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Getbig Main Boards => Politics and Political Issues Board => Topic started by: Soul Crusher on February 04, 2011, 10:13:31 AM
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Unemployment falls to 9 pct., nearly 2-year low
Unemployment rate falls to 9 pct., lowest since April 2009
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Unemployment-falls-to-90-pct-apf-1708751437.html?x=0&.v=3
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In this Feb. 1, 2011 photo, unemployed Jorge Garcia waits for work at the Day Worker Center of Mountain View in Mountain View, Calif. The unemployment rate dropped sharply last month to 9 percent, the lowest level in nearly two years. But the economy generated only 36,000 net new jobs, the fewest in four months.(AP Photo/Paul Sakuma)
Christopher S. Rugaber, AP Economics Writer, On Friday February 4, 2011, 1:02 pm
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The unemployment rate is sinking at the fastest pace in half a century because a surprisingly large number of people say they're finding work.
The decline conflicts with a survey of businesses that showed weak job growth last month. But that survey doesn't count the self-employed and likely undercounts the nation's smallest businesses. Also, harsh weather disrupted business payrolls in January.
The unemployment rate dropped sharply last month to 9 percent, based on a government survey that found that more than a half-million people found work. A separate Labor Department survey of company payrolls showed 36,000 net jobs created -- barely a quarter of the number needed to keep pace with population growth.
The government's survey of households, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate, measures the self-employed, farm workers and household employees. Many economists also say the household survey includes more people who work at small companies.
"What we're finding is that there are a lot of folks that are saying that they are starting new businesses or they are self-employed," said Labor Secretary Hilda Solis. "That doesn't always get reflected in the payrolls survey."
The number of people who called themselves self-employed rose by 165,000 to 9.7 million in January, the report said. That's the highest total since last May.
"It is clear that the drop in unemployment reflected more jobs being added, not a drop in the labor force," said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight.
Harsh snowstorms last month also affected the payroll survey. They cut into construction employment, which fell by 32,000, the most since May. Transportation and warehousing was also likely affected and fell by 38,000 -- the most in a year.
"The thumbprints of the weather were all over this report," said Neil Dutta, an economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Hiring was suppressed last month and will likely rebound in February, he said. "We know the job market is recovering."
In one bright spot, manufacturing added 49,000 jobs, the most since August 1998. And retailers added 28,000 jobs, the largest number in a year.
The unemployment rate has fallen by eight-tenths of a percentage point in the past two months. That's the steepest two-month drop in nearly 53 years.
But part of that drop has occurred as many of those out of work gave up on their job searches. When unemployed people stop looking for jobs, the government no longer counts them as unemployed.
The number of people who have given up looking rose to 2.8 million last month, from 2.6 million in December. About one million of those workers said they were discouraged. The others stopped looking because they returned to school or for other reasons.
And the participation rate, which is the percentage of the working-age population working or looking for work, fell to a 26-year low of 64.2 percent.
The number of people unemployed fell by more than 600,000 in January to 13.9 million. That's still about double the total that were out of work before the recession began in December 2007.
The January jobs report also includes the government's annual revisions to the employment data, which showed that fewer jobs were created in 2010 than previously thought. All told, about 950,000 net new jobs were added last year, down from a previous estimate of 1.1 million. The economy lost about 8 million jobs in 2008 and 2009.
In the past three months, the economy generated an average of 83,000 net jobs per month. That's not enough to keep up with population growth.
The weakness in the government payroll survey was widespread. Restaurants and hotels cut 2,200 jobs. Governments shed 14,000 positions. And temporary help agencies eliminated 11,000 jobs. Financial services lost 10,000 positions.
Education and health care services, one of the few steady job generators through the downturn, added 13,000 jobs, the fewest in almost two years. Financial services lost 10,000 jobs.
The number of people employed part time, but who would like full-time work, fell sharply to 8.4 million, from 8.9 million in December. When taken together with the people who have given up looking for work, the so-called "underemployment" rate was 16.1 percent. That's down from 16.7 percent the previous month.
Other recent reports show the economy is picking up. Factories are cranking out more goods, retail sales are increasing, and fewer people are applying for unemployment benefits.
Consumers are spending more and businesses are investing in more equipment and machinery. That's expected to lift economic growth to 3.2 percent this year, according to an AP survey of economists, compared to 2.9 percent in 2010.
Mark Hamrick of AP Broadcast contributed to this report.
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But the economy generated only 36,000 net new jobs, the fewest in four months.(AP Photo/Paul Sakuma)
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So it's started. Expect these numbers to keep miraculously trickling up as election season gets nearer.
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NFP +36,000, Huge Miss To +146,000 Expectations....
Zero Hedge ^ | 02/04/2011 | Tyler Durden
...9% Unemployment, Not Seasonally Adjusted U-6 Surges From 16.6% to 17.3%
Highlights
* Change in Private Payrolls (Jan) M/M 50K vs. Exp. 145K (Prev. 113K) * Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Jan) M/M 49K vs. Exp. 10K (Prev. 10K) * Seasonally adjusted U-6 underemployment 16.1% from 16.6% previously * Much more importantly, Not-seasonally adjusted U-6 surged from 16.6% to 17.3%! * The civilian labor force declined from 153,690 to 153,186 * Government workers: from 20,759K to 20,740K * Labor force participation at 64.2%, the lowest since March March 1984 * Part-time workers for economic reasons: 8,407 * Part-time workers for non-economic reasons: 17,552 * Birth/Death adjustment: -339,000
We are now all awaiting Snow Lavorgna to appear and explain how January snow is to blame for genital herpes, among every other bad thing in the world.
(Excerpt) Read more at zerohedge.com ...
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Unemployment falls to 9 pct., nearly 2-year low
Unemployment rate falls to 9 pct., lowest since April 2009
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Unemployment-falls-to-90-pct-apf-1708751437.html?x=0&.v=3
________________________ ________________________ __
In this Feb. 1, 2011 photo, unemployed Jorge Garcia waits for work at the Day Worker Center of Mountain View in Mountain View, Calif. The unemployment rate dropped sharply last month to 9 percent, the lowest level in nearly two years. But the economy generated only 36,000 net new jobs, the fewest in four months.(AP Photo/Paul Sakuma)
Christopher S. Rugaber, AP Economics Writer, On Friday February 4, 2011, 1:02 pm
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The unemployment rate is sinking at the fastest pace in half a century because a surprisingly large number of people say they're finding work.
The decline conflicts with a survey of businesses that showed weak job growth last month. But that survey doesn't count the self-employed and likely undercounts the nation's smallest businesses. Also, harsh weather disrupted business payrolls in January.
The unemployment rate dropped sharply last month to 9 percent, based on a government survey that found that more than a half-million people found work. A separate Labor Department survey of company payrolls showed 36,000 net jobs created -- barely a quarter of the number needed to keep pace with population growth.
The government's survey of households, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate, measures the self-employed, farm workers and household employees. Many economists also say the household survey includes more people who work at small companies.
"What we're finding is that there are a lot of folks that are saying that they are starting new businesses or they are self-employed," said Labor Secretary Hilda Solis. "That doesn't always get reflected in the payrolls survey."
The number of people who called themselves self-employed rose by 165,000 to 9.7 million in January, the report said. That's the highest total since last May.
"It is clear that the drop in unemployment reflected more jobs being added, not a drop in the labor force," said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight.
Harsh snowstorms last month also affected the payroll survey. They cut into construction employment, which fell by 32,000, the most since May. Transportation and warehousing was also likely affected and fell by 38,000 -- the most in a year.
"The thumbprints of the weather were all over this report," said Neil Dutta, an economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Hiring was suppressed last month and will likely rebound in February, he said. "We know the job market is recovering."
In one bright spot, manufacturing added 49,000 jobs, the most since August 1998. And retailers added 28,000 jobs, the largest number in a year.
The unemployment rate has fallen by eight-tenths of a percentage point in the past two months. That's the steepest two-month drop in nearly 53 years.
But part of that drop has occurred as many of those out of work gave up on their job searches. When unemployed people stop looking for jobs, the government no longer counts them as unemployed.
The number of people who have given up looking rose to 2.8 million last month, from 2.6 million in December. About one million of those workers said they were discouraged. The others stopped looking because they returned to school or for other reasons.
And the participation rate, which is the percentage of the working-age population working or looking for work, fell to a 26-year low of 64.2 percent.
The number of people unemployed fell by more than 600,000 in January to 13.9 million. That's still about double the total that were out of work before the recession began in December 2007.
The January jobs report also includes the government's annual revisions to the employment data, which showed that fewer jobs were created in 2010 than previously thought. All told, about 950,000 net new jobs were added last year, down from a previous estimate of 1.1 million. The economy lost about 8 million jobs in 2008 and 2009.
In the past three months, the economy generated an average of 83,000 net jobs per month. That's not enough to keep up with population growth.
The weakness in the government payroll survey was widespread. Restaurants and hotels cut 2,200 jobs. Governments shed 14,000 positions. And temporary help agencies eliminated 11,000 jobs. Financial services lost 10,000 positions.
Education and health care services, one of the few steady job generators through the downturn, added 13,000 jobs, the fewest in almost two years. Financial services lost 10,000 jobs.
The number of people employed part time, but who would like full-time work, fell sharply to 8.4 million, from 8.9 million in December. When taken together with the people who have given up looking for work, the so-called "underemployment" rate was 16.1 percent. That's down from 16.7 percent the previous month.
Other recent reports show the economy is picking up. Factories are cranking out more goods, retail sales are increasing, and fewer people are applying for unemployment benefits.
Consumers are spending more and businesses are investing in more equipment and machinery. That's expected to lift economic growth to 3.2 percent this year, according to an AP survey of economists, compared to 2.9 percent in 2010.
Mark Hamrick of AP Broadcast contributed to this report.
Are you saying someone is LYING in the american government???
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Even Bernie Madoff cant spin these numbers into believability.
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Bump!
Bad report. The media at large is really pumping the hell out of it though. Saying it is a huge gain and a big step in the right direction, blah blah blah.
Lies, all of it. Read the report, look at why it went down and you come to discover that it has nothing to do with job creation.
See, I just did more "analysis" than CNBC has done in 4 years.
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Its sad how gullible people are to believe this crappola.
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Its sad how gullible people are to believe this crappola.
I really don't think the public is buying it. It's the same split as always....Obama's hardcore supporters might "believe" it, but nobody else does.
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The record number of individuals on food stamps also backs up the fact that things are getting better.
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According to straw and the other far left freak show - prosperity is only a few million more on food stamps and ue away.
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Atleast it seems as though they are finally ditching the blame Bush strategy. I wonder what gullable people are still blaming Bush. It is becoming clearer and clearer that this administration inherited an economy that was already passed the panic stage and was poised for a rebound. And they screwed it up.
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According to straw and the other far left freak show - prosperity is only a few million more on food stamps and ue away.
Sad to think anyone would ever believe such a thing.
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The record number of individuals on food stamps also backs up the fact that things are getting better.
The only thing record numbers of food stamp recipients indicates is that it is way too easy to get food stamps.
There are mexicans here driving brand-new Escalades and paying for groceries with EBT cards. Anyone can get food stamps. I have a friend who has a law degree and is a real-estate broker who gets them, and he has a six-figure income.
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The only thing record numbers of food stamp recipients indicates is that it is way too easy to get food stamps.
There are mexicans here driving brand-new Escalades and paying for groceries with EBT cards. Anyone can get food stamps. I have a friend who has a law degree and is a real-estate broker who gets them, and he has a six-figure income.
???
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Unemployment down to 9.0%? On 36,000 new jobs? hmmmmmmm!
coachisright.com ^ | FEBRUARY 7TH, 2011 | Kevin “Coach” Collins
Last Friday the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tried to pull a fast one by announcing that although we “gained” just 36,000 jobs our unemployment rate had fallen a full .4 % to 9.0%. This nonsense was countered by a largely underreported release from Gallup which set the unemployment rate at a more believable 9.8%.
How can we possibly believe these people?
The BLS report also told us that contrary to its own previous statements there were actually 150,000 fewer jobs created during 2010 than they had announced there were.
Another admission from the media/Obama cabal is that the 83,000 average increase of new jobs over the last three months is actually not enough to even keep up with population growth from legal immigration.
Obama’s “Open Borders” policy of allowing 125,000 new legal immigrants and uncounted illegal aliens into our country every month is creating at least 42,000 new unemployed American workers every thirty days.
While the understanding of “unemployment” most of us have is a state of being out of work but looking for employment; the BLS can apparently twist things around so those who are so discouraged they no longer even look for work are not counted in official unemployment statistics.
In the “Newspeak” of Obama’s administration if everyone who is “unemployed” became so discouraged they stopped looking for work, it would report the unemployment rate had fallen to 0% and claim credit for “full employment.”
Unemployed for more than six months
The same BLS produced a statistic in December showing 6.1 million people (40% of all unemployed workers) had been out of work for more than six months, the recognized danger sign for an individual’s prospects for eventual re-employment.... more
(Excerpt) Read more at coachisright.com ...
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U.S. faces $70 billion inflation hit
CNN Fortune ^ | 2/7/2011 | Colin Barr
Rising food and energy prices could deal a $70 billion blow to the economy, but the recovery is likely to limp along anyway.
If the recent run-up in energy and agricultural commodities persists, U.S. consumers will have to shell out $20 billion more for energy and $50 billion more for food this year, Capital Economics estimates.
Among other things, that squeeze on consumer budgets will eat up most of the payroll tax holiday bonus that Americans were supposed to get out of the deal in Congress that extended the Bush tax cuts, at some cost to the deficit. So much for the stimulus bump.
(Excerpt) Read more at finance.fortune.cnn.com ...
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The only thing record numbers of food stamp recipients indicates is that it is way too easy to get food stamps.
There are mexicans here driving brand-new Escalades and paying for groceries with EBT cards. Anyone can get food stamps. I have a friend who has a law degree and is a real-estate broker who gets them, and he has a six-figure income.
While I agree there are those that abuse the system it doesnt take away from the fact that at the core, the amount of people that really rely on them is growing at an alarming rate.
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While I agree there are those that abuse the system it doesnt take away from the fact that at the core, the amount of people that really rely on them is growing at an alarming rate.
There is nobody, and I mean NOBODY who NEEDS foodstamps. When is the last time you DIDN'T see the person at the store useing the welfare card buying the goodies on the side with cash?
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There is nobody, and I mean NOBODY who NEEDS foodstamps. When is the last time you DIDN'T see the person at the store useing the welfare card buying the goodies on the side with cash?
Here where I live you see them buying cigarettes and booze with cash and then buying food with the stamps..... :-\
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Here where I live you see them buying cigarettes and booze with cash and then buying food with the stamps..... :-\
We should have food depots and give these people beans, rice, barley, etc.
If they don't like it, tough shit.
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Here where I live you see them buying cigarettes and booze with cash and then buying food with the stamps..... :-\
That's what I mean. I have a buddy who's big joke is that food stamps allow him to spend more on weed.
It's common around here to see mexican sows buying food for the whole herd on welfare cards, then dropping another $XXX on beer and Marlboros, and loading it all into a brand new SUV in the parking lot.
Food stamps, like almost all other social handout programs, are a joke.
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Pelosi tells me that these are massive job creators! Is she wrong on that?
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We should have food depots and give these people beans, rice, barley, etc.
If they don't like it, tough shit.
YES!!! Makes sense, no?
The poor-people and 'hispanic advocacy' groups have even successfully lobbied in CA to get high end specialty foods and take-out pizzas WIC approved. The local convience store now takes government cards in case a welfare would like to get their energy drinks and corn dogs for free.
End food stamps and create food banks to feed the lazy and immigrants... but that's not what they want.
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YES!!! Makes sense, no?
The poor-people and 'hispanic advocacy' groups have even successfully lobbied in CA to get high end specialty foods and take-out pizzas WIC approved. The local convience store now takes government cards in case a welfare would like to get their energy drinks and corn dogs for free.
End food stamps and create food banks to feed the lazy and immigrants... but that's not what they want.
Exactly. and not to mention it could end the farmers subsidy bullshit, with them being paid not to grow food. Just insane.
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Exactly. and not to mention it could end the farmers subsidy bullshit, with them being paid not to grow food. Just insane.
Mmmmmm..... Funny how the people who are against corporate, large scale farming are the same ones that are against subsidies.
If all the little guys can't get enough payment to stay alive, then all you'll have is a relatively few super-farms running the food supply show.
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I don't mind subsidies as much if it is to get these guys to grow food is more quantities.
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Mmmmmm..... Funny how the people who are against corporate, large scale farming are the same ones that are against subsidies.
If all the little guys can't get enough payment to stay alive, then all you'll have is a relatively few super-farms running the food supply show.
Its the big guys who are getting almost all the subisidies. Not the small guys. But even if it was the small guys getting all the subsidies it would still be a bad idea. The economy is capable of producing enough food without government help. If the small guys cant make a product by themselves then the product should be made by someone else. If the government gives them money its just a waste of resources.
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Its the big guys who are getting almost all the subisidies. Not the small guys. But even if it was the small guys getting all the subsidies it would still be a bad idea. The economy is capable of producing enough food without government help. If the small guys cant make a product by themselves then the product should be made by someone else. If the government gives them money its just a waste of resources.
Yes I realize this, but shitty commodity prices would kill little guys real quick, then all you would be left with is large-scale operations that can move the volume to cover the overhead, or imports from third world sources...
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Yes I realize this, but shitty commodity prices would kill little guys real quick, then all you would be left with is large-scale operations that can move the volume to cover the overhead, or imports from third world sources...
Whats wrong with that? If you cant make a product efficiently enough you shouldnt be making it. Walmart has done more for me than the small mom and pop stores that are comparable to it.
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U.S. Jobs picture - worse than journos tout
CNBC ^ | 2-14-11 | Jeff Cox
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"Why the Unemployment Rate Has Become a Bad Joke"
The national unemployment rate is becoming an increasingly meaningless statistic when it comes to painting a true picture of economic and job growth.
While the December drop from 9.4 percent to 9.0 percent might have looked nice on paper, digging through the real numbers shows the actual jobs picture hasn’t improved at all.
In fact, the situation is at best stagnating, despite headline numbers that look like things are getting better.
At the heart of the unemployment rate deception are the nearly three million Americans counted as “marginally attached” to the labor force. Those folks would take a job if offered but actually aren’t actively looking and thus not counted in the government’s official statistics. There are a million more of them than there were in January 2008, thanks to the lousy job market that seems to be improving only at the margins.
“This is a significant number of people waiting on the sidelines,” Paul Ashworth, chief US economist at Capital Economics in Toronto, wrote in a must-read analysis of the labor force’s participation rate.
“Considering that there are about 7 million more unemployed now than three years ago, it suggests the pool of available labor could be 15% bigger than the unemployment figures suggest,” he concluded.
That puts the headline unemployment rate well north of 10 percent, even as the so-called “real” unemployment number—which takes into account an even broader swath of the working-age population—remains above 16 percent but in a modest decline. Ashworth attributes the drop from the cycle high of 10.1 percent unemployment to the current level “as much due to a contraction in the labor force” as any illusory improvement in the real jobs picture.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...
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People arent going to be fooled by the unemployment rate figure in the long run. THe labor force participation rate cant get worse enough to make the uneployment rate figure go down any further. So its going to take forever for it to go down any further, even IF jobs do start to truly come back.
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People arent going to be fooled by the unemployment rate figure in the long run. THe labor force participation rate cant get worse enough to make the uneployment rate figure go down any further. So its going to take forever for it to go down any further, even IF jobs do start to truly come back.
Labor Force Participation is already at historical lows, the U-3 simply doesn't count people who have stopped looking for work, amongst other things. That's leaving out a lot people.
I get to listen to a lot of talk radio and such while I drive and the facts about U-3 and the real U.E.#'s is getting out.
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Foreclosure Volume SOARS 50% In California And Arizona, As The Moratorium Ends
Gus Lubin | Feb. 15, 2011, 9:42 AM | 762 | 3
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Analysts have been warning for months that the decline in foreclosures was due to the robosigning moratorium, and did not signify an improving housing market.
Well now the shoe has dropped.
Bank foreclosure sales jumped 56.2% in Arizona from December to January, according to ForeclosureRadar.
Bank foreclosure sales jumped 51.2% in California. Oregon and Washington also recorded back-to-bank foreclosure spikes of 33% and 54%. Other regions were not measured by ForeclosureRadar.
Next month things could get worse:
"Despite months of slow sales, we've simply returned to prior levels, which to me indicates banks remain reluctant to aggressively foreclose despite the time it takes to foreclose being at or near record levels," said Sean O'Toole, founder and CEO of ForeclosureRadar. "And large inventories of properties [are] still scheduled for foreclosure sale."
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/foreclosure-radar-moratorium-2011-2#ixzz1E2fQNoR2
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Unemployment benefits jump to 410,000
Yahoo News/AP ^ | February 17, 2011 | AP
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The Labor Department says 410,000 people sought unemployment assistance last week, a jump of 25,000 from the previous week. The rise was much larger than economists had expected.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...
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I would love to know who these economists are that always say bad news is "unexpected" considering the horror show we have leading this nation on all levels.
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February 17, 2011
Gallup Finds U.S. Unemployment Up to 10.0% in Mid-February
Underemployment surged to 19.6% in mid-February from 18.9% at the end of January
by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist
PRINCETON, NJ -- Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, hit 10.0% in mid-February -- up from 9.8% at the end of January.
The percentage of part-time workers who want full-time work worsened considerably in mid-February, increasing to 9.6% of the workforce from 9.1% in January.
Underemployment Surges in Mid-February
Underemployment, in which Gallup combines part-time workers wanting full-time work with the U.S. unemployment rate, surged in mid-February to 19.6% -- mostly as a result of the sharp increase in those working part time but wanting full-time work. Underemployment now stands at basically the same place as it did a year ago (19.8%).
The Jobs Situation Now Versus a Year Ago
The unemployment rate in mid-February is 0.8 percentage points lower than it was at this time a year ago, compared with a 1.1-point improvement at the end of January. This suggests that jobs are less available now than they were in January.
More troubling, however, is the surge in underemployment. On this broader basis, current job conditions are barely improved from what they were at this time last year. Essentially, what has happened over the past year is that some people who were unemployed got part-time jobs but are still looking for full-time work. This is not much to show for a year in which many macro-economic indicators showed improvement.
This is likely why Gallup's self-reported spending remains stuck in "new normal" even as consumer optimism continues to hit new highs. Jobs remain the key to getting the U.S. economy moving, and mid-February underemployment results suggest little or no progress is being made in that regard.
Gallup.com reports results from these indexes in daily, weekly, and monthly averages and in Gallup.com stories. Complete trend data are always available to view and export in the following charts:
Daily: Employment, Economic Confidence and Job Creation, Consumer Spending
Weekly: Employment, Economic Confidence, Job Creation, Consumer Spending
Read more about Gallup's economic measures.
View our economic release schedule.
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February 17, 2011
Gallup Finds U.S. Unemployment Up to 10.0% in Mid-February
Underemployment surged to 19.6% in mid-February from 18.9% at the end of January
by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist
PRINCETON, NJ -- Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, hit 10.0% in mid-February -- up from 9.8% at the end of January.
The percentage of part-time workers who want full-time work worsened considerably in mid-February, increasing to 9.6% of the workforce from 9.1% in January.
Underemployment Surges in Mid-February
Underemployment, in which Gallup combines part-time workers wanting full-time work with the U.S. unemployment rate, surged in mid-February to 19.6% -- mostly as a result of the sharp increase in those working part time but wanting full-time work. Underemployment now stands at basically the same place as it did a year ago (19.8%).
The Jobs Situation Now Versus a Year Ago
The unemployment rate in mid-February is 0.8 percentage points lower than it was at this time a year ago, compared with a 1.1-point improvement at the end of January. This suggests that jobs are less available now than they were in January.
More troubling, however, is the surge in underemployment. On this broader basis, current job conditions are barely improved from what they were at this time last year. Essentially, what has happened over the past year is that some people who were unemployed got part-time jobs but are still looking for full-time work. This is not much to show for a year in which many macro-economic indicators showed improvement.
This is likely why Gallup's self-reported spending remains stuck in "new normal" even as consumer optimism continues to hit new highs. Jobs remain the key to getting the U.S. economy moving, and mid-February underemployment results suggest little or no progress is being made in that regard.
Gallup.com reports results from these indexes in daily, weekly, and monthly averages and in Gallup.com stories. Complete trend data are always available to view and export in the following charts:
Daily: Employment, Economic Confidence and Job Creation, Consumer Spending
Weekly: Employment, Economic Confidence, Job Creation, Consumer Spending
Read more about Gallup's economic measures.
View our economic release schedule.
Wasn't the stimulus supposed to prevent this? ::)
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The stim bill was meant to pay off far left constituencies first and foremost.
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Wasn't the stimulus supposed to prevent this? ::)
Krugman: Stimulus Didn't Fail Because 'It Never Happened'
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/02/14/the-great-abdication/
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Ha ha ha ha - if only we spent more!
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Ha ha ha ha - if only we spent more!
The only one that view him as a genius are the Benny's of the world.
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That's the best part of being a socialist - you can always claim the reason your grand plan failed was was because you did not spend enough. Its a no lose situation unless you are the sucker paying for this lunacy.
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Unemployment Rate Has Become a Bad Joke
CNBC the street ^ | 02/15/11 | Jeff Cox
NEW YORK (CNBC) -- The national unemployment rate is becoming an increasingly meaningless statistic when it comes to painting a true picture of economic and job growth.
While the December drop from 9.4 percent to 9.0 percent might have looked nice on paper, digging through the real numbers shows the actual jobs picture hasn't improved at all.
In fact, the situation is at best stagnating, despite headline numbers that make it appear things are getting better.
At the heart of the unemployment rate deception are the nearly three million Americans counted as "marginally attached" to the labor force. Those folks would take a job if offered, but actually aren't actively looking and thus not counted in the government's official statistics. There are a million more of them than there were in January 2008, thanks to the lousy job market that seems to be improving only at the margins. So when you see a "drop" in the unemployment rate, like we did when the January nonfarm payrolls number came out, it's best to measure carefully the grains of salt with which one takes the official government numbers.
"This is a significant number of people waiting on the sidelines," Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics in Toronto, wrote in a must-read analysis of the labor force's participation rate.
"Considering that there are about 7 million more unemployed now than three years ago, it suggests the pool of available labor could be 15% bigger than the unemployment figures suggest," he concluded.
That puts the headline unemployment rate well north of 10 percent, even as the so-called "real" unemployment number -- which takes into account an even broader swath of the working-age population -- remains above 16 percent but in a modest decline. In fact, Ashworth attributes the drop from the cycle high of 10.1 percent unemployment to the current level "as much due to a contraction in the labor force" as any illusory improvement in the real jobs picture."The 836,000 decline in the labor force since (the October 2009 peak) is only slightly smaller than the 930,000 increase in employment," he wrote. "Over the second half of last year, the labor force shrank by more than employment expanded. ...In other words, the drop in the unemployment rate doesn't reflect an improving job market, but rather a decline in the labor force participation rate."
In fact, the participation rate is shrinking, not growing, falling to 64.2 percent, which is an eye-popping 26-year low. That trend makes it even harder to reconcile a drop in the unemployment rate, and also makes laughable the protests of some economists that the paltry 37,000 nonfarm job growth for January was due to weather. Economists who have held bullish outlooks for the economy are taking notice.
"Never before has such a sharp decline in the unemployment rate been predicated on an ongoing drop in the labor force. The participation rate has crumbled 1.5 (percentage points) since the recovery began," Bank of America Merrill Lynch economists Neil Dutta and Ethan S. Harris wrote in a research note.
"This labor force detachment tell us two things that should give even the most bullish of market participants room for pause: (1) structural unemployment is rising and (2) the potential rate of growth in the U.S. is slowing." What's more, those glibly dismissing inflation threats also could be in for a surprise. "More structural unemployment and weak potential growth imply less slack in the economy and raise an inflation risk," the BofAML team wrote. Just yesterday, Neal Soss, head of the economics team at Credit Suisse, said the drop in people looking for jobs is unlikely to abate for years. "One arithmetical consequence of a subdued labor participation rate is that it requires smaller job gains to achieve the same amount of decline in the unemployment rate. Thus, the decline in the jobless rate tends to overstate the improvement in the labor market," he warned clients.
So what's it all mean?
Extrapolating from Soss's analysis, we should be careful how easily we dismiss future rounds of Fed easing, political climate be damned.
"The Fed seems to share our concerns about the mathematical calculation of the unemployment rate and is beginning to downplay the improvement in that statistic in its assessment of America's jobs problem," Soss wrote. "We expect the Fed to maintain its accommodative policy stance until the unemployment rate drops for a good reason: because monthly job gains move to a much higher plateau."
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Wow - when did I post this thread? This author is only realizing this now?
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the unemployment rate will drop to very low levels soon.. the effective labor participation rate will keep falling to new lows..
These economic statistics are so worthless these days, it's not even funny...