Getbig.com: American Bodybuilding, Fitness and Figure
Getbig Main Boards => Politics and Political Issues Board => Topic started by: Al Doggity on November 24, 2009, 10:17:28 AM
-
WASHINGTON — Now that unemployment has topped 10 percent, some liberal-leaning economists see confirmation of their warnings that the $787 billion stimulus package President Obama signed into law last February was way too small. The economy needs a second big infusion, they say.
No, some conservative-leaning economists counter, we were right: The package has been wasteful, ineffectual and even harmful to the extent that it adds to the nation’s debt and crowds out private-sector borrowing.
These long-running arguments have flared now that the White House and Congressional leaders are talking about a new “jobs bill.” But with roughly a quarter of the stimulus money out the door after nine months, the accumulation of hard data and real-life experience has allowed more dispassionate analysts to reach a consensus that the stimulus package, messy as it is, is working.
The legislation, a variety of economists say, is helping an economy in free fall a year ago to grow again and shed fewer jobs than it otherwise would. Mr. Obama’s promise to “save or create” about 3.5 million jobs by the end of 2010 is roughly on track, though far more jobs are being saved than created, especially among states and cities using their money to avoid cutting teachers, police officers and other workers.
“It was worth doing — it’s made a difference,” said Nigel Gault, chief economist at IHS Global Insight, a financial forecasting and analysis group based in Lexington, Mass.
Mr. Gault added: “I don’t think it’s right to look at it by saying, ‘Well, the economy is still doing extremely badly, therefore the stimulus didn’t work.’ I’m afraid the answer is, yes, we did badly but we would have done even worse without the stimulus.”
In interviews, a broad range of economists said the White House and Congress were right to structure the package as a mix of tax cuts and spending, rather than just tax cuts as Republicans prefer or just spending as many Democrats do. And it is fortuitous, many say, that the money gets doled out over two years — longer for major construction — considering the probable length of the “jobless recovery” under way as wary employers hold off on new hiring.
But there are criticisms, mainly that the Obama team relied last winter on overly optimistic economic assumptions and oversold the job-creating benefits of the stimulus package.
Optimistic assumptions in turn contributed to producing a package that if anything is too small, analysts say. “The economy was weaker than we thought at the time, so maybe in retrospect we could have used a little bit more and little bit more front-loaded,” said Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, another financial analysis group, in St. Louis.
While some conservatives remain as skeptical as ever that big increases in government spending give the economy a jolt that is worth the cost, Martin Feldstein, a conservative Harvard economist who served in the Reagan administration, said the problem with the package was that some of its tax cuts and spending programs were of a variety that did little to spur the economy.
“There should have been more direct federal spending that would have added to aggregate demand,” he said. “Temporary tax cuts and one-time transfers to seniors were largely saved and didn’t stimulate spending.”
Even the $787 billion price tag overstates the plan’s stimulus value given changes made in Congress, economists say. Nearly a tenth of the package, $70 billion, comes from a provision adjusting the alternative minimum tax so it does not hit middle-income taxpayers this year. That routine fix, which would do nothing to stimulate the economy, was added in part to seek Republican votes. But to keep the package’s overall cost down, provisions that would stimulate the economy — like aid to revenue-starved states and infrastructure projects — got less as a result.
Among Democrats in the White House and Congress, “there was a considerable amount of hand-wringing that it was too small, and I sympathized with that argument,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Economy.com and an occasional adviser to lawmakers.
Even so, “the stimulus is doing what it was supposed to do — it is contributing to ending the recession,” he added, citing the economy’s third-quarter expansion by a 3.5 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate. “In my view, without the stimulus, G.D.P. would still be negative and unemployment would be firmly over 11 percent. And there are a little over 1.1 million more jobs out there as of October than would have been out there without the stimulus.”
Politically, however, the president is saddled with his original claim that, with the stimulus, the jobless rate would peak at 8.1 percent — a miscalculation that Republicans constantly recall. While the administration has said its economic assumptions were in line with private forecasts, most of which also underestimated the recession’s punch, it was more optimistic than most.
“That was a mistake,” said Jeffrey A. Frankel, a Harvard University economist and former Clinton administration official who is a member of the National Bureau of Economic Research panel that judges when recessions start and end. “I thought so at the time.”
Christina D. Romer, chairwoman of Mr. Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, said attention to that too-rosy projection “prevents people from focusing on the positive impact of the fiscal stimulus. So of course I find that frustrating.”
Much federal infrastructure money has gone not to new job-creating projects but to finance existing plans, which otherwise would be unaffordable to states.
So the stimulus has not “supercharged” transportation construction as was hoped, said Charles Gallagher, an asphalt company owner, speaking for the American Road and Transportation Builders Association, but it has nonetheless been “a welcome Band-Aid” to offset state cuts.
“Many contractors across the nation have been able to sustain, if not add to, their work force,” he said.
That sort of impact is what makes federal aid to state governments rank high in economists’ reckoning of the stimulus value of various proposals. Every dollar of additional infrastructure spending means $1.57 in economic activity, according to Moody’s, and general aid to states carries a $1.41 “bang” for each federal buck.
Even more effective are increases for food stamps ($1.74) and unemployment checks ($1.61), because recipients quickly spend their benefits on goods and services.
By contrast, most temporary tax cuts cost more than the stimulus they provide, according to research by Moody’s. That is true of two tax breaks in the stimulus law that Congress, pressed by industry lobbyists, recently extended and sweetened — a tax credit for homebuyers (90 cents of stimulus for each dollar of tax subsidy) and extra deductions for businesses’ net operating losses (21 cents).
Economists said Republicans’ recent proposals to rescind unspent money would be a mistake.
James Glassman, a senior economist at JPMorgan Chase & Company, said: “If we could be absolutely convinced that the growth we’re getting is for reasons beyond the help the government is giving, then that would make sense. But the fact is we can’t be certain of that.”
-
Obama asked for 18 months.
-
This article really didnt give any reasoning behind the way they feel ::)
-
This article gave multiple reasons- among them the fact that the aid allowed many project to go forward that would have otherwise been cut.
-
This article gave multiple reasons- among them the fact that the aid allowed many project to go forward that would have otherwise been cut.
Yeah, and the job numbers have been flubbed and that states who received stim money used it to pay bills in medicare and others like internal payroll. The unemployment rate is about 10%, but is actually 17% when you include those people who lost jobs but either found part time work, or stopped looking at all. So, billions later, the econ. is still in the tank. But Mr. O says he brought it back from the brink. He says we need to do the same thing about a broken healthcare system. Hurry hurry hurry!! Yet, he takes months to figure out what he's going to do in Afghanistan. We can't even SAY terrorists... He needed to play 56 rounds of golf, now eat some turkey while 12 troops died yesterday and NOW we need to wait for Tuesday in dec to hear mr superstar to tell us what he is going to do. Imagine if Bush did this?? Bush had his own stim package and I did not agree with that so before you go and say I am a party player I am not. Bush spent a ton of money and I didn't agree with that. Let them fail. F-EM! But he never sold us out like Obama has. Tripling debt and now driving us into a socialist state. This is rediculous, and according to 43% approval ratings, he is a one hit wonder. Just hope he doesn't do too much damage that can't be fixed.
-
the only people the commies stimulous bill worked for is AIG, some of the unions, ( corrupt ones) and half the banks and financial institutes( corrupt ones, or the ones that were too stupid to do good business and shoulda failed anyway). You call that working??? OH and dont let me forget, it helped out GMC ( government motors corp.)
-
the only people the commies stimulous bill worked for is AIG, some of the unions, ( corrupt ones) and half the banks and financial institutes( corrupt ones, or the ones that were too stupid to do good business and shoulda failed anyway). You call that working??? OH and dont let me forget, it helped out GMC ( government motors corp.)
Al: GMAFB!
The stimulus bill is a disaster and has not worked.
-
He was at about 48 on Gallup last week, and that's not exactly insurmountable. Clinton and Reagan both experienced lower during their first terms- and both numbers coincided with recessions.
You can feel any way you want to feel about the stimulus or Bush, but more and more observers are objectively saying it worked on a significant level. There was a report out not too long ago analyzing the real unemployment numbers and it was interesting how this recession isn't like most recessions. The actual job loss rate is not that great in comparison to all recent recessions, but the hiring freeze is where employment problems stem from.
-
The stimulous has not created ONE job.NOT ONE!!!!All it did was reward unions and government PERIOD!!!You want to stimulate the economy,a one year elimination of pay roll taxes.However,that wont happen because the little community organiser knows best.
-
Al: GMAFB!
The stimulus bill is a disaster and has not worked.
The bill is far from a disaster. It hasn't worked quite like Obama claimed it would, but over the months, even you have admitted that your clients are reacting differently in regards to surplus. Technology has given businesses ways to be more nimble, which is a good thing, but it's harder to predict how they will react.
-
Tell the 1 in 5 Americans unemployed or underemployed that the stimulus worked
-
The stimulous has not created ONE job.NOT ONE!!!!All it did was reward unions and government PERIOD!!!
These are the ramblings of a crazy man. Even if you don't believe the stimulus was effective, it has definitively created some jobs. If has definitively saved others.
You want to stimulate the economy,a one year elimination of pay roll taxes.However,that wont happen because the little community organiser knows best.
Nooo... surely, you know better.
-
Tell the 1 in 5 Americans unemployed or underemployed that the stimulus worked
The point of the article is that that rate would have been even higher without it.
-
The bill is far from a disaster. It hasn't worked quite like Obama claimed it would, but over the months, even you have admitted that your clients are reacting differently in regards to surplus. Technology has given businesses ways to be more nimble, which is a good thing, but it's harder to predict how they will react.
Al: Here is my problem. You live in NY like me. The stimulus bill has been used to close budget holes and keep govt jobs going. So, if the economy does not improve and tax receipts dont imprve, then what? Those jobs are gone anyway, but the debt remains forever for future generations to pay.
We need sustainable long termprivate jobs in manufacturing, production, tech, etc, not govt and health care etc.
There are plans to re-build the Tappan Zee Bridge. Why could they use the stim bill for that? This thing was really wrongly headed IMHO.
-
"Saved" jobs? How does one measure saved jobs? Yet another new term created to make things seem better than they are.
-
The point of the article is that that rate would have been even higher without it.
Do they have a crystal ball? Are they psychic? Omnipotent or all of the above? How do they know if they just let the market and bad business fail that we wouldn't be in better shape now?
-
Do they have a crystal ball? Are they psychic? Omnipotent or all of the above? How do they know if they just let the market and bad business fail that we wouldn't be in better shape now?
Exactly, many businesses wont hire people now BECAUSE of the uncertainty of what their costs will be to pay for all of these programs.
-
"Saved" jobs? How does one measure saved jobs? Yet another new term created to make things seem better than they are.
Like 333 says in the post above yours, the stim bill has been used to close budget gaps and keep govt jobs going. The only thing is that it was a lot further reaching than just gov't jobs and even public works jobs. You don't need a crystal ball to figure that out. The fact that that happened is not up for debate.
-
Exactly, many businesses wont hire people now BECAUSE of the uncertainty of what their costs will be to pay for all of these programs.
Hiring has been stalled since the middle of last year, before the stimulus bill was passed.
-
the only jobs this bill created were more government jobs which helps tax payers in no way , and it created a few dozen jobs at min wage that only lasted a week or 2 !! oooooo thats realy worth the price tag huh???
-
Hiring has been stalled since the middle of last year, before the stimulus bill was passed.
Al: If the economy does not improve and tax receipts are still down, what do we do? Even Paterson is calling for massive cuts in NY because he knows the stim money wont be there next year, yet the costs will.
The stim bill merely kicked the can down the road a little bit on a gamble that the consumer would start spending again.
-
I believe the stimulus has helped some...at least prevented a worse trough. My arguement is similar to 333s...many of these jobs are temporary, many gov jobs, too much given to unions, too much pork given to BS projects, not enough to help small businesses who create jobs, the concept of a "saved job" is wobbly and the incredible added cost to the deficit only produced a marginal return. Not to mention we are still loosing jobs.
This analysis is assuming the reported # of jobs saved & created is accurate, which is already proven false. Unemployment is also underestimated.
-
the only jobs this bill created were more government jobs which helps tax payers in no way , and it created a few dozen jobs at min wage that only lasted a week or 2 !! oooooo thats realy worth the price tag huh???
It really didnt create jobs as it just kept existing things going for a little longer.
-
I believe people that were cut from full time to part time are not accounted for...or even counted as a job saved. The more the gov alters the "jobs saved or created" #s, the more people can say the stimulus worked...though it's misleading.
Many complained about the "jobs saved or created" definition when they announced the stimulus, and for good reason.
-
Al: If the economy does not improve and tax receipts are still down, what do we do? Even Paterson is calling for massive cuts in NY because he knows the stim money wont be there next year, yet the costs will.
The stim bill merely kicked the can down the road a little bit on a gamble that the consumer would start spending again.
That's exactly what it was meant to do.
It was a stimulus bill- meant to stimulate the economy quickly with an infusion of cash. The economy is cyclical and has to recover at some point.
-
That's exactly what it was meant to do.
It was a stimulus bill- meant to stimulate the economy quickly with an infusion of cash. The economy is cyclical and has to recover at some point.
It is "supposed to". But what if it doesnt in the time frame they projected? These people will be laid off anyway, yet we will still have the massive debt and deficits to deal with in the form of higher taxes later, a devalued dollar, etc.
-
It really didnt create jobs as it just kept existing things going for a little longer.
Not true. There were definitely some jobs created. Even if all it did was keep existing things going for a little longer, then it was effective.
-
well the government coulda left small businesses alone and things woulda lasted longer, but no, lets charge the tax payers 787 billion to do what we coulda done on our own !! hmmmmm that must be that harvard education thing working uhh hh ummm umm uh um uh um dont you think?
-
Not true. There were definitely some jobs created. Even if all it did was keep existing things going for a little longer, then it was effective.
It was ALSO supposed to keep unemployment under 8 percent. It's at 10.2 percent......AND CLIMBING!!!
NOT EFFECTIVE!!!
-
It is "supposed to". But what if it doesnt in the time frame they projected? These people will be laid off anyway, yet we will still have the massive debt and deficits to deal with in the form of higher taxes later, a devalued dollar, etc.
That's preferable to a two year run of UE at 30%.
-
That's preferable to a two year run of UE at 30%.
We are heading there regardless AL. We are at 17.5% now.
-
It was ALSO supposed to keep unemployment under 8 percent. It's at 10.2 percent......AND CLIMBING!!!
NOT EFFECTIVE!!!
It would have undoubtedly been hire without it. It didn't work as advertised, but we have done better with it than without.
-
We are heading there regardless AL. We are at 17.5% now.
That's not a given.
-
It would have undoubtedly been hire without it. It didn't work as advertised, but we have done better with it than without.
Maybe so Al, but now that we have this massive debt to pay off, the real recovery will be delayed even that much longer since young people will have to pay higher taxes forever, deal with a horrible economy, and purchase goods with a dollar that is worthless.
-
Maybe so Al, but now that we have this massive debt to pay off, the real recovery will be delayed even that much longer since young people will have to pay higher taxes forever, deal with a horrible economy, and purchase goods with a dollar that is worthless.
Theoretically possibly, in practice, no. Once the employment rate begins to rise, that is the only recovery most will care about. Paying down the debt is ostensibly a completely separate issue.
-
We need sustainable long termprivate jobs in manufacturing, production, tech, etc, not govt and health care etc.
I just wanted to come back to this. States dependent on manufacturing and production jobs have been hardest hit.
-
These are the ramblings of a crazy man. Even if you don't believe the stimulus was effective, it has definitively created some jobs. If has definitively saved others.
Nooo... surely, you know better.
Where?Please tell me which PERMANENT jobs it created.Dont give me a fucking summer job that lasated 3 months.Which permanent jobs has the stimulous created.Then please explain how measure a "saved job" Ive NEVER heard that statistic until the little community organiser got in there.
-
I just wanted to come back to this. States dependent on manufacturing and production jobs have been hardest hit.
Yeah, because those jobs are off shored and gone. Education and Health Care are not sustainable since most of those costs rely on tax dollars. We need private sector jobs that create private sector wealth and capital.
-
you know a liberal/commie wont answer a direct question , you should expect to hear what their commie leader does, ummm umm uhhh uhh uhh uhh uhh uhh um uhh um mm uhh um um um uhhh
-
Yeah, because those jobs are off shored and gone. Education and Health Care are not sustainable since most of those costs rely on tax dollars. We need private sector jobs that create private sector wealth and capital.
No because those jobs are historically the most unstable during a recession. When the housing market tanks, no one is going to start building houses. When people are pinching their pennies, manufactured goods take a hit.
Yes we do need private sector jobs that create private sector wealth. The stimulus money was spread around. A lot was funneled into small businesses. Government projects are overwhelmingly performed by the private sector.
-
No because those jobs are historically the most unstable during a recession. When the housing market tanks, no one is going to start building houses. When people are pinching their pennies, manufactured goods take a hit.
Yes we do need private sector jobs that create private sector wealth. The stimulus money was spread around. A lot was funneled into small businesses. Government projects are overwhelmingly performed by the private sector.
Have you paid attention to the UE rate going up up up?
I'm talking about mfg consumer and commercial goods like appliances, tech, industrial, etc. We cant have a real economy where tons of people are all in health care, education, and govt.
-
No one is advocating that. Stimulus money went to farmers, builders, grocery stores, truckers, small manufacturers, etc.
But once again, the stimulus was not meant to be a building block for the economy. It's purpose was to create a quick stimulation.
-
This article gave multiple reasons- among them the fact that the aid allowed many project to go forward that would have otherwise been cut.
LOL saying it doesnt make it so, perhaps I should have said it doesnt back up one thing it said with facts...just opinions
-
LOL saying it doesnt make it so, perhaps I should have said it doesnt back up one thing it said with facts...just opinions
Where have you been? Don't you know opinion is the new fact
-
Where have you been? Don't you know opinion is the new fact
-
LOL saying it doesnt make it so, perhaps I should have said it doesnt back up one thing it said with facts...just opinions
Yes, but the fact that that is what happened does make it so.
333 even posted an article not too long ago about how poor the satistics keeping was for the stimulus money, and even amidst that the authors acknowledged the benefits of the stimulus.
-
Yes, but the fact that that is what happened does make it so.
333 even posted an article not too long ago about how poor the satistics keeping was for the stimulus money, and even amidst that the authors acknowledged the benefits of the stimulus.
Al - there may be some temporary benefit. However, to me at least, the long term debt, lack of infrastructure spending, and lack of real permanent private sector jobs, makes this thing a waste of money in my mind considering the long term ramifications we discussed.
-
Yes, but the fact that that is what happened does make it so.
333 even posted an article not too long ago about how poor the satistics keeping was for the stimulus money, and even amidst that the authors acknowledged the benefits of the stimulus.
LOL bro I dont think anybody can dispute the fact it has created some jobs etc...like the 1.5 million spent to create 3 jobs in dallas. ::)
as far as saving companies and jobs there is no way of knowing those numbers.
Face it doggity the stimulus hasnt lived up to the hype even if it creates jobs if there is a net loss as in 1.5 mill to create 3 jobs ::) it wasnt a good move and wasnt worth it...
-
Al - there may be some temporary benefit. However, to me at least, the long term debt, lack of infrastructure spending, and lack of real permanent private sector jobs, makes this thing a waste of money in my mind considering the long term ramifications we discussed.
I think you misunderstand the goal of the bill.
Incidentally, there was actually a good deal of infrastructure spending- most of it was in the form of repairs, not new construction. Earlier you asked why the new Tappan Zee couldn't have been built with stiim funds. If the plans for it were finished and ready to go, it would have been eligible.
How do you think the administration should have gone about creating long term permanent jobs in the private sector?
-
LOL bro I dont think anybody can dispute the fact it has created some jobs etc...like the 1.5 million spent to create 3 jobs in dallas. ::)
as far as saving companies and jobs there is no way of knowing those numbers.
Face it doggity the stimulus hasnt lived up to the hype even if it creates jobs if there is a net loss as in 1.5 mill to create 3 jobs ::) it wasnt a good move and wasnt worth it...
The stimulus bill has ALWAYS been touted as a bill that would create jobs AND save them. If the number you are citing is anything like the rest of the numbers that have been popping up, then you are distorting what they actually mean. In most of the cases I've read about, it is not as simple as net loss net gain.
-
STIMULOUS WAS A JOKE PLAIN AND SIMPLE... It was a tactic for the commie leader to flex him liberal commie muscle quickly after taking office thats about it. I mean come on it was passed in what? almost 72 hours, how much thought actually went into this???
-
I think you misunderstand the goal of the bill.
Incidentally, there was actually a good deal of infrastructure spending- most of it was in the form of repairs, not new construction. Earlier you asked why the new Tappan Zee couldn't have been built with stiim funds. If the plans for it were finished and ready to go, it would have been eligible.
How do you think the administration should have gone about creating long term permanent jobs in the private sector?
Nuclear Power Plants
Water Desalinazation Plants
Tax breaks to companies to bring back manfg plants
More Wi Fi access
Projects like the Tappan Zee or a third hudson crossing to ease the massive congestion.
Crap like that.
-
The stimulus bill has ALWAYS been touted as a bill that would create jobs AND save them. If the number you are citing is anything like the rest of the numbers that have been popping up, then you are distorting what they actually mean. In most of the cases I've read about, it is not as simple as net loss net gain.
LOL but you take the administration at their word for the number of jobs saved or created? ::)
I agree its not as simple as a net gain or loss but it face it al this bill was full of pork it could have been much smaller and just as ineffective as it is now...
-
Nuclear Power Plants
Water Desalinazation Plants
Tax breaks to companies to bring back manfg plants
More Wi Fi access
Projects like the Tappan Zee or a third hudson crossing to ease the massive congestion.
Crap like that.
As I said, you misunderstood the purpose of the bill. "Crap like that" would have taken years to plan and implement. The stimulus bill was directed at projects that were ready to be implemented. It was meant to put money into the economy fast.
-
LOL but you take the administration at their word for the number of jobs saved or created? ::)
I agree its not as simple as a net gain or loss but it face it al this bill was full of pork it could have been much smaller and just as ineffective as it is now...
LOL Where did I do that? I said the way you are interpreting the numbers was a distortion. LOL
-
LOL Where did I do that? I said the way you are interpreting the numbers was a distortion. LOL
and how do you know they way the ppl in your article are interpreting the info isnt distorting
at least i give reason for my beliefs they dont...all they say is hey it saved some companies, doesnt say who, doesnt say how many jobs etc... ::)
-
Obviously, the stimulus has not worked-- nothing has been stimulated, no jobs have been saved, created or maintained.
Also, lets throw in the rampant fraud and corruption that the bill has created. The stimulus watch website that was supposed to outline all these "new" jobs has already been shown to have huge inaccuracies and outright falsehoods.
Among some of the insanely wasteful byproducts of the stimulus bill itself includes a pay out of 3 million dollars to a congressional district in Florida that doesn't exist.
I would say the stimulus bill, like everything else the administration has done, has been a complete and total dud.
-
STIMULOUS WAS A JOKE PLAIN AND SIMPLE... It was a tactic for the commie leader to flex him liberal commie muscle quickly after taking office thats about it. I mean come on it was passed in what? almost 72 hours, how much thought actually went into this???
How can someone be both communist and liberal at the same time? explain that to me. How do you work the communist dialectic into a liberal world view?