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Getbig Main Boards => Politics and Political Issues Board => Topic started by: Benny B on October 02, 2009, 04:15:33 AM
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Assessing the GOP brand
By Brendan Nyhan
How weak is the Republican brand right now? This issue came up yesterday when a Media Matters criticized The Hill for failing to mention the GOP's poor polling numbers in a story on the 2010 elections. Similarly, I recently suggested that that the damaged Republican brand might limit the number of seats that the party picks up. But is the party really worse off than previous opposition parties at this point in the election cycle?
As a first cut at the question, I pulled all the relevant polling on approval of the party in Congresss and party favorability from the Roper iPoll database for the periods leading up to the four most recent midterms (1994, 1998, 2002, and 2006). In both cases, the results are consistent, but I'll focus on the favorability questions since Pew and CBS asked comparable questions about party favorables in each cycle.*
The overall finding is simple -- the GOP's standing relative to the Democrats on both measures is worse than any opposition party in the sample. For instance, the Pew data show that the Republicans are currently viewed more negatively than any minority party in the previous four midterms in terms of both net favorables and the difference in net favorables between parties:**
(http://www.brendan-nyhan.com/.a/6a00d83451d25c69e20120a5b0f103970b-800wi)
The CBS results (not shown) are even more dramatic. In June, when the question was most recently asked, Republican net favorables were -30% and Democratic net favorables were 25%, which swamps the comparable results from the previous cycles.
In short, there's no question that the GOP party brand is in worse shape than any opposition party in recent memory. The question, however, is whether this difference in party valence will (a) persist through next November and (b) translate into fewer GOP House seats at the polls, especially once we account for the generic Congressional ballot, which should (in principle) take much of this difference into account (see Alan Abramowitz's model, for instance). Those questions remain to be addressed.
* Also, the approval question seems to be less closely related to electoral outcomes -- for instance, disapproval of Republicans in Congress was high in September 1994.
** I chose the survey closest to the current point in the electoral cycle, though the exact date varied. Net favorables are defined as the percentage of Americans who have a favorable view of the party minus the percentage who have an unfavorable view.
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Assessing the GOP brand
By Brendan Nyhan
How weak is the Republican brand right now? This issue came up yesterday when a Media Matters criticized The Hill for failing to mention the GOP's poor polling numbers in a story on the 2010 elections. Similarly, I recently suggested that that the damaged Republican brand might limit the number of seats that the party picks up. But is the party really worse off than previous opposition parties at this point in the election cycle?
As a first cut at the question, I pulled all the relevant polling on approval of the party in Congresss and party favorability from the Roper iPoll database for the periods leading up to the four most recent midterms (1994, 1998, 2002, and 2006). In both cases, the results are consistent, but I'll focus on the favorability questions since Pew and CBS asked comparable questions about party favorables in each cycle.*
The overall finding is simple -- the GOP's standing relative to the Democrats on both measures is worse than any opposition party in the sample. For instance, the Pew data show that the Republicans are currently viewed more negatively than any minority party in the previous four midterms in terms of both net favorables and the difference in net favorables between parties:**
(http://www.brendan-nyhan.com/.a/6a00d83451d25c69e20120a5b0f103970b-800wi)
The CBS results (not shown) are even more dramatic. In June, when the question was most recently asked, Republican net favorables were -30% and Democratic net favorables were 25%, which swamps the comparable results from the previous cycles.
In short, there's no question that the GOP party brand is in worse shape than any opposition party in recent memory. The question, however, is whether this difference in party valence will (a) persist through next November and (b) translate into fewer GOP House seats at the polls, especially once we account for the generic Congressional ballot, which should (in principle) take much of this difference into account (see Alan Abramowitz's model, for instance). Those questions remain to be addressed.
* Also, the approval question seems to be less closely related to electoral outcomes -- for instance, disapproval of Republicans in Congress was high in September 1994.
** I chose the survey closest to the current point in the electoral cycle, though the exact date varied. Net favorables are defined as the percentage of Americans who have a favorable view of the party minus the percentage who have an unfavorable view.
No kidding - 47% dont even pay income taxes. No wonder that portion of the population is going to love the Dems.
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I think the biggest problem right now is that there is a growing distrust between voters and their elected officials.
The internet and the new ways of communications has opened up multiple ways of sharing information at grassroot level, and not just information, it's just as often desinformation.
However, it could become easier for the voters to hold their elected officials true, or at least they won't feel the distance the same way previous generations did.
So while the Democrats are hurting like hell, they can actually be looking to be picking up a few seats in the congress IMO in the mid-terms.
Because the GOP is doing even worse. They're completely falling apart.
Look at the whole health care issue eg.
All the Republicans are saying is: "Look at Obama, he's gonna turn this country into a Socialist state"
So lets just keep things the way they are, huh?
Do they think the majority of their Swing voters like the current health care system?
Do the Republicans really believe they will swing back voters that way, keep them from staying home? During a petty mid-term?
Please.
I'm sure plenty of the swing voters are at least starting to think right now that "At least the Democrats are trying to do something. Better something bad than nothing at all."
And if the health care reform fails, I doubt Obama or the Democrats will be punished for it. The Republicans will get all the blame in the mid-terms for it.
Right or wrong.
Republicans needs to come up with some kind of new strategy.
I think they should pull the plug on both wars, and eg push for some kind of radical school reform that would offer private schools to all kids in the USA through tax money.
Also sell all public schools to private enterprises.
Something like that.
And get behind a health care reform, or create one of their own, that isn't controlled by the health insurance corporations. That way they earn credibility.
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I think the biggest problem right now is that there is a growing distrust between voters and their elected officials.
The internet and the new ways of communications has opened up multiple ways of sharing information at grassroot level, and not just information, it's just as often desinformation.
However, it could become easier for the voters to hold their elected officials true, or at least they won't feel the distance the same way previous generations did.
So while the Democrats are hurting like hell, they can actually be looking to be picking up a few seats in the congress IMO in the mid-terms.
Because the GOP is doing even worse. They're completely falling apart.
Look at the whole health care issue eg.
All the Republicans are saying is: "Look at Obama, he's gonna turn this country into a Socialist state"
So lets just keep things the way they are, huh?
Do they think the majority of their Swing voters like the current health care system?
Do the Republicans really believe they will swing back voters that way, keep them from staying home? During a petty mid-term?
Please.
I'm sure plenty of the swing voters are at least starting to think right now that "At least the Democrats are trying to do something. Better something bad than nothing at all."
And if the health care reform fails, I doubt Obama or the Democrats will be punished for it. The Republicans will get all the blame in the mid-terms for it.
Right or wrong.
Republicans needs to come up with some kind of new strategy.
I think they should pull the plug on both wars, and eg push for some kind of radical school reform that would offer private schools to all kids in the USA through tax money.
Also sell all public schools to private enterprises.
Something like that.
And get behind a health care reform, or create one of their own, that isn't controlled by the health insurance corporations. That way they earn credibility.
Post of the week.
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Hedge- you are 110% incorrect.
Americans are fickle, impatient and are very name brand concious.
If healthcare reform fails the democrats will take the blame.
If the economy continues to falter the democrats will take the blame.
If things in Afghanistan do not improve, the democrats will take the blame.
If you examine the midterm election projections, the dems are poised to lose the majority of their seats.
The backlash the republican Congress experienced will now be experienced by the dems and the backlash experienced by the GOP brand as a result of GW will be felt by the dems because of Obama.
Politics in this country are cylical in nature. Right now the ball is in the democrats court. If they fail to deliver, the GOP will make a lot of headway.
If you look throughout the USA's history, it has always been this way.
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Hedge- you are 110% incorrect.
Americans are fickle, impatient and are very name brand concious.
If healthcare reform fails the democrats will take the blame.
If the economy continues to falter the democrats will take the blame.
If things in Afghanistan do not improve, the democrats will take the blame.
If you examine the midterm election projections, the dems are poised to lose the majority of their seats.
The backlash the republican Congress experienced will now be experienced by the dems and the backlash experienced by the GOP brand as a result of GW will be felt by the dems because of Obama.
Politics in this country are cylical in nature. Right now the ball is in the democrats court. If they fail to deliver, the GOP will make a lot of headway.
If you look throughout the USA's history, it has always been this way.
EXACTAMUNDO!!!
Whenever there's a crisis, the reigning party in power takes a beating.
Certain liberals have deluded themselves into thinking that, no matter how badly the Dems screw up, the people will pick them, because the GOP folks are supposedly even worse.
But, that ain't the way the game is played.
They forget that they were in the same position just a few years ago The ball, if you will, was in the GOP's court (gains in the Senate, gains in the House, and Bush's re-election). But, they acted a fool and got dropped in 2006.
The real estate and economic woes hit, along with ungodly gas prices, and the beatings continued for Republicans in 2008.
But, the pain is coming to the Democrats, if they keep screwing around with the big issues of the day.
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The Democrats didnt win in 2006. The Republicans lost it. Now, the Republicans arent winning in 2010, the Democrats are losing. If you arent salivating to get Republicans back into Congress even now, you deserve what you are getting today.
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We need to raise the voting age back up to 21 for non military members. We need to require non military members to pay atleast 5% of your income in federal taxes to vote for President and Congress, and we need to requre non military members to have voted in the last off year election in order to vote for President. That will help keep trainwrecks like Obama from winning the Presidency again.
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We need to raise the voting age back up to 21 for non military members. We need to require non military members to pay atleast 5% of your income in federal taxes to vote for President and Congress, and we need to requre non military members to have voted in the last off year election in order to vote for President. That will help keep trainwrecks like Obama from winning the Presidency again.
Why not stop voting rights at age 80 as well?
It could be argued that people that old are jsut as uninformed or of as limited mental capacity as a person who is 20 years old.
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EXACTAMUNDO!!!
Whenever there's a crisis, the reigning party in power takes a beating.
Certain liberals have deluded themselves into thinking that, no matter how badly the Dems screw up, the people will pick them, because the GOP folks are supposedly even worse.
But, that ain't the way the game is played.
They forget that they were in the same position just a few years ago The ball, if you will, was in the GOP's court (gains in the Senate, gains in the House, and Bush's re-election). But, they acted a fool and got dropped in 2006.
The real estate and economic woes hit, along with ungodly gas prices, and the beatings continued for Republicans in 2008.
But, the pain is coming to the Democrats, if they keep screwing around with the big issues of the day.
Indeed, the pain is coming!
Well said, MCWAY!
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The Democrats didnt win in 2006. The Republicans lost it.
I think that's true.
But as much as I think that Democrats will be losing voters in mid terms, I don't see Republicans gaining any grounds.
Anyone here do that?
George is making a totally different analysis than I do.
He may be right and I am totally off.
I think Republicans need to do something new to attract swing voters to vote. JMO
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I think that's true.
But as much as I think that Democrats will be losing voters in mid terms, I don't see Republicans gaining any grounds.
Anyone here do that?
George is making a totally different analysis than I do.
He may be right and I am totally off.
I think Republicans need to do something new to attract swing voters to vote. JMO
The Democrats are REPELLING swing voters; and, if they keep this up, they're in BIG trouble.
This healthcare thing is a prime example. They are basically doing (or attempting to do) what that filmmaker guy did to that then-13-year-old-girl decades ago: Slip the electorate a mickey, sodomize them out of their tax dollars (among other things) and flee the scene to live it up, while leaving the victim in shambles to pick up the pieces.
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so mcway, you expect a pretty easy victory for the Republicans then? could you give me some ballpark estimate on how the nationwide percentage will be? 60-40?
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so mcway, you expect a pretty easy victory for the Republicans then? could you give me some ballpark estimate on how the nationwide percentage will be? 60-40?
I wouldn't say an easy victory. And, as stated earlier, the Democrats better get their act together to avoid the beating that may come.
Did you think the Dems would gain power in 2006, after what went down in 2004?
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Both parties are in shambles with no real leadership or solutions. Raising taxes and spending more not a solution to me
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Did you think the Dems would gain power in 2006, after what went down in 2004?
good question.
the democrats were pretty much outmaneuvered by Rove imo. He dictated the agenda. Managed to question Kerry's Record in Vietnam. that was brilliant.
also kept focus on issues like abortion and war on terror instead of economy or social problems in the cities like segregation and gangs
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The republicans are not doing a good job...its that the democrats are doing a bad job. Obama has let the far left push their priorities, even during a recession. Its a smaller % of the country that believes in big government and quasi-socialistic policies.
Things will be better in 2010 when there is more balance in the congress that forces bipartisan efforts to get things done. Obama may shine more as a mediator. He isn't bringing anyone together right now.
Republicans have it easy now because the dems are out of touch with middle America. All they need to do is preach fiscal responsibility, economic growth, help to small business and less gov spending/smaller gov and they will win. Instead, they are not coming together under a clear coherent message. I guess the press isn't helping either though.
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good question.
the democrats were pretty much outmaneuvered by Rove imo. He dictated the agenda. Managed to question Kerry's Record in Vietnam. that was brilliant.
also kept focus on issues like abortion and war on terror instead of economy or social problems in the cities like segregation and gangs
You forgot the gay "marriage" thing. But, the liberals sure didn't!!
;D
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The republicans are not doing a good job...its that the democrats are doing a bad job. Obama has let the far left push their priorities, even during a recession. Its a smaller % of the country that believes in big government and quasi-socialistic policies.
Things will be better in 2010 when there is more balance in the congress that forces bipartisan efforts to get things done. Obama may shine more as a mediator. He isn't bringing anyone together right now.
Republicans have it easy now because the dems are out of touch with middle America. All they need to do is preach fiscal responsibility, economic growth, help to small business and less gov spending/smaller gov and they will win. Instead, they are not coming together under a clear coherent message. I guess the press isn't helping either though.
this is what needs to be done, they dont need a figure head, the dont need a leader, they need a clear message they all can get behind...
the whole nobody is leading the GOP and they need a leader is a liberal media tactic in order to tear that person down and make the GOP look bad.
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We need to raise the voting age back up to 21 for non military members. We need to require non military members to pay atleast 5% of your income in federal taxes to vote for President and Congress, and we need to requre non military members to have voted in the last off year election in order to vote for President. That will help keep trainwrecks like Obama from winning the Presidency again.
So you're basically against democracy?
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We have to be pro-democracy. As far as voting, if more and more people are exempt from taxes, how can we have an honest judgement about government taxation? Those people have no incentive to balance gov spending vs personal income.
I think everyone over the poverty line should have to pay some small % of income in taxation. Now they have skin in the game when decisions are made about how the government is spending our $. I would support the voting public being people who pay income and property taxes. Or scrap the whole IRS and put a flat tax on non-utility goods & services (again people under the poverty line can be exempt).
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You forgot the gay "marriage" thing. But, the liberals sure didn't!!
;D
Yes of course! they were able to tie up the gay issue to voting day. very clever.
One of the funniest and dumbest fuckups in recent political history when the Democrats somehow believed their own gay lobby. 8)
Too bad the world had to pay for it with a second term of Bush and the crook Cheney.
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this is what needs to be done, they dont need a figure head, the dont need a leader, they need a clear message they all can get behind...
the whole nobody is leading the GOP and they need a leader is a liberal media tactic in order to tear that person down and make the GOP look bad.
Indeed!!
First, it was Limbaugh; next, it was the tea party guys; now, it's Fox News (Glenn Beck, in particular).
And, they're still taking shots at Palin.
This is (as you said) their attempt to tell the people that, no matter how badly they screw up, the GOP is worse.
Look at healthcare for example. The cry from liberals is that the Republicans don't have a plan. Well, assuming that's true, their not having a plan doesn't excuse the fact that the Dems' plan is an utterly STUPID (and extremely expensive) one.
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Yes of course! they were able to tie up the gay issue to voting day. very clever.
One of the funniest and dumbest fuckups in recent political history when the Democrats somehow believed their own gay lobby. 8)
Too bad the world had to pay for it with a second term of Bush and the crook Cheney.
I did read one political commentator's statement, claiming that, if the US Supreme Court was responsible for Bush's first term, the Mass. Supreme Court might be responsible for Bush's second term.
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Many republicans had ideas and plans on healthcare, the truth is they were shut down because they don't have the votes in congress to get those ammendments on board.
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We have to be pro-democracy. As far as voting, if people more and more people are exempt from taxes, how can we have an honest judgement about government taxation? Those people have no incentive to balance gov spending vs personal income.
I think everyone over the poverty line should have to pay some small % of income in taxation. Now they have skin in the game when decisions are made about how the government is spending our $. I would support the voting public being people who pay income and property taxes. Or scrap the whole IRS and put a flat tax on non-utility goods & services (again people under the poverty line can be exempt).
But aren't you against taxation? I mean everytime there is a tax increase you complain.
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Many republicans had ideas and plans on healthcare, the truth is they were shut down because they don't have the votes in congress to get those ammendments on board.
That can be fixed in 2010. Of course, it would help if the GOP actually brings their plans to the forefront. They might next year. Timing is everything, in politics.
But, as long as the Dems keep trying to pull a Polanski on the people, they will continue to flounder and may suffer the consequences in 2010.
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Lets do an honest analysis here-- America was never better off in the past 10-15 years as when we had Bill Clinton as prez and an overwhelming Republican controlled Congress.
Maybe, just maybe, when the same thing happens over the next few months, things will improve under Obama.
Hedge, what you are reffering to ( I think) is how the country may respond in the next presidential election. Your opinion may or may not be correct, as it is too soon to tell. However, my point is that when looking at US history the same story usually unfolds. The country gives one party a lot of power, that party either does well for a while and screws up or messes things up right away... and then the country turns around and gives all the power back to the other party.
Its a see-saw. Right now, the democrats have all the power and are making things worse while alienating the country in the process. The American peoples response will be typical-- The republicans will be given more and more power. If by the 2012 election, Obama has not made things better, the country will vote in a republican. Now, theres a lot of time between now and then-- However, the GOP brand doesn't have to become substantially better. The republicans just need the democrats brand to keep getting worse.
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Lets do an honest analysis here-- America was never better off in the past 10-15 years as when we had Bill Clinton as prez and an overwhelming Republican controlled Congress.
Maybe, just maybe, when the same thing happens over the next few months, things will improve under Obama.
Hedge, what you are reffering to ( I think) is how the country may respond in the next presidential election. Your opinion may or may not be correct, as it is too soon to tell. However, my point is that when looking at US history the same story usually unfolds. The country gives one party a lot of power, that party either does well for a while and screws up or messes things up right away... and then the country turns around and gives all the power back to the other party.
Its a see-saw. Right now, the democrats have all the power and are making things worse while alienating the country in the process. The American peoples response will be typical-- The republicans will be given more and more power. If by the 2012 election, Obama has not made things better, the country will vote in a republican. Now, theres a lot of time between now and then-- However, the GOP brand doesn't have to become substantially better. The republicans just need the democrats brand to keep getting worse.
In other words, if the Dems are hell-bent on shooting themselves in the feet, "Praise the Lord and pass the ammunition!!"
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Amen! ;D
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I know George. and typically i would agree with you.
but here in Sweden we have the similar situation with an election coming up next year.
the unemployment is rising and people are pissed.
also the opposition, the social democrats, is traditionally thought of as stronger on job issues.
Yet they fail to dominate in the polls.
why?
because they're doing even worse themselves. terrible leadership et al.
and i think the same could happen in the usa.
it remains to be seen.
lot of time left.
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kc, I believe most of us pay far too much in taxation already and those of us who play by the rules get screwed...so I am almost always against increases in taxation. I'm not against taxation, as I understand some government services and infrastructure is absolutely necessary. But taxation was never intended to fund the irresponsible gov spending we see.
I never knew how hard it was on small business until I opened my own general practice medical clinic. They take nearly 40% of all income we bring in. I struggled my as- off to take this risk, get loans, hire a few employees and work harder. Nothing the gov is currently doing is worth taking 40% of my business' income. (Our city also added a 2% RITA tax recently). Small business built this country and employs most of our people. We have the second highest rate of taxation in the world and wonder why so many small businesses are struggling. Government can't grow the economy, business can.
When you really look at all taxes, you begin to appreciate how much of your income is really being taken away. Between federal, local, state, RITA, property, excise taxes, estate taxes, sales tax...its crazy. The bottom line is that our government spends too much money and has increased its power and spending in the last couple decades. We the people must demand fiscal responsibility and put a limit on our own government. We can't trust the politicians to be good stewards of our tax dollars, not with the recent abuses.
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I would be open to a VAT tax or flat tax across the board for people above the poverty level if it replaced our current system, which is cumbersome, costly and easy for some to cheat.
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BUMP
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LOL. That benny guy sure is an idiot.
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Post of the week.
True
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I think the biggest problem right now is that there is a growing distrust between voters and their elected officials.
The internet and the new ways of communications has opened up multiple ways of sharing information at grassroot level, and not just information, it's just as often desinformation.
However, it could become easier for the voters to hold their elected officials true, or at least they won't feel the distance the same way previous generations did.
So while the Democrats are hurting like hell, they can actually be looking to be picking up a few seats in the congress IMO in the mid-terms.
Because the GOP is doing even worse. They're completely falling apart.
Look at the whole health care issue eg.
All the Republicans are saying is: "Look at Obama, he's gonna turn this country into a Socialist state"
So lets just keep things the way they are, huh?
Do they think the majority of their Swing voters like the current health care system?
Do the Republicans really believe they will swing back voters that way, keep them from staying home? During a petty mid-term?
Please.
I'm sure plenty of the swing voters are at least starting to think right now that "At least the Democrats are trying to do something. Better something bad than nothing at all."
And if the health care reform fails, I doubt Obama or the Democrats will be punished for it. The Republicans will get all the blame in the mid-terms for it.
Right or wrong.
Republicans needs to come up with some kind of new strategy.
I think they should pull the plug on both wars, and eg push for some kind of radical school reform that would offer private schools to all kids in the USA through tax money.
Also sell all public schools to private enterprises.
Something like that.
And get behind a health care reform, or create one of their own, that isn't controlled by the health insurance corporations. That way they earn credibility.
HEHEHEHE!!! Do you still believe this nonsense?
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Lets do an honest analysis here-- America was never better off in the past 10-15 years as when we had Bill Clinton as prez and an overwhelming Republican controlled Congress.
Maybe, just maybe, when the same thing happens over the next few months, things will improve under Obama.
Hedge, what you are reffering to ( I think) is how the country may respond in the next presidential election. Your opinion may or may not be correct, as it is too soon to tell. However, my point is that when looking at US history the same story usually unfolds. The country gives one party a lot of power, that party either does well for a while and screws up or messes things up right away... and then the country turns around and gives all the power back to the other party.
Its a see-saw. Right now, the democrats have all the power and are making things worse while alienating the country in the process. The American peoples response will be typical-- The republicans will be given more and more power. If by the 2012 election, Obama has not made things better, the country will vote in a republican. Now, theres a lot of time between now and then-- However, the GOP brand doesn't have to become substantially better. The republicans just need the democrats brand to keep getting worse.
BUMP for me being a genius. Some of you idiots should dig up all of my threads from 2009 and pay close attention. So far, every single thing I predicted thus far has happened. Stay tuned for what happens next fuckers. ;D
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Krauthhammer - obama agenda is DOA
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2010/11/03/charles_krauthammer_obama_agenda_is_dead.html