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Getbig Main Boards => Politics and Political Issues Board => Topic started by: Soul Crusher on November 27, 2009, 12:43:04 PM
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I like peter schiff..
However, giving him money to manage is a way to lose money...That is a fact
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However, giving him money to manage is a way to lose money...That is a fact
Wrong again.
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You can take that time frame. Thats ridiculous. How about take a 10 year average? Ev ery adviser has a client or two that has totally flopped for one reason or another.
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I'll let my own experience dictate the truth of the matter, you can shove those articles where the sun don;t shine.
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Why are you so angry? 8)
perhaps, you are being owned? ;D
Did you get burnt shorting the market in the last few months? If you did i'm sorry.
You are a sad individual. You even sent me a private message, just to say "owned", when you don;t know jack shit about my experience. This place is really taking a turn for the worst with fuckheads like you around.
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"please respond to the thread.
You are wrong, admit it"
Another PM from you.
I like how you are literally begging a response from me. Please Bindare. PLEASE respond. LOL
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Stop crying and prove me wrong.. ;D 8)
i'm 100% correct
Did your Aunt Flow come to town, i can't think of why you could be so angry ???
Now you are changing posts. hahahahahaha
Flake.
I won't spend any effort on you unless it's to get a laugh.
Please Bindare. PLEASE!!!!!!! I'm so lonely. lol
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i think i win the debate..please Bind have some hot milk and go to bed.. you lost this battle..
perhaps you can't come back tommarrow and debate me
Bindare is one of the best posters here. Stop trolling.
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This soothsayer schiff is amazing.
peter knew how the story was going to play out, and failed to capitalize on his investment thesis.
He was calling for investing in gold a long time ago. How did he not capitilize?
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you say i don't provide evidence..this time i did and proved both of you guys both wrong... 8)
Welcome to the end of 2009, a month away from 2010. Are the only one living in a snap shot of time?
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Here is to your attack on him. He addresses your attack points.
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Peter Schiff Rebuttal- A Response to My Critics
Stock-Markets / Managed Accounts
Jan 29, 2009 - 04:47 PM
By: Peter_Schiff
My popularity on television and the internet has led a very small money manager to use his popular financial blog to promote his fledgling business by attacking the recent poor performance of my long-term investment strategy. The post is causing quite a stir and compels me to provide some badly needed context.
To achieve his ends, this individual has distorted much of what I have been saying and writing, and has twisted the facts to support his own preconceived conclusion. In essence, his piece is nothing more than an overt advertisement (and a highly deceptive one at that) to use my popularity to advance his career. In so doing he has given my critics, particularly some who have been embarrassed by their roles in the "Peter Schiff was Right" video, their moments of retribution. In addition, some members of the press who have never been among my greatest fans are seizing the opportunity to discredit me as well.
The crux of the blogger's arguments are that my beliefs in "decoupling, hyperinflation, and that the dollar is going to zero" have been completely discredited by the events of 2008, and that the resulting investment losses suffered by my clients last year confirms the fatal flaws in my approach.
In addition to mischaracterizing many of my beliefs, he also is confusing short-term market fluctuations with long-term economic trends.
First of all, the hyper inflation issue is a straw man at best. While I often talk about the possibility of hyper inflation, I have always said that it would be a worse-case scenario that would play out over many years. The fact that it did not appear in the first year of the economic crash (2008) does not invalidate my position. I have always maintained that this worst-case scenario will likely be avoided by what will ultimately be a dramatic shift in policy once our leaders come to their senses. However, until then the dollar will likely lose a substantial portion of its value.
Second, I never said that the dollar would go to zero, either in 2008 or any year thereafter. I have said that in the event of hyper inflation the dollar's value would approach zero. My actual forecast in my book "Crash Proof" was that the Dollar Index would fall to 40 (currently about 85), with a realistic worst case scenario, assuming very high but not hyper inflation, of 20 or lower.
Third, the blogger points out that because the decoupling theory (foreign economies improving while the U.S. falters) that I wrote about in "Crash Proof" has yet to occur, that the theory itself was ridiculous. In my book I wrote that this process would not occur overnight, that initially our creditors would come to our aid, and in so doing our problems would become manifest abroad. I wrote that it would take time for the world to realize that what had been decoupled from the economic train was not the engine but the caboose. In fact, that is precisely the way it is playing out.
Chapter Ten of "Crash Proof" is specifically focused on the need to keep funds liquid to take advantage of the buying opportunity that would initially develop once our stock market began its collapse. I specifically mentioned that when U.S. stocks began to fall, we could expect sympathetic declines overseas. While I did not know the precise timing of those events, I advised readers to prepare.
I did not expect the huge dollar rally of 2008. But to discredit my long-term view of the dollar based on an eight month move is absurd. So while I believed that a weak dollar would cushion the temporary decline I expected in foreign stocks, a strong dollar ended up exacerbating it. In the meantime, I believed that the high dividends these stocks were paying would make it easier to ride out any correction. The problem was that the dollar fell so far leading up to the crisis (in 2005-2007) that by the time the crisis finally erupted the dollar was poised for a bounce.
Central to the argument that my investment thesis is wrong is the belief that the crisis is over or that the recent trends will continue until it is. But the crisis is just beginning and the movements thus far in the dollar, commodities, and foreign stocks, are mere head fakes. Once the speculators have been flushed from the markets, the underlying long-term trends I have been following should return in earnest.
To illustrate the flaws in my investment strategy the blogger has posted a client's statement that shows a loss in excess of 60%. In addition, he claims to know of other Euro Pacific clients who have experienced similar losses. The inference of course is that most, or all, of my clients must have suffered similar losses, and the existence of such losses proves that I am wrong. In fact, some have gone a step further, claiming that such losses prove that I am a fraud.
First let's deal with the one client's account. I have been following several key investment themes for the past ten years. The basis for my strategy is that recent U.S. prosperity has been false, and that the consequences of the bursting of our bubble economy would ultimately play out in a substantial decline in the value of the U.S. dollar, higher commodity prices, the re-monetization of gold, and foreign equities substantially outperforming U.S. markets. From an investment perspective, those themes played out extremely well in the eight years from 2000-2007. Recently we have seen a sharp, and I believe temporary, reversal of these trends. Those that came late to the party (at least based on where we are today) now have to ride out a particularly difficult correction.
For example, the account in question belongs to the son of a long-standing Euro Pacific client, who is still adding funds to his accounts. Without specially commenting on the performance of the father's account, it must have been compelling enough to finally persuade the son to come on board himself in early 2008. However, as is often the case, by the time he came on board, foreign stocks and commodities were about to sell off, and the dollar was about to begin its unexpected rally. Following such a sharp correction, the son now regrets his decision and must blame me for my part in helping him make it.
Perhaps as a stockbroker I should have persuaded the son to wait for a correction. However, while this clearly would have been the right call with the full benefit of hind-sight, it was certainly not as clear given the information I had at the time. However, I never held myself out to be a market timer. My advice was always geared to long-term investors. Given the thousands of clients that I have, and the large number who joined near the recent dollar peak and market tops, it's no wonder that a few have contacted this blogger to complain; especially since he has actively sought them out. Of course, the fact that the overwhelming majority of my clients are not complaining, to him or anyone else for that matter, says a lot more about what is really going on.
To the extent that the long-term trends I have been following continue, I am confident that even those whose short-term timing was bad will still do well in time. This is especially true if they take advantage of this pull back by adding to their accounts, either with new funds or by re-investing their dividends. However, to examine the effectiveness of my investment strategy immediately following a major correction by looking only at those accounts who adopted the strategy at the previous peak is unfair and distortive.
Since I have been advising investors to follow these trends for ten years, I will leave it to the public to draw their own conclusions as to how long-term followers of my strategy have fared. However, for those who only recently adopted my approach in 2007 or 2008, the road has been a lot bumpier than they or I thought it would be when they climbed on board. Yet if these long-term trends re-emerge, though the journey may be different than planned, the ultimate destination will remain the same.
The blogger in question implies that all of my clients are down by levels similar to the account he cites. He has asked me to refute his allegations by providing broader performance figures for more clients. But, since Euro Pacific Capital is a brokerage firm and not a Registered Investment Advisor, I am prohibited by regulators from providing any details on the investment performance achieved by my clients. The blogger in question makes his challenge knowing full well that I am legally prevented from accepting it. He then uses my failure to refute his false claim as validating its accuracy.
In addition, consider that 70% of the account in question happens to be invested in mining and energy stocks. These were the two sectors that got hit the hardest in the recent downturn. This is a very aggressive exposure to those sectors and not typical of Euro Pacific clients. While it is true that many of my clients are interested in these two sectors and specifically seek portfolios heavily weighted in these areas, most take a more balanced approach, with mining and energy typically representing 20% to 30% of their portfolios. I also have clients with minimal or no exposure to these sectors.
All Euro Pacific client accounts are different reflecting the individual objectives of each client. In general the goals of my clients are to get out of the dollar and hedge against inflation. However the way each client chooses to pursue these goals varies. Some choose a relatively conservative approach, consisting mainly of utilities, property trusts and bonds, others choice a more balanced approach, adding exposure to infrastructure, agriculture, energy trusts, and transportation, while some are more aggressive with heavy exposure to resources, junior mining companies, and oil and gas exploration companies.
Some clients specifically seek to gain or avoid exposure to certain regions, sectors or currencies. Some are focused more on long-term preservation of purchasing power, while others look to maximize long-term appreciation. Most of my accounts are yield oriented, but many of my clients specially request more aggressive growth oriented portfolios. In a down market to evaluate my investment strategy based solely on the performance of the most aggressive accounts is completely unfair. Doing so ignores the better performance of less aggressive accounts that were not hit nearly as hard.
In addition, to look only at the performance of foreign stocks, while ignoring other aspects of my investment strategy only tells part of the story. What about gold, foreign bonds, short positions in financials, home builders and subprime mortgages (or merely avoiding long exposure to those sectors), or other investments people have made, either at Euro Pacific or elsewhere based on my insights? What about dividends earned, or gains realized on closed positions?
Mainstream economists, journalists, and investment professionals have never liked my message and have never resisted the temptation to shoot the messenger. When my investment strategies were performing well, I got little credit for it. Instead, all the attention was focused on the apparent failure of my dire economic predictions to materialize. Now that the economy is collapsing along the lines that I correctly forecast, criticism is being focused on the recent poor performance of my investment strategy (a fact that I have never tried to hide). Of course by the time my investment strategy is once again in step with my economic forecasts, an event that I believe will occur sooner than most people think, it will likely be too late for most people to do adopt it.
My critics have often referred to me as a stopped clock. I believe that the accusation is best leveled at the accusers. Having been wrong for so long, they are now enjoying their brief moment in the sun. They should enjoy it while it lasts. For now, they are creating fodder for some future "Peter Schiff was Right" piece where those who now criticize my investment performance will look just as foolish as those who once criticized my economic forecasts.
For a more in depth analysis of our financial problems and the inherent dangers they pose for the U.S. economy and U.S. dollar denominated investments, read my new book “Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse.” Click here to order a copy today.
For an updated look at his investment strategy order a copy of his just released book ‘The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets.” Click here to order your copy now .
By Peter Schiff
Euro Pacific Capital
http://www.europac.net/
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Losing 75% in that time period in very bad...the guy is a bear and it was a bear market..
My firm was market neutral at the time..And we piped out a 4% return in 2008...However, we maintained a net 20% long equity allocation..
Our equity portion of the portfolio was down like 39%...However, our positions were all hedged.
Show me some long term results?
Agreed - to make up for that 75% loss - he'll have to post gains of 400%. He definitely had little downside protection there. Talk about letting your losers ride...
Losing 75% isn't a 'bad year' - it's more than that
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ya, but he puts fear in the hearths of gullible american's and trick them to buying his propaganda.. These two ass clowns probably bought his books..
he's going to have to use 400 to one leverage against the dollar, to hope to make that return back
Well - if it's a hedge fund - and he's only getting comped on profits - they'll more than likely close it down that work to put in a 400% gain for nothing. That's what often happens in these situations.
As for propaganda - I'm not sure he thinks it's propaganda. I am sure he believes what he says. I personally think there's probably a 1 in 4 chance of Schiffs worse nightmares coming true - but I do not believe that hyperinflation/$100 can of tuna is in any way guaranteed at this point.
Anyway - Schiff would provide interesting counterbalance if elected to the senate.
Still -I wouldn't buy into his funds.
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now it's a safe bet to short Gold, and silver..
Gold back to 2oo dollars an oZ.
If BIndare and 33367 own gold...it's a sign of a market top, and they got holding the bag.
usually un-savy investors like these invest when an asset is overbought and at the top
the probally bought tech stocks in the spring of 2000, houses in summer 2005
Wrong again fool. Stop snorting lines, your brain is shot.
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??
Souce Huffington post??? 8)
Your posts are ample evidence of your brain being completely fried due to cocaine abuse.
BTW - if you have something to say to me, keep it in the open threads and stop wasting space with your idiotic PM's to me.
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how big is your neck..i need to get your leash today...
PWNED like the bitch you are ;D
NYSC in Scarsdale any night around 8pm and you can report to the thread.
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Reported??? 8)
You asked how big my neck was. If you want to know, come to NYSC in Scarsdale and you can report back.
I already posted a pic of myself before on this board.
Go back to bed.
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It was a joke...Post the picture again..It will help, selecting the leashes..
Why, so you can have bathroom material?
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now it's a safe bet to short Gold, and silver..
Gold back to 2oo dollars an oZ.
If BIndare and 33367 own gold...it's a sign of a market top, and they got holding the bag.
usually un-savy investors like these invest when an asset is overbought and at the top
the probally bought tech stocks in the spring of 2000, houses in summer 2005
This is a typical Benny response. When I suggested buying physical gold at 700 Benny layed into me and said the same thing. "Bindare buys at the top". Then 800 and 900, 1000, 1100, comes around ::) Gee I didn't know 700 was going to be the top, I guess I lost big time. Thats why you never take getbig seriously, listening to guys like you would put me in deep shit.
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i made three gold purchases, one at 250, 290, 298. all were gold bullion....I sold my entire gold stake when it hit was falling from an all time high..I got out at 928..The gold was getting very expensive for me to hold...Keep in mind that i owned bullion, so i was being charged a extremely high custodial fee...
I sold out of the gold, and was going to invest in the (GLD)...However, like i said i see very little value at these levels.
I see very little value in gold at these levels
Thats fine. I thought about selling at 1050 but Im gonna hang in there and purchase more if it goes down a bit more. Many mining stocks are performing very well.
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Thats fine. I thought about selling at 1050 but I mgonna hang in there and purchase more if it goes down a bit more. Many mining stocks are performing very well.
How old is Little Nickey? My guess is that he is 25-28 y/o since no one over 30 y/o could possibly be as juvenile as he is in his responses unless they are a strung out junkie coke head. Oh that's right . . . . .
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How old is Little Nickey? My guess is that he is 25-28 y/o since no one over 30 y/o could possibly be as juvenile as he is in his responses unless they are a strung out junkie coke head. Oh that's right . . . . .
Actually I'm going to look at this through another lens and because he is great at making money, I'd like him to give us some investing advice for the next couple of months. I'd be extremely interestd to see how everything looks after that. So, instead of debating with the guy I am seriously open to any real and meaningfull market suggestions he has that will make me some money.
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first investment rule..Buy low sell high...
Or sell high and buy low....
You wanna be cute or are you gonna give some meaningfull suggestions?
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You wanna be cute or are you gonna give some meaningfull suggestions?
Sounds like a plan. Nicky: since you claim to be so brilliant, why dont you give us a 6 month outlook and we can revisit this thread and see if your projections hold up.
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LVLT= level three communications...Zombie company....short
Bond holders will own it...Buffet is a major Bond holder in this company
I meant macro projections like the Dow, S&P, Gold, Oil, etc.
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I'm more of a micro investor myself
I'm all about the positive alpha...
predictions for the end of 2010
S&P 500=1350
Dow= 11,300
gold, 750
Oil= Won;t even make a prediction...cause opec can do what they want
however, i think we'll be range bound 70-90...
Ok - so 6 months or 12 months from now when you are still bashing Palin and I am calling Obama a communist, we can revist this thread.
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Since i'm such a nice guy...i will offer you the chance of opening a manged account with me...
fees' are 2 and 17.5%
so you pay me a management fee of 2 annually, and i take 17.5% of the profits..
The minimum investment is 250,000 K...
You're really are too much.
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Since i'm such a nice guy...i will offer you the chance of opening a manged account with me...
fees' are 2 and 17.5%
so you pay me a management fee of 2 annually, and i take 17.5% of the profits..
The minimum investment is 250,000 K...
Do you think I would invest my money with someone who can't even spell the word "depreciate" correctly?
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Do you think I would invest my money with someone who can't even spell the word "depreciate" correctly?
Hey 333386, housing is going to go down as well as commercial real estate. Did you know that?
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Hey 333386, housing is going to go down as well as commercial real estate. Did you know that?
He must have been reading my articles for the past few months.
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Hey 333386, gold is going to go down as well as gold mining. Did you know that?
lol
That great news. I think I'll buy some more. :-*
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i have beaten my benchmark average, the S&p 500 ever year since 1996..I'm worth It man
I started investing in intel, msft, aol in 1996...I sold half my positions in each one, and got my monies back...
I still hold msft to this day..that 30 dollar dividend it paid fucking sucked..
1996? You said you were between 26-28 yrs old. That means you started investing, and beating the S&P 500 at ages 13-15?
You sound even more full of shit, if that's possible.
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Ooops. Looks like somebody just got exposed. :D
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1. How old are you? 26-28
2. Did you do lines this morning? NO
3. I am still not convinced you have an MBA. LET'S BET YOU ACCOUNT..
4. You hate women. nO, i LOVE HOOKERS
5. You are utterly petrified of Palin. ( NO I WOULD PUT MY DICK IN HER) DOES THAT ANSWER YOU QUESTION
Brutal self owning...
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Brutal self owning...
It's the cocaine.
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It's the cocaine.
Its not that hard to do Bindare. The Luke tried the same crap with Skip and I and never returned after the beat down we administered to him.
Little Nicky will be the same.
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It's going to be a lot of fun watching this twink try and recover. Like a fish flapping around on dry land. :D
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I'm making 5.6 - 13% per month by selling covered calls on GG. The only reasonable way to play the stock market game.
Sold the Dec 18 call for 1.25 at a strike price of 46, bought the stock at 44.3595. Do the math if you don't believe my % returns.
Stock goes down and option expires, I make 5.6%, if the call goes into the money I make 13%
I'll post the strike and price of the call I sell next month if anyone wants to follow what I am doing.
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I'm making 5.6 - 13% per month by selling covered calls on GG. The only reasonable way to play the stock market game.
Sold the Dec 18 call for 1.25 at a strike price of 46, bought the stock at 44.3595. Do the math if you don't believe my % returns.
Stock goes down and option expires, I make 5.6%, if the call goes into the money I make 13%
I'll post the strike and price of the call I sell next month if anyone wants to follow what I am doing.
That's a nice trade in itself - but 13% return on a trade is a far cry from 13% return per month on a portfolio.
I presume all your eggs aren't in this basket, right ?
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That's a nice trade in itself - but 13% return on a trade is a far cry from 13% return per month on a portfolio.
I presume all your eggs aren't in this basket, right ?
Yes you are correct, but if you use the appropriate tools to evaluate the true cost of an option vs what the market rate is, the strategy is very consistent.
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Yes you are correct, but if you use the appropriate tools to evaluate the true cost of an option vs what the market rate is, the strategy is very consistent.
I have been considering the strategy myself. Whilst it seems pretty straightforward, what do you do when the underlying drops in value ? Obviously, you still have the option revenue as a cushion - but you wouldn't hold the underlying down to zero.
What concerns me is that the underlying drops, I get out and then it moves back up again and I actually get called. Do you just buy back the option and dump the stock if it tanks ?
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I have been considering the strategy myself. Whilst it seems pretty straightforward, what do you do when the underlying drops in value ? Obviously, you still have the option revenue as a cushion - but you wouldn't hold the underlying down to zero.
What concerns me is that the underlying drops, I get out and then it moves back up again and I actually get called. Do you just buy back the option and dump the stock if it tanks ?
There are stop losses, selling back the call, etc. Or you can hold it until options expiration sell another call against it at 3-4 strikes out with 30% prob.