Getbig.com: American Bodybuilding, Fitness and Figure
Getbig Main Boards => Politics and Political Issues Board => Topic started by: Fury on November 21, 2011, 04:14:35 PM
-
Economist Sees 1-in-7 Chance of Obama Re-election
An academic model that has correctly predicted every presidential election winner since Ronald Reagan in 1980 suggests that President Obama will suffer a withering and historic defeat next year.
In the model, which considers the political impact of the economy and war deaths to determine the "bread and peace" effect, Obama is slated to win just 44.1 percent of the vote in a two-party election next year.
[Vote now: Will Obama be a one-term president?]
"The Bread and Peace Model," created by economist Douglas Hibbs, suggests that Obama's possible defeat will compare to Jimmy Carter's 1980 crushing fall to Reagan and Adlai Stevenson's 1952 loss to Dwight Eisenhower, given that economic conditions stay exactly as they are.
Speaking at Georgetown University's Mortara Center for International Studies, Hibbs said that his formula combines economic conditions, or the "bread," with military casualties, or the "peace," of the preceding presidential term, to determine the election outcome. It uses the growth of per-capita personal disposable income and the number of military personnel per million Americans who died in an unprovoked combat.
He argues that the two issues have driven every election since World War II, more than scandals and social issues. [See photos of the Obamas behind the scenes.]
On the peace front, Hibbs says that while tragic, the war losses in Afghanistan won't cost Obama much, likely just .25 percent of vote.
But the slumping economy will hit the president hard. Hibbs said that for Obama to win, economic growth will have to be at 4 percent or better, more than twice what it is now. [See a slide show of 10 reasons Obama should be re-elected.]
As a result, he predicts that Obama has just a 1-in-7 chance to win.
http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/washington-whispers/2011/11/21/economist-sees-1-in-7-chance-of-obama-re-election?s_cid=rss:washington-whispers:economist-sees-1-in-7-chance-of-obama-re-election
Now 180 will come swooping into this thread trying to discredit it with his usual "polls and predictions don't matter, br0s" only to post a poll showing Obama winning less than 72 hours from now.
-
The week before the 2012 election...
Obama will personally drown bin laden in a kiddy pool after discovering him at a BBQ at at Mitt Romney's estate, where he had been hiding.
Game changer, baby!
-
meh
obama probably has a better chance of being re-elected than he had of being elected in the first place
who the heck is going to vote for a dude named Barack Husein Obama
-
meh
obama probably has a better chance of being re-elected than he had of being elected in the first place
who the heck is going to vote for a dude named Barack Husein Obama?
Idiots like you. That comprises roughly 44% of the electorate. He still loses by a landslide in 2012. Hope this helps.
-
Idiots like you. That comprises roughly 44% of the electorate. He still loses by a landslide in 2012. Hope this helps.
How fucking dare you insult Bubble Boy. He would have been vindicated if only we had just spent a few trillion more. Fuck you realists.
Neo-Keynesianism 4 LYF3!
-
Idiots like you. That comprises roughly 44% of the electorate. He still loses by a landslide in 2012. Hope this helps.
it helps alot, thanks
there is no way anyone is going to vote for Barack Husein Obama
-
meh
obama probably has a better chance of being re-elected than he had of being elected in the first place
who the heck is going to vote for a dude named Barack Husein Obama
goodness I hope your joking...
more and more everyday ppl are coming around to what many have known for a while obama and his policies are not good for America.
What is scary is that there might be another backlash like the one that got obama elected and it could just swing the opposite direction.
-
goodness I hope your joking...
more and more everyday ppl are coming around to what many have known for a while obama and his policies are not good for America.
What is scary is that there might be another backlash like the one that got obama elected and it could just swing the opposite direction.
what part do you think I'm joking about?
-
what part do you think I'm joking about?
him probably having an easier time this go around than last
-
him probably having an easier time this go around than last
I didn't say easier
I said "a better chance" than he did the first time
his odds were worse the first time around
-
I didn't say easier
I said "a better chance" than he did the first time
his odds were worse the first time around
Oh please. 2008 was the perfect storm for the. GOP.
-
Oh please. 2008 was the perfect storm for the. GOP.
no doubt
the Repubs fucked this country up big time
no argument from me there
-
no doubt
the Repubs fucked this country up big time
no argument from me there
Shame the Dems quadruple-downed on every one of their destructive policies.
I find it odd you never mention Bawney Fwank and Chris Dodd, though. Not that it matters as you're a neo-Keynesian retard who doesn't know his ass from a hole in the ground. :)
What is with guys like you and Blacken? You're clearly lacking in the intellectual firepower department yet you insist on discussing politics. Wouldn't topics like American Idol and Kim Kardashian be more up your alley?
-
Shame the Dems quadruple-downed on every one of their destructive policies.
I find it odd you never mention Bawney Fwank and Chris Dodd, though. Not that it matters as you're a neo-Keynesian retard who doesn't know his ass from a hole in the ground. :)
What is with guys like you and Blacken? You're clearly lacking in the intellectual firepower department yet you insist on discussing politics. Wouldn't topics like American Idol and Kim Kardashian be more up your alley?
I've mentioned both
I find it odd you would bring that up, get it wrong, and think it means something
putting all that aside
can you give me some more details on the quadrupling down part?
-
I've mentioned both
I find it odd you would bring that up, get it wrong, and think it means something
putting all that aside
can you give me some more details on the quadrupling down part?
Bailouts, crony capitalism, non prosecution of crimes, spending like mad, etc etc.
-
If the choice comes down to Newt Vs. Obama I'd rather take an axe to the face. I won't vote for either one.
-
If the choice comes down to Newt Vs. Obama I'd rather take an axe to the face. I won't vote for either one.
Ron Paul 2012.
Otherwise, you deserve 4 more of obama. Because with anyone but RP, you're just voting for more of big business, big war, more borrowing, and obamacare (newt and romney alike on that issue with the mandate)
Cue "but 240 disageres with Ron paul on blah blah jizz blah blah wahh blah blah".
-
If the choice comes down to Newt Vs. Obama I'd rather take an axe to the face. I won't vote for either one.
yes but what if it was an axe to the nuts, then what would you pick?
-
If the choice comes down to Newt Vs. Obama I'd rather take an axe to the face. I won't vote for either one.
Just tell me the time and place and I will bring the ax.
-
Just tell me the time and place and I will bring the ax.
did I piss in your corn flakes or some shit?