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Getbig Main Boards => Politics and Political Issues Board => Topic started by: MM2K on June 06, 2011, 02:41:26 AM
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Is Obama a Shoo-in for Reelection?By Bruce Bialosky
Monday, June 06, 2011
I’ve been active in national politics since Ronald Reagan’s great victory in 1980, and I can honestly say that I’ve never seen the TV pundits display the level of insanity and stupidity that we see today. Regrettably, this sentiment applies to the press on both sides of the political aisle.
Four years ago, everyone was complaining about the ridiculous length of the Presidential campaigns, each of which seemed to start the morning after the 2006 mid-term elections. The media – with justification – was comparing it to the far shorter campaigns seen in other major democracies. By the time October 2008 rolled around, even a political junkie was praying for the finale of this seemingly unending ordeal. “Dear God,” I muttered every morning, “please bring this endless election to a merciful culmination.“
This time, the principal candidates rationally decided to shorten their campaigns, but they can’t win for losing. Ignoring their own complaints in 2007, the pundits relentlessly speculated about the delays and questioned the conviction of the candidates. Fox News, quoting “Republican sources,” reported that Mitt Romney was debating when he would announce his candidacy. This was right after Romney held a series of well-publicized meetings with potential fundraisers in which he presented a schedule of his activities leading up to his formal entry into the campaign. I posted a comment on Bret Baier’s Facebook page telling him he needs some new “Republican sources,” because the ones being used are way out of touch.
Then there is the insanity centered on which Republicans are running. Sure, I’d love to see Paul Ryan, Marco Rubio or Chris Christie in the race, but all three have said that they won’t be running this time. One of them should be the Vice-Presidential nominee which will definitely electrify the base.
There are at least three candidates – Governors Pawlenty, Huntsman, and Romney – who can win. America may not know who they are now, but they certainly will by next March. By early June, 2012 the nominee will have sufficient name-recognition and stature to take on an incumbent President. As long as none of the aforementioned went to the Schwarzenegger School of Family Relations, each has an excellent shot at defeating Obama on November 6, 2012.
The Democratic pundits have started to argue that none of these potential Republicans candidates has foreign relations experience. It’s not as if the Senator from Illinois had any in 2008, unless you consider his time in Indonesia as a toddler. In addition, I think it’s fair to say that Obama hasn’t really done such a boffo job – after all, the world is in a chaotic state and he hasn’t done a thing to solve any of the problems. Other than killing Bin Laden -- while admirable -- he has absolutely no other foreign policy accomplishments. There isn’t a single foreign leader with whom he has developed a strong relationship. He is too aloof and impersonal, and all of them know that Obama never met a promise that he couldn’t break.
There is the one issue that really counts – the economy – and Obama has a record that only Jimmy Carter would envy. Here are the salient points:
1) The housing market is and will continue to be in shambles. Obama’s policies have done nothing to solve the problem, and most analysts feel that they’ve only made it worse.
2) Employment is stagnant and his policies have done nothing other than discourage job-creation. No one believes that the unemployment rate will be below 8%, and that on its own could be deadly.
3) Most people are very concerned about the ridiculous budget deficits, and almost everyone understands that they are unsustainable. In fact, everyone gets it except for Obama and his cohorts in Congress. Even if the Republicans force spending cuts down his throat, the deficit will still be over a trillion dollars.
4) The continuing deficit, along with a reckless fiscal policy, has caused the resurgence of inflation. Rapidly-rising gas and food prices are eating up the average paycheck for those who still have a job. There is no remedy in sight, even as this President keeps spending at unaffordable levels and prints fake money to pay for it.
5) The Youth Vote will continue to stray from Obama as two more years of college and high school graduates enter a bleak jobs market. They may have thought he was cool in 2008, but money talks and some had higher aspirations than being baristas.
Finally, the Republican candidate will have to compete against a President who, according to the pundits, will have a billion dollars to spend on his reelection. Let’s see him raise it. Frankly, I don’t believe he can. I keep on reading about industries that have pulled away from Obama. Four years ago, he was (to many people) a ray of hope, but now he has his dismal track record to defend. Wall Street donated profusely to Obama in 2008, but they have been blind-sided by him and are pulling back. Jews have repeatedly been slapped in the face, and, even though some clueless liberals will help him raise money, that pipeline is going to be significantly diminished. His only hope to raise a billion dollars is if George Soros and Peter Lewis (Progressive Insurance) write him very, very large checks.
I am a betting man and I am betting that virtually any Republican – except a loon like Ron Paul – can send Obama back to Chicago in November 2012. America will have endured four years of this disastrous experiment, and we will have a new President.
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Its really common sense. Obama won by six points last time in a perfect storm tailor made for a dem. He had no record whatsoever and was able to promise anything and say anything.
Now - he has accumulated a horrific record of failure, alienated many, etc.
Of course the usual suspects will back him, but it won't be enough.
Just look at my misery index thread. Notice how the usual suspects on this board are silent on that?
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Its really common sense. Obama won by six points last time in a perfect storm tailor made for a dem. He had no record whatsoever and was able to promise anything and say anything.
Now - he has accumulated a horrific record of failure, alienated many, etc.
Of course the usual suspects will back him, but it won't be enough.
Just look at my misery index thread. Notice how the usual suspects on this board are silent on that?
Plus, as pitiful as McCain was at times, he was actually AHEAD of Obama in the state-by-state and national polls after he picked Palin. The economic crash, coupled by his suspending his campaign and that STUPID "the fundamentals of our economy are strong" line, sunk McCain's ship.
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Here are the major reasons why Obama WILL lose:
1. The Economy - high unemployment, higher gas and food prices, low home values, record debt
2. The Electoral Math is favoring Republicans
3. The Demographics wont be there for Obama the way they were so extraordinarily in 2008
4. The Political Storm will not be against the GOP like it was in 2008.
5. The GOP candidate (so far it looks like Romney) will be far better than McCain was in 2008 and will have VASTLY more management experience than Obama.
6. Remember that Obama did not win in a landslide in the electoral colllege, and in the popular vote it wasnt even much of a decisive victory. As 3333 said, it was only 6%.
Obama is doomed in 2012. At the very least he has to be considered the underdog right now.
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Plus, as pitiful as McCain was at times, he was actually AHEAD of Obama in the state-by-state and national polls after he picked Palin.
Some getbiggers will dispute that, but you are 100% correct.
I believe the "campaign suspend" was designed to sink the VP debate. Remember that his reschedule plan would have moved the 3rd debate to the VP debate slot, and cancelled the debate altogether. My thinking is that Palin was doing poorly in the preparation at the time, and he thought a quick delay would push the VP debate off the grid.
She ended up reading talking points and winning a "tie" with Biden in that debate, but it could have been disastrous.
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Here are the major reasons why Obama WILL lose:
1. The Economy - high unemployment, higher gas and food prices, low home values, record debt
2. The Electoral Math is favoring Republicans
3. The Demographics wont be there for Obama the way they were so extraordinarily in 2008
4. The Political Storm will not be against the GOP like it was in 2008.
5. The GOP candidate (so far it looks like Romney) will be far better than McCain was in 2008 and will have VASTLY more management experience than Obama.
6. Remember that Obama did not win in a landslide in the electoral colllege, and in the popular vote it wasnt even much of a decisive victory. As 3333 said, it was only 6%.
Obama is doomed in 2012. At the very least he has to be considered the underdog right now.
Not saying much against most of the points, and in general I agree, but the electoral map was HUGELY in Obama's favor.
(http://johnbatchelorshow.com/obama%20electoral.college_.map_.2008_.2012_.png)
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Plus, as pitiful as McCain was at times, he was actually AHEAD of Obama in the state-by-state and national polls after he picked Palin. The economic crash, coupled by his suspending his campaign and that STUPID "the fundamentals of our economy are strong" line, sunk McCain's ship.
Ding ding
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He's definitely in trouble. One thing that shows how bad things are for him is the small bump he got from Osama's killing, and the fact that bump is already gone.
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He's definitely in trouble. One thing that shows how bad things are for him is the small bump he got from Osama's killing, and the fact that bump is already gone.
The misery index is higher than it was during Carter.
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Not saying much against most of the points, and in general I agree, but the electoral map was HUGELY in Obama's favor.
(http://johnbatchelorshow.com/obama%20electoral.college_.map_.2008_.2012_.png)
4 states he can pretty much kiss goodbye are: FL, NC, OH, and VA.
If the GOP candidate can flip NV, NM, and CO, or IN and CO, that's ballgame.
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If the Demo did not already start out with Cali and NY - they would NEVER win.
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He's definitely in trouble. One thing that shows how bad things are for him is the small bump he got from Osama's killing, and the fact that bump is already gone.
3 tied wars and the middle of the 2nd great depression, and he's at 49%? WTF
http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx
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3 tied wars and the middle of the 2nd great depression, and he's at 49%? WTF
http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx
95% ers
Govt workers
Guilt ridden whites
LGBT
Enviro Nazis
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If the Demo did not already start out with Cali and NY - they would NEVER win.
That's why the EC is so valuable, notwitstanding the exodus from NY.
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3 tied wars and the middle of the 2nd great depression, and he's at 49%? WTF
http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx
lol
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4 states he can pretty much kiss goodbye are: FL, NC, OH, and VA.
If the GOP candidate can flip NV, NM, and CO, or IN and CO, that's ballgame.
He can definately kiss VA, NC, and IN goodbye. Those are traditional Red states that he barely won 50-49 in 2008. He probably will also lose Florida considering that the Dems got slaughtered there in 2010, and a generic Republican is currently leading him there by 3 points.
The big key will be Ohio as it was in 2004. Im not sure what the polls say there. If the GOP can get all those states I listed, they only need one more swing state and they win. Romney is currently leading Obama in NH and NV.
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He can definately kiss VA, NC, and IN goodbye. Those are traditional Red states that he barely won 50-49 in 2008. He probably will also lose Florida considering that the Dems got slaughtered there in 2010, and a generic Republican is currently leading him there by 3 points.
The big key will be Ohio as it was in 2004. Im not sure what the polls say there. If the GOP can get all those states I listed, they only need one more swing state and they win. Romney is currently leading Obama in NH and NV.
As bad as the economy is - one of my main issues for 2012 is the SC. next potus will have two or three picks.
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He can definately kiss VA, NC, and IN goodbye. Those are traditional Red states that he barely won 50-49 in 2008. He probably will also lose Florida considering that the Dems got slaughtered there in 2010, and a generic Republican is currently leading him there by 3 points.
The big key will be Ohio as it was in 2004. Im not sure what the polls say there. If the GOP can get all those states I listed, they only need one more swing state and they win. Romney is currently leading Obama in NH and NV.
Considering there was a poll there, saying that the folks would rather have Bush back, than have Obama (last year), I'd say Ohio is likely to flip.
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Considering there was a poll there, saying that the folks would rather have Bush back, than have Obama (last year), I'd say Ohio is likely to flip.
I think Team Obama is greatly underestimating the stay at home factor to where many will simply not vote for anyone or stay home this time around.
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He can definately kiss VA, NC, and IN goodbye. Those are traditional Red states that he barely won 50-49 in 2008. He probably will also lose Florida considering that the Dems got slaughtered there in 2010, and a generic Republican is currently leading him there by 3 points.
The big key will be Ohio as it was in 2004. Im not sure what the polls say there. If the GOP can get all those states I listed, they only need one more swing state and they win. Romney is currently leading Obama in NH and NV.
Keep in mind the impact the unpopularity of the Fla. gov may have on the presidential election.
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Keep in mind the impact the unpopularity of the Fla. gov may have on the presidential election.
Thats pure spin from the far left. He is doing a good job down there. By next year, if they pick Rubio or someone like that florida will go GOP, especially when all the old yentas stay home.
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Thats pure spin from the far left. He is doing a good job down there.
Where are you getting that info? People LOVED rick scott back in november of last year. NOW? Holy crap, everyone hates him. Even the people I know who live by FOX news radio admits Rick Scott is just pissing off too many groups. he's slashing a ton of things that people consider important.
Link to your info that people in FL are happy with Rick Scott? (He won by a landslide but is polling at 29% now)
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Thats pure spin from the far left. He is doing a good job down there. By next year, if they pick Rubio or someone like that florida will go GOP, especially when all the old yentas stay home.
His poll numbers look pretty bad: http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/05/25/2233777/florida-poll-scott-approval-rate.html
But it's way early.
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His poll numbers look pretty bad: http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/05/25/2233777/florida-poll-scott-approval-rate.html
But it's way early.
BB,
I hear thats pure spin from the far left.
Polls and all that. Pure spin.
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He's definitely in trouble. One thing that shows how bad things are for him is the small bump he got from Osama's killing, and the fact that bump is already gone.
True but once the campaign starts rolling don't be surprised if it gets brought up time and time again. Bush won with 9/11 statements and fighting a war so its a nice calling card to have in your pocket.
Overall, the only thing you can criticize Obama for is the economy...however the economy was already in a tailspin before and collapsing. Gas prices were already 4 bucks a gallon, unemployment was raising so its not really much to work with. If Paul Ryan kept his big mouth shut then health care would be another sticking point but unfortunately he had to go after Medicare which is a big no no.
Obama will win again and prob by a much larger margin unless he really fucks up something. A lot of stuff McCain used last year from birth certificate, inexperience, etc is not going to fly this time. And if Mitt Romney wins the GOP, then you can't even argue about his Christian beliefs because Romney isn't a Christian, he's a Mormon.
The only person who could actually beat Obama might be Ron Paul but he won't get the nomination. The GOP is disorganized and their actions have really turned off people in playing politics from holding up nominations to opposing bills just because of partisan tactics.
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True but once the campaign starts rolling don't be surprised if it gets brought up time and time again. Bush won with 9/11 statements and fighting a war so its a nice calling card to have in your pocket.
Overall, the only thing you can criticize Obama for is the economy...however the economy was already in a tailspin before and collapsing. Gas prices were already 4 bucks a gallon, unemployment was raising so its not really much to work with. If Paul Ryan kept his big mouth shut then health care would be another sticking point but unfortunately he had to go after Medicare which is a big no no.
Obama will win again and prob by a much larger margin unless he really fucks up something. A lot of stuff McCain used last year from birth certificate, inexperience, etc is not going to fly this time. And if Mitt Romney wins the GOP, then you can't even argue about his Christian beliefs because Romney isn't a Christian, he's a Mormon.
The only person who could actually beat Obama might be Ron Paul but he won't get the nomination. The GOP is disorganized and their actions have really turned off people in playing politics from holding up nominations to opposing bills just because of partisan tactics.
Pure comedy.
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True but once the campaign starts rolling don't be surprised if it gets brought up time and time again. Bush won with 9/11 statements and fighting a war so its a nice calling card to have in your pocket.
Overall, the only thing you can criticize Obama for is the economy...however the economy was already in a tailspin before and collapsing. Gas prices were already 4 bucks a gallon, unemployment was raising so its not really much to work with. If Paul Ryan kept his big mouth shut then health care would be another sticking point but unfortunately he had to go after Medicare which is a big no no.
Obama will win again and prob by a much larger margin unless he really fucks up something. A lot of stuff McCain used last year from birth certificate, inexperience, etc is not going to fly this time. And if Mitt Romney wins the GOP, then you can't even argue about his Christian beliefs because Romney isn't a Christian, he's a Mormon.
The only person who could actually beat Obama might be Ron Paul but he won't get the nomination. The GOP is disorganized and their actions have really turned off people in playing politics from holding up nominations to opposing bills just because of partisan tactics.
Wha?? Are you serious?
Bush's approval rating was sky high. He lost it when the economy tanked and the war was mismanaged.
Gas was nowhere $4 a gallon when Obama took office.
Obama has already screwed things up. He inherited a mess and made it worse. He really has no significant accomplishments. His signature piece of legislation was an unpopular partisan bill that was shoved down the public's throat, that will probably get invalidated by the supreme court.
Obama cannot run against Bush and the war like he did in 08. He'll have to run on his record. His record stinks. Unemployment is high, the stimulus failed, he broke numerous promises, Obamacare is failure, etc., etc.
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Obama 2012 - "it could have been worse" ha ha h ha!! ! !