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Getbig Main Boards => Politics and Political Issues Board => Topic started by: FarRightLooney on August 05, 2011, 05:14:22 PM
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http://www.businessinsider.com/sp-aaa-rating-us-2011-8 (http://www.businessinsider.com/sp-aaa-rating-us-2011-8)
S&P DOWNGRADE WATCH: Furious Behind The Scenes War Going On Over Threat To Remove US AAA Rating
Joe Weisenthal and Zeke Miller
Aug. 5, 2011, 7:16 PM [eastern time]
A senior administration official confirms to Business Insider that S&P gave notice to the White House that it intended to downgrade the US AAA rating today.
The official confirmed that the White House pushed back hard, claiming that S&P's analysis was off by "trillions," adding that S&P is "reconsidering."
According to WSJ, After the Treasury pointed out the math error to S&P, which re-checked its math and confirmed the error. However this odesn't mean that S&P will change its mind.
The news was first reported by CNBC, ABC, CNN, and POLITICO earlier this evening.
Now to step back for a second, Remember, during the debt ceiling fight, S&P warned that there was a 50/50 chance of a downgrade if spending weren't cut by at least $4 trillion dollars. Both Fitch and Moody's have both come out affirming the US AAA.
The popular thinking on this is that its impact on markets would be less significant than the political impact to Obama.
This summary from CNN Producer Vaughn Sterling, cites John King, and was confirmed by the White House source:
A senior Obama administration official tells CNN tonight that the ratings agency Standard & Poors served notice Friday afternoon it planned to downgrade the US government’s AAA credit rating. But the official said the agency is reconsidering after the administration challenged S&P’s analysis of the government’s revenue and deficit picture.
The source, a senior official involved in the discussions, insisted the agency was off by “trillions” in its economic model.
Update: CNBC confirms that S&P acknowledged its math error, but may downgrade anyway by "revising its rationale"
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Resign!
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Resign!
You can blame the Tea Party for this. Debt ceiling wasn't raised in time, tax increases for the wealthy didn't go through. What did you expect would happen. Everything that economic advisors said would happen if the debt ceiling was raised and tax revenue increased has happenned.
They thought it was a bluff.....and they were wrong....Unbelievable!!!! Now my business may be in trouble because less people will be approved for credit... ::)
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Yawn. The downgrade is due to bamas spending spree, not the debt ceiling debate.
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Well its done. Downgrade is official.
Way to go bama.
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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/05/downgrade-us-standard-and-poors_n_919867.html?ncid=webmail1 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/05/downgrade-us-standard-and-poors_n_919867.html?ncid=webmail1)
U.S. Credit Downgraded: S&P Reduces Rating To AA+
The U.S. government reportedly expects the rating of U.S. debt to be downgraded by credit rating agency Standard and Poor's, according to ABC News. U.S. debt currently holds a triple-A credit rating, the highest possible.
On Tuesday, President Barack Obama signed an agreement to raise the debt ceiling of the U.S., after a political dispute that lasted for months.
UPDATE 7:10 p.m.: S&P is reconsidering its position on a potential U.S. credit downgrade after the Obama administration challenged the credit rating agency's economic model, CNN reports, citing a senior Obama Administration official, who said the analysis was off by "trillions" of dollars.
Politico's Ben White tweets the supposed errors are said to display "incompetence."
UPDATE 8:19 p.m.: S&P downgrades U.S. credit rating to AA+ with negative outlook, Reuters reports.
This is a developing story.
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Obamanomics.
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On the bright side, we might possibly see interest rates rise enough to see a decent return on money in the bank.
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At least this will end obamas credit card. He is like a Harlem crackhead who just won lotto.
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http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/08/05/us-official-says-sp-reconsidering-us-credit-downgrade/
Developing: Credit rating agency Standard & Poor's says it has downgraded the United States' credit rating for the first time in the history of the ratings.
The credit rating agency says that it is cutting the country's top AAA rating by one notch to AA-plus. The credit agency said late Friday that it is making the move because the deficit reduction plan passed by Congress on Tuesday did not go far enough to stabilize the country's debt situation.
A source familiar with the discussions said that the Obama administration believes S&P's analysis contained "deep and fundamental flaws."
Tea Party got what they wanted...and now we're going to have to pay for it
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Just shut the fuck up, you have not one clue what you are talking about
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Just shut the fuck up, you have not one clue what you are talking about
Yep.
"Tax hikes for the wealthy didn't go through"?
Do you know how much those tax hikes would have been worth in revenue? Obviously not, because you wouldn't have spouted off the DNC talking point drivel your masters at MSNBC gave you.
How about 70 billion per year, as stated by the CBO, probably less now that the economy is continuing its downward trajectory. 70 billion per year is nothing compared to the monstrous deficit that Obama has been running. Do you understand that, or are you still blinded? It's been stated on here before, for those paying attention, that overall tax revenue is about 20-22% of total GDP. Now economic growth = stagnant and declining tax revenue. Taxing anyone or anything anymore than it already is will give you dust and ashes.
And to say that a downgrade is "what the Tea Party wanted" is totally stupid and ignorant and proves you can't and won't think for yourself. The ratings agencies have been threatening a downgrade for a bit of time, the cuts weren't enough and the shitty "Debt Bill" that came out of D.C. proves no on is going to take it seriously AND the budget will continue to grow up until it reaches 5.5 trillion or so in 2021.
I explained all of this, as has plenty of other people with a brain in their heads, several times. Please stop being an idiot and pay attention past some political parties talking points beamed into your head via television.
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And wait till obamacare kicks in!
Like I keep saying, this s all intentional. Obama is trying to collapse the nation.
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Yep.
"Tax hikes for the wealthy didn't go through"?
Do you know how much those tax hikes would have been worth in revenue? Obviously not, because you wouldn't have spouted off the DNC talking point drivel your masters at MSNBC gave you.
How about 70 billion per year, as stated by the CBO, probably less now that the economy is continuing its downward trajectory. 70 billion per year is nothing compared to the monstrous deficit that Obama has been running. Do you understand that, or are you still blinded? It's been stated on here before, for those paying attention, that overall tax revenue is about 20-22% of total GDP. Now economic growth = stagnant and declining tax revenue. Taxing anyone or anything anymore than it already is will give you dust and ashes.
And to say that a downgrade is "what the Tea Party wanted" is totally stupid and ignorant and proves you can't and won't think for yourself. The ratings agencies have been threatening a downgrade for a bit of time, the cuts weren't enough and the shitty "Debt Bill" that came out of D.C. proves no on is going to take it seriously AND the budget will continue to grow up until it reaches 5.5 trillion or so in 2021.
I explained all of this, as has plenty of other people with a brain in their heads, several times. Please stop being an idiot and pay attention past some political parties talking points beamed into your head via television.
Making the proper reductions along with increased revenue would have kept the credit rating from being downgraded.
But ultimately, why should you give tax breaks to job creators who aren't creating jobs but shipping them overseas??? The middle class is being eroded slowly by the people so I honestly don't care about them complaining about paying more for making much more.
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And wait till obamacare kicks in!
Like I keep saying, this s all intentional. Obama is trying to collapse the nation.
Yes, another brilliant move by the POTUS. Fuck the economy and jobs, add another entitlement
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Making the proper reductions along with increased revenue would have kept the credit rating from being downgraded.
But ultimately, why should you give tax breaks to job creators who aren't creating jobs but shipping them overseas??? The middle class is being eroded slowly by the people so I honestly don't care about them complaining about paying more for making much more.
What reductions you moron?
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Yes, another brilliant move by the POTUS. Fuck the economy and jobs, add another entitlement
Obamacare needs to go along w Obama and his supporters.
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Making the proper reductions along with increased revenue would have kept the credit rating from being downgraded.
But ultimately, why should you give tax breaks to job creators who aren't creating jobs but shipping them overseas??? The middle class is being eroded slowly by the people so I honestly don't care about them complaining about paying more for making much more.
"Cost of Entry" for start-ups and such is incredibly high in this country. Regulations, permits, inspections, endless pointless bureaucracy, environmental regs, expensive/anti-business tax code etc. The cost to maintain a business or expand a business is incredibly high here as well. Money will flow the path of least resistance. There has also been plenty of bad trade policies and innovation killing, investment wasting, insane tax code as well.
Your thinking is simplistic and naive. Look deeper than the evening talking points propaganda masquerading as "news" or "journalism".
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>:(
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The outlook on the long-term rating is negative. We could lower the long-term rating to 'AA' within the next two years if we see that less reduction in spending than agreed to, higher interest rates, or new fiscal pressures during the period result in a higher general government debt trajectory than we currently assume in our base case.
TORONTO (Standard & Poor's) Aug. 5, 2011--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it lowered its long-term sovereign credit rating on the United States of America to 'AA+' from 'AAA'. Standard & Poor's also said that the outlook on the long-term rating is negative. At the same time, Standard & Poor's affirmed its 'A-1+' short-term rating on the U.S. In addition, Standard & Poor's removed both ratings from CreditWatch, where they were placed on July 14, 2011, with negative implications.
The transfer and convertibility (T&C) assessment of the U.S.--our assessment of the likelihood of official interference in the ability of U.S.-based public- and private-sector issuers to secure foreign exchange for debt service--remains 'AAA'.
We lowered our long-term rating on the U.S. because we believe that the prolonged controversy over raising the statutory debt ceiling and the related fiscal policy debate indicate that further near-term progress containing the growth in public spending, especially on entitlements, or on reaching an agreement on raising revenues is less likely than we previously assumed and will remain a contentious and fitful process. We also believe that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the Administration agreed to this week falls short of the amount that we believe is necessary to stabilize the general government debt burden by the middle of the decade.
Our lowering of the rating was prompted by our view on the rising public debt burden and our perception of greater policymaking uncertainty, consistent with our criteria (see "Sovereign Government Rating Methodology and Assumptions ," June 30, 2011, especially Paragraphs 36-41). Nevertheless, we view the U.S. federal government's other economic, external, and monetary credit attributes, which form the basis for the sovereign rating, as broadly unchanged.
We have taken the ratings off CreditWatch because the Aug. 2 passage of the Budget Control Act Amendment of 2011 has removed any perceived immediate threat of payment default posed by delays to raising the government's debt ceiling. In addition, we believe that the act provides sufficient clarity to allow us to evaluate the likely course of U.S. fiscal policy for the next few years.
The political brinksmanship of recent months highlights what we see as America's governance and policymaking becoming less stable, less effective, and less predictable than what we previously believed. The statutory debt ceiling and the threat of default have become political bargaining chips in the debate over fiscal policy. Despite this year's wide-ranging debate, in our view, the differences between political parties have proven to be extraordinarily difficult to bridge, and, as we see it, the resulting agreement fell well short of the comprehensive fiscal consolidation program that some proponents had envisaged until quite recently. Republicans and Democrats have only been able to agree to relatively modest savings on discretionary spending while delegating to the Select Committee decisions on more comprehensive measures. It appears that for now, new revenues have dropped down on the menu of policy options. In addition, the plan envisions only minor policy changes on Medicare and little change in other entitlements, the containment of which we and most other independent observers regard as key to long-term fiscal sustainability.
Our opinion is that elected officials remain wary of tackling the structural issues required to effectively address the rising U.S. public debt burden in a manner consistent with a 'AAA' rating and with 'AAA' rated sovereign peers (see Sovereign Government Rating Methodology and Assumptions," June 30, 2011, especially Paragraphs 36-41). In our view, the difficulty in framing a consensus on fiscal policy weakens the government's ability to manage public finances and diverts attention from the debate over how to achieve more balanced and dynamic economic growth in an era of fiscal stringency and private-sector deleveraging (ibid). A new political consensus might (or might not) emerge after the 2012 elections, but we believe that by then, the government debt burden will likely be higher, the needed medium-term fiscal adjustment potentially greater, and the inflection point on the U.S. population's demographics and other age-related spending drivers closer at hand (see "Global Aging 2011: In The U.S., Going Gray Will Likely Cost Even More Green, Now," June 21, 2011).
Standard & Poor's takes no position on the mix of spending and revenue measures that Congress and the Administration might conclude is appropriate for putting the U.S.'s finances on a sustainable footing.
The act calls for as much as $2.4 trillion of reductions in expenditure growth over the 10 years through 2021. These cuts will be implemented in two steps: the $917 billion agreed to initially, followed by an additional $1.5 trillion that the newly formed Congressional Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction is supposed to recommend by November 2011. The act contains no measures to raise taxes or otherwise enhance revenues, though the committee could recommend them.
he act further provides that if Congress does not enact the committee's recommendations, cuts of $1.2 trillion will be implemented over the same time period. The reductions would mainly affect outlays for civilian discretionary spending, defense, and Medicare. We understand that this fall-back mechanism is designed to encourage Congress to embrace a more balanced mix of expenditure savings, as the committee might recommend.
We note that in a letter to Congress on Aug. 1, 2011, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated total budgetary savings under the act to be at least $2.1 trillion over the next 10 years relative to its baseline assumptions. In updating our own fiscal projections, with certain modifications outlined below, we have relied on the CBO's latest "Alternate Fiscal Scenario" of June 2011, updated to include the CBO assumptions contained in its Aug. 1 letter to Congress. In general, the CBO's "Alternate Fiscal Scenario" assumes a continuation of recent Congressional action overriding existing law.
We view the act's measures as a step toward fiscal consolidation. However, this is within the framework of a legislative mechanism that leaves open the details of what is finally agreed to until the end of 2011, and Congress and the Administration could modify any agreement in the future. Even assuming that at least $2.1 trillion of the spending reductions the act envisages are implemented, we maintain our view that the U.S. net general government debt burden (all levels of government combined, excluding liquid financial assets) will likely continue to grow. Under our revised base case fiscal scenario--which we consider to be consistent with a 'AA+' long-term rating and a negative outlook--we now project that net general government debt would rise from an estimated 74% of GDP by the end of 2011 to 79% in 2015 and 85% by 2021. Even the projected 2015 ratio of sovereign indebtedness is high in relation to those of peer credits and, as noted, would continue to rise under the act's revised policy settings.
Compared with previous projections, our revised base case scenario now assumes that the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts, due to expire by the end of 2012, remain in place. We have changed our assumption on this because the majority of Republicans in Congress continue to resist any measure that would raise revenues, a position we believe Congress reinforced by passing the act. Key macroeconomic assumptions in the base case scenario include trend real GDP growth of 3% and consumer price inflation near 2% annually over the decade.
Our revised upside scenario--which, other things being equal, we view as consistent with the outlook on the 'AA+' long-term rating being revised to stable--retains these same macroeconomic assumptions. In addition, it incorporates $950 billion of new revenues on the assumption that the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts for high earners lapse from 2013 onwards, as the Administration is advocating. In this scenario, we project that the net general government debt would rise from an estimated 74% of GDP by the end of 2011 to 77% in 2015 and to 78% by 2021.
Our revised downside scenario--which, other things being equal, we view as being consistent with a possible further downgrade to a 'AA' long-term rating--features less-favorable macroeconomic assumptions, as outlined below and also assumes that the second round of spending cuts (at least $1.2 trillion) that the act calls for does not occur. This scenario also assumes somewhat higher nominal interest rates for U.S. Treasuries. We still believe that the role of the U.S. dollar as the key reserve currency confers a government funding advantage, one that could change only slowly over time, and that Fed policy might lean toward continued loose monetary policy at a time of fiscal tightening. Nonetheless, it is possible that interest rates could rise if investors re-price relative risks. As a result, our alternate scenario factors in a 50 basis point (bp)-75 bp rise in 10-year bond yields relative to the base and upside cases from 2013 onwards. In this scenario, we project the net public debt burden would rise from 74% of GDP in 2011 to 90% in 2015 and to 101% by 2021.
Our revised scenarios also take into account the significant negative revisions to historical GDP data that the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced on July 29. From our perspective, the effect of these revisions underscores two related points when evaluating the likely debt trajectory of the U.S. government. First, the revisions show that the recent recession was deeper than previously assumed, so the GDP this year is lower than previously thought in both nominal and real terms. Consequently, the debt burden is slightly higher. Second, the revised data highlight the sub-par path of the current economic recovery when compared with rebounds following previous post-war recessions. We believe the sluggish pace of the current economic recovery could be consistent with the experiences of countries that have had financial crises in which the slow process of debt deleveraging in the private sector leads to a persistent drag on demand. As a result, our downside case scenario assumes relatively modest real trend GDP growth of 2.5% and inflation of near 1.5% annually going forward.
When comparing the U.S. to sovereigns with 'AAA' long-term ratings that we view as relevant peers--Canada, France, Germany, and the U.K.--we also observe, based on our base case scenarios for each, that the trajectory of the U.S.'s net public debt is diverging from the others. Including the U.S., we estimate that these five sovereigns will have net general government debt to GDP ratios this year ranging from 34% (Canada) to 80% (the U.K.), with the U.S. debt burden at 74%. By 2015, we project that their net public debt to GDP ratios will range between 30% (lowest, Canada) and 83% (highest, France), with the U.S. debt burden at 79%. However, in contrast with the U.S., we project that the net public debt burdens of these other sovereigns will begin to decline, either before or by 2015.
Standard & Poor's transfer T&C assessment of the U.S. remains 'AAA'. Our T&C assessment reflects our view of the likelihood of the sovereign restricting other public and private issuers' access to foreign exchange needed to meet debt service. Although in our view the credit standing of the U.S. government has deteriorated modestly, we see little indication that official interference of this kind is entering onto the policy agenda of either Congress or the Administration. Consequently, we continue to view this risk as being highly remote.
The outlook on the long-term rating is negative. As our downside alternate fiscal scenario illustrates, a higher public debt trajectory than we currently assume could lead us to lower the long-term rating again. On the other hand, as our upside scenario highlights, if the recommendations of the Congressional Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction--independently or coupled with other initiatives, such as the lapsing of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts for high earners--lead to fiscal consolidation measures beyond the minimum mandated, and we believe they are likely to slow the deterioration of the government's debt dynamics, the long-term rating could stabilize at 'AA+'.
On Monday, we will issue separate releases concerning affected ratings in the funds, government-related entities, financial institutions, insurance, public finance, and structured finance sectors.
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"Cost of Entry" for start-ups and such is incredibly high in this country. Regulations, permits, inspections, endless pointless bureaucracy, environmental regs, expensive/anti-business tax code etc. The cost to maintain a business or expand a business is incredibly high here as well. Money will flow the path of least resistance. There has also been plenty of bad trade policies and innovation killing, investment wasting, insane tax code as well.
Your thinking is simplistic and naive. Look deeper than the evening talking points propaganda masquerading as "news" or "journalism".
I've been running a business for 10 years so I already know that. My point is that disaster struck because the Tea Party forced the GOP to do something that was errational and completely irresponsible to the point where we came within hours of defaulting on our bill obligations and for that reason among the deal signed was haphazard and rushed, the S&P responded with a credit downgrade.
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I've been running a business for 10 years so I already know that. My point is that disaster struck because the Tea Party forced the GOP to do something that was errational and completely irresponsible to the point where we came within hours of defaulting on our bill obligations and for that reason among the deal signed was haphazard and rushed, the S&P responded with a credit downgrade.
You be ashamed of yourself for being so dumb. Bam a has been on a reckless path for years now!
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US rating downgraded.. >:(
Meanwhile, in Italy S&P and Moody's were raided...
Aug 4 (Reuters) - Italian prosecutors have seized documents at the offices of rating agencies Moody's and Standard & Poor's in a probe over suspected "anomalous" fluctuations in Italian share prices, a prosecutor said on Thursday.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/04/us-italy-ratingagencies-prosecutors-idUSTRE7734FR20110804
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You can blame the Tea Party for this. Debt ceiling wasn't raised in time, tax increases for the wealthy didn't go through. What did you expect would happen. Everything that economic advisors said would happen if the debt ceiling was raised and tax revenue increased has happenned.
They thought it was a bluff.....and they were wrong....Unbelievable!!!! Now my business may be in trouble because less people will be approved for credit... ::)
No, it was not the Tea Party. It was years and years of flooding USA with third world populations, exporting out all the jobs overseas, massive government growth, unchecked and illegal wars overseas, massive welfare entitlements etc. etc.
You ain't seen nothing yet. The more third world immigrants entering the USA the more it will become a third world. Look for the USA to become a massive failure. What we need is more white people and less muds. Sorry, but it is the truth.
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As soon as the irish left my hood, it went to hell.
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You can blame the Tea Party for this. Debt ceiling wasn't raised in time, tax increases for the wealthy didn't go through. What did you expect would happen. Everything that economic advisors said would happen if the debt ceiling was raised and tax revenue increased has happenned.
They thought it was a bluff.....and they were wrong....Unbelievable!!!! Now my business may be in trouble because less people will be approved for credit... ::)
It's amazing that you blame the only group that had the right solution. As a matter of fact, not raising the debt ceiling would have been the only way to avoid a credit downgrade.
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It's amazing that you blame the only group that had the right solution. As a matter of fact, not raising the debt ceiling would have been the only way to avoid a credit downgrade.
95ers are brain dead dopes with one purpose, run and provide cover for bam bam.
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I've been running a business for 10 years so I already know that. My point is that disaster struck because the Tea Party forced the GOP to do something that was errational and completely irresponsible to the point where we came within hours of defaulting on our bill obligations and for that reason among the deal signed was haphazard and rushed, the S&P responded with a credit downgrade.
Oh brother. ::)
Apparently you know as much about the English language and economics as you do about contest prep.
Disaster was imminent because our revenue is vastly outweighed by our debt you stupid fuck. Throw in the fact that geniuses such as yourself proposed tax hikes in the middle of an economic downturn, refuse to allow entitlement reform (our biggest unfunded liability) and never even submitted a budget despite being in control of two houses for almost five years.
The Tea Party had the right idea-- What mindless baboons such as yourself can't digest is the fact that the downgrade was going to happen anyway. The President and the Democratic party dont have a fucking clue on how to create jobs or reduce the deficit. In 2012 we are finally going to have an adult running the country.
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CBS: Dems, GOP react to debt downgrade [ copy it fast! ]
cbsnews.com ^ | Aug 5 2011
Posted on August 6, 2011 1:19:22 AM EDT by NoLibZone
(CBS/AP) Following the news Friday of Standard and Poor's downgrade on the U.S. debt, several politicians from both sides of the aisle offered their reactions.
Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid released a statement: "This makes the work of the joint committee all the more important, and shows why leaders should appoint members who will approach the committee's work with an open mind -- instead of hardliners who have already ruled out the balanced approach that the markets and rating agencies like S&P are demanding."
Reid was referring to the special bipartisan congressional committee -- made up of six Democrats and six Republicans -- assigned to the task of recommending further deficit and debt reduction ideas.
S&P downgrades U.S. debt S & P statement on U.S. debt downgrade Treasury Dept.: Downgrade flawed by $2-Trillion error
Republican Speaker of the House John Boehner offered his take on the downgrade in a statement: "This decision by S&P is the latest consequence of the out-of-control spending that has taken place in Washington for decades. The spending binge has resulted in job-destroying economic uncertainty and now threatens to send destructive ripple effects across our credit markets."
He added: "Republicans remain committed to ensuring the United States always meets its obligations. Though we are outnumbered in Washington, we will continue to press Democrats to join us in taking meaningful steps to rein in our debt and deficits."
Also reacting to the news was U.S. Sen. Mark Kirk, who says President Barack Obama should recall Congress to improve the recently-passed $2 trillion deficit reduction plan.
The Illinois Republican says a recall of Congress by the president would reassure the markets. The Dow fell 5.8 percent this week, losing 513 points on Thursday alone.
Kirk said he believes the nation faces difficult times ahead, noting interest rates on home and auto loans and credit cards could go up "if we just sit back and watch things happen."
Some of the 2012 Republican presidential hopefuls also chimed in. Former House speaker Newt Gingrinch offered his opinion on the debt downgrade via his Twitter account: "The Obama disaster continues. Highest food stamp level and lowest credit rating in history in the same 24 hours."
Mitt Romney, another GOP candidate with an eye towards the White House, said on Friday: "America's creditworthiness just became the latest casualty in President Obama's failed record of leadership on the economy. Standard & Poor's rating downgrade is a deeply troubling indicator of our country's decline under President Obama."
Romney's fellow challenger, Michele Bachmann, said of President Obama: "This President has destroyed the credit rating of the United States through his failed economic policies and his inability to control government spending by raising the debt ceiling."
A Treasury Department spokesperson commented about S&P's decision: "A judgment flawed by a $2-trillion error speaks for itself."
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Impeach this stupid fuck now!