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Getbig Main Boards => Politics and Political Issues Board => Topic started by: Soul Crusher on September 25, 2009, 08:21:56 AM
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But I Thought The Economy Was Improving?
The Market TickerFriday, September 25. 2009
Posted by Karl Denninger in Macro Economics at 08:42
But I Thought The Economy Was Improving?
Why is it that we're told that economic conditions are "stabilizing" and that business outlook is "improving" when even large institutions still can't pay their bills?
Classified assets rated 'substandard', 'doubtful', and 'loss,' rose to $447 billion from $163 billion in 2008.
The volume of SNCs rated 'doubtful' and 'loss' in 2009 rose almost 14-fold to $110 billion, while non-accrual loans touched $172 billion, up from $22 billion in 2008.
14-fold increase? 1,400% eh? Hmmmm....
But the real news in here is the comparison with the "headline" number:
U.S. regulators say that the level of losses from syndicated loans facing banks and other financial institutions tripled to $53 billion in 2009, due to poor underwriting standards and the continuing weakness in economic conditions.
So let's see..... we have $53 billion declared as "a loss" while more than double that much is rated "doubtful" (at best) and nearly 10 times as much is included if you count "substandard" risks as well.
Here's the obvious question - if the economy is improving and has reached a bottom, if economic activity is turning around, then why is it that we continue to see this sort of deterioration in loan performance across all sectors - consumer, mortgage, and now large commercial?
The answer is simple: The media and government are lying. Period.
Durable goods added an underline to this today, showing a decrease of 2.4%. Ex-autos durables were flat (gee, cash for clunkers hangover anyone?) Excluding defense, orders were down 2.4%.
Improvement? Where?
Shipments and new orders were also down.
But the worst news in the report was found in the non-defense new order series which decreased 7.1% in August, which is an absolute collapse.
Remember, we've heard for the entirety of the last two months that the economy is turning around, brighter skies are visible and there is a "clear bottom" in the economy.
Well, that's a lie. How do you get a near-depression-level collapse in new orders if in fact the economy is turning around and an inventory rebuilding cycle is beginning?
You don't. You can't build inventory without orders and there are no orders. Again, the CNBS pump-monkey parade led by Steve LIEsman has been at it again, and yet nowhere are you going to hear an apology for getting it wrong and sucking you in.
Looking inside the report machinery has a slight uptick in new orders, computers and electronics is down both on shipments and orders, computers in particular are collapsing including new orders which implies a REALLY AWFUL Christmas season while communications equipment looks marginally better than awful. Semiconductor shipments were down nearly 10% - one of the famous "pumping" sectors that Cramer and others have been touting for months.
Non-defense aircraft have basically disappeared (down 42 on orders?!) while non-defense capital goods in general are down 2.4% on shipments and a stunning 7.1% on new orders.
There isn't a bit of good news in here folks.
Told 'ya so!
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How is that Stimulus Bill working out for everyone?
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But the Dow Jones/ S&P is up, plus only 2.5 million jobs have been lost since the Stimulus Bill was passed. Benny Blanco said Obama has made everything better and we are on the road to recovery all because of him. The funny thing is, many on here, including yourself, have been posting facts, figures and other important information on here for a long time....yet no one ever posts on the threads. But if the Dow goes up, certain posters have an ejaculation and put up factless, drivel threads about silver linings and Obama fixing the world with his smile.
No worries people.
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The FDIC might need a bailout too but hey, who gives a shit if the insurer on bank deposits needs a bailout, that could only mean things are getting better....right?
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DOW's at 9800
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DOW's at 9800
9665 of hot air.
At least get that much right bud. :P
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9665 of hot air.
At least get that much right bud. :P
no argument there.
Still, I feel if the DOW was at 2200 today, we'd be hearing from ppl nonstop blaming obama for it. Since it's about to hit 10k, we hear the prez has no effect on the DOW.
But when Bush got it up to 14k, he rocked!
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no argument there.
Still, I feel if the DOW was at 2200 today, we'd be hearing from ppl nonstop blaming obama for it. Since it's about to hit 10k, we hear the prez has no effect on the DOW.
But when Bush got it up to 14k, he rocked!
Ofcourse he would be blamed!! Do you really think the market would have to have gone all the way down in the 2000s to correct itself? Im shocked it had to go down in the upper 6000s. And it should be surprising to everybody that it had to go down 22% after Obama was inaugurated. He inherited this recession when it was 13 months old. Don't you think there is SOME sufficeintly low stock price for investors to start putting in money again? I swear to God 240, you have incredibally misplaced optimism AND misplaced pessimism.
And Bush never got much credit for the dow getting into the 14000 range. That's because everybody was criticising him about Iraq.
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no argument there.
Still, I feel if the DOW was at 2200 today, we'd be hearing from ppl nonstop blaming obama for it. Since it's about to hit 10k, we hear the prez has no effect on the DOW.
But when Bush got it up to 14k, he rocked!
- 240 - how can you have read Crash Proof ands post garbage like this?
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no argument there.
Still, I feel if the DOW was at 2200 today, we'd be hearing from ppl nonstop blaming obama for it. Since it's about to hit 10k, we hear the prez has no effect on the DOW.
But when Bush got it up to 14k, he rocked!
QFT
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Now ur Airborne...after I point out that U could naver really have served at Benning, I guess u did some research. ::)
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- 240 - how can you have read Crash Proof ands post garbage like this?
well, now and then I post something to hear the point decimated in a major way, you know what by now ;)
I read crash-proof in the bathroom for probably 2 months, I loved it, and a lot of it is very accurate. My point was regarding the people who post here - they shit on obama because it's a rainy day, but he could cure cancer and they'd praise bush research dollars, you know?