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Getbig Main Boards => Politics and Political Issues Board => Topic started by: 240 is Back on June 11, 2012, 09:45:19 PM
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In the final update of his presidential forecast model at midday of November 4, 2008, Silver projected a popular vote victory by 6.1 percentage points for Barack Obama and electoral vote totals of 349 (based on a probabilistic projection) or 353 (based on fixed projections of each state).[26] Silver's predictions matched the actual results everywhere except in Indiana and the 2nd congressional district of Nebraska, which awards an electoral vote separately from the rest of the state. His projected national popular vote differential was below the actual figure of 7.2 points.
The forecasts for the Senate proved to be correct for every race. But the near stalemate in Minnesota led to a recount that was settled only on June 30, 2009. In Alaska, after a protracted counting of ballots, on November 19 Republican incumbent Ted Stevens conceded the seat to Democrat Mark Begich, an outcome that Silver had forecast on election day.[27] And in Georgia, a run-off election on December 2 led to the re-election of Republican Saxby Chambliss, a result that was also consistent with Silver's original projection.
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Keep grasping.
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Keep grasping.
Why is Nate Silver wrong?
What do YOU know that Nate Silver, Intrade, and others do not know?
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Why is Nate Silver wrong?
What do YOU know that Nate Silver, Intrade, and others do not know?
The polling now is mostly registered adults, not likely voters. Obama is not going to even close to the turnout he did in 2008. The modeling is thus off.
This has been explained to you many times.
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The polling now is mostly registered adults, not likely voters. Obama is not going to even close to the turnout he did in 2008. The modeling is thus off.
This has been explained to you many times.
nate silver used the exactly perfect info in 2008, but he's using flawed info now?
please explain.
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nate silver used the exactly perfect info in 2008, but he's using flawed info now?
please explain.
And so did Ras who who now shows Romney ahead.
Go figure.