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Getbig Main Boards => Politics and Political Issues Board => Topic started by: Soul Crusher on March 09, 2012, 07:29:38 AM
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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/nfp-prints-227k-expectations-210000-unemployment-rate-83
More nonsense from the obama regime.
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Remember when 240 and Blacken attacked Perry for adding shitty retail jobs? I eagerly await their condemnation of this.
45k temp jobs and the drones are bragging, hahahah.
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45k temp jobs
91k jobs added through BD adj.
Not a good report.
Anyone have any numbers on the type of jobs added besides low paying menial jobs of the 45k?
Transition indeed.
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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/part-time-workers-celebrate-recovery-soaring-gun-purchases
;D ;D ;D
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The Part-Time Economy (Redux)
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/09/2012 09:17 -0500
BLS Bureau of Labor StatisticsRealityrecover yRude AwakeningTax RevenueUnemployment
While not shocking to most, the jump in temporary workers that we cited earlier is perhaps the biggest indicator of job 'quality' gains. As we discussed here last month, the US market economy remains mired in a low quality (“first-fired, first-hired categories rather than the type of core hiring that would build a stronger foundation for income growth,” as FTN's Jim Vogel describes it) recovery. About 160k of private jobs added in Feb are 'low-paying work' which left average hourly earnings up only 0.1% (notes David Ader at CRT) - hardly the recipe for a sustainable recovery and perhaps the slow leak in stocks post the number is the rude awakening to that reality.
As we pointed out before:
Finally, and most, importantly, we hope that this analysis has proven that while the BLS may play around with various numerators, denominators, seasonal adjustments, and other irrelevant gimmicks which are only fit for popular consumption particularly by those who have never used excel in their lives, a deeper analysis confirms our concerns, that not only is America slipping ever further into a state of permanent "temp job" status, but that a "quality analysis" of the jobs created shows that the US job formation machinery is badly hurt, and just like the marginal utility of debt now hitting a critical inflection point, so the "marginal utility" of incremental jobs is now negative, which means that Obama, or whichever administration, can easily represent to be growing jobs, and declining the unemployment rate by whatever gimmick necessary. Yet these very jobs are now generating far less in so very critical tax revenue for the US treasury, and continue to declining steadily in quality.
Finally, two more charts, the first showing the NSA number of Part-Time jobs from the Household Survey. At 28,096,000 this number is just shy of the all time high of 28,106,000, and represents 19.4% of total employment. Second, as JT Smith reminds us, the number of people holding Multiple Jobs rose by 286K in February, more than the entire employed increase announced in the Establishment survey, and at 7,116,000 is now back to the highest since May 2010.
www.zerohedge.com
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Tig Gilliam, president of the North American unit of job placement firm Adecco, suspects many of those temp jobs will eventually turn into permanent full-time positions. Among his clients, much of the demand for temp workers is for professional positions in legal, accounting and health care -- a trend that he says typically occurs as a recovery strengthens.
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Tig Gilliam, president of the North American unit of job placement firm Adecco, suspects many of those temp jobs will eventually turn into permanent full-time positions. Among his clients, much of the demand for temp workers is for professional positions in legal, accounting and health care -- a trend that he says typically occurs as a recovery strengthens.
False - Obamacare is completely destroying any chance of a real recovery. No employers are going to hire anyone full time w benefits w that disaster hanging over the nations' head.
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adding jobs is what its' about,i know its not to the level of 8 million that the repub bush lost, but it's a start
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adding jobs is what its' about,i know its not to the level of 8 million that the repub bush lost, but it's a start
LOL!
How exactly did "Bush lose them" ? ? ?
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i'm going by your thinking,if bush is pres. then it's his fault,can't have it both ways ;D
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Just check tax revenues when the data becomes available.
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Tig Gilliam, president of the North American unit of job placement firm Adecco, suspects many of those temp jobs will eventually turn into permanent full-time positions. Among his clients, much of the demand for temp workers is for professional positions in legal, accounting and health care -- a trend that he says typically occurs as a recovery strengthens.
And Simple Jack wastes no time on the hypocrisy.
Let us not forget that Simple Jack here was criticizing Perry for creating full-time retail jobs. Now he's cheering temp jobs that'll be gone the second the economy implodes again.
Keep on trucking, Simple Jack.
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pickles [fury] is on break,when your breaks done and your back in the kitchen can you find out how many calories a jr. wopper with no mayo is :D
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Jobs Recession Now 49 Months: Longest Since WWII
By ED CARSON, INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
Posted 08:38 AM ET
The U.S. economy added 227,000 jobs in February vs. expectations for 206,000, continuing a recent trend of decent hiring activity. The unemployment rate held at 8.3%.
But America remains mired in the longest jobs recession since the Great Depression. It's been 49 months since the U.S. hit peak employment in January 2008. And with nonfarm payrolls still 5.33 million below their old high, the jobs slump will continue for several more years.
The previous jobs recession record — 47 months — came during and after the comparatively mild 2001 recession, which saw unemployment climb to only 6.3%. The average job recovery time since 1980 is 29 months, not including the current slump.
The labor market won't truly return to health until some 10 million positions are created to rehire all those who lost their jobs and to absorb new workers.
The longest jobs recession in decades coincides, not coincidentally, with the longest stretch of anemic economic performance on record.
U.S. gross domestic profit hasn't risen 4% or more in any quarter since the first quarter of 2006. That's by far the longest such stretch on record going back to 1950. The only other sizable sub-par stretch was a three-year span from late 2000 to mid-2003 during the prior recession and sluggish recovery.
The current expansion, which began in mid-2009, is particularly disappointing, given the deep recession that preceded it. The best growth was a three-quarter run of 3.8%-3.9% gains.
After the severe 1981-82 recession, the U.S. economy enjoyed a five-quarter stretch of 7% or more — following a 5.1% annualized gain.
The U.S. economy is up just 6.2% above the level at the end of the recession vs. 14.9% in the 10 quarters after the 1981-82 slump.
President Obama may take hope that the U.S. economy has picked up from near-stall speed to a modest pace in recent months. But after the mild 1990-1991 downturn, the U.S. economy rose tepidly for a few quarters before growing more than 4% in every quarter of 1992. That still wasn't enough to keep the first President Bush from losing to Bill Clinton.
And nobody is predicting 4% growth in 2012.
Follow Ed Carson on Twitter: @EdCarson1.
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pickles [fury] is on break,when your breaks done and your back in the kitchen can you find out how many calories a jr. wopper with no mayo is :D
Simple Jack, your command of the English language proves that you aren't a white collar worker.
Bag those groceries faster, Lenny.
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Mar 09, 2012, 9:30 AM
U.S. Still Down 6 Million Jobs.
The stock market has recovered its losses since hitting bottom three years ago today. But despite gains in employment during that same stretch, America is still down six million jobs, data shows.
The economy added 227,000 jobs in February, more than the 204,000 economists expected, the Labor Department reported this morning. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 8.3% from last month. But while the economy has added more than 200,000 jobs for three straight months, the damage to employment done by the Great Recession is still far from repaired.
Between December 2007, when the recession officially started, and February 2010, when the Labor Department’s reports show employment hit bottom, the economy lost more than eight million jobs. Between then and now, we’ve added back more than two million jobs. With that big of a gap yet to fill, it’s extremely unlikely the unemployment rate will fall to a more “normal,” pre-crisis level of 6% by the end of this year, says Robert Johnson, the associate director of economic analysis at Morningstar. A rate below 8% — last seen in January 2009 — is possible by the end of the year, however, Johnson says.
The struggling housing market is part of the problem. Much of the job growth that happened in the recovery that began in 2002 came from construction and related industries, Johnson says. More than two million of the eight million jobs we’ve lost in this recession were in construction, representing a huge hit to the industry. “We lost about 26% of the construction jobs in this country,” Johnson says, and almost none of those jobs have come back. Employment growth in the industry “is a rounding error,” he says. This month, construction employment fell slightly, losing 14,000 jobs after two months of gains. At the height of the boom, this country was building more than two million new homes a year; as of the Census Bureau’s latest report, that rate is now below 700,000 new homes. “We’re not going back to 2.2 million housing starts in my lifetime,” Johnson says, but in the next 12 to 18 months we could be back to building more than a million new homes a year, which should add about a million new jobs in construction.
Of course, that’s still several million jobs short of pre-recession employment levels. But other sectors, such as health care and manufacturing, have been growing strongly in this recovery, Johnson says. “There’s a few categories of jobs where you can write your own ticket [like engineers and accountants], and there’s other categories where I don’t think people are ever getting their jobs back,” Johnson says.
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Jobless Stats Reveal Disparities As economy Starts To Recover [9.8% Counting Given-Ups!]
FoxNews ^ | March 09, 2012
Jobless Stats Reveal Disparities As economy Starts To Recover March 09, 2012
While the Labor Department reports a surge in private-sector hiring and the nation's unemployment rate holding steady at 8.3 percent, a closer look at the numbers paints a less flattering picture of the country's post-recession growth.
The latest report for February shows lingering economic disparities among different segments of the population. And, as has been the case for decades, the unemployment rate used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics does not tell the whole story.
Counting only those Americans who are actively looking for work, the jobless rate is 8.3 percent, just like it was in January. But counting those who stopped looking for work within the last year, the rate is 9.8 percent. And counting all of the above, plus those who settled for part-time jobs, the rate is 14.9 percent.
"Everybody who has friends knows it's higher," Rep. Duncan Hunter, R-Calif., told Fox News.
Hunter is pushing legislation that would require the Bureau of Labor Statistics to broaden its definition for the unemployment rate. He wants the department to count those who stopped looking for work as well, which would put last month's rate at 9.8 percent.
"We just want to know what the truth is, because we can't make good policy here unless we know what the actual unemployment number is," Hunter told Fox News on Thursday, ahead of the latest labor report release. "It's not 8 percent -- anybody who's out there in the real world knows that. We need real numbers, not D.C. numbers."
Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/03/09/jobless-stats-reveal-disparities-as-economy-starts-to-recover/
(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...
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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/03/09/black-unemployment_n_1334558.html
Black UE rising.
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Simple Jack, your command of the English language proves that you aren't a white collar worker.
Bag those groceries faster, Lenny.
you living with your mommy proves you have a shitty job :D
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Simple Jack, the autistic, jobless hypocrite spends all day talking to himself on Getbig. :D :D :D :D
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i have you figured out, first thing you do is come on call someone a name,your the typ. internet tough guy.when you were in school everyone picked on you because you were a geek,now this is your time to get even behind the security of your keyboard.and to make things worse you have to put a picture of a girl jumping around to prove that your some kind of ladies man,but in all reality you live at home with your mother :D :D how's that pickles [fury] pretty spot on
so did you find out how many calories the whopper jr. is :D
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i have you figured out, first thing you do is come on call someone a name,your the typ. internet tough guy.when you were in school everyone picked on you because you were a geek,now this is your time to get even behind the security of your keyboard.and to make things worse you have to put a picture of a girl jumping around to prove that your some kind of ladies man,but in all reality you live a home with your mother :D :D how's that pickles [fury] pretty spot on
so did you find out how many calories the whopper jr. is :D
you couldnt find a youtube link to say this?
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you couldnt find a youtube link to say this?
:D :D not bad
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The Real Unemployment Rate? It Sure Isn’t 8.3%
Blog.American ^ | March 9, 2012 | Enterprise Blog
Posted on March 9, 2012 6:34:12 PM EST by lbryce
Even if it were a legit number, the 8.3% February unemployment rate, released today by the Labor Department, would be simply terrible—and unacceptable. It would still extend the longest streak of 8%-plus unemployment since the Great Depression. The U.S. economy hasn’t been below 8% unemployment since Obama took office in January 2009. And back in May 2007, unemployment was just 4.4%.
But, unfortunately, the true measure of U.S. unemployment is much, much worse.
1. If the size of the U.S. labor force as a share of the total population was the same as it was when Barack Obama took office—65.7% then vs. 63.9% today—the U-3 unemployment rate would be 10.8%.
2. But what if you take into the account the aging of the Baby Boomers, which means the labor force participation (LFP) rate should be trending lower. Indeed, it has been doing just that since 2000. Before the Great Recession, the Congressional Budget Office predicted what the LFP would be in 2012, assuming such demographic changes. Using that number, the real unemployment rate would be 10.4%.
3. Of course, the LFP rate usually falls during recessions. Yet even if you discount for that and the aging issue, the real unemployment rate would be 9.5%.
4. Then there’s the broader, U-6 measure of unemployment which includes the discouraged plus part-timers who wish they had full time work. That unemployment rate, perhaps the truest measure of the labor market’s health, is still a sky-high 14.9%.
5. Recall that back in 2009, White House economists Jared Bernstein and Christina Romer used their old-fashioned Keynesian model to predict how the $800 billion stimulus would affect employment. According to their model—as displayed in the above chart, updated—unemployment should be around 6% today.
6. As Ed Carson of Investor’s Business Daily points out, it’s been a whopping 49 months since the U.S. hit peak employment in January 2008. The average job recovery time since 1980 is 29 months, not including the current slump.
7. And how long might it take to get back to the 4.4% unemployment rate that existed under President George. W. Bush? Well, let’s say the goal was to get back to that rate in 5 years. And let’s assume the LFP rate returns to the CBO trend. According to a jobs calculator created by the Atlanta Fed, the U.S. economy would have to generate about 225,000 jobs a month, every month, for the next 60 months to hit that target. But few economist think we’ll see sustained job growth like that, especially since it assumes the economy would avoid recession during that span.
Indeed, JPMorgan just cut its GDP forecast for this quarter to 1.5% from 2.0% and says there is “some downside risk” to its second-quarter forecast of 2.5%.
The U.S. labor market is slowly getting healthier, but it’s a long way from being healthy.
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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/nfp-prints-227k-expectations-210000-unemployment-rate-83
More nonsense from the obama regime.
Your mom added jobs.
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Your mom added jobs.
when all else fails to support the neo-terrorist obama - use mom jokes.
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when all else fails to support the neo-terrorist obama - use mom jokes.
LMFAO!
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LMFAO!
mother jokes usually go out of style w 8th grade, bit o guess not w Obama dildos
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BLS 8.3%- Gallup 9.1%- Obama 0%
Townhall.com ^ | March 10, 2012 | Mike Shedlock
Quick Notes About the Unemployment Rate
•In the last year, the civilian population rose by 3,584,000. Yet the labor force only rose by 1,569,000. Those not in the labor force rose by 2,014,000.
•In February, the Civilian Labor Force rose by 476,000.
•In February, those "Not in Labor Force" decreased by 310,000. If you are not in the labor force, you are not counted as unemployed.
•Participation Rate rose .2 to 63.9%
•Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be well over 11%.
Over the past several years people have dropped out of the labor force at an astounding, almost unbelievable rate, holding the unemployment rate artificially low. Some of this was due to major revisions last month on account of the 2010 census finally factored in. However, most of it is simply economic weakness.
Jobs Report at a Glance
Here is an overview of today's release.
•US Payrolls +227,000 - Establishment Survey
•US Unemployment Rate steady at 8.3% - Household Survey
•Average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged to 34.5 hours
•The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged higher 0.1 hour to 33.8 hours.
•Average hourly earnings for all employees in the private sector rose by 3 cents to $23.31
Recall that the unemployment rate varies in accordance with the Household Survey not the reported headline jobs number, and not in accordance with the weekly claims data.
February 2012 Jobs Report
Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) February 2012 Employment Report.
Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 227,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment rose in professional and businesses services, health care and social assistance, leisure and hospitality, manufacturing, and mining.
Unemployment Rate - Seasonally Adjusted
Nonfarm Employment - Payroll Survey - Annual Look - Seasonally Adjusted
Actual employment is about where it was in 2001.
Nonfarm Employment - Payroll Survey - Monthly Look - Seasonally Adjusted
click on chart for sharper image
Between January 2008 and February 2010, the U.S. economy lost 8.8 million jobs.
Over the last two years, nonfarm payrolls have added 3.5 million jobs. Of the 8.8 million net jobs lost between January 2008 and February 2010, 40 percent have been recovered.
Statistically, 127,000 jobs a month is enough to keep the unemployment rate flat. The average employment gain over the last two years has been 145,000, barely enough (statistically speaking) to make a dent in the unemployment rate.
Yet, the civilian unemployment rate has dropped from 9.8% to 8.3%.
Average Weekly Hours
Index of Aggregate Weekly Hours
Average Hourly Earnings vs. CPI
"Success" of QE2 and Operation Twist
•Over the prior 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 1.9 percent. In January, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) had an over-the-year increase of 2.9 percent; growth in prices has recently been outpacing growth in earnings.
•Not only are wages rising slower than the CPI, there is also a concern as to how those wage gains are distributed.
BLS Birth-Death Model Black Box
The BLS Birth/Death Model is an estimation by the BLS as to how many jobs the economy created that were not picked up in the payroll survey.
The Birth-Death numbers are not seasonally adjusted while the reported headline number is. In the black box the BLS combines the two coming out with a total.
The Birth Death number influences the overall totals, but the math is not as simple as it appears. Moreover, the effect is nowhere near as big as it might logically appear at first glance.
Do not add or subtract the Birth-Death numbers from the reported headline totals. It does not work that way.
Birth/Death assumptions are supposedly made according to estimates of where the BLS thinks we are in the economic cycle. Theory is one thing. Practice is clearly another as noted by numerous recent revisions.
Birth Death Model Adjustments For 2011
Birth Death Model Adjustments For 2012
Birth-Death Note
Once again: Do NOT subtract the Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. That approach is statistically invalid.
Household Survey Data
click on chart for sharper image
In the last year, the civilian population rose by 3,584,000. Yet the labor force only rose by 1,569,000. Those not in the labor force rose by 2,014,000.
That is an amazing "achievement" to say the least, and as noted above most of this is due to economic weakness not census changes.
Decline in Labor Force Factors
1.Discouraged workers stop looking for jobs
2.People retire because they cannot find jobs
3.People go back to school hoping it will improve their chances of getting a job
4.People stay in school longer because they cannot find a job
Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be well over 11%.
Part Time Status
click on chart for sharper image
Part-time status shows little improvement vs. a year ago.
Table A-15
click on chart for sharper image
Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is.
Notice I said "better" approximation not to be confused with "good" approximation.
The official unemployment rate is 8.3%. However, if you start counting all the people that want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row labeled U-6.
U-6 is much higher at 14.9%. Both numbers would be way higher still, were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years.
Grossly Distorted Statistics
Given the complete distortions of reality with respect to not counting people who allegedly dropped out of the work force, it is easy to misrepresent the headline numbers.
Digging under the surface, the drop in the unemployment rate over the past two years is nothing but a statistical mirage. Things are much worse than the reported numbers indicate.
BLS vs. Gallup
Gallup has the unemployment rate at 9.1% not 8.3% and the "underemployment" number at 19.1%, not 14.9%.
Bear in mind the Gallup numbers are not seasonally adjusted but the BLS numbers reported above are. Nonetheless, it's entirely safe to say that 19.1% is far closer to the truth than 14.9%.
Please see Gallup Reports Large Jump in Unemployment to 9.1%, Underemployment to 19.1% for details.
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ART CASHIN: The Experts I Talk To See Some Major Problems In The Latest Jobs Reports
Sam Ro | 24 minutes ago | 512 | 3
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be wrapping up its meeting today. Fed watchers don't expect any change in interest rate policy. But they will be looking for any change in the Fed's language regarding the economy.
Specifically, how will the Fed interpret the latest jobs data? On the headline, the data has been improving.
But some of the experts who Art Cashin has been talking to see some major issues with the current jobs data.
From today's Cashin's Comments:
The Fed, Jobs And The Election - Today’s FOMC meeting will be watched carefully. The resulting statement will see each sentence diagrammed and each word parsed. Is the Fed mollified by the recent jobs growth? Can they risk sitting on their hands? Will they not be constrained later in the year from taking action, lest they be accused of trying to influence the election? Do they have a political window here impelling them “to use it or lose it” now?
Then there is the problem of how accurate is the improving jobs picture. Yesterday, we cited Doug Kass’s interpretation and analysis that temporary jobs and low paying jobs made up almost 70% of the job growth. Similar analyses are popping up elsewhere.
Even more disturbing to us was word from a friend who subscribes to The King Report. He says the newsletter says that without the filter of seasonal adjustment, so far in 2012 nearly 1.8 million jobs have been LOST. Wow! We’ll try to check that out.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/art-cashin-problems-jobs-2012-3#ixzz1p0bK9FEu
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And again, check the income tax revenues to the Treasury.
With this runaway recovery and smokin' economy the revenues must be higher and increasing, right?
Well, they aren't.
That's bad fucking news.
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i have you figured out, first thing you do is come on call someone a name,your the typ. internet tough guy.when you were in school everyone picked on you because you were a geek,now this is your time to get even behind the security of your keyboard.and to make things worse you have to put a picture of a girl jumping around to prove that your some kind of ladies man,but in all reality you live at home with your mother :D :D how's that pickles [fury] pretty spot on
so did you find out how many calories the whopper jr. is :D
hhhhmmmm - where have i seen this post before?
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Im sorry, but 200000 jobs a month, almost 3 years AFTER the recession ended is NOTHING to be proud of. We havent even hit the 300000 mark yet
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Does anybody know how much the LFP rate increased by?
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Does anybody know how much the LFP rate increased by?
It was like .35 or something or some bullshit.
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You mean .35% right? Does anybody have an absolute number? Last month it decreased by a record of over a million people I believe. Im curious because the unemployment rate stayed the same because of the increase of people entering the labor force. If it wasnt many people re-entering then the UE rate will take a long time to decrease.
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You mean .35% right? Does anybody have an absolute number? Last month it decreased by a record of over a million people I believe. Im curious because the unemployment rate stayed the same because of the increase of people entering the labor force. If it wasnt many people re-entering then the UE rate will take a long time to decrease.
Check this out.
http://www.businessinsider.com/gallup-struggles-to-explain-bls-jobs-data-2012-3