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VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: New numbers even more troubling for Obama (Cook Political Report)
Twitter ^ | 11/01/12 | Dave Wasserman
Posted on Thursday, November 01, 2012 9:55:46 AM by
I've been following Dave Wasserman of Cook Political Report on Twitter. He has been updating the tallies of the early vote in Virginia, and what he is finding is more and more bad news for Obama:
VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Today's new 10/31 numbers even more troubling for Obama. His best counties way off '08 pace
VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Turnout down 13.6% in Obama '08 localities, vs. just 1.1% in McCain '08 (statewide down 9.2%)
VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE 10/31: 185,489 ballots cast in Obama localities (214,783 by this pt. in '08), 115,908 in McCain (117,224 in '08)
VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Even more worrisome for O...in Kerry '04 localities (hardcore D places), turnout -18.1% vs. '08 (only -1.7% in Bush)
VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Obama strongholds Arlington -20.0%, Fairfax - 20.9%, Richmond -13.7% (vs. just -9.2% statewide). Hmm..
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Hope this helps.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/31/democrats-set-to-win-early-vote-but-gop-outperforms-2008/
Democrats set to win early vote, but GOP outperforms 2008
Posted by Aaron Blake on October 31, 2012 at 4:30 pm
Republicans continue to be on pace to exceed their early voting performance from 2008, though Democrats still lead in most of the important states.
Here’s the latest breakdown on our Early Voter Tracker:
(Big thanks to the United States Elections Project for the data used above and below.)
A couple updated trends since our last update:
* Lots and lots of people have now voted early. In Nevada, the number of people casting ballots is already half of the state’s entire 2008 turnout. In North Carolina, it’s 43 percent. And in Colorado, Iowa and Florida, it’s between 30 and 40 percent of the total 2008 turnout.
This serves as a reminder that the presidency isn’t won on Election Day; it’s determined in very large part by the people who have already cast ballots.
* Democrats’ leads in Nevada, North Carolina and Iowa continue to shrink. Even as Democrats will assuredly turn out more early voters in all three states, they are on pace to gain less from early voting than they did in 2008.
Democrats have some cushion in Iowa and Nevada, where they won in 2008 by 10 and 12 points, respectively (more on that here). But they won by less than 1 percent in North Carolina, so the fact that they are behind their early-voting pace from four years ago could bode well for the GOP.
* Thanks to the start of in-person early voting in Florida, Democrats there have gained an advantage. While the GOP built an edge earlier this month on absentee ballots, Democrats have eclipsed that with the start of in-person early voting.
That said, Democrats hold a narrow lead (43 percent to 41 percent) and are not on pace to match their 46-37 advantage from 2008. We are through four days of the eight-day period for in-person early voting, and while Democrats gained big on the first two days (Saturday and Sunday), they were unable to keep that pace on Monday and Tuesday. Democrat netted 73,000 vote from the first two days, but gained 28,000 votes on Monday and just 16,000 votes on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Republicans keep building their absentee lead, which stands at 70,000 votes.
While Democrats won the combined early vote (absentee plus in-person) by more than 360,000 votes in 2008, they currently lead by about 49,000. That edge will grow over the next four days as Democrats build their in-person early voting lead (many more people vote in-person than absentee), but it’s unlikely to approach anywhere near 360,000.
* The one state where Republicans have a clear lead is Colorado, where 38 percent of early votes have come from Republicans and 36 percent have come from Democrats. That said, Democrats had just a two-point early vote advantage in 2008 and still won the state by nine points overall.
* Ohio, as usual, is harder to measure, since the state doesn’t have traditional party registration. Polling last week showed Obama winning the early vote by between 26 and 30 points. A new CBS News/New York Times poll shows his advantage at 26 points and an automated SurveyUSA poll shows that margin is down to 16. A late Friday poll from CNN showed Obama winning by 21 among people who already voted or planned to vote early.
The polling suggests that Obama is clearly building an early vote advantage in Ohio, even as we don’t have the party registration numbers to back it up.
* In Virginia, early voting isn’t as big a piece of the puzzle, given that it requires a valid excuse to cast an early ballot. But analysts have pointed out that turnout in heavily Democratic areas like Arlington County, Alexandria, Charlottesville, Richmond, Norfolk and Portsmouth is lower than elsewhere in the state. All were among Obama’s top 10 best cities and counties.
There have also been dropoffs in the most Republican counties and cities from 2008, but not as big as in the places listed above.
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Where is the data?
Obama is down 70% from 2008 in some spots alone.
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Where is the data?
Obama is down 70% from 2008 in some spots alone.
Second link from the Washington Post.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/31/democrats-set-to-win-early-vote-but-gop-outperforms-2008/
http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html
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Where is the data?
Obama is down 70% from 2008 in some spots alone.
You better start going with the real data so the shock won`t be a surprise. Seriously, why do Republicans not like actual data? I think its a large part of their downfall, not being able to stomach facts or even know what a fact is.
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Second link from the Washington Post.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/31/democrats-set-to-win-early-vote-but-gop-outperforms-2008/
http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html
Here is the other probolem for you TA - Romney will get more crossover and Inde votes than Obama will, so you and theleftist bubble are making a false assumption that all democrat votes are for Obama.
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You better start going with the real data so the shock won`t be a surprise. Seriously, why do Republicans not like actual data? I think its a large part of their downfall, not being able to stomach facts or even know what a fact is.
You mean actual data like THIS?
Colorado Republicans lead Democrats in early voting with 1.1 million ballots cast
With less than a week to go before Election Day, about 1.1 million Colorado voters have already turned in ballots, according to state election data released Wednesday.
Registered Republicans in the state were slightly ahead of Democrats in casting mail-in ballots. The statewide tally of 1,150,698 includes 439,269 Republican; 404,870 Democrats; and 295,122 independents.
The total early tab in Denver was 119,419, with 68,204 Democrats having voted, compared to 21,483 Republicans. The unaffiliated count in Denver was 28,099.
Jefferson County residents had tabulated the most early ballots statewide, with a total of 153,072. In Jefferson County, Republican voters have edged out Democrats by a count of 58,151 to 51,991;
http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_21897135/colorado-republicans-lead-democrats-early-voting-1-1
Or, actual data like THIS?
Crucial early votes for Obama lagging in Ohio stronghold
CLEVELAND -- The stakes for President Obama could not be higher in this liberal bastion, an economically hard-hit region in the nation's premier battleground where the incumbent needs a massive turnout to prevail on Nov. 6.
For Obama, this area is a firewall that could offset likely gains by Republican Mitt Romney throughout other stretches of Ohio -- but fault lines have emerged.
Early voting, touted as Obama's secret weapon in the Buckeye State, is down nearly 10 percent in Cuyahoga County, which includes Cleveland, compared to the same time in 2008. Even before Hurricane Sandy ushered in nasty rain, early turnout was lagging behind the benchmark it set four years ago, local election figures show.
Politically speaking, the failure to turn out a vote in this Democratic fortress is almost as good as casting a vote for Romney. And even while the number of Democrats voting early is down, there are indications that some of those who are voting are crossing over to Romney instead.
"I come from a Democratic family, a union family," said Dave Koler, an information technology program manager from North Royalton. "The first debate was a real swing for me. This might be the first time that I actually go Republican."
Koler doesn't feel like he's the only one.
"We had a lot of people who voted four years ago for Obama who I don't think are going to show up this time," he said.
In 2008, Obama won Cuyahoga County by 258,000 votes, just shy of his winning margin for the entire state. With Romney in better position in Ohio than the 2008 Republican contender, Sen. John McCain, Obama's turnout effort in Cuyahoga grows in importance, analysts said.
"It's the most important county for President Obama in the entire country," David Cohen, a political scientist at the University of Akron, said. "If he does not equal his totals there from 2008, that is a horrible omen for Election Day. He has to win by a 2-to-1 margin."
Obama has traveled repeatedly to Northeast Ohio, lavishing attention on the manufacturing sector and the auto industry he helped bailout. That attention did not go unnoticed by voters.
"People appreciate what he's done for the economy," said Richard Toohey, 51, of Brecksville. "I don't know if he did the best job highlighting his accomplishments early on, but of late, I've been surprised by all the yard signs and other symbols of support here for the president."
Both campaigns claim to have an edge in Ohio.
Obama senior strategist David Axelrod on Wednesday charged that Romney knew Ohio was "fading away" and that's why the Republican is trying to win votes in Democratic states like Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Still, Obama faces difficulties of his own in this Rust Belt swing state. He has to convince voters that he can relate to their economic worries without taking the blame for the lagging economy that is the source of their concerns.
"Vote early?" joked Edward Madden, of Cleveland, while walking through the downtown area on a gloomy Wednesday afternoon. "I wouldn't vote even if you paid me to. That's not the message I want to send -- 'You blew it, here's four more years.' "
http://washingtonexaminer.com/crucial-early-votes-for-obama-lagging-in-ohio-stronghold/article/2512270#.UJJP0sXA_Ls
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Polls do their thing but are still at the mercy of their composition. Even Nate Silver.
The final poll in 1988 had Carter over Reagan by 6pts.
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Florida, Virginia, Colorado, and Ohio......ALL have Republicans UP in what's supposed to be the Dems' big money arena, early voting.
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Polls do their thing but are still at the mercy of their composition. Even Nate Silver.
The final poll in 1988 had Carter over Reagan by 6pts.
Nate Silver`s model is not just one poll. Its all of them.
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Nate Silver`s model is not just one poll. Its all of them.
::) ::)
So is RCP and it contains a lot of crap.
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It's easy to sift through the BS.
The real polls are the ones that have Republicans winning and the rest are a conspiracy.
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It's easy to sift through the BS.
The real polls are the ones that have Republicans winning and the rest are a conspiracy.
X2.
John McCain has had a good 4 years as President this go round. The Republican sites are always dead on accurate because they use the best data available and always report the facts.
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X2.
John McCain has had a good 4 years as President this go round. The Republican sites are always dead on accurate because they use the best data available and always report the facts.
Remind me of how you thought 2010 mid terms was going to end up?
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Remind me of how you thought 2010 mid terms was going to end up?
I posted that the Democrats were going to lose. Nate Silver also predicted this with 100 percent accuracy. Remind me why you think I would have said otherwise.
I knew they were going to lose as that is what the data suggested.
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I posted that the Democrats were going to lose. Nate Silver also predicted this with 100 percent accuracy. Remind me why you think I would have said otherwise.
I knew they were going to lose as that is what the data suggested.
No he didnt predict it with as accuracy as did gallup and some others did.
He is a one trick pony for 2008 when any democrat was going to win.
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No he didnt predict it with as accuracy as did gallup and some others did.
He is a one trick pony for 2008 when any democrat was going to win.
Wrong.
http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/washington-whispers/2009/08/13/nate-silver-sees-major-gains-for-gop-in-2010
Nate Silver Sees Major Gains for GOP in 2010
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Wrong.
http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/washington-whispers/2009/08/13/nate-silver-sees-major-gains-for-gop-in-2010
Nate Silver Sees Major Gains for GOP in 2010
He grossly underestimated it by a ton.
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Early Ohio numbers promising for Romney
American Enterprise Institute ^ | 11/01/12 | Henry Olsen
Posted on Thursday, November 01, 2012 11:02:12 AM
Barack Obama is clearly winning the early vote in Ohio. But careful analysis of the actual numbers so far suggest very good news for Mitt Romney.
The Romney campaign claims the president is merely banking votes he would have received on Election Day anyway, so his early lead isn’t very important. They say their early voting strategy relies on targeting low-voting-propensity Romney supporters for early voting and leaving the others to turn out on Election Day. In other words, they claim Obama’s effort is merely harvesting votes while theirs is creating votes.
This approach makes sense, but it’s hard to prove it’s working without inside campaign information. I think I’ve found a way to do that, and my research shows the Romney effort might be paying off.
To do this, I looked at data from the George Mason University’s United States Election Project. Under the direction of elections scholar Prof. Michael McDonald, the project collects all the publicly available data on the progress of early voting in one place. The project also collects the early voting information from 2008 and provides data on how much of the share of the final turnout came from early voting in 2008 and how much of that turnout has already been cast in 2012.
I hypothesized that if the Romney campaign’s effort is working, the share of the total 2008 early vote that has already been cast should be higher in strong Romney counties than in strong Obama counties. That’s because if the Romney effort works, total turnout in those counties should be up in 2012, the bulk of that coming from the low-voting-propensity supporters who the campaign is asking to cast early ballots.
Through last Friday, that hypothesis is clearly correct:
McDonald’s site reports county-level early voting data from 53 of Ohio’s 88 counties, including all of the state’s largest. Across the state, 57.6 of the 2008 early voting turnout totals had already been cast in 2012. But the percentages are much higher in strong Romney counties than in strong Obama counties.
Twenty-two counties report that early voting in 2012 is already equal or greater than two-thirds the level in 2008. McCain carried sixteen of those, usually with high margins. Obama got more than 55% of the vote in only two of the remaining six, Ashtabula and Trumbull. All of those six are either in coal country or in a corridor from the Pennsylvania border through Canton that the Romney campaign is also targeting.
The numbers are particularly strong for Romney in the southeastern coal country on or near the Ohio River. From Scioto county in the south to Columbiana county in the north, early voting shares range from a low of 63.5% in Monroe to 82.7% in Columbiana. (Athens County, an Obama stronghold because of Ohio University, touches the Ohio River- its early voting share is only 57.4%). To compare, the early voting shares in the largest and strongest Obama counties (Cuyahoga, Lucas, Franklin, Summit, and Lorain) never top 61.0% (Cuyahoga).
Exceptionally strong numbers can also be found in Republican counties in the northwest in the Dayton, Lima, and Toledo media markets. Early voting shares there average in the high sixties, touching as high as 87.5% in Champaign County.
If anything, these numbers underestimate Romney’s strength in early voting because most of the counties not reporting early voting numbers are strongly Republican. McCain carried thirty-two of the thirty-five counties without county-level early voting statistics available on McDonald’s website, and the three carried by Obama are classic Ohio swing counties. The thirty-two McCain counties include two of the four Cincinnati suburban counties, the three biggest Republican counties in the Cleveland media market, and other large, strong GOP counties in the Dayton and Columbus markets.
The data from the two Cincy suburban counties that are available are also good news for Mitt. Exurban Warren and Brown counties report huge early voting compared to 2008- 78.7% of the ’08 level in Warren (McCain carried it with 67%) and a whopping 83.2% in Brown (McCain 61%).
This data is already a few days old: Perhaps more recent updates will change the story. But going into last weekend, Romney’s ground game looks like it was hiking turnout among its supporters better than Obama’s, an edge that could prove crucial if the race there is really a tie, as Sunday’s respected Ohio News poll showed.
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He grossly underestimated it by a ton.
He accurately predicted the entire Republican House wins as well as the Senate wins. I don`t understand what you are talking about.
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http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/
November 4, 2010, 10:41 PM180 Comments
Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly
Moreover, Rasmussen’s polls were quite biased, overestimating the standing of the Republican candidate by almost 4 points on average. In just 12 cases, Rasmussen’s polls overestimated the margin for the Democrat by 3 or more points. But it did so for the Republican candidate in 55 cases — that is, in more than half of the polls that it issued.
If one focused solely on the final poll issued by Rasmussen Reports or Pulse Opinion Research in each state — rather than including all polls within the three-week interval — it would not have made much difference. Their average error would be 5.7 points rather than 5.8, and their average bias 3.8 points rather than 3.9.
Nor did it make much difference whether the polls were branded as Rasmussen Reports surveys, or instead, were commissioned for Fox News by its subsidiary Pulse Opinion Research. (Both sets of surveys used an essentially identical methodology.) Polls branded as Rasmussen Reports missed by an average of 5.9 points and had a 3.9 point bias. The polls it commissioned on behalf of Fox News had a 5.1 point error, and a 3.6 point bias.
Rasmussen’s polls have come under heavy criticism throughout this election cycle, including from FiveThirtyEight. We have critiqued the firm for its cavalier attitude toward polling convention. Rasmussen, for instance, generally conducts all of its interviews during a single, 4-hour window; speaks with the first person it reaches on the phone rather than using a random selection process; does not call cellphones; does not call back respondents whom it misses initially; and uses a computer script rather than live interviewers to conduct its surveys. These are cost-saving measures which contribute to very low response rates and may lead to biased samples.
Rasmussen also weights their surveys based on preordained assumptions about the party identification of voters in each state, a relatively unusual practice that many polling firms consider dubious since party identification (unlike characteristics like age and gender) is often quite fluid.
Rasmussen’s polls — after a poor debut in 2000 in which they picked the wrong winner in 7 key states in that year’s Presidential race — nevertheless had performed quite strongly in in 2004 and 2006. And they were about average in 2008. But their polls were poor this year.
The discrepancies between Rasmussen Reports polls and those issued by other companies were apparent from virtually the first day that Barack Obama took office. Rasmussen showed Barack Obama’s disapproval rating at 36 percent, for instance, just a week after his inauguration, at a point when no other pollster had that figure higher than 20 percent.
Rasmussen Reports has rarely provided substantive responses to criticisms about its methodology. At one point, Scott Rasmussen, president of the company, suggested that the differences it showed were due to its use of a likely voter model. A FiveThirtyEight analysis, however, revealed that its bias was at least as strong in polls conducted among all adults, before any model of voting likelihood had been applied.
Some of the criticisms have focused on the fact that Mr. Rasmussen is himself a conservative — the same direction in which his polls have generally leaned — although he identifies as an independent rather than Republican. In our view, that is somewhat beside the point. What matters, rather, is that the methodological shortcuts that the firm takes may now be causing it to pay a price in terms of the reliability of its polling.
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The table below presents results for the eight companies in FiveThirtyEight’s database that released at least 10 polls of gubernatorial and Senate contests into the public domain in the final three weeks of the campaign, and which were active in at least two states.
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His chances of holding onto his Electoral College lead and converting it into another term are equivalent to the chances of an N.F.L. team winning when it leads by a field goal with three minutes left to play in the fourth quarter. There are plenty of things that could go wrong, and sometimes they will.
But it turns out that an N.F.L. team that leads by a field goal with three minutes left to go winds up winning the game 79 percent of the time. Those were Mr. Obama’s chances in the FiveThirtyEight forecast as of Wednesday: 79 percent.
Not coincidentally, these are also about Mr. Obama’s chances of winning Ohio, according to the forecast.
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He accurately predicted the entire Republican House wins as well as the Senate wins. I don`t understand what you are talking about.
So did Karl Rove.
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His chances of holding onto his Electoral College lead and converting it into another term are equivalent to the chances of an N.F.L. team winning when it leads by a field goal with three minutes left to play in the fourth quarter. There are plenty of things that could go wrong, and sometimes they will.
But it turns out that an N.F.L. team that leads by a field goal with three minutes left to go winds up winning the game 79 percent of the time. Those were Mr. Obama’s chances in the FiveThirtyEight forecast as of Wednesday: 79 percent.
Not coincidentally, these are also about Mr. Obama’s chances of winning Ohio, according to the forecast.
You don't win 80% of your games when you turn over the ball three times or more.
Let's look at Obama's turnovers, if you will.
1. ObamaCare: GOP beat down the Dems in the 2010 midterms, one of the most devastating losses in American political history. And it trickled down to the states. prior to 2010 midterms there were about 29 Dem governors to 14 GOP ones. That FLIPPED after 2010.
2. Wisconsin recall: That was supposed to be a dry run of the presidential election, according to liberals. For their sake, they'd better be wrong on that.
3. First presidential debate: Obama spend hundreds of millions, trying to paint Romney as an unholy monster for which no one could vote. Romney shattered that image and took Obama apart in that first debate. Obama has been reeling since then.
4. RECORD. Obama has one; it sucks; and that's evidence with the struggles he's had to close the deal.
Any way you slice it, there ain't NO WAY Obama has an "80%" chance of winning.
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You don't win 80% of your games when you turn over the ball three times or more.
Let's look at Obama's turnovers, if you will.
1. ObamaCare: GOP beat down the Dems in the 2010 midterms, one of the most devastating losses in American political history. And it trickled down to the states. prior to 2010 midterms there were about 29 Dem governors to 14 GOP ones. That FLIPPED after 2010.
2. Wisconsin recall: That was supposed to be a dry run of the presidential election, according to liberals. For their sake, they'd better be wrong on that.
3. First presidential debate: Obama spend hundreds of millions, trying to paint Romney as an unholy monster for which no one could vote. Romney shattered that image and took Obama apart in that first debate. Obama has been reeling since then.
4. RECORD. Obama has one; it sucks; and that's evidence with the struggles he's had to close the deal.
Any way you slice it, there ain't NO WAY Obama has an "80%" chance of winning.
Opinions don`t matter. Try using the data for once.
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wow, TA showing some serious truth in this thread.
Nate silver was VERY accurate in 2010... Rasmussen not as much.
TA served the fact. What are Nate and Ras saying about 2012?
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wow, TA showing some serious truth in this thread.
Nate silver was VERY accurate in 2010... Rasmussen not as much.
TA served the fact. What are Nate and Ras saying about 2012?
Obama has an 80 percent chance of winning and 20 percent of losing.
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Opinions don`t matter. Try using the data for once.
I've used the data, multiple times. Perhaps you should get some Lasix and check it out.
Obama is LOSING in early voting. He's getting KILLED with independents and with white working-class voters (especially men). What part of that can't you quite grasp?
That's NATIONWIDE. I've cited at least four states: Florida, Virginia, Colorado, and Ohio.
Here's some more data for you. Gallup has had Romney at 50% or higher for over two weeks. Guess what: Every challenger that has been at 50% or more since mid-October HAS WON.
Now you have even libs, talking about the possibility of having a winner of the EC, losing the popular vote. Good luck with that, considering that's only happened 4 times, NEVER with an incumbent president.
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Obama has an 80 percent chance of winning and 20 percent of losing.
Dream on, Adonis.
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Obama is LOSING in early voting. He's getting KILLED with independents and with white working-class voters (especially men). What part of that can't you quite grasp?
That's NATIONWIDE. I've cited at least four states: Florida, Virginia, Colorado, and Ohio.
I thought Obama was still leading in FL early voting, but by nowhere near the same margin as in 2008.
I quoted THAT LINE from YOUR POST. You even laughed and said "I said it first".
It said obama was winning FL, but by far fewer votes. You say he's "losing" and say he's losing FL.
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All this chatter about polls means very little in my opinion. The results will be what they will be in 6 days. Odds makers are betting on President Obama winning. There will be a lot of unhappy gamblers if he loses.
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I thought Obama was still leading in FL early voting, but by nowhere near the same margin as in 2008.
I quoted THAT LINE from YOUR POST. You even laughed and said "I said it first".
It said obama was winning FL, but by far fewer votes. You say he's "losing" and say he's losing FL.
Let me clarify.
I did indeed post the article in Florida, that had Obama up by a mere 41,000 votes but the numbers are down 70% from 2008.
Notice I put in caps "that's NATIONWIDE". I was also referring to a Gallup poll and a Pew poll that has Romney beating Obama in early voting nationwide.
Regarding the latter poll, I just saw this flashed on Fox News.
Obama had a +19 edge in early voting against McCain in 2008. Now, Romney is beating Obama (now, the incumbent president) by 7, according to Pew.
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Pew: Yup, Romney's Leading in Early Voting [Confirms Gallup]
Townhall ^ | Nov 01, 2012 | Guy Benson
Posted on Thursday, November 01, 2012 11:20:17 AM
November 1, 2012
Pew: Yup, Romney's Leading in Early Voting
By Guy Benson
11/1/2012
Welcome to November. Earlier in the week, one of the oldest and most respected polling firms in America -- Gallup -- produced results based on thousands of voter contacts indicating that Mitt Romney is leading in national early voting by roughly six percentage points. Last night, another venerable polling outfit confirmed Gallup's findings with a survey of its own. From Pew Research:
The Pew Research Center survey found that the race is even among all likely voters nationwide (47% Obama, 47% Romney). Unlike the last campaign, the race also is close among voters who say they have already voted. In the poll, conducted Oct. 24-28, 19% of likely voters say they have already voted; that is unchanged from the same week in the 2008 campaign (Oct. 23-26, 2008). Currently, Romney holds a seven-point edge among early voters (50% to 43%); because of the small sample, this lead is not statistically significant. At this point four years ago, Obama led John McCain by 19 points (53% to 34%) among early voters.
The overall sample was roughly 1700 voters, only about half the size of Gallup's pool, but resulting in nearly the exact same early voting outcome. In this case, Romney by seven. Gallup found that Obama led McCain by 15 points in early tallies at this stage in 2008; Pew puts the gap at 19 points, so their 2012 numbers represent a 26-point swing to the GOP ticket. That's...not insignificant. But what about in the swing states? The Washington Post reports that Obama has the lead in most (but not all) of the contested battlegrounds, but that Romney is hugely outpacing McCain's 2008 numbers. In brief, Republicans are narrowing the gap in Nevada, North Carolina and Iowa (where one new state poll gives Romney a slight overall lead, while another shows Obama winning). Romney is doing quite well in Colorado, where the GOP is actually leading Democrats, very much unlike last cycle. In Florida, Democrats have a small edge in the early totals, but nowhere near their 2008 levels:
Democrats hold a narrow lead (43 percent to 41 percent) and are not on pace to match their 46-37 advantage from 2008. We are through four days of the eight-day period for in-person early voting, and while Democrats gained big on the first two days (Saturday and Sunday), they were unable to keep that pace on Monday and Tuesday. Democrat netted 73,000 vote from the first two days, but gained 28,000 votes on Monday and just 16,000 votes on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Republicans keep building their absentee lead, which stands at 70,000 votes. While Democrats won the combined early vote (absentee plus in-person) by more than 360,000 votes in 2008, they currently lead by about 49,000. That edge will grow over the next four days as Democrats build their in-person early voting lead (many more people vote in-person than absentee), but it’s unlikely to approach anywhere near 360,000.
The Romney campaign said today that they expect to win Florida's election day voters by double digits. In Virginia, counties that Obama won last time have seen a dramatic drop-off in absentee balloting; absentee "turnout" in Republican areas has slowed a bit, but not as much as Democrat territory. Finally, there's Ohio. Public polling shows Obama with a large lead, but there's no way to verify that. Republicans say the raw numbers don't bear out that big Obama advantage:
“The Gallup numbers nationally confirm what we think is happening here in Ohio,” says one Romney official. “It’s two things. One, their margin of victory in early voting is greatly diminished — drastically diminished. And two, they are having a very difficult time generating enthusiasm among young people.” Asked for evidence to support those claims, the official cited a Romney tally showing absentee and early voting is ten percent higher in counties McCain won in 2008 than in counties Obama won. He also pointed to sluggish early voting in the Toledo area, which Obama won in ’08, and particularly energetic early voting in the Cincinnati area, which McCain won. In addition, the official argues that Republicans are “outperforming our share of voter registration in absentee requests and early votes” and that the GOP has “closed the gap on Democrats’ historical absentee and early vote advantage for 20 of the past 21 days.”
Has that gap closed enough to stem Obama's pre-election day tide and tee up a Romney win at the ballot box day-of? The answer to that question, ladies and gents, may very well determine the 2012 presidential election. One alternate route to 270 for Romney involves Wisconsin, which was tied as of late last week. Then came Marquette's latest poll, which shows Obama ahead by eight -- a seven-point jump in approximately one week. Wisconsin insiders smell a sampling rat. Even so, just when you think Wisconsin may be slipping away (I've heard the opposite from folks on the ground there, by the way), an elected Democrat says this:
Hancock even broke news on that Wisconsin trip, telling voters if the election were to be held right now the president would lose Wisconsin and its coveted 10 electoral votes. ... “We have not turned out the vote early,” Hancock told the newspaper. “The suburbs and rural parts of Wisconsin – the Republican base – are voting. President Obama’s base has yet to go vote. We’ve got to get our people to go vote.”
Guy Benson is Townhall.com's Political Editor. Follow him on Twitter @guypbenson.
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Let me clarify.
I did indeed post the article in Florida, that had Obama up by a mere 41,000 votes but the numbers are down 70% from 2008.
Notice I put in caps "that's NATIONWIDE". I was also referring to a Gallup poll and a Pew poll that has Romney beating Obama in early voting nationwide.
Regarding the latter poll, I just saw this flashed on Fox News.
Obama had a +19 edge in early voting against McCain in 2008. Now, Romney is beating Obama (now, the incumbent president) by 7, according to Pew.
Regarding early voting...
-Is Obama is losing in early voting because less people are voting for him?
-Are those that are early voting for Romney "new" voters for him or are they simply people who would vote anyways but simply chose to vote early?
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hahahahha YOU TITLE A THREAD "SIFT THROUGH THE BS!!!!!!!!?????????????!!!!!!!!???????hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
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Here is the other probolem for you TA - Romney will get more crossover and Inde votes than Obama will, so you and theleftist bubble are making a false assumption that all democrat votes are for Obama.
LANDSLIDE COMING?
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the true adonis owned this thread by a landslide :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D
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hahahahha YOU TITLE A THREAD "SIFT THROUGH THE BS!!!!!!!!?!!!!!!!!?hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahahahahahahahaha hahahahahaha
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As for early voting in the state, the Colorado Secretary of State's office reports that over 1.3 million ballots have already been cast here. Of those, 457,337 are Democrats, 493, 457 are Republicans and 341,920 are from voters registered as "unaffiliated." The number of ballots cast so far is already more than half, 53.9 percent, of the total votes cast in 2008.
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Colorado going to Romney.
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http://election.princeton.edu/
Not looking good for mittens
http://www.addictinginfo.org/2012/11/02/538-poll-update-of-republican-doom-obamas-chances-of-winning-at-81-1/
nate silver, this guy is always wrong ::)
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Romney is a cheat and a dirtbag
http://www.opednews.com/articles/UAW-Files-Charges-Against-by-Greg-Palast-121102-673.html
nothing wrong with profiting and hiding your dough off of internal info right?
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As for early voting in the state, the Colorado Secretary of State's office reports that over 1.3 million ballots have already been cast here. Of those, 457,337 are Democrats, 493, 457 are Republicans and 341,920 are from voters registered as "unaffiliated." The number of ballots cast so far is already more than half, 53.9 percent, of the total votes cast in 2008.
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Colorado going to Romney.
Karl Rove cited similar numbers, regarding Ohio. He stated on his trusty whiteboard that, as of Thursday night, there were just over a million early votes. Of those, Obama had about 547,000; Romney had 470,000.
To put that in perspective that's 165,000 FEWER voters than Obama had against McCain; whereas Romney had over 98,000 more than McCain did four years ago.
The difference between Obama's losses and Romney's gains over McCain is 265,000 votes; recall that Obama won Ohio by 262,000 votes.
The actual tallies, thus far, seem to reflect what Pew and Gallup have been saying for a week (despite the left's dismissal of their findings): Obama's early vote edge is all but GONE. The narrative is that, if Romney stays close or beats Obama in early votes, he can close the deal on election day, particularly in Ohio.
If Romney gets Colorado and Ohio (and the 30,000+ rally last night is good news for him), that, coupled with Romney sweeping the southeast, gets him the White House at 275 EC votes.
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here comes the ifs :D :D :D :D :D :D :D mchannity votes for if
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here comes the ifs :D :D :D :D :D :D :D mchannity votes for if
Apparently you don't read very well. Obama's early voting numbers, his supposed strength and the Dems' key weapon, are DOWN, WAAAAAY DOWN., just as Gallup and Pew stated.
He's losing in Colorado and barely ahead of Romney in Ohio.
The GOP will have the edge in turnout on election day. As long as Romney stays within striking range of Obama in early voting, he catches and surpasses him on election day and wins it.
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Apparently you don't read very well. Obama's early voting numbers, his supposed strength and the Dems' key weapon, are DOWN, WAAAAAY DOWN., just as Gallup and Pew stated.
He's losing in Colorado and barely ahead of Romney in Ohio.
The GOP will have the edge in turnout on election day. As long as Romney stays within striking range of Obama in early voting, he catches and surpasses him on election day and wins it.
if you thinking this makes you feel better i'm all for it :D :D :D :D :D :D
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if you thinking this makes you feel better i'm all for it :D :D :D :D :D :D
I'm not thinking it, Einstein; those were the numbers.
Ohio, for example: About this time in 2008, Obama has 720,000 early votes; now, he only has 547,000
McCain had 372,000; Romney has 470,000.
And the same trends are happening in other swing states (Florida, Colorado, Virginia, etc), as early votes are tallied. The theme is the same: Obama's numbers WAY DOWN.
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I'm not thinking it, Einstein; those were the numbers.
Ohio, for example: About this time in 2008, Obama has 720,000 early votes; now, he only has 547,000
McCain had 372,000; Romney has 470,000.
And the same trends are happening in other swing states (Florida, Colorado, Virginia, etc), as early votes are tallied. The theme is the same: Obama's numbers WAY DOWN.
Obama is going to win, However, they are already trying to cheat, fucking last second software patches
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Obama is going to win, However, they are already trying to cheat, fucking last second software patches
I wouldn't bet on it, especially with the latest batch of early voting numbers out. It's the same deal: Obama WAY DOWN IN EARLY VOTING!
Colorado
Votes: 1.5 million
Democrats: 35 percent
Republicans: 37 percent
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Florida
Votes: 3.5 million
Democrats: 43 percent
Republicans: 40 percent
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Iowa
Votes: 584,000
Democrats: 43 percent
Republicans: 32 percent
___
Nevada
Votes: 627,000
Democrats: 44 percent
Republicans: 37 percent
___
North Carolina
Votes: 2.3 million
Democrats: 48 percent
Republicans: 32 percent
___
Ohio
Votes: 1.3 million
Democrats: 29 percent
Republicans: 23 percent
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/83176.html
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I wouldn't bet on it, especially with the latest batch of early voting numbers out. It's the same deal: Obama WAY DOWN IN EARLY VOTING!
Colorado
Votes: 1.5 million
Democrats: 35 percent
Republicans: 37 percent
___
Florida
Votes: 3.5 million
Democrats: 43 percent
Republicans: 40 percent
___
Iowa
Votes: 584,000
Democrats: 43 percent
Republicans: 32 percent
___
Nevada
Votes: 627,000
Democrats: 44 percent
Republicans: 37 percent
___
North Carolina
Votes: 2.3 million
Democrats: 48 percent
Republicans: 32 percent
___
Ohio
Votes: 1.3 million
Democrats: 29 percent
Republicans: 23 percent
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/83176.html
Did you read what you just posted?
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Did you read what you just posted?
Yes I did. Those numbers are WAY DOWN from 2008.
Did you read what I posted earlier?
The issue isn't just whether Obama is ahead of Romney in early voting. It's HOW FAR AHEAD Obama is (in the case of Colorado; he's actually behind).
As long as Romney's close, he can overtake Obama on election day and BEAT him. And, given the electorate shift in the last four years, I like his chances.