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Getbig Main Boards => Politics and Political Issues Board => Topic started by: Soul Crusher on June 01, 2012, 05:35:23 AM
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BREAKING: JOBS REPORT DISASTER AT JUST 69K, DOW JONES FUTURES OFF 202
Joe Weisenthal|26 minutes ago|2,519|11
UPDATE:
The number is out....
It's bad
Just 69K net new jobs.
Unemployment ticks up to 8.2%.
The Dow is off 202.
The Work week falls to 34.4
Last month was revised down from 115K to 77K
LOTS AND LOTS MORE TO COME...
ORIGINAL POST: This is it, folks!
The most closely watched indicator in the world, the US Non-Farm Payrolls Report, comes out at 8:30 AM ET.
Analyst expect to see 150K net new jobs created in the month. That's up from 115K last month, but it's still mediocre. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 8.1%.
The numbers comes amid a serious market downdraft and a slew of bad data including weak US economic news and bad manufacturing data from all around the globe.
In addition to the Wall Street consensus estimate, there are other predictions.
The Business Insider house prediction is 130K.
The Twitter crowdsourced prediction is just 112K.
Ahead of the report, the S&P is off over 1% and Dow futures are down 111.
Click here to refresh this post for the latest >
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/the-may-non-farm-payrolls-report-2012-6#ixzz1wXoZ5lA4
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BREAKING: JOBS REPORT DISASTER AT JUST 69K, DOW JONES FUTURES OFF 202
Joe Weisenthal|26 minutes ago|2,519|11
UPDATE:
The number is out....
It's bad
Just 69K net new jobs.
Unemployment ticks up to 8.2%.
The Dow is off 202.
The Work week falls to 34.4
Last month was revised down from 115K to 77K
LOTS AND LOTS MORE TO COME...
ORIGINAL POST: This is it, folks!
The most closely watched indicator in the world, the US Non-Farm Payrolls Report, comes out at 8:30 AM ET.
Analyst expect to see 150K net new jobs created in the month. That's up from 115K last month, but it's still mediocre. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 8.1%.
The numbers comes amid a serious market downdraft and a slew of bad data including weak US economic news and bad manufacturing data from all around the globe.
In addition to the Wall Street consensus estimate, there are other predictions.
The Business Insider house prediction is 130K.
The Twitter crowdsourced prediction is just 112K.
Ahead of the report, the S&P is off over 1% and Dow futures are down 111.
Click here to refresh this post for the latest >
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/the-may-non-farm-payrolls-report-2012-6#ixzz1wXoZ5lA4
69,000 new jobs is better than no jobs or a loss of jobs. Economy is getting better while the GOP hopes it gets worse....sad.
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US Creates 69,000 New Jobs, Unemployment Rate 8.2%
Published: Friday, 1 Jun 2012 | 8:31 AM ET Text Size By: Jeff Cox
CNBC.com Senior Writer
The American jobs engine hit stall speed in May, with the economy adding just 69,000 new jobs while the unemployment rate climbed to 8.2 percent.
Photo: Sturti | Vetta | Getty Images
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As another summertime swoon looms, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that job creation missed economist estimates for 158,000 new positions, and said labor force participation remains near 30-year lows though incrementally better than last month.
In May, stocks suffered through their worst month in two years, and the job-creation figures only added to the gloom.
Stock market futures indicated a sharply lower open for Wall Street, while investors continued to pour into bonds, sending the 10-year Treasury note yield tumbling to near 1.50 percent.
The bulk of the gains came from the service sector, which added 84,000 jobs, while manufacturing grew 12,000.
Construction took the biggest hit, dropping by 28,000 for the month.
"It's painfully obvious the economic recovery in the U.S. isn't just slowing down, it's pulling up the emergency brake. And, lack of job creation isn't the only critical concern. Wages/Income is sharply lower," said Todd Schoenberger, managing principal The BlackBay Group in New York.
RELATED LINKS
Current DateTime: 05:31:27 01 Jun 2012
LinksList Documentid: 47643919
America's 10 Worst JobsToughest Jobs to FillEconomic Growth at 1.9%Planned Layoffs Surge
"For those lucky enough to have a job, their spending power is sliding when accounting for inflation. The markets will respond negatively to this report," he added.
The report comes a month after the government reported that just 115,000 new jobs were added in April, a number that helped contribute to a general malaise about economic growth.
Even that number was worse than thought: The BLS revised the April number down to 77,000.
With worries swelling over the state of the global economy, another weak employment report in the U.S. adds to fears that a sharp slowdown is on the way.
The average workweek, a closely watched economic metric, slipped by 0.1 hour to 34.4 hours. The manufacturing workweek dropped by 0.3 hour to 40.5 hours, and factory overtime fell by 0.1 hour to 3.2 hours.
© 2012 CNBC.com
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69,000 new jobs is better than no jobs or a loss of jobs. Economy is getting better while the GOP hopes it gets worse....sad.
LOL. Yeah, and guess what happens for all those NEW college grads and entrants into the workforce?
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NFP Huge Miss At 69,000 On Expectations Of 150,000; Unemployment Rate 8.2%
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/01/2012 08:31 -0400
www.zerohedge.com
Unemployment
And we have NEW QE liftoff, just as we predicted yesterday: "That the ADP would miss today's expectations of 150K is no surprise: after all as we have been explaining for a while, the only way the Fed will have a green light to proceed with NEW QE if it so chooses at the June 19-20 meeting, is if the economic data suddenly turn horrendous. Which means tomorrow's NFP data is make or break: in fact, as far as markets are concerned, the worse the better - should a -1,000,000 NFP print come in, stocks will soar." It may take a little while for the realization to soak in. The actual number of +69,000 was a massive miss to both the expectation of 150,-00, and the whisper number 100,000, and a drop from the massively revised April 77K, which was 115K before. Just a total disaster for Obama who has decided to sacrifice the perception of the economy just so he can boost the stock market.
3rd monthly miss in a row...
A 4-sigma miss to expectations...
From the report, which was, simply said, ghastly.
Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in May (+69,000), following a similar change in April (+77,000). In comparison, the average monthly gain was 226,000 in the first quarter of the year. In May, employment rose in health care, transportation and warehousing, and wholesale trade, while construction lost jobs. (See table B-1.)
Health care employment continued to increase in May (+33,000). Within the industry, employment in ambulatory health care services, which includes offices of physicians and outpatient care centers, rose by 23,000 over the month. Over the year, health care employment has risen by 340,000.
Transportation and warehousing added 36,000 jobs over the month. Employment gains in transit and ground passenger transportation (+20,000) and in couriers and messengers (+5,000) followed job losses in those industries in April. Employment in both industries has shown little net change over the year. In May, truck transportation added 7,000 jobs.
Employment in wholesale trade rose by 16,000 over the month. Since reaching an employment low in May 2010, this industry has added 184,000 jobs.
Manufacturing employment continued to trend up in May (+12,000) following a similar change in April (+9,000). Job gains averaged 41,000 per month in the first quarter of this year. In May, employment rose in fabricated metal products (+6,000) and in primary metals (+4,000). Since its most recent low in January 2010, manufacturing employment has increased by 495,000.
Construction employment declined by 28,000 in May, with job losses occurring in specialty trade contractors (-18,000) and in heavy and civil engineering construction (-11,000). Since reaching a low in January 2011, employment in construction has shown little change on net.
Employment in professional and business services was essentially unchanged in May. Since the most recent low point in September 2009, employment in this industry has grown by 1.4 million. In May, job losses in accounting and bookkeeping services (-14,000) and in services to buildings and dwellings (-14,000) were offset by small gains elsewhere in the industry.
Employment in other major industries, including mining and logging, retail trade, information, financial activities, leisure and hospitality, and government, changed little in May.
The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged down by 0.1 hour to 34.4 hours in May. The manufacturing workweek declined by 0.3 hour to 40.5 hours, and factory overtime declined by 0.1 hour to 3.2 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.7 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)
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LOL. Yeah, and guess what happens for all those NEW college grads and entrants into the workforce?
They can take one of the new 69,000 jobs available... ;D
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They can take one of the new 69,000 jobs available... ;D
::)
hundreds of thousands of new entrants looking for 69k jobs. Sounds like a fucking disaster to me.
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:D
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ONLY 69K new jobs? By their own crooked numbers UE increased to 8.2%. And this is supposed to be an improvement?
HEHEHEH!!!
Republicans don't have to wish for anything. It is clear to everyone, except to the most idiotic obama drone, that the economy NEVER improved.
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The report comes a month after the government reported that just 115,000 new jobs were added in April, a number that helped contribute to a general malaise about economic growth.
Even that number was worse than thought: The BLS revised the April number down to 77,000.
________________________ ______________
So next month will be revised downward as well most likely as well.
ABO!
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Even that 69,000 figure is laughable. They pumped the number via their Birth/Death modeling +204,000 jobs. Last month it was +206,000.
http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm
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The report comes a month after the government reported that just 115,000 new jobs were added in April, a number that helped contribute to a general malaise about economic growth.
Even that number was worse than thought: The BLS revised the April number down to 77,000.
________________________ ______________
So next month will be revised downward as well most likely as well.
ABO!
So, originally is was 115k for April. It was actually 77k for April. Now for May it's 69k. In whose mind is a decline in job creation an improvement?
At this rate 0 jobs will be created and the obama lovers will call it prosperity.
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So, originally is was 115k for April. It was actually 77k for April. Now for May it's 69k. In whose mind is a decline in job creation an improvement?
At this rate 0 jobs will be created and the obama lovers will call it prosperity.
Obama voters are now left solely based on racial solidarity, idealogical solidarity, directly benefiting from welfare govt jobs, etc,, or single issue voters who care about gays abortion, etc.
certainly not on his performance in office which has been a DISASTER
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US economy added 69K jobs in May, fewest in a year
AP 6/1/2012 12:31:31 PM
(AP) US economy added 69K jobs in May, fewest in a year
By CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER
AP Economics Writer
WASHINGTON
U.S. employers created 69,000 jobs in May, the fewest in a year, and the unemployment rate ticked up. The dismal jobs figures could fan fears that the economy is sputtering.
The Labor Department also says the economy created far fewer jobs in the previous two months than first thought. It revised those figures down to show 49,000 fewer jobs created.
The unemployment rate rose to 8.2 percent from 8.1 percent in April, the first increase in 11 months.
The economy is averaging just 73,000 jobs per month over the past two months _ roughly a third of jobs created per month in the first quarter.
Weak job growth could damage President Barack Obama's reelection prospects. Mitt Romney, the Republican challenger, has made the economy the central theme of his campaign.
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Mitt Romney And Republicans Are Destroying President Obama On The Devastating Jobs Report
Brett LoGiurato|7 minutes ago|89|4
Flickr / Ruin Raider
Mitt Romney didn't send out a press release until 9:03 a.m. this morning, presumedly because he was updating this statement to hammer President Obama even more on the disastrous jobs report:
“Today’s weak jobs report is devastating news for American workers and American families. This week has seen a cascade of one bad piece of economic news after another. Slowing GDP growth, plunging consumer confidence, an increase in unemployment claims, and now another dismal jobs report all stand as a harsh indictment of the President’s handling of the economy. It is now clear to everyone that President Obama’s policies have failed to achieve their goals and that the Obama economy is crushing America’s middle class. The President's re-election slogan may be ‘forward,’ but it seems like we've been moving backward. We can do so much better in America. That's why I'm running for president.”
The RNC and Chair Reince Priebus were ready at 8:40 with a pretty standard attack. In part:
"As President Obama jets off to multiple campaign fundraisers today, families across America are still struggling just to make ends meet. The president is desperate to win a second term, but for most Americans, his first term has been unbearable."
House Speaker calls this weak jobs report the "new normal," and he's got a point:
“President Obama’s failed policies have made high unemployment and a weak economy the sad new normal for families and small businesses."
In case you missed it, the May jobs report was a total disaster. Only 69,000 new net jobs were created in May. Analysts had expected 150,000 new jobs, which was pretty week to begin with.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/may-jobs-report-president-obama-getting-destroyed-by-republicans-2012-6#ixzz1wY39dNOa
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Expectations were low and it missed by that much. This is disastrous.
Quick, we better reelect Obama! ::)
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Utter disaster.
The only "Hope" is now for another round of QE (whether stealth or outright or both) to fuel a fake stock market rally.
Problem is, QE didn't and isn't going to help the jobs situation or the "real" economy, if there actually is one left.
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http://www.businessinsider.com/the-jobs-report-for-may-was-a-disaster-2012-6
:o
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;D
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The Employment Situation in May
Alan Krueger
June 01, 2012
09:34 AM EDT
Share This Post
.Problems in the job market were long in the making and will not be solved overnight. The economy lost jobs for 25 straight months beginning in February 2008, and over 8 million jobs were lost as a result of the Great Recession. We are still fighting back from the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.
Today we learned that the economy has added private sector jobs for 27 straight months, for a total of 4.3 million payroll jobs over that period. The economy is growing but it is not growing fast enough. BLS’s establishment survey shows that private businesses added 82,000 jobs last month, and overall non-farm payroll employment rose by 69,000. The unemployment rate ticked up from 8.1 percent in April to 8.2 percent in May, according to BLS’s household survey. However, the labor force participation rate increased 0.2 percentage point to 63.8 percent, and employment rose by 422,000 according to the household survey.
There is much more work that remains to be done to repair the damage caused by the financial crisis and deep recession that began at the end of 2007. Just like last year at this time, our economy is facing serious headwinds, including the crisis in Europe and a spike in gas prices that hit American families’ finances over the past months. It is critical that we continue the President’s economic policies that are helping us dig our way out of the deep hole that was caused by the severe recession.
In the American Jobs Act and in the State of the Union Address, the President put forward a number of proposals to create jobs and strengthen the economy, including proposals that would put teachers back in the classroom and cops on the beat, and put our nation’s construction workers back on the job rebuilding our nation’s infrastructure. The President has also proposed a “To-Do List” of actions that Congress should take to create jobs and help restore middle-class security. This includes eliminating tax incentives to ship jobs overseas, cutting red tape so responsible homeowners can refinance, giving small businesses that increase employment or wages a 10 percent income tax credit, investing in affordable clean energy, and helping returning veterans find work. The President is in Minneapolis today to announce a new executive action that will establish private sector partnerships to help military service members acquire recognized occupational credentials—as welders, as machinists, and ultimately in a broader range of occupations. These partnerships will help service members find private sector jobs once they leave the military, and they will help firms in manufacturing and other industries that need workers to fill their vacant positions.
Manufacturing employment continues to expand and manufacturers added 12,000 jobs in May. After losing millions of good manufacturing jobs in the years before and during the recession, the economy has added 495,000 manufacturing jobs since January 2010--the strongest growth for any 28-month period since April 1995. To continue the revival in manufacturing jobs and output, the President has proposed tax incentives for manufacturers, enhanced training for the workforce, and measures to create manufacturing hubs and encourage the growing trend of insourcing.
Other sectors with net job increases included education and health services (+46,000), transportation and warehousing (+35,600), wholesale trade (+15,900), and temporary help services (+9,200). Construction lost 28,000 jobs, accounting services lost 14,000 jobs, government lost 13,000 jobs, and leisure and hospitality lost 9,000 jobs. State and local governments shed 8,000 jobs, mostly in education.
As the Administration stresses every month, the monthly employment and unemployment figures can be volatile, and employment estimates can be subject to substantial revision. Therefore, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report and it is helpful to consider each report in the context of other data that are becoming available.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2012/06/01/employment-situation-may
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Obama to Hold Six Fundraisers in One Day
by Keith Koffler on May 31, 2012, 7:04 pm
With Republicans steamrollering ahead with a group of well-fed Super Pacs and an increasingly successful money effort by Mitt Romney, President Obama Friday will attend six fundraisers, a possible sign of budding desperation for a campaign that is lagging far behind its initial fundraising expectations.
Obama will travel to Minneapolis, where he will ensconce himself at the Bachelor Farmer Restaurant for three successive fundraising events. Afterward, he moves on to Chicago for a fundraiser at the Chicago Cultural Center and then two events at what appear to be separate private residences.
In April, Obama’s fundraising total actually declined by nearly $10 million from the $53 million he took in during March.
Meanwhile, Romney raised $40.1 million in April, nearly on pace with Obama.
Before heading to Minneapolis, Obama will hold an event at the Honeywell Golden Valley Facility in Golden Valley, Minnesota, where he will call on Congress to pass his “To Do List” of economic proposals.
http://www.whitehousedossier.com/2012/05/31/obama-hold-fundraisers-day
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+69,000 jobs is a disaster.
What is a loss of 69,000 jobs? Is there a word for that? Tragedy?
What's a loss of 200,000 jobs? I need a stronger word.
Point is, only 69k+ jobs is pretty crappy, but "DISASTER"? A tad dramatic, no? Cause when we lost 524,000 jobs in Dec 2008 under Bush - what word describes that?
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Job growth stumbles, raising pressure on Fed
By: Lucia Mutikani
WASHINGTON | Fri Jun 1, 2012 10:47am EDT
(Reuters) - Job growth braked sharply in May and the unemployment rate rose for the first time in 11 months, putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy further to shore up the sputtering recovery.
Employers added a paltry 69,000 jobs to their payrolls last month, the least since May of last year, the Labor Department said on Friday. In addition, 49,000 fewer jobs were created in the prior two months than had been thought and the jobless rate rose to 8.2 percent from 8.1 percent in April.
The report is troubling news for President Barack Obama, whose prospects of winning re-election in November could hinge largely on the health of the economy.
Republican challenger Mitt Romney wasted no time in jumping on the data to criticize Obama's economic policies.
"Today's weak jobs report is devastating news for American workers and American families," he said in a statement, calling the report "a harsh indictment of the president's handling of the economy."
Stocks, already on the ropes due to a steady diet of troubling news out of Europe, slid sharply at the open with the Standard & Poor's 500 index down 1.6 percent in the first half hour of trade.
Investors rushed into the safety of government bonds pushing the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note to a record low below 1.5 percent. The dollar fell against the euro.
The White House expressed disappointment in the data.
"We'd like to see faster job growth," Alan Krueger, the chairman of Obama's Council of Economic Advisers, told Reuters Insider. "We have a large hole in jobs right now because of job losses than happened during the recession."
There were a couple spots of relative brightness in the report. An influx of workers into the labor market largely explained the rise in the jobless rate, and the department's survey of households - a more volatile measure - showed robust jobs growth.
A separate report on factory activity in May showed some slowing but suggested the economy was not falling off a cliff.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected nonfarm payrolls to increase 150,000 and the jobless rate to hold steady at 8.1 percent.
Unseasonably warm weather had brought forward hiring into the winter months, and was widely blamed for the step back in March and April.
OVERSEAS WOES
However, the report hinted at fundamental weakness.
"Some had believed that we had decoupled from China slowing and all the problems in Europe, but that seems to be short-sighted," said Malcolm Polley, president and chief investment officer of Stewart Capital Advisors in Indiana, Pennsylvania. "We're slowing alongside the rest of the world."
Data from overseas on Friday was similarly troubling. Chinese factory output barely rose in May and manufacturing activity in Britain shrank at its fastest pace in three years. Earlier data had shown manufacturing activity also declined in Germany and France.
Unlike Europe, where many economies are falling into recession, manufacturing activity is still growing.
The Institute for Supply Management said its factory gauge slipped to 53.5 last month from 54.9 in April, staying comfortably above the 50 line that separates expansion from contraction. New orders hit their highest point in more than a year.
EYES ON THE FED
The weak payrolls report could cause the Fed to move closer to launching a third round of bond purchases. The central bank, which holds a policy meeting on June 19-20, already was nervous over the course of the euro zone debt crisis.
"This puts the Fed firmly in play and they will likely feel compelled to respond. The missing ingredient preventing the Fed from action had been the equity market, but now we are seeing it softening," said Tom Porcelli, chief economist at RBC Capital Markets in New York.
The Fed cut overnight interest rates to near zero in late 2008 and bought $2.3 trillion in bonds to try to spur a stronger recovery. It also has said it expect to keep rates "exceptionally low" through at least late 2014.
Until recently, financial markets had thought officials would likely push up borrowing costs sooner. However, interest rate futures on Friday showed traders now see no chance that rates will rise before the second quarter of 2015.
The level of employment is about 5 million jobs below where it was in December 2007, when the economy fell into recession.
Analysts say the economy needs to create roughly 125,000 jobs a month just to keep the unemployment rate steady.
The labor force participation rate - the share of working-age Americans who either have a job or are looking for one - rose to 63.8 percent after dropping to a 30-year low in April.
Job gains were weak across the board last month, with the private sector adding only 82,000 positions. Government payrolls dropped by 13,000, dragged down by ongoing belt-tightening by local governments.
Construction employment fell 28,000 in May, the fourth straight decline. Manufacturing, the recovery's star performer, added 12,000 jobs.
Given the high unemployment rate, average hourly earnings rose only two cents and the average workweek fell to 34.4 hours.
Slower income growth is holding back consumer spending. A report from the Commerce Department showed consumer spending rose 0.3 percent in April after gaining 0.2 percent in March.
(Additional reporting by Jason Lange and Steve Holland in Washington, and Leah Schnurr and Richard Leong in New York; writing by Lucia Mutikani and Tim Ahmann; editing by Neil Stempleman)
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After bad jobs report, Obama parties with radicals
The Daily Caller ^
Posted on Friday, June 01, 2012 11:58:57 AM by Sub-Driver
After bad jobs report, Obama parties with radicals 11:14 AM 06/01/2012
On the heels of a depressing jobs report, Barack Obama is raising $5 million at fundraisers in Chicago this Friday – including one co-hosted by Marilyn Katz.
So who is Marilyn Katz? According to the New York Times, she’s the person who gave Obama “entry into another activist network: the foot soldiers of the white student and black power movements that helped define Chicago in the 1960s. As a leader of Students for a Democratic Society then, Ms. Katz organized Vietnam War protests, throwing nails in the street to thwart the police.”
The Chicago Tribute also noted that Katz, “once advocated throwing studded nails in front of police cars, back in the SDS days when the group was alleged to have thrown cellophane bags full of human excrement at cops and cans of urine and golf balls impaled with nails.”
(Emphasis mine.)
This is not to say she hasn’t evolved. As the Tribune added: “Under this Daley, [Katz's] firm, MK Communications, has many city deals, and one involves public relations for the Chicago Police Department’s community policing program. From nails to contracts, the Chicago Way. Apparently, irony was not a ’60s thing.”
Aside from the jobs report, it also seems telling that — with the Wisconsin recall just days away — Obama is spending his time in another Mid-Western state, raising money for his own re-election. Perhaps party loyalty only goes so far.
(Excerpt) Read more at dailycaller.com ...
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+69,000 jobs is a disaster.
What is a loss of 69,000 jobs? Is there a word for that? Tragedy?
What's a loss of 200,000 jobs? I need a stronger word.
Point is, only 69k+ jobs is pretty crappy, but "DISASTER"? A tad dramatic, no? Cause when we lost 524,000 jobs in Dec 2008 under Bush - what word describes that?
Last two months were revised down as will this month. So there is ZERO job creation, despite spending 6 TRILLION DOLLARS!
Do you not grasp this?
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Obama better find those kneepads and stimulate his gay donors again.
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:D
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Last two months were revised down as will this month. So there is ZERO job creation, despite spending 6 TRILLION DOLLARS!
Do you not grasp this?
+69k is a disaster
what word do u use for -524k jobs?
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Do you not grasp this?
He is incapable of understanding the reality of the situation. The same goes for anyone that still supports the disaster.
Scary thing is they will be voting in November.
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He is incapable of understanding the reality of the situation. The same goes for anyone that still supports the disaster.
Scary thing is they will be voting in November.
Of course i grasp it. I didn't defend the performance. I did not say "but but it's good because..."
I concede it sucks. I just took issue with 33/s use of "DISASTER" for a gain of 69k jobs.
I want to know what he defines 524,000 job LOSS in one month as - it's gotta be WAY worse than disaster.
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+69k is a disaster
what word do u use for -524k jobs?
-524k jobs is called a recession that is barely a year old. Happens every 8 years or so. No big deal. +69k jobs 3 years after a recession has ended is what you call a catastrophe. Its unprecedented.
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-524k jobs is called a recession that is barely a year old. Happens every 8 years or so. No big deal. +69k jobs 3 years after a recession has ended is what you call a catastrophe. Its unprecedented.
What do you call a single month where 524,000 jobs are lost?
I know, according to 33, that a GAIN of 69k jobs is a DISASTER.
So we need some kind of monumental word for 524,000 jobs going away in thirty days. What word, 33?
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-524k jobs is called a recession that is barely a year old. Happens every 8 years or so. No big deal.
There is a monthly loss of a half-million jobs every 8 years? Link?
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What do you call a single month where 524,000 jobs are lost?
I know, according to 33, that a GAIN of 69k jobs is a DISASTER.
So we need some kind of monumental word for 524,000 jobs going away in thirty days. What word, 33?
There is a word called "CONTEXT" that you should be aware of when discussing these numbers.
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What do you call a single month where 524,000 jobs are lost?
I know, according to 33, that a GAIN of 69k jobs is a DISASTER.
So we need some kind of monumental word for 524,000 jobs going away in thirty days. What word, 33?
Do me a favor - turn off MSNBC and go demand a refund from wherever you got an mba.
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There is a monthly loss of a half-million jobs every 8 years? Link?
240, do you really need a link to know we have had a recession roughly every 7-10 years? Come on, its common knowledge. We had one in 2001, we had another in 1991, the last really bad one we had was in the early 80s when Reagan was fighting inflation. The situation in 2008 was not unprecedented. It had been almost 30 years since we last had a really bad recession. Some people would argue we were probably due for another one. Wow, talk about the power of mass hysteria. Schools need to do a better job of teaching the concept of business cycles and basic economics. Maybe we wouldnt have disasters such as Obama.
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The Miserable Jobs Report Is More Confirmation The US Is Headed For Recession
James Pethokoukis, The American Enterprise Institute Blog|Jun. 1, 2012, 12:09 PM|939|21
James Pethokoukis a columnist for American Enterprise
Miserable May jobs report suggests U.S. in recession red zone
The May jobs report was a complete and utter disaster for the economy and, perhaps, President Obama’s chances for reelection.
Employers created just 69,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said on Friday. That’s the fewest since May of last year.
Economists had been expecting nonfarm payrolls to increase by 150,000. (In fact, the result was lower than what any economist polled by Reuters had predicted.)
Moreover, companies added 49,000 fewer jobs than previously estimated in March and April. Talk about a slowdown.
The average monthly gain was 226,000 in first quarter vs. an average of just 73,000 in April and May.
Oh, and the U-3 unemployment rate rose to 8.2% from 8.1%. The broader U-6 gauge, which also measures underemployment, rose to 14.8% from 14.5%. The labor force participation rate did, finally, tick up to a still-low 63.8%, lending credence to the idea that the shrinking workforce reflects discouraged workers and not just demographics. The econ team at Barclays Capital sums things up nicely (bold for emphasis):
The May employment report suggests that the labor market recovery has lost significant steam in recent months. In our view, this raises the likelihood that the Fed will embark on a renewed round of policy easing, although market developments and the tone of other economic data in the coming weeks remain important. … In the establishment survey, payrolls rose just 69k, well below the 150k we and the consensus had expected and the weakest since May 2011.
The details were equally soft, not least the 38k downward revision to April (to 77k from 115k), which followed an eight-month sequence of upward revisions to the previous month. By sector, goods-producing firms cut 15k jobs, with a 12k rise in manufacturing more than offset by a 26k drop in construction. This can no longer be put down to weather effects to any significant degree so it would appear that construction employment prospects remain very weak …
The picture of lost momentum was also evident in hours worked data. The workweek fell one tenth to 34.4 hours and aggregate hours worked rose just 1.0% 3m/3m, down from 3.0% in April. … Bottom line: A clearly soft report that suggests a loss of momentum in the labor market recovery across jobs, hours worked and the unemployment rate.
So what is the true state of the labor market?
– If the size of the U.S. labor force as a share of the total population was the same as it was when Barack Obama took office—65.7% then vs. 63.8% today—the U-3 unemployment rate would be 10.9%. (Now, this doesn’t take into account the aging of the Baby Boomers, which should lower the participation rate due to rising retirements. But is that still a valid assumption given the drop in wealth since 2006?)
– If you take into account the aging of the Baby Boomers, the participation rate should be trending lower. Indeed, it has been doing just that since 2000. Before the Great Recession, the Congressional Budget Office predicted what the participation rate would be in 2012, assuming such demographic changes. Using that number, the real unemployment rate would be 10.5%.
– Of course, the participation rate usually falls during recessions. Yet even if you discount for that and the aging issue,the real unemployment rate would be 9.5%.
– We continue to be stuck in the longest period of 8% unemployment or higher since the Great Depression, 40 consecutive months.
– And, as the above chart shows — originally from Obama economists Christina Romer and Jared Bernstein in January 2009 –the current 8.2% unemployment rate is 2.5 percentage points above where Team Obama predicted it would be right now if Congress passed his trillion-dollar stimulus plan.
– The median duration of unemployment rebounded to 20.1 weeks in May, and 42.8% were unemployed for longer than a half year.
– Total hours worked fell 0.2% on weakness in the work week.
– Average hourly earnings rose just 0.1%. Coupled with a very stable overall inflation rate, real wages were likely flat in May.
The big question now: Does this report suggest the U.S economy is heading into recession, especially given the sharp slowdown in global economic activity from Europe to India to, perhaps most worrisome, China?
Consider this: Last year, the U.S. grew at just a 1.7% pace. Research from the Federal Reserve finds that that since 1947 when year-over-year real GDP growth falls below 2 percent, recession follows within a year 70 percent of the time. We are firmly within the Recession Red Zone.
The political implications are clear: If the White House wasn’t already in a panic about the spring swoon, it sure is now. Another Recovery Bummer. If you punch in a mild recession into the higher regarded Fair-Yale forecasting model, Mitt Romney wins 53-47 over Obama in the two-party vote share. But given the example of Jimmy Carter, who suffered a mild recession in his 1980 reelection year, the Fair model might be underestimating the damage to Obama from a double dip.
UPDATE 1 (10:09 AM): From Matt McDonald over at Hamilton Place Strategies:
Last month, the President only needed the economy to add 146,000 jobs per month to get the unemployment rate below 8 percent if the labor force participation rate held steady, 250,000 if it returned to trend. With the bump in participation this month, the President now needs the economy to add 204,000 jobs per month if the labor force participation rate stays at 63.8 percent and 295,000 if the participation rate continues to rise back to trend.
UPDATE 2 (10:13 AM): And a great jobs chart from HPS:
Update 3 (10:20 AM): Citigroup:
Signs of extraordinary and lasting weakness in U.S. labor markets have been evident since the start of the expansion, including the severe duration of unemployment for many job seekers (see figure 3). No doubt, today’s data will strengthen arguments for additional policy support for the recovery which might be desirable for reasons including the potential for “hysteresis” (reduce skills and employability) of the long term unemployed.
UPDATE 4 (10:31 AM): From Calculated Risk:
Update 4 (11:00 AM): Ominous analysis from JPMorgan:
The May jobs report was disappointing and demoralizing: employment increased only 69,000 and job growth the prior month was revised down substantially to 77,000. On top of that the average workweek fell a tenth to 34.4 hours and the trend in average wage growth appears to be slowing as well — all of which adds up to very slow growth in household labor income. The unemployment rate rose a tenth to 8.2%, though to be fair that aspect of the report isn’t quite as ugly as it appears insofar as it was pushed higher by an increase in re-entrants back into the labor force. Given the steady deterioration in labor market performance over the course of the year, our outlook for decent growth in the middle quarters of the year is now looking shopworn, and we will have forecast revisions out shortly.
Update 5 (11:05 AM): IHS Global Insight:
2012 is beginning to look horribly like 2011 – initial high hopes that the recovery was kicking into high gear, subsequently dashed. … Although there is probably now some undershooting in seasonally sensitive sectors (for example in construction) after previous overshooting, the latest figures cast doubt on whether the economy has enough momentum to achieve even the 2.2% growth rate we had expected for this year. Given the uncertainties over the Eurozone crisis, emerging market growth, the US elections and the “fiscal cliff”, there are plenty of reasons for businesses to stay cautious in their hiring plans, even if surging gasoline prices are for the moment no longer on the list of things to worry about.
Tags: American Enterprise Institute, James Pethokoukis, U.S. economy, Unemployment Rate, Barack Obama | Get Alerts for these topics »
Read more: http://blog.american.com/2012/06/miserable-may-jobs-report-suggests-u-s-in-recession-red-zone/#ixzz1wYx0mlVQ
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Dipshit Is Back can't seem to wrap his head around how badly the economy has slowed down if the numbers come at roughly 1/3 of what were already shitty expectations.
Barack Obama is an unmitigated disaster.
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Dipshit Is Back can't seem to wrap his head around how badly the economy has slowed down if the numbers come at roughly 1/3 of what were already shitty expectations.
Barack Obama is an unmitigated disaster.
He simply does not understand that unless you create at least 150k, you are going backwards!
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House Democratic leaders blame poor jobs numbers on GOP obstructionism By Mike Lillis
The Hill ^ | 6/1/12 | Mike Lillis
Posted on Friday, June 01, 2012
Blaming GOP obstructionism for the lingering jobs crisis, Democratic leaders on Friday called on House Republicans to bring a long-term highway bill to the floor.
The Democrats — led by House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) — noted that Friday's dismal jobs numbers included a steep decline — by 28,000 jobs — in construction employment. Reauthorizing transportation spending for two years, they argued, would help put those workers back on payrolls and stabilize the economy.
(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...
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Broader Jobless Rate Jumps to 14.8%
The Wall Street Journal ^ | June 1, 2012 | Phil Izzo
The U.S. unemployment rate ticked up to 8.2% in May and a broader measure rose even more to 14.8%. But the increases belied a slightly positive trend.
The increase in the jobless rate primarily came from people returning to the labor force. The unemployment rate is calculated based on people who are without jobs, who are available to work and who have actively sought work in the prior four weeks. The “actively looking for work” definition is fairly broad, including people who contacted an employer, employment agency, job center or friends; sent out resumes or filled out applications; or answered or placed ads, among other things. The rate is calculated by dividing that number by the total number of people in the labor force. When the unemployed return to the labor force, both numbers increase and the unemployment rate climbs.
In May, the number of unemployed dropped rose by 220,000, but so did the number of people employed — by an even bigger 422,000. But the overall labor force jumped by 642,000, indicating that some of the jobless who dropped out are searching for work again.
When people leave the labor force it could be due to discouragement of the long-term unemployed or by choice over retirement or child care. The labor force has dropped dramatically over the course of recession and recovery, and concerns have been raised it was due to discouraged workers.
(Excerpt) Read more at blogs.wsj.com ...
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House Democratic leaders blame poor jobs numbers on GOP obstructionism By Mike Lillis
The Hill ^ | 6/1/12 | Mike Lillis
Posted on Friday, June 01, 2012
Blaming GOP obstructionism for the lingering jobs crisis, Democratic leaders on Friday called on House Republicans to bring a long-term highway bill to the floor.
The Democrats — led by House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) — noted that Friday's dismal jobs numbers included a steep decline — by 28,000 jobs — in construction employment. Reauthorizing transportation spending for two years, they argued, would help put those workers back on payrolls and stabilize the economy.
(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...
They never learn. A mini stim bill. Throwing more money at the problem. Pure lunacy.
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The Daily Matt: Obama's Fraudulent Chart
The Daily Matt ^ | May 30, 2012 | Matt Braynard
Posted on Friday, June 01, 2012 3:10:42 PM by 92nina
The Obama campaign has been running the below ad all over the internet. When I saw it, something about it caught my eye.
Upon closer inspection, I discovered what it was. The Y-axis distance from 0 to -200,000 jobs is 15 pixels, but the distance from 0 to +200,000 is 20 pixels.
What the Obama campaign has done – in a very subtle way – is to visually and fraudulently inflate their job creation record by a third.
And they thought we were too stupid to notice.
“Chocolate rations have been increased from thirty grams to twenty grams.”
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The Links:
Say goodbye to needs. The new medical device created by MIT that you _must_ see. http://bit.ly/LEPVhs
In other news, Will.I.Am is a moron. http://bit.ly/KYhEun
Kylie Minogue’s new video; worth checking out just for her cool jacket and mind-blowingly hot dress at the end. Oh yeah, the song is good, too. http://bit.ly/JT6NAl
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The Quote: “When I see couples holding hands I yell "RED ROVER" and run into their arms.” – Likeaboss via Twitter. May 12, 2012. http://bit.ly/JNhMx5
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The Daily Matt is a personal writing exercise that attempts intellectually honest and original insight in 100 words or less.
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another example of the dems betting on all repubs to be trailer dwelling cretins who can't plot B on the Y-axis.
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Here's Where The Jobs Report Gets Really Bad For Obama
Brett LoGiurato|Jun. 1, 2012, 11:26 AM|748|19
At his afternoon discussion at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York on Thursday, Florida Republican Sen. and vice presidential front-runner Marco Rubio was asked about the GOP's Hispanic problem. A recent NBC/Telemundo poll had Barack Obama up an astounding 34 points on Republican challenger Mitt Romney.
But Rubio, who is Cuban-American, sees an opening with the growing tide of Hispanic voters he sees in the middle, who could swing either way. For them, he points out the No. 1 issue this election season.
"We have a very compelling message of upward economic mobility," Rubio said.
Rubio's message should be the Republican Party's to Hispanics after today's dismal jobs report. It found that unemployment hits worse with Hispanics and African-Americans than other groups, two demographics that are absolutely crucial to Obama's re-election.
Unemployment for Hispanics was up almost a full percentage point when seasonally adjusted — from 10.3 percent to 11 percent. Here's a full look:
Bureau of Labor Statistics
The rate was almost the same for blacks — up to 13.6 percent from 13 percent in April, when seasonally adjusted. And for adult men over 20, it was up from 7.5 to 7.8 percent.
All of which adds to the dismal jobs report already, which Romney has called "devastating" and House Majority Leader Eric Cantor called "pathetic."
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/may-jobs-report-unemployment-hits-blacks-hispanics-the-hardest-2012-6#ixzz1wZgzU2Cs
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White House: Unemployment 'Will Not Be Solved Overnight'
ABC News ^ | 6/1/12 | Mary Bruce
In its first reaction to this morning's worse-than-expected jobs report, the White House stressed that the nation is still fighting back from the recession and that the "problems in the job market were long in the making and will not be solved overnight."
"There is much more work that remains to be done to repair the damage caused by the financial crisis and deep recession that began at the end of 2007," Alan Krueger, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, writes in a White House blog.
"Just like last year at this time, our economy is facing serious headwinds, including the crisis in Europe and a spike in gas prices that hit American families' finances over the past months. It is critical that we continue the President's economic policies that are helping us dig our way out of the deep hole that was caused by the severe recession," Krueger adds, pointing to the president's legislative "to-do list" for Congress to boost the economy, which he will be promoting today in Minneapolis.
The economy added just 69,000 jobs last month, below expectations of 150,000, and the unemployment rate ticked up to 8.2 percent, the Labor Department announced this morning.
Krueger notes that the economy has added private sector jobs for 27 straight months and points to manufacturing, education and health services, and transportation and warehousing as areas where employment continues to expand.
As it does every month, the White House stresses that the monthly figures can be "volatile" and that "it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report."
(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...
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Obamanomics Fail: Unemployment Rate Rises
by Keith Koffler on June 1, 2012, 9:56 am
The unemployment rate rose from 8.1 percent to 8.2 percent in May, and the economy generated 69,000 new jobs, some 86,000 less than the 155,000 that were expected.
The economy needs to create about 150,000 jobs a month just to keep pace with the expansion of the population and maintain employment at a steady level. In April, the economy created only 77,000 jobs.
The White House can spin this any way it likes.
It can talk about the total number of jobs created over the past half century instead of focusing on this month’s numbers. It can discuss how we are digging out of the worst recession since the Black Death in Europe in 1348. It can say the George W. Bush was discovered under a sofa in the Blue Room still running the economy.
It can blame Europe, oil prices, the Japanese tsunami, the Space Station, sun spots, and Kim Kardashian.
But everyone knows this is Obama’s problem.
I saw a report recently that the Obama team has done enough to vilify anyone who brings up Jeremiah Wright – by shrieking that somehow this has something to do with racism – that they high five each other every time some Republican is heard talking about it.
The Romney team should be high fiving each other every time they hear an Obama campaign attack on Romney’s record at Bain Capital.
Because the public isn’t stupid.
People can see that after three and a half years of Obamanomics, the unemployment rate is going up. And the more they hear that Obama’s opponent was involved in the business sector – and yes, even that he made tough decisions that cost some people their jobs – the more they are going to consider putting someone in charge of the economy who might know what he’s doing.
They understand it is going to require some pain to fix things. And that Obama’s promises to soak the rich to pay for electric vehicles is not a reasonable economic program.
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The U.S. Economy Slips Below the 'Mendoza Line'
By Peter Coy on June 01, 2012
The U.S. jobs machine underperformed even the most pessimistic forecasts in May, adding just 69,000 jobs. The lowest estimate of 87 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was 75,000, with a median of 150,000 and an optimistic top estimate of 195,000. The unemployment rate ticked up to 8.2 percent from 8.1 percent in April.
The worse-than-mediocre job growth is a big blow to the reelection campaign of President Barack Obama, who has been touting the economy’s gradual recovery from the worst recession since the Great Depression. Even with the latest job gain, the economy has regained only 3.9 million of the 8.8 million jobs that were lost in the deep recession that ended in June 2009. May’s job growth was the smallest increase in a year.
The U.S. economy has “slipped back under the Mendoza line,” JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Chief U.S. Economist Michael Feroli said Thursday, before the jobs report came out but after another discouraging report—the news that the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of just 1.9 percent in the first quarter. The Mendoza line is baseball lingo that has made the jump into business. It’s a reference to Mario Mendoza, a shortstop for Pittsburgh, Seattle, and Texas in the 1970s and 1980s whose batting average (below .200 in five of his nine seasons) has come to stand for the dividing line between mediocrity and badness.
Each of the past three years, job growth started strong and then faded. In 2010 there was a peak in March and April; in 2011 the strongest period was February, March, and April; in 2012 it was January and February, when the economy added well over 200,000 jobs.
Other key stats from the May report:
• The April job growth figure was revised down to 77,000 from an already weak 115,000.
• The unemployment rate for teenagers was 24.6 percent, down from 24.9 percent in April.
• The number of people unemployed 27 weeks or more was 5.4 million, up from 5.1 million in April.
• The civilian labor force participation rate was 63.8 percent, up from 63.6 percent in April.
• Manufacturing employment grew 12,000, vs. a gain of 16,000 in April.
• The average workweek for all employees on private, non-farm payrolls edged down to 34.4 hours, vs. 34.5 hours in April.
• Average hourly earnings for that group were $23.41, vs. $23.38 in April.
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Bad Numbers, At the Worst Time (Latest employment report is very discouraging)
National Review ^ | 06/01/2012 | James Sherk
Today’s employment report is very discouraging. Analysts had expected employers to create around 150,000 net jobs — a bit more than needed to keep up with population growth. We got fewer than half that many: just 69,000 net new jobs. Updates also showed we created almost 50,000 fewer jobs than originally reported in May and April.
Job growth was weak almost across the board. Most sectors showed little to no improvement, with the main exceptions being healthcare (+33,000), transportation and warehousing (+36,000). Manufacturing edged up slightly (+12,000), as did wholesale trade (+16,000). Government employment fell (-13,000), as did construction (-28,000). The latter may be the result of the warm winter moving the start of construction projects (and thus jobs) forward into December and January.
Traditional indicators of labor market strength also showed little improvement. Employers often increase the hours of their existing workforce or hire temporary workers before committing to new full-time employees. Strong labor demand also raises wages. But in May, average hourly wages increased just $0.02, while weekly hours dropped 0.1 hours and temporary-help jobs barely increased (+9,000). In January, temporary-help employment had increased by four times that amount.
The one silver lining is that unemployment numbers are not as bad as advertised. The household survey showed the unemployment rate increasing by 0.1 points to 8.2 percent. Fortunately, this was driven by a 0.2 percentage point increase in labor-force participation rate, not by job losses.
However, there is less to this improvement than meets the eye. It represents a statistical correction from the April report, which showed the unemployment rate falling by 0.1 points and the labor force participation rate falling by 0.2 percentage points. The household survey has a larger margin of error than the payroll survey and often fluctuates like this. Taken over a longer time frame — smoothing out statistical noise — the household survey also shows few signs of improvement.
This bad report could hardly come at a worse time. With the European economies approaching a crisis, and new GDP estimates showing the economy slowing down, the labor market faces real headwinds. Congress and the administration should think long and hard about the wisdom of hitting employers with the massive tax increases scheduled for the end of the year.
— James Sherk is senior policy analyst in labor economics at the Heritage Foundation.
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isn't it funny that the zimmerman story will bury this jobs report? ;)
Almost as if it is on cue lol...
(power of the incumbency...)
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isn't it funny that the zimmerman story will bury this jobs report? ;)
Almost as if it is on cue lol...
(power of the incumbency...)
LOL
You can believe that all you like.
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LOL
You can believe that all you like.
Let's see, Monday morning, what they're talking about -
I believe right wing pundits will immediately drop the talk of the jobs report and revert to the inflammatory racial talk about the zimmerman arrest, etc.
They finally have obama with *only 69,000 jobs added last month, and THIS is what they'll be talking about - watch and see.
9 am Beck, 12 pm rush, 3 pm hannity, 6 pm levin - What do you think they're starting the show with? ;)
Oh and fox news? Forget about it lol, all we'll see is thuggish trayvon pics again. Watch and see!
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LOL
You can believe that all you like.
Hahha, how fucking stupid is this clown that he thinks the Zimmerman story will bury this?
Can an Obama drone get any more fucking pathetic? He makes StrawDouche and co. look good by comparison. Just a truly stupid individual.
By the way, it was front page news all fucking day so the damage is already done. WSJ, Bloomberg, NY Times, WaPo. Every major news organization has had it blasting all day long. Do you think anyone is going to care about George Zimmerman getting put in jail on a Friday night?
What this boils down to is you're trying to justify it to make yourself feel better. Pathetic piece of shit.
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+69,000 jobs is a disaster.
What is a loss of 69,000 jobs? Is there a word for that? Tragedy?
What's a loss of 200,000 jobs? I need a stronger word.
Point is, only 69k+ jobs is pretty crappy, but "DISASTER"? A tad dramatic, no? Cause when we lost 524,000 jobs in Dec 2008 under Bush - what word describes that?
WHAT FUCKING DIFFERENCE DOES IT MAKE WHAT HAPPENED IN 2008!? IT'S 2012 AND WE HAVE BEEN TOLD REPEATEDLY BY OSAMA AND THE MSM THAT WE ARE IN A RECOVERY AND THE RECESSION IS OVER. GET OFF BUSH'S DICK AND USE YOUR SMALL BRAIN TO DECIPHER THESE CAPITAL LETTERS. HOPEFULLY SOMETHING WILL SINK IN.
THANK YOU.
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Looks like it already happened. ZImmerman is a bail violation on a criminal case in FLorida. Obama's numbers are the national economic situation.
What would fox news do/? Bury the economic story to appease the bloodthirsty viewers.
Ever WORSE is that msnbc.com (same time, 5:50 pm est) is putting zimmerman story 2nd, and focusing upon the economy.
Fox throwing the race-baiting zimmerman story - MSNBC focusing on economy. ironic? lol
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I still want to kick myself for once thinking you wre a credible poster.
Every single radio station is leading w the jobs report, DURING DRIVE TIME!
Looks like it already happened. ZImmerman is a bail violation on a criminal case in FLorida. Obama's numbers are the national economic situation.
What would fox news do/? Bury the economic story to appease the bloodthirsty viewers.
Ever WORSE is that msnbc.com (same time, 5:50 pm est) is putting zimmerman story 2nd, and focusing upon the economy.
Fox throwing the race-baiting zimmerman story - MSNBC focusing on economy. ironic? lol
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Stephen Harper is a business man and economist who became Prime Minister of Canada. His center right economic policies led to 58,200 jobs in Canada over the last reporting period. Adjusted for the US's 9.97X larger population that would be equal to 580,200 jobs here. Last month dweeb economics created 69,000 US jobs. Center right economics opposed to a sort of soft fascist regulatory mess, and direct stimulus. Which is working? Canada recovered every job lost due to the crash of 2008 20 months ago. Since January 2009, adjusted for our larger population Canada created 11.950,000 jobs. This in addition to a growing size of workforce in Canada opposed to a shrinking one here. Why do I mention this?
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A Grim Jobs Report for America
Townhall.com ^ | June 2, 2012 | Larry Kudlow
Posted on June 2, 2012 7:41:04 AM EDT by Kaslin
You would think $1 trillion in spending stimulus and $2.5 trillion of Fed pump-priming would produce an economy a whole lot stronger than 1.9 percent GDP, which was the revised first-quarter number. And you’d think all that government spending would deliver a whole lot more jobs than 69,000 in May.
But it hasn’t happened.
The Keynesian government-spending model has proven a complete failure. It’s the Obama model. And it has produced such an anemic recovery that frankly, at 2 percent growth, we’re back on the front end of a potential recession. If anything goes wrong -- like another blow-up in Europe -- there’s no safety margin to stop a new recession.
And that brings us to the grim May employment report, which generated only 69,000 nonfarm payrolls. It’s the third consecutive subpar tally, replete with downward revisions for the two prior months. It’s a devastating number for the American economy, and a catastrophic number for Obama’s reelection hopes. All momentum on jobs and the economy has evaporated.
Inside the May report, the data is just as bad. The unemployment rate rose slightly from 8.1 to 8.2 percent. The so called U6 unemployment rate, tracking the marginally employed or completely discouraged, increased to 14.8 percent from 14.5 percent. And labor earnings are barely rising at 1.7 percent over the past year, almost in line with the inflation rate. In fact, through April, after-tax, after-inflation income is scarcely rising at 0.6 percent for the past year.
The private workweek also fell in May. So did the manufacturing workweek and aggregate hours worked for all employees. The small-business household survey did rise, but that follows declines in the prior two months.
Barack Obama doesn’t get this, but businesses create jobs. And firms have to be profitable in order to hire. Yet the president is on the campaign trail criticizing Mitt Romney by degrading the importance of profits. Huh?
Without profits businesses can’t expand. And if they don’t expand, they can’t hire. And if they don’t have profitable rates of return, they’re not going to attract new capital for investment.
Which brings us to a couple of important reasons for the virtual freeze in hiring.
First there’s the fiscal tax cliff. If all the Bush tax rates go up, incentives will go down and liquidity will leave the system. You can’t pick up a newspaper these days and not find a story about how the fiscal cliff is elevating uncertainty and slowing U.S. growth. House Speaker John Boehner asked Obama for help in extending the Bush tax cuts this summer. But Obama said no. Instead, he wants to raise marginal tax rates on successful upper-income earners, capital gains, dividends, estates, and many successful corporations.
Where’s the corporate tax reform that would lower rates and broaden the base and end the double-taxation of the overseas profits of American companies? A business tax cut would help enormously, but it’s nowhere in sight. Neither is the Keystone Pipeline, which is a surefire job-creator. Obama is too busy trashing Bain Capital profits and Romney’s business career, both of which, by the way, have recently been praised by former president Bill Clinton. (It was Clinton, you might recall, who lowered investment taxes and presided over an economic boom.)
A second uncertainty facing businesses is the Supreme Court decision on Obamacare due in a few weeks. If all those crazy tax-and-regulation mandates are deemed unconstitutional, it’s Katy bar the door as businesses put profits to work and hire. But they’re not going to move until they see that court decision.
Then there’s the whole European mess with the threat of banking contagion from Spain, Greece, and Italy. That could blow up the whole world economy if it goes completely sour. The Europeans should guarantee all bank deposits, interbank loans, and bank debt until this story is straightened out. But they’re not. So the problem festers.
And now European companies are withdrawing money from local banks and investing in dollars (especially through Treasury bonds that are yielding an incredibly low 1.5 percent). But the rapid rise of King Dollar is generating commodity deflation, which is a deterrent to manufacturing production. According to the May ISM report, manufacturing is slowing.
The Fed may yet launch a new quantitative easing to stop commodity deflation and accommodate the gigantic worldwide dollar demand. But the merits of this move are dubious. On the other hand, an extension of the Bush tax cuts right now would stop the economic and job slide and reestablish certainty.
In fact, all the countries around the world should move to the supply side with lower tax rates to spur economic-growth incentives. Europe, China, and Latin America ought to go back and read Ronald Reagan’s speeches and examine his actions when he faced a similar crisis 30 years ago. It would be an hour or two well spent.
Obama 180 Benny option FAIL blackass straw Vince gaybear lurker = TOTAL FAIL.
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Obama Is Simply Overmatched by Events
Peter Wehner | @Peter_Wehner 06.01.2012 - 4:20 PM
It’s difficult to overstate just how depressing May’s job report is – and how much damage it will inflict on President Obama’s chances for re-election.
It’s not simply that the unemployment rate rose from 8.1 percent to 8.2 percent, or that it’s remained above 8 percent for 40 consecutive months, or that in May we gained less than 70,000 new jobs. Nor is it simply the fact that in May the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) increased from 5.1 million to 5.4 million. Or that the average work week fell to 34.4 hours. Or that, as John points out, March and April’s jobs reports were revised downward. Or that in May, stocks suffered through their worst month in two years.
All of this matters quite a lot, of course. But what’s particularly injurious to the president’s re-election prospects is that May was the worst economic month in what is turning out to be a very bad economic year. The trajectory of events is down, not up. The economy is slowing down. Consumer confidence is dropping. Virtually every economic indicator is getting worse, not better.
This would be very troubling news for any incumbent president – but for one who has virtually no achievements he can point to with pride, it is triply damaging. Whatever fault one wants to ascribe to Obama’s predecessor, and whatever excuses the president can dream up, what is now beyond any reasonable dispute is that Obama has no clue how to fix things. That is not a political judgment; it’s an empirical one.
Barack Obama may be well-intentioned. He may be a fine father. He may have an excellent jump shot. And he may be a first-rate community organizer. But as president, he is simply — and by now almost undeniably — overmatched by events. By Obama’s own standards – by what he said and by what he promised — he is a failure.
For Obama, that is a politically lethal conclusion for a majority of the American people to come to. They were well on their way to arriving at this conclusion before today. They’re now further along than they were. And soon, very soon, there will be no way to undo it.
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I have a question, if a public firm kept lying to prop up their numbers and then later the numbers didn't jive, what would happen? How many times can you cry wolf?
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I have a question, if a public firm kept lying to prop up their numbers and then later the numbers didn't jive, what would happen? How many times can you cry wolf?
It's already happened plenty of times. Usually, the numbers are falsified just long enough for certain people to get their money and run etc. The company is found out and then goes bankrupt or whatever.
There is only so much bending, twisting and shifting you can do on a balance sheet before you run out of time and room to maneuver.
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Crickets from tk.
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Friday's US Jobs Report Is So Stunningly Bad It's A Danger To The Global Economy
Business Insider ^ | Jun. 3, 2012 | AP Writers
Posted on June 3, 2012 1:37:55 PM EDT by Son House
Alan Krueger, head of the president's Council of Economic Advisers, pointed out that the country has added jobs for 27 months in a row, including 4.3 million jobs in the private sector. The economy still has a few bright spots. Americans bought cars and trucks a strong pace last month, giving automakers their best May since 2008.
Underscoring the challenge for Obama with five months to go in the campaign, a May poll by The Associated Press and GfK, a research company, showed that 52 percent disapproved of Obama's handling of the economy while 46 percent approved.
Some financial analysts said that the dismal job figures put pressure on the Federal Reserve to take additional steps to help the economy, but it was not clear how much good the Fed could do beyond trying to inspire confidence.
The central bank has already kept the short-term interest rate it controls at a record low of almost zero since the fall of 2008, during the financial crisis, and pledged to keep it there through late 2014.
It has undertaken two rounds of massive purchases of government bonds, starting in March 2009 and November 2010, to help drive long-term interest rates down and stimulate stock prices. Another program to lower long-term interest rates, known as Operation Twist, was announced last September and ends in June.
But low interest rates, other analysts pointed out, are not the problem. An investor stampede into bonds on Friday drove the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note as low as 1.44 percent, the lowest on record.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies next week before a joint committee of Congress, and the Fed next meets June 19 and 20.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
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Another month, another bad jobs report. For the month of May, the U.S. economy only added 69,000 jobs and the unemployment rate rose to 8.2%. Many are calling this a total "disaster" and are worried that the U.S. economy could be headed back into another recession. Economists had been expecting 150,000 payroll jobs would be added, so the 69,000 number really shocked a lot of people. The truth is that the economy needs to add approximately 125,000 new jobs every single month just to keep the unemployment rate steady. So yes, this bad jobs report is not welcome news at all - especially for the Obama administration. When Barack Obama first took office the unemployment rate was sitting at 7.6 percent and now it is sitting at 8.2 percent. Some "recovery", eh? But the reality is that this jobs report was really not that "devastating" even though the stock market had its worst day of the year. Unemployment in America is still about at the same level as it was back at the beginning of 2012. The tough stretch that we are going through right now is only a very small taste of the economic nightmare that is on the horizon. If you think that things are a "disaster" right now, just wait until you see what is coming.
At the moment, 53 percent of all Americans with a bachelor's degree under the age of 25 are either unemployed or underemployed, and there are more than 100 million working age Americans that do not currently have jobs.
But this is only just the beginning.
During the next major economic downturn, the unemployment rate in the United States is going to soar well up into the double digits.
Many Americans will look back on 2010, 2011 and 2012 as "the good old days".
Right now, there are only small pockets of the country that are total economic hellholes.
For example, Yuma, Arizona has an unemployment rate of 26 percent, and El Centro, California has an unemployment rate of 26.2 percent.
In the future, those kinds of numbers are going to become the norm all over the nation.
Sadly, most Americans have no idea what is coming.
Today, I wanted to share with you all a couple of chilling economic forecasts that I have been made aware of recently.
The first is from Raoul Pal. According to Zero Hedge, Raoul Pal "previously co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul came to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe... Raoul Pal retired from managing client money in 2004 at the age of 36 and now lives on the Valencian coast of Spain, from where he writes."
The following is from a Zero Hedge summary of a recent presentation by Raoul Pal....
We don’t know exactly what is to come, but we can all join the very few dots from where we are now, to the collapse of the first major bank…
With very limited room for government bailouts, we can very easily join the next dots from the first bank closure to the collapse of the whole European banking system, and then to the bankruptcy of the governments themselves.
There are almost no brakes in the system to stop this, and almost no one realises the seriousness of the situation.
The problem is not Government debt per se. The real problem is that the $70 trillion in G10 debt is the collateral for $700 trillion in derivatives…
Yes, that equates to 1200% of Global GDP and it rests on very, very weak foundations
From an EU crisis, we only have to join one dot for a UK crisis of equal magnitude.
And then do you think Japan and China would not be next?
And then do you think the US would survive unscathed?
That is the end of the fractional reserve banking system and of fiat money.
It is the big RESET.
It continues:
Bonds will be stuck at 1% in the US, Germany, UK and Japan (for this phase).
The whole bond market will be dead.
Short selling on bonds - banned
Short selling stocks – banned
CDS – banned
Short futures – banned
Put options – banned
All that is left is the Dollar and Gold
It only gets better. We use the term loosely:
We have around 6 months left of trading in Western markets to protect ourselves or make enough money to offset future losses.
Spend your time looking at the risks of custody, safekeeping, counterparty etc. Assume that no one and nothing is safe.
After that…we put on our tin helmets and hide until the new system emerges
So how soon does Raoul Pal think all of this is going to happen?....
From a timing perspective, I think 2012 and 2013 will usher in the end.
You can find his entire presentation entitled "The End Game" right here.
What Raoul Pal is saying lines up very well with what Steve Quayle's anonymous international banking source is telling him....
There is no stopping this...We are still on track as I have been predicting for a while now for a fall/winter collapse of the Eurozone and naked exposure of all derivative markets the world over. Europeans will go through a major reset, after time they will recover as Europeans do not carry the type of personal debt that Americans do. It is for America that I worry. Look for these signs next:
1- JPM will be bailed out again but it will not stop the coming market crash. More details will emerge about their derivative swap failure $150 billion and counting.
2-BOA (BAC Bank of America) will fold and be absorbed into JPM as a way to prop up the bleeding Giant. JPM will get the best picking of this deal just like they got with Bear Stearns.
3- Massive layoffs at Citigroup and Wells Fargo
4- Goldman Sachs finally pays the piper, look for massive cuts there as well as BIG Losses
5- Bond market bust which leads to freeze of all bond sales
6- Derivative bust the next one will be BOA followed by Citigroup
7- All CDS shorts and swaps will freeze.
8- Total Meltdown
You can read the rest of what that source is saying right here.
As I have been saying all along, there are two keys that you need to be watching right now....
#1 Europe
#2 Derivatives
Sadly, the articles that I write about Europe tend to get far less of a response than my other articles get. Most Americans simply do not understand that what is happening in Europe right now is going to significantly affect their daily lives.
And most Americans have very little understanding of derivatives. But as you just read, there are some in the financial community that are warning that we could see the derivatives bubble burst very soon.
Time is running out. This period of relative stability that we are currently experiencing will not last forever.
You better get ready.
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Friday's Unemployment Report Didn't Sink the Markets (Here's the real reason...)
RCM ^ | 06/05/2012 | John Tamney
Posted on Tuesday, June 05, 2012 8:49:46 AM by SeekAndFind
Saturday's Wall Street Journal had a very predictable above-the-fold headline: "Grim Job Report Sinks Markets." Sadly, for the world's leading business publication, and for the myriad other media outlets that led with something similar, the headline was utter nonsense.
That's the case given the simple truth that markets never price in the present, rather they always price in the future. What spooked the markets on Friday was not a jobs report that pointed to sluggish economic activity in the present, but a weak jobs report that will author policy responses that will make things worse in the future.
Indeed, imagine if in response to Friday's number President Obama held a press conference to say that with the economy struggling he would seek to make permanent the '03 tax cuts, slash federal spending to free up capital for entrepreneurs, open the borders to foreign products and immigrants, cease any and all new regulations while putting all existing ones under review, and then to top it off, he announced jointly with Treasury a plan to strengthen and stabilize the value of the dollar? If so, readers can rest assured that stock markets would have soared; limp job creation totally irrelevant to a bright future made bright by a suddenly chastened President pushing to remove federal barriers to economic growth.
Of course that's not what happened on Friday, and markets tanked not because of some Keynesian measure of employment, but instead fell because all indicators point to worse policy down the line. Stock markets discount what's ahead, and what's ahead isn't very appealing to investors.
First up, and very clear to those with a pulse, is that the jobless number points to the Federal Reserve pursuing yet another round of "quantitative easing." On its own this is anti-growth because measures meant to keep rates low protect those who commit capital to the dead money sector that is housing, and if not housing, QE protects those who invest in the total capital destruction that is government spending. Economies going backwards tend to repel investors, and with QE a screaming tautology that the Fed will be supporting yesterday's economic mania combined with economy-sapping government waste, investors on Friday were in a sour mood.
Second, and this was made most evident by a spike in the price of gold, quantitative easing has long correlated with dollar devaluation. To put it very simply, a Bernanke Fed that's meddled its way to the slowest recovery since the Great Depression will have a new excuse to make things worse; its interventions fully supported by an Obama administration that believes like the Bush administration before it that a weak dollar is the path to prosperity. Notable here is that investors weren't asked about how policies of dollar debasement impact their capital commitments, but since all investment is by definition a purchase of future dollar income streams, policies aimed at devaluing those income streams logically turned off investors.
Of course if the markets had soared on Friday absent any pro-growth statements from President Obama, those in our midst who tilt Republican would have said the rally was a function of investors pricing in a Mitt Romney victory come November. No doubt the jobless report boosts Romney's election chances, so why the sagging stock markets?
The answer to the above is pretty basic, and it's bad news for Republicans oddly optimistic that the supposed party of growth has finally learned its lesson. Investors don't think so, and the reason they don't has to do with Romney - though a great businessman - not having much more of a clue than Obama about pro-growth economic policy.
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