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Getbig Main Boards => Politics and Political Issues Board => Topic started by: Soul Crusher on September 07, 2010, 11:10:43 AM
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New polls spell gloom for Obama's Democrats
AFP on Yahoo ^ | 9/7/10 | Stephen Collinson
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WASHINGTON (AFP) – New opinion polls Tuesday made painful reading for President Barack Obama's Democrats, cementing conventional wisdom that they face a pounding by Republicans in November's congressional elections.
The surveys, published after the Labor Day weekend, the traditional campaign kick-off date, suggest voters have soured on Obama, see him as too liberal and are increasingly pessimistic about the sluggish economic recovery.
At a time of high unemployment and economic pain, it appears that the cocktail of hope and change that powered Obama to the presidency has drained away and that a short era of Democratic political dominance may be closing.
Yet, the polls also suggest that despite their anger at incumbent Democrats, the public has little genuine affection for Republicans, opening possible lines of attack for the White House as it seeks to limit the damage.
A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows Republicans have a yawning 49 percent to 40 percent advantage among likely voters, which would probably be enough for them to grab back control of the House of Representatives.
All 435 House seats are up for grabs along with 37 of the 100 Senate seats in the November 2 election.
Several key analysts believe Republicans are in reach of winning the 39 seats they need to capture the House but are less likely to snatch the Senate.
Should Republicans win or capture both chambers, they could spell the end of Obama's sweeping reform agenda and usher in a period of tense divided government.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...
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I am at the point where i think the GOP gets + 50 in the house and plus 10 in the Senate with Anlge winning in NV, Rossi in WA, and Johnson in WI.
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New polls spell gloom for Obama's Democrats
AFP on Yahoo ^ | 9/7/10 | Stephen Collinson
________________________ ________________________ _________
WASHINGTON (AFP) – New opinion polls Tuesday made painful reading for President Barack Obama's Democrats, cementing conventional wisdom that they face a pounding by Republicans in November's congressional elections.
The surveys, published after the Labor Day weekend, the traditional campaign kick-off date, suggest voters have soured on Obama, see him as too liberal and are increasingly pessimistic about the sluggish economic recovery.
At a time of high unemployment and economic pain, it appears that the cocktail of hope and change that powered Obama to the presidency has drained away and that a short era of Democratic political dominance may be closing.
Yet, the polls also suggest that despite their anger at incumbent Democrats, the public has little genuine affection for Republicans, opening possible lines of attack for the White House as it seeks to limit the damage.
A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows Republicans have a yawning 49 percent to 40 percent advantage among likely voters, which would probably be enough for them to grab back control of the House of Representatives.
All 435 House seats are up for grabs along with 37 of the 100 Senate seats in the November 2 election.
Several key analysts believe Republicans are in reach of winning the 39 seats they need to capture the House but are less likely to snatch the Senate.
Should Republicans win or capture both chambers, they could spell the end of Obama's sweeping reform agenda and usher in a period of tense divided government.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...
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I am at the point where i think the GOP gets + 50 in the house and plus 10 in the Senate with Anlge winning in NV, Rossi in WA, and Johnson in WI.
Don't forget Joe Miller. I think he get the nod. And, even though she's behind, don't count out Linda McMahon.
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Joe Miller is not a pick up since the Repub holds that seat.
I think the GOP can realistically take NV and WI.
CT is a stretch.
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Joe Miller is not a pick up since the Repub holds that seat.
I think the GOP can realistically take NV and WI.
CT is a stretch.
If she gets within 5 points, by the end of the month, she's got a chance.
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If she gets within 5 points, by the end of the month, she's got a chance.
CT and NY do not seem part of the tsunami coming.
BTW - just if anyone wants to know, most of my stuff comes from RCP, which by far is the best political site out there bar none.
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LOL @ the 240 obsession
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If she gets within 5 points, by the end of the month, she's got a chance.
It is a stretch but in fairness she is fairly liberal and will probably be pretty moderate in the senate.
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LOL @ the 240 obsession
240 - we are going to all wait with baited breath at your response in November when your hero is officially a lame duck.
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CT and NY do not seem part of the tsunami coming.
BTW - just if anyone wants to know, most of my stuff comes from RCP, which by far is the best political site out there bar none.
So do I. I often cite the RCP average on the polls. Obama's number went up a bit (likely due to Iraq); he actually got 50% in one poll a couple of weeks ago. But, that ended QUICKLY!!
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56 Days to Decide: Voters Sour Toward Dems, Odds Improve for GOP House Takeover
Published September 07, 2010
Nearly 20 years ago, Bill Clinton rode into office on the mantra of, "It's the economy, stupid."
But what goes around comes around. Republicans are using the same theme to mount a comeback that could rival their 1994 "Republican Revolution." A new wave of polls and projections capping the Labor Day weekend shows voters are souring, perhaps irreversibly, toward the idea of giving Democrats another chance at shaping the agenda in Washington.
Virtually every set of numbers portends a bad November for the majority party. More voters think the country and the economy are on the wrong track. More voters are losing faith in Democrats' ability to fix it. More voters want Republicans to provide a congressional counterweight to President Obama.
Republicans still have their work cut out for them to pull off a repeat of 1994, when the party won control of both chambers. Most projections show Republicans falling a few seats short of the 10 pickups needed to seize control of the Senate.
But in the House, The Rothenberg Political Report put out new projections this week showing likely Republican gains of between 37 and 42 seats, with a 55-seat pickup "possible." Republicans need 39 to win back control of the House. The new projection from one of the top Washington prognosticators reflects an increase of nearly 10 seats.
Local polling that shows voters turning increasingly toward GOP candidates reflects national polling that shows voters losing confidence in the leadership and direction in Washington.
A Wall Street Journal/NBC News survey out Tuesday showed only 26 percent of those polled think the economy will improve in a year -- down from 47 percent a year ago. Sixty-one percent think the country is on the wrong track.
Voters aren't necessarily confident Republicans will fix all these problems. They were split evenly, 43-43 percent, over which party should control Congress. But when factoring in those most likely to vote, Republicans appear likely to benefit -- from that subset, the poll showed Republicans holding a 9-point lead.
A Washington Post/ABC News poll out Tuesday showed a more dramatic split. Among those most likely to vote in November, Republicans enjoyed a 13-point advantage. Even more thought it was important to put Republicans back in charge if only to provide a check to Obama's agenda. According to the Post/ABC poll, 55 percent of those surveyed said they want Republicans in control; just 39 percent said they want Democrats in charge to assist Obama's policies.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is fighting back against the perception that its representatives are in a losing battle. The Democratic campaign arm released several new local polls Tuesday showing select incumbents faring better against their challengers in districts Republicans are looking to for pickups. One poll showed New York Rep. Mike Arcuri leading GOP candidate Richard Hanna by 13 points; another showed Rep. Tom Perriello within 2 points of GOP state Sen. Robert Hurt. The Rothenberg Political Report had listed both of those races as "tilt Republican" in its calculations.
However, far more Democratic-held seats are in play this year than Republican seats. A slew of newcomer Republican candidates are poised to play off an anti-incumbent mood, as in 1994 when Newt Gingrich helped his party seize control of the House for the first time in 40 years.
The numbers are getting worse for Democrats amid a darkening economic picture. The unemployment rate ticked up to 9.6 percent in August, and Obama is in the middle of unrolling a set of new economic proposals aimed at fueling job growth for an expanding labor pool.
He continues to cast Republicans as resistant to every economic proposal he's put on the table.
"When it comes to just about everything we've done to strengthen our middle class, to rebuild our economy, almost every Republican in Congress says, no," Obama said in Milwaukee Monday.
"Even on things we usually agree on, they say, no. If I said the sky was blue, they'd say, no. If I said fish live in the sea, they'd say, no."
But Republican strategist Brad Blakeman, former adviser to George W. Bush, suggested Republicans cannot be blamed for failed policies.
"Desperate people do desperate things. This president's policies have not been working," he said. "The American people understand that in 2008, they gave them the keys to the kingdom. They gave them the House, the Senate and the White House -- with high majorities. There's not much that the Republicans could have done."
The Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll of 1,000 adults was taken Aug. 26-30. It had a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
The Washington Post/ABC News poll of 1,002 adults was taken Aug. 30-Sept. 2. It had a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.
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The thrill was gone when he lost ObamaGirl.
;D
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To think 240 and others thought Obama would be the next Lincoln or face on Mt. Rushmore. ::) ::)
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To think 240 and others thought Obama would be the next Lincoln or face on Mt. Rushmore. ::) ::)
Should I break out the unofficial-official theme song, on their behalf?
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From RCP - That site has so much info.
Its the best out there.
If Fiorina wins in CA - the Dems are donezo in biblical measure.
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Fiorina Pulls Ahead of Boxer in California
Fiorina Pulls Ahead of Boxer in California
By Kyle Adams - September 7, 2010
In the California Senate race, Republican Carly Fiorina has pulled ahead of incumbent Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer, according to the latest poll from Rasmussen Reports. Fiorina leads Boxer by a mere 1 percentage point in the survey of 750 likely California voters. The 48-47 lead is the first for the former Hewlett-Packard CEO in Rasmussen's polling of the race.
This poll comes on the heels of a SurveyUSA poll released last week that showed Fiorina ahead by 2 percent. However, Boxer still leads in the RCP Average by two points.
The candidates faced each other for the first time in a debate last week, sparring over a wide range of issues -- from the economy to the environment. While Fiorina attempted to paint Boxer as the embodiment of an out-of-touch Washington political class, Boxer hammered Fiorina for her tenure at HP, where she was forced out in 2005.
Boxer, who was first elected in 1992, faces her toughest opponent yet in Fiorina as well as the most challenging political environment for Democrats in decades. Forty-one percent of voters polled by Rasmussen have a very unfavorable view of Boxer, and only 20 percent view her very favorably. Still, California remains a solidly Democratic state and, according to the Rasmussen poll, 55 percent of voters approve of President Obama's job performance.
The poll was conducted Monday and has a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.
Kyle Adams can be reached at kadams@realclearpolitics.com.
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September 7, 2010 10:09 AM
Polls Offer Grim Outlook for Democrats in November
Posted by Stephanie Condon 232 comments .
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(Credit: CBS/ AP) A series of polls released today paint a grim picture for Democrats in the upcoming midterm elections. Likely voters surveyed say they favor Republicans over Democrats, and they trust the GOP more to handle issues like the economy.
In a Washington Post/ABC News poll, 53 percent of likely voters said they would vote for the Republican candidate in their district if the midterm elections were today, while 40 percent would vote for the Democrat. (Worth noting: the two parties are nearly tied when it comes to the preferences of voters overall, not just likely voters.)
Among voters overall, independents -- a critical voting bloc -- say they would support Republican over Democratic candidates in their House districts by a 13-point margin.
And 55 percent of voters overall in the poll said it's more important to have Republicans lead Congress to serve as a check on President Obama's agenda than to have Democrats in control to support Mr. Obama's agenda. Just 39 percent said the opposite.
Meanwhile, a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll showed voters split, 43 percent to 43 percent, about whether they favored a Republican-controlled Congress or a Democratically-controlled Congress. Likely voters, however, favor a Republican-controlled Congress, 49 percent to 40 percent.
The economic outlook among those surveyed by the Wall Street Journal is pessimistic -- just 26 percent think the economy is going to get better in the next year, down from 47 percent a year earlier. As many as 61 percent say the country is on the wrong track.
A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released today shows that 46 percent of Americans say that Republicans in Congress would do a better job dealing with the economy, compared with 43 percent who say Democrats would do a better job. While the results are within the poll's margin of error, independents favor Republicans on the issue by 51 percent to 32 percent.
CBSNews.com Special Report: Campaign 2010
The Post/ABC poll shows voters favoring Republicans over Democrats on the economy by 43 percent to 39 percent. While it is a small advantage, this is the first time this poll has found Republicans to have any lead on the economy since 2002.
Perceptions about the president do not appear to be helping Democrats. The Wall Street Journal poll puts Mr. Obama's approval rating at 45 percent, with 49 percent disapproving.
The margin is wider in the Post/ABC poll, in which 46 percent of Americans approve of the job of the president is doing, but 52 percent disapprove. Among independents surveyed, 57 percent disapproved of the job Mr. Obama is doing.
The polling outcomes suggest Republicans could very well take control of the House -- something three professors are predicting after running a series of simulations of the elections. Republicans have a 79 percent chance of winning the House, according to Professors Joseph Bafumi of Dartmouth College, Robert Erikson of Columbia University and Christopher Wlezien of Temple University. Their model suggests the most likely scenario is for Democrats to lose 50 seats this November, leaving Republicans with a 229-206 advantage.
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Wow, it doesn't seem like a slam dunk. Even Fox news the other day wasn't so sure about it.
They will lose some seats but will they lose control?
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it'll be nice, after 2 years of libbing it up, to return to the govt just not getting much done for 2 years.
Then, should repubs win all 3 in 2012, they'll let an attack happen, start another war, give back the oil company tax cuts, and everything will improve ;)
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it'll be nice, after 2 years of libbing it up, to return to the govt just not getting much done for 2 years.
Then, should repubs win all 3 in 2012, they'll let an attack happen, start another war, give back the oil company tax cuts, and everything will improve ;)
Spoken like a true prophet! ;D
Beware of the Ides of March!
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Wow, it doesn't seem like a slam dunk. Even Fox news the other day wasn't so sure about it.
They will lose some seats but will they lose control?
I think most people harken back to the 1995-2000 era and hope obama takes a few lessons from Bill.
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I think most people harken back to the 1995-2000 era and hope obama takes a few lessons from Bill.
So that's the new "Hope and Change"? Hope Obama acts more like Bill?
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Democrats are in real trouble.
Anyone remember the story I posted a few months ago that had a bunch of historians ranking Bush as the worst president in history and Obama as the 18th best? (Or something like that.) I doubt the majority of the public would agree.
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Democrats are in real trouble.
Anyone remember the story I posted a few months ago that had a bunch of historians ranking Bush as the worst president in history and Obama as the 18th best? (Or something like that.) I doubt the majority of the public would agree.
that always happens with presidents.
In ten years, people will remember obama fondly, and the new guy (or girl) will be the worst one in history.
ppl are drama queens. For conservatives, clinton was the worst gungrabbing, rights hating, lib POS ever. For dems, Bush was the biggest 911-allowing, warmongering douche ever. For conservatives, Obama is the biggest spend-happy socialist lib ever. For libs, President palin will be the biggest clueless overconfident puppet ever. Cyclical.
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that always happens with presidents.
In ten years, people will remember obama fondly, and the new guy (or girl) will be the worst one in history.
ppl are drama queens. For conservatives, clinton was the worst gungrabbing, rights hating, lib POS ever. For dems, Bush was the biggest 911-allowing, warmongering douche ever. For conservatives, Obama is the biggest spend-happy socialist lib ever. For libs, President palin will be the biggest clueless overconfident puppet ever. Cyclical.
No, it does not always happen to this degree.
Go read Arnold's thread about Dubya. Great thread.
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No, it does not always happen to this degree.
Go read Arnold's thread about Dubya. Great thread.
even carter went up after leaving office. obama will go up to.
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even carter went up after leaving office. obama will go up to.
I'm talking about degree.
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I'm talking about degree.
please quantify the degree to which you are referring
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Wow, it doesn't seem like a slam dunk. Even Fox news the other day wasn't so sure about it.
They will lose some seats but will they lose control?
They will DEFINATELY lose control of the House, and contrary to popular belief, they will also lose control of teh Senate.
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They will DEFINATELY lose control of the House, and contrary to popular belief, they will also lose control of teh Senate.
A lot can happen in 2 months....look no further than 2008. Please tell me who was leading at this point before elections? ;)
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A lot can happen in 2 months....look no further than 2008. Please tell me who was leading at this point before elections? ;)
Yeah, UE is going up, health insurance rates are spiking, obama can make another few dozen idiotic statements on subjects he is clueless about, etc.
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Yeah, UE is going up, health insurance rates are spiking, obama can make another few dozen idiotic statements on subjects he is clueless about, etc.
Again.......who was leading in 2008 at this point in the Presidential race? :)
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Again.......who was leading in 2008 at this point in the Presidential race? :)
Mid terms are different than a presidiential election since only the most highly motivated turn out. Additionally, obama had tons of ethinc voters and first timers who wont be showing up.
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I can't believe people even argue in favor of having one party control everything. The only way to keep these assholes in check is for one party to have the presidency and the other to control congress. Anytime one party gets control ALWAYS turns out to be a complete disaster.
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Mid terms are different than a presidiential election since only the most highly motivated turn out. Additionally, obama had tons of ethinc voters and first timers who wont be showing up.
yeah, agree there. however, it's very possible - and still probable - that obama will keep his job in 2012 unless the repubs run an awesome canddiate.
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please quantify the degree to which you are referring
As I mentioned, Bush was deemed the worst president in American history by a group of historians and Obama the 18th best (I think) just a short time ago. Bush had approval ratings that rivaled those of the current Congress when he left office. Obama was soaring. Now, in some polls Bush is more popular than Obama.
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Obama is the best gift to the right since Carter.
He is a marxist, a traitor, a communist, an incompetent hack, a beneficiary of affirmative action at its worst, a polarizing street thug, and come Nov. 3, 2010, a lame duck.
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yeah, agree there. however, it's very possible - and still probable - that obama will keep his job in 2012 unless the repubs run an awesome canddiate.
Totally disagree.The magic is over.The only thing he had was a cult of personality,now thats been destroyed,his policies are roundly HATED and the economy sucks.He is over.If they run Romney they will win.
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Ouch
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President Obama Job Approval
Polling Data
Poll Date Sample Approve Disapprove Spread
Source: RCP
RCP Average 9/14 - 9/25 -- 44.7 51.1 -6.4
Gallup 9/23 - 9/25 1547 A 44 49 -5
Rasmussen Reports 9/23 - 9/25 1500 LV 47 52 -5
CNN/Opinion Research 9/21 - 9/23 1010 A 42 54 -12
Politico/GWU/Battleground 9/19 - 9/22 1000 LV 46 51 -5
Reuters/Ipsos 9/16 - 9/19 1161 A 47 50 -3
FOX News 9/14 - 9/16 900 RV 42 52 -10
McClatchy/Marist 9/14 - 9/16 815 RV 45 50 -5
See All President Obama Job Approval Polling Data
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Fox News Poll: Only 39 Perecent Would Vote to Re-Elect Obama in 2012
By Dana Blanton
Published October 01, 2010
FoxNews.com
The 2012 presidential race begins in earnest on Nov. 3 -- the day after the upcoming midterm elections -- and President Obama looks to be in trouble at the starting gate.
A Fox News poll released Friday shows that 54 percent of voters say they would vote for someone else rather than re-electing Obama if the presidential election were held today. That’s up from 47 percent in a January poll and 31 percent in April 2009.
Thirty-nine percent would vote to re-elect the president now, down from 43 percent in January. That's a dramatic drop from the 52 percent who felt that way in April, at his term's 100-day mark.
Click here for a PDF with full poll results.
Among Democrats, the overall number who would re-elect the president has dropped to 75 percent, down from 87 percent at the beginning of his term. And there is an even more significant decline in the number of Democrats who say they would “definitely” vote to re-elect Obama -- from 69 percent near the start of his term to 41 percent now.
There’s a similar falloff in support among those who voted for Obama in the 2008 election. In the new poll, 40 percent of 2008 Obama voters say they would “definitely” vote to re-elect him, down from 64 percent in April 2009.
Among independents, 32 percent would vote to re-elect Obama, down from a high of 43 percent in April 2009. Meanwhile 57 percent of independents say they would vote for someone else -- twice as many as the 28 percent who felt that way near the start of his term.
The national telephone poll was conducted for Fox News by Opinion Dynamics Corp. among 900 registered voters from Sept. 28 to Sept. 29. For the total sample, the poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Voters would also like to see a change in the No. 2 slot on the Obama ticket. By more than 2-to-1 they would prefer to have Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (55 percent) as vice president over Vice President Joe Biden (25 percent). There’s an even stronger preference among Democrats: 67 percent say Clinton compared to 25 percent who prefer Biden.
Hypothetically Speaking
Even with all the negatives, in hypothetical head-to-head matchups Obama tops each of the Republican candidates tested, although in the case of former Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, it’s by just 1 percentage point (41-40 percent). In January, Obama led by 12 percentage points (47-35 percent).
Obama has a 43-40 percent edge over former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, and an even wider advantage over New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (42-30 percent), former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (45-37 percent), and former Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin (48-35 percent).
The president tops an unnamed candidate from the Tea Party movement by 11 points (43-32 percent), which is a much narrower spread than earlier this year when Obama’s advantage was 25 points (48-23 percent).
What about if an independent candidate makes it a three-way race? Obama gets 40 percent to Palin’s 28 percent, with independent candidate New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg capturing 18 percent.
It’s a tighter race if it includes Hillary Clinton as the independent candidate. In that hypothetical matchup, Obama would receive 30 percent, Palin 29 percent and Clinton 27 percent.
Mike Huckabee is the host of “Huckabee” on Fox News Channel and Sarah Palin is a Fox News contributor.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/10/01/fox-news-poll-perecent-vote-elect-obama/
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Considering Obama got 52.7%, i really don't see how he wins in 2012 unless the GOP totally screws it up regardless of who runs.
Think about it, the economic meltdown, horrible mccain camapign, first black potus, 24/7 kneepadding, etc etc and the best he could do was 6 points?
Just with whites alone he will lose, let alone the drop off of hispanics, young people, and a few blacks.
He seems done.