Getbig.com: American Bodybuilding, Fitness and Figure
Getbig Main Boards => Politics and Political Issues Board => Topic started by: Soul Crusher on December 19, 2011, 06:02:32 AM
-
Gingrich Collapses in Iowa as Ron Paul Surges to the Front
http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics/2011/12/gingrich-collapses-iowa-ron-paul-surges-front/46360
AP Share Print article Email article Comments (45) Comments (45) Dashiell Bennett 11,587 Views 7:26 AM ET A new poll from Public Policy Polling shows that Ron Paul has taken the lead in the Iowa caucus race, while Newt Gingrich's support is fading fast. A different Gallup poll shows Gringrich still holding the lead, but slipping, while The New York Times has Paul in the lead as well.
Gingrich has seen his numbers in the PPP poll drop from 27 percent to 14 percent in just three weeks, while his favorability rating is now split at 46 percent for to 47 percent against, the worst of any candidate not named Jon Huntsman. That's quite a fall for someone who looked to be running away with the state and taking charge on the national level.
Mitt Romney has also seen his numbers tick up slightly (to 20%), putting him just behind Paul (23%) for second place. The poll measured voters who are planning to vote in the Republican caucus.
Perhaps the most telling secondary question was, "Do you think Newt Gingrich has strong principles?" Only 36 percent say that he does, but for Paul that number was 73 percent.
The bad news for Paul, however, is that when asked for their second choice for President, only 9% said they would vote for him after their preferred candidate. That means if supporters of any of the second-tier candidates sense defeat and decided to abandon their choice at the last minute, those votes are more likely to go to Romney. Even if Romney doesn't win, the stronger than expected showing could be the snowball that starts a primary avalanche for him.
One other tidbit from the PPP poll, the first question about Barack Obama asked if the respondents think he was born in the United States. Fifty-two percent either said he was not or they're not sure.
Update: Here's an alternate take on the PPP poll.
-
nice!!
-
Wait a minute. Who was saying he hurt himself big time at the debates and was poo pooing the way he was handling his campaign?
-
Wait a minute. Who was saying he hurt himself big time at the debates and was poo pooing the way he was handling his campaign?
I may be wrong on that. I admit that - but i think he would be far far far far ahead of everyone if he started attacking obama more. Just my .02
-
I may be wrong on that. I admit that - but i think he would be far far far far ahead of everyone if he started attacking obama more. Just my .02
Slow and steady and but solid as a rock.
-
I may be wrong on that. I admit that - but i think he would be far far far far ahead of everyone if he started attacking obama more. Just my .02
you're an angry aggressive dude. You see carl paladino and say "wow, that's a determined dude who loves america".
The rest of us see him and say "Wow, take that bat away from the psychopath before he smashes another vase."
Regular voters are waking up to ron paul.
-
you're an angry aggressive dude. You see carl paladino and say "wow, that's a determined dude who loves america".
The rest of us see him and say "Wow, take that bat away from the psychopath before he smashes another vase."
Regular voters are waking up to ron paul.
For the GE yes - but he needs to win the GOP primary first.
-
you're an angry aggressive dude.
no.. he isnt.. ive seen his type.. soft as charmin 1 ply
-
no.. he isnt.. ive seen his type.. soft as charmin 1 ply
315 x 10 at 210 body weight last week, no roids nothing.
-
315 x 10 at 210 body weight last week, no roids nothing.
So.... you probably never been in a fist fight in your life..
-
So.... you probably never been in a fist fight in your life..
LOL. False homey -
Did Oyama Karate for 5 years - bare knuckle
BJJ for about 2 years. Boring as shit and wortheless in the street for most people
Been doing present stuff for 5 years - I sent you the pm's on that. Better than anything i have done previous.
Been in a few scraps - but it ends so quickly it never gets messy. Also I try to avoid fights now since I have a gun on me most times and its not worth the hassle.
-
LOL. False homey -
Did Oyama Karate for 5 years - bare knuckle
BJJ for about 2 years. Boring as shit and wortheless in the street for most people
Been doing present stuff for 5 years - I sent you the pm's on that. Better than anything i have done previous.
Been in a few scraps - but it ends so quickly it never gets messy. Also I try to avoid fights now since I have a gun on me most times and its not worth the hassle.
LMAO.. OK Chuck Norris
-
LMAO.. OK Chuck Norris
Whatever - i sent you the pm's - you know what where I go.
-
Whatever - i sent you the pm's - you know what where I go.
What?
-
Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus
Polling Data
Poll Date Sample Paul Romney Gingrich Perry Bachmann Santorum Huntsman Cain Spread
RCP Average 12/13 - 12/18 -- 21.7 20.3 15.7 12.0 9.7 6.3 4.3 -- Paul +1.4
Insider Advantage 12/18 - 12/18 391 LV 24 18 13 16 10 3 4 -- Paul +6
PPP (D) 12/16 - 12/18 597 LV 23 20 14 10 10 10 4 -- Paul +3
Rasmussen Reports 12/13 - 12/13 750 LV 18 23 20 10 9 6 5 -- Romney +3
-
Iowa - Insider Advantage Poll (Paul-24, Romney-18, Perry-16, Newt-13, Bachmann-10)
.realclearpolitics.com ^ | 12/19/2011 | RCP
Posted on Monday, December 19, 2011 12:44:53 PM by TBBT
Paul - 24 Romney - 18 Perry - 16 Newt - 13 Bachmann - 10 Huntsman - 4 Santorum - 3
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Damn - this thing might be kicking off.
-
I think Bachmann should drop out and if she really cares about the constitution like she says, she should ask her followers to back Paul.
-
I think Bachmann should drop out and if she really cares about the constitution like she says, she should ask her followers to back Paul.
i honestly could see her getting behind ron paul, if she does end up 4th or 5th in iowa.
she's been tea party for 20 years.
-
I think Bachmann should drop out and if she really cares about the constitution like she says, she should ask her followers to back Paul.
I think Palin might endorse RP from what I am gathering. If she does - Paul will surge.
-
Ron Paul Takes Lead In Iowa
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/19/2011 11:32 -0500
www.zerohedge.com
When we learned on Saturday that the Des Moines Register, owned by Gannett - whose Chairman just happens to be a Private Equity firm head, and worked at Citigroup for most of her career, has endorsed Mitt Romney for president we said that this development "while likely set to provide a very short-term boost to Romney's chances, it is the baseless ongoing accusations against Ron Paul that will likely solidify the groundswell behind the Texan, with such desperate platitudes as "Ron Paul's libertarian ideology would lead to economic chaos and isolationism, neither of which this nation can afford." As it turns out, according to the latest Public Policy Polling data we can skip the kneejerk reaction and go straight to the after effect, because as of the latest polling, Ron Paul has finally taken the lead in Iowa. Granted this is just one of many polling organizations, and potentially it may be biased, but the bottom line is that often time reality (objective and subjective) is self-reinforcing. And when the US public realizes that the only candidate who deserves to be in the White House has a running chance, they will flock to him. Suddenly backing Ron Paul may just become the next cool thing. As for the Gingrich "honeymoon", it was over well before the nth divorce (pardon the pun). At this point we can only hope that the electoral game of reverse American Idol where the poll head is voted off in a week or so stops with Paul. However, with Perry, Bachmann, Romney and Gingrich already having been voted off, the only possible dark horse now remains Huntsman - does he have a running chance against Paul?
From the PPP:
Newt Gingrich's campaign is rapidly imploding, and Ron Paul has now taken the lead in Iowa. He's at 23% to 20% for Mitt Romney, 14% for Gingrich, 10% each for Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann, and Rick Perry, 4% for Jon Huntsman, and 2% for Gary Johnson.
Gingrich has now seen a big drop in his Iowa standing two weeks in a row. His share of the vote has gone from 27% to 22% to 14%. And there's been a large drop in his personal favorability numbers as well from +31 (62/31) to +12 (52/40) to now -1 (46/47). Negative ads over the last few weeks have really chipped away at Gingrich's image as being a strong conservative- now only 36% of voters believe that he has 'strong principles,' while 43% think he does not.
Paul's ascendancy is a sign that perhaps campaigns do matter at least a little, in a year where there has been a lot of discussion about whether they still do in Iowa. 22% of voters think he's run the best campaign in the state compared to only 8% for Gingrich and 5% for Romney. The only other candidate to hit double digits on that question is Bachmann at 19%. Paul also leads Romney 26-5 (with Gingrich at 13%) with the 22% of voters who say it's 'very important' that a candidate spends a lot of time in Iowa. Finally Paul leads Romney 29-19 among the 26% of likely voters who have seen one of the candidates in person.
Paul's base of support continues to rely on some unusual groups for a Republican contest. Among voters under 45 he's at 33% to 16% for Romney and 11% for Gingrich. He's really going to need that younger than normal electorate because with seniors Romney's blowing him out 31-15 with Gingrich coming in 2nd at 18%. Paul is also cleaning up 35-14 with the 24% of voters who identify as either Democrats or independents. Romney is actually ahead 22-19 with GOP voters. Young people and non-Republicans are an unusual coalition to hang your hat on in Iowa, and it will be interesting to see if Paul can actually pull it off.
Average:
4.8
Your rating: None Average: 4.8 (20 votes)
-
I think Palin might endorse RP from what I am gathering. If she does - Paul will surge.
palin would LOVE to be relevant again, ,after she couldn't sell Todd's snowmobile show.
She'd LOVE to get on the RP bandwagon, take credit for being kingmaker, so her bots could say "Look, ,she endorsed ron paul, and now he's in the lead..."
-
palin would LOVE to be relevant again, ,after she couldn't sell Todd's snowmobile show.
She'd LOVE to get on the RP bandwagon, take credit for being kingmaker, so her bots could say "Look, ,she endorsed ron paul, and now he's in the lead..."
She endorses paul.....its the kiss of death
-
Meh. Romney conceded Iowa a long time ago, and still might win it.
-
She endorses paul.....its the kiss of death
LOL - did you change your registration yet? BTW - what do your fellow bruthas feel about RP?
-
Meh. Romney conceded Iowa a long time ago, and still might win it.
I wonder why his team is unleashing millions of dollars there all of a sudden that it's winnable?
http://articles.latimes.com/2011/dec/09/nation/la-na-1210-romney-strategy-20111210
December 09, 2011|By Seema Mehta, Los Angeles Times
Reporting from Cedar Rapids, Iowa — Mitt Romney and his supporters moved to prop up his faltering campaign Friday, unleashing millions of dollars of ads across Iowa and trying to connect personally with the voters who will cast the nation's first ballots in January.
A Romney-sympathetic "super PAC" — an independent group that can raise unlimited sums — launched a $3.1-million, three-week ad buy across the state. The 30-second television commercial contrasts Romney's job-creation record with President Obama's.
-
Meh. Romney conceded Iowa a long time ago, and still might win it.
BB, you should watch Morning Joe like 33 and I do.
Joe has talked a great deal about the 180-degree turn Mitt has made, not that Iowa is suddenly winnable.
http://www.cnn.com/2011/12/18/politics/romney-iowa/index.html
DES MOINES, Iowa (CNN) -- Mitt Romney is returning to safe harbor on Tuesday, kicking off a week-long tour of New Hampshire, his early state stronghold.
But with his team now stepping up efforts in Iowa and South Carolina -- two states he largely avoided for much of the year -- Romney's playing field has suddenly expanded beyond his New Hampshire citadel, increasing the stakes for his campaign across the early-state playing field.
Romney is now in full-blown campaign mode in both Iowa and New Hampshire, spending heavily on television ads and devoting more time to public rallies and media appearances.
-
Meh. Romney conceded Iowa a long time ago, and still might win it.
It appears, on Nov 19, Mitt opened up an HQ in Iowa and gave them a dump trunk of money so they could win that state!
It was called a "stealth" operation, which may have been why you didn't hear about it dude.
Mr. Romney, who has been cautiously calibrating expectations about his chances in a state full of social conservatives, is now playing to win the Iowa caucuses. Television commercials are on the way, volunteers are arriving and a stealth operation is ready to burst into view in the weeks leading up to the caucuses, the first Republican nominating contest, on Jan. 3.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/20/us/politics/mitt-romney-shifts-in-iowa-playing-to-win-quickly.html?pagewanted=all
-
Slow and steady and but solid as a rock.
You can say that about nearly every "not-Romney" candidate.
August: Bachmann
September: Perry
October: Cain
November: Gringrich
December: Paul
The only two left are Huntsmann and Santorum.
-
You can say that about nearly every "not-Romney" candidate.
August: Bachmann
September: Perry
October: Cain
November: Gringrich
December: Paul
The only two left are Huntsmann and Santorum.
True, and by Feb or march, Ron Paul might have fallen in the polls.
But jan 3 is the iowa caucus :)
-
You can say that about nearly every "not-Romney" candidate.
August: Bachmann
September: Perry
October: Cain
November: Gringrich
December: Paul
The only two left are Huntsmann and Santorum.
I really believe Paul / Huntsman would be the nuke to send obama back to kenya. Romney and newt are more of the same bs we are all sick of. bachmann is great but not going to win. Perry is done.
-
Yeah...if he wins here and wins NH and is still around by S.Carolina then you can gloat...at which time I'll try and figure out how many bandwagons you've jumped on...but ok...now its RP.
-
Yeah...if he wins here and wins NH and is still around by S.Carolina then you can gloat...at which time I'll try and figure out how many bandwagons you've jumped on...but ok...now its RP.
I have one goal - send obama back to Kenya w aunt Zeituni and uncle omar. If mumia abu jamal / madoff could do it - I would vote for them at this point.
-
Yeah...if he wins here and wins NH and is still around by S.Carolina then you can gloat...at which time I'll try and figure out how many bandwagons you've jumped on...but ok...now its RP.
nobody is gloating dumbass.
-
I was refering to 240....I have no idea what the hell you believe.
-
BB, you should watch Morning Joe like 33 and I do.
Joe has talked a great deal about the 180-degree turn Mitt has made, not that Iowa is suddenly winnable.
http://www.cnn.com/2011/12/18/politics/romney-iowa/index.html
DES MOINES, Iowa (CNN) -- Mitt Romney is returning to safe harbor on Tuesday, kicking off a week-long tour of New Hampshire, his early state stronghold.
But with his team now stepping up efforts in Iowa and South Carolina -- two states he largely avoided for much of the year -- Romney's playing field has suddenly expanded beyond his New Hampshire citadel, increasing the stakes for his campaign across the early-state playing field.
Romney is now in full-blown campaign mode in both Iowa and New Hampshire, spending heavily on television ads and devoting more time to public rallies and media appearances.
No need. I 'll just get my info from a guy working for Romney's campaign. The fact Romney sees blood in the water and may be spending money there now has nothing to do with the fact he didn't spend time on the ground in Iowa and didn't expect to win Iowa.
-
The Romny folks are smart and have run a steady race> he knows how to win....center right, attack Barry on substance, do well at the debates and get the nomination. The GOP stands to win pretty big in Congress, they'll force Romney a little farther right and he'll do enough to right the ship. Maybe the nutbag liberal wing will die and we'll get balance from the Dems.
-
No need. I 'll just get my info from a guy working for Romney's campaign. The fact Romney sees blood in the water and may be spending money there now has nothing to do with the fact he didn't spend time on the ground in Iowa and didn't expect to win Iowa.
he didn't expect to win it initially.
now he sees there's a very good chance he COULD win the state. The anti-romney vote will probably end up being 18, 18, 18, 18, and 2% lol...
his ceiling of "20" might just win out.
-
I was refering to 240....I have no idea what the hell you believe.
again, nobody is gloating. RP went ahead in the iowa polls and it was posted here and we're doing what we do here, talking about it. I don't see anyone including 240 gloating over it. What I do see is neocons like you in a fucking panic over it.
-
Ron Paul Plows to Lead in Iowa; Young Voters Sowing the Seed
Yahoo News ^ | Dec. 19th, 2011 | Sherry Tomfeld
When it comes to foreign affairs, Ron Paul is the most mocked of the GOP field. The argument could be made that Paul only wants to follow the Constitution. He does not believe we should fight a war unless it is declared a war by Congress. As a former military man, Paul says he wants a strong defense, but wants to bring troops back home from around the world. Paul's philosophy on foreign affairs continues to be his biggest stumbling block with older voters and his GOP rivals. An article earlier this year in USA Today stated that Paul has the largest support in military men and women.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-
The Romny folks are smart and have run a steady race> he knows how to win....center right, attack Barry on substance, do well at the debates and get the nomination. The GOP stands to win pretty big in Congress, they'll force Romney a little farther right and he'll do enough to right the ship. Maybe the nutbag liberal wing will die and we'll get balance from the Dems.
But Mitt Romney isn't a conservative. Why would any Republican want him to win? He supports state run healthcare mandates, Global Warming, Globalism, Patriot act, Pro Federal Reserve, "let the lawyers sort it out if its constitutional to go to war without a declaration"
Mitt won't win, too many people have woken up, it is game over for the neo cons and progressives.
-
She endorses paul.....its the kiss of death
Exactly. She would be like AIDS to his campagin.
-
After all the shit that has been endured since 2008, I think anyone that supported Rp has a right to be excited right now, even if it all goes downhill from here. It's been a brutal uphill battle to get to this point.
-
True, and by Feb or march, Ron Paul might have fallen in the polls.
But jan 3 is the iowa caucus :)
True. But winning Iowa, though important, isn't the end game. Huckabee won Iowa in 2008; McCain ended up with the nomination. It's a boost. But, should Paul win it, can he follow up with wins elsewhere?
And, once he becomes the front-runner, he'll get skewered just like Gingrich, Cain, Perry, and Bachmann.
-
True. But winning Iowa, though important, isn't the end game. Huckabee won Iowa in 2008; McCain ended up with the nomination. It's a boost. But, should Paul win it, can he follow up with wins elsewhere?
And, once he becomes the front-runner, he'll get skewered just like Gingrich, Cain, Perry, and Bachmann.
240 will savage RP once he starts getting ahead.
-
240 will savage RP once he starts getting ahead.
put a $10,000 wager on this one, mittens... ;)
-
True. But winning Iowa, though important, isn't the end game. Huckabee won Iowa in 2008; McCain ended up with the nomination. It's a boost. But, should Paul win it, can he follow up with wins elsewhere?
And, once he becomes the front-runner, he'll get skewered just like Gingrich, Cain, Perry, and Bachmann.
True, except Paul will never be the front-runner. I heard that Republicans in Iowa (including the governor) are concerned that Paul winning Iowa will hurt the credibility of their caucus.
Also, Paul's rise in the Iowa polls has helped Romney, because it capped Newt's rise.
-
Ron Paul Plows to Lead in Iowa; Young Voters Sowing the Seed
Yahoo News ^ | Dec. 19th, 2011 | Sherry Tomfeld
When it comes to foreign affairs, Ron Paul is the most mocked of the GOP field. The argument could be made that Paul only wants to follow the Constitution. He does not believe we should fight a war unless it is declared a war by Congress. As a former military man, Paul says he wants a strong defense, but wants to bring troops back home from around the world. Paul's philosophy on foreign affairs continues to be his biggest stumbling block with older voters and his GOP rivals. An article earlier this year in USA Today stated that Paul has the largest support in military men and women.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
That makes no sense. Paul has been railing against the wars in both Afghanistan and Iraq, BOTH of which were authorized by Congress.
-
True, except Paul will never be the front-runner. I heard that Republicans in Iowa (including the governor) are concerned that Paul winning Iowa will hurt the credibility of their caucus.
Also, Paul's rise in the Iowa polls has helped Romney, because it capped Newt's rise.
I guess we will find out in a week or two.
Newt's rise is more than 'capped' - He's dropping like a rock.
Unless those people change course after a year to Mitt... Ron Paul may become the frontrunner. Despite being ignored and hated on by corporate media.
That'd be pretty damn funny.
-
Ron Paul is not going to be the front-runner. He's not going to win the nomination. Period.
-
Ron Paul is not going to be the front-runner. He's not going to win the nomination. Period.
You need to be more clear. He's not going to be the NATIONAL frontrunner? Or the IOWA frontrunner?
Cause PPP already announced yesterday that indeed, Ron Paul is now the new IOWA frontrunner.
http://www.mediaite.com/online/public-policy-polling-ron-paul-now-the-frontrunner-in-iowa/
Paul 23, Mitt 20, and Newt down to 14%.
So your prediction is that Ron Paul will never be the NATIONAL frontrunner, right?
-
He will never be the national frontrunner. He's not going to win the nomination. Iowa is not a predictor of who will win the nomination as 2008 and other years have shown.
Yes, this is my opinion. I could be wrong, but I seriously doubt it.
-
I still think mitt will win it all. too much ground framework.
Ron Paul in 2nd is a possibility tho. And you never know - maybe that small RP supporter in many people - particularly dems - comes alive if RPaul wins Iowa.
whatever happens, repubs will 'fall in line' and worship whoever wins as the next coming of reagan. Rememebr "secret insider polls show mccain winning"? hahah LMFAO
-
Newt is crying and blaming rivals and their negative ads for his downward spiral now.
Ron will surge ahead, but he won't get the nod.