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Getbig Main Boards => Politics and Political Issues Board => Topic started by: Benny B on September 02, 2009, 05:49:18 PM
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GDP Forecasts: Moving on Up
The manufacturing sector is spurring changes to GDP forecasts for the third quarter, as economists start to see expect stronger growth.
At the end of July, forecasters polled by research firm Macroeconomic Advisers estimated that the value of goods and services produced by the U.S. economy would grow at a 1.6% annual rate in the current quarter, ending Sept. 30. By last week, that GDP estimate had nearly doubled to 2.9%.
Yesterday a raft of reports on the global manufacturing sector offered indications of a turnaround this quarter. And today the July factory orders report showed a 1.3% increase from the previous month, and marked the third straight month of gains.
“The gains in nondefense capital goods (excluding aircraft) orders and shipments points to rising business equipment spending in the second half of 2009 and, with factory inventories down $43.8 billion at an annual rate in July versus $63.6 billion in the second quarter, a slower pace of inventory liquidation will add to GDP growth in the third quarter,” John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros of RDQ Economics wrote in a research note.
The manufacturing sector is spurring changes to GDP forecasts for the third quarter, as economists start to see expect stronger growth.
At the end of July, forecasters polled by research firm Macroeconomic Advisers estimated that the value of goods and services produced by the U.S. economy would grow at a 1.6% annual rate in the current quarter, ending Sept. 30. By last week, that GDP estimate had nearly doubled to 2.9%.
Yesterday a raft of reports on the global manufacturing sector offered indications of a turnaround this quarter. And today the July factory orders report showed a 1.3% increase from the previous month, and marked the third straight month of gains.
“The gains in nondefense capital goods (excluding aircraft) orders and shipments points to rising business equipment spending in the second half of 2009 and, with factory inventories down $43.8 billion at an annual rate in July versus $63.6 billion in the second quarter, a slower pace of inventory liquidation will add to GDP growth in the third quarter,” John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros of RDQ Economics wrote in a research note.
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(http://s.wsj.net/media/gdp_cs_20090902130126.jpg)