing Service
Law Library Management
Lawn Care Service
Literary Agent
Magician
Makeup Artist
Mall Promotion
Merchandise Demonstrator
Mobile Book/Magazine Distributor
Mortgage Loan Broker
Motor Vehicle Transportation
Movie Site Scout
Multilevel Marketing
Mystery Shopper
Notary Public
Nutrition Consultant
Packing/Unpacking Service
Parapsychologist
Party Planner
Personal Instructor/Fitness Trainer
Personal Menu Service
Personal Shopper
Pet Psychologist
Private Tutor
Professional Organizer
Real Estate Agent/Home Researcher
Reminder Service
Roommate Referral Service
Scanning Service
Silk Flower Arranger
Storyteller
Stress Management Counselor
Taste Tester for Food Companies
Toy Cleaning Service
Vacation Rentals Broker
Wellness Instructor
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Economist John Williams (shadowstats) debunks improving unemployment and GDP numbers 8-8-09
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Economist John Williams (shadowstats) debunks improving unemployment and GDP numbers 8-8-09
Great video. Where are all the cheerleaders now?