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Getbig Main Boards => Politics and Political Issues Board => Topic started by: WOOO on February 11, 2013, 04:11:13 AM
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http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/nov/09/china-overtake-us-four-years-oecd (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/nov/09/china-overtake-us-four-years-oecd)
China's economy to overtake US in next four years, says OECD
China will overtake the US in the next four years to become the largest economy in the world, says a leading international thinktank.
The Paris-based Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said China's economy will be larger than the combined economies of the eurozone countries by the end of this year, and will overtake the US by the end of 2016.
Global GDP will grow by 3% a year over the next 50 years, it says, but there will be large variations between countries and regions. By 2025, it says the combined GDP of China and India will be bigger than that of France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US and Canada put together. Asa Johansson, senior economist at the OECD, said: "It is quite a shift in the balance of economic power we are going to see in the future."
Inequalities will persist, even though people in the poorest countries will see their income more than quadruple by 2060, with those in China and India seeing a more than a seven-fold increase. By 2060, the OECD says living standards in the emerging countries will still only be 25%-60% of the level enjoyed by those in the US.
Global imbalances, which created the conditions for the crash of 2007, will continue to widen and reach pre-crisis levels by 2030, it said. In the short term, this is largely a cyclical effect of the financial crisis. So the US, which had a large budget deficit before the crisis, experienced a sharper downturn than China, which had a budget surplus.
The OECD warned that rising imbalances could undermine growth. But, it said, if countries undertook more ambitious reforms with regards to labour and production, they could be reduced. Johansson said these could address how easy it was to hire and fire employees, or regulations around starting up a business and restrictions over foreign business investment.
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Currently US GDP - 15 trillion
China GDP - 7 trillion
So in four years they expect a 115%+ increase in China's GDP? Based on what? Magic?
Fucking retarded.
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Currently US GDP - 15 trillion
China GDP - 7 trillion
So in four years they expect a 115%+ increase in China's GDP? Based on what? Magic?
Fucking retarded.
If we do not bring manufacturing back to the US, then it is not completely impossible to think that their economy could in fact grow... Then again, with over 1 Billion people, they SHOULD have a bigger GDP.
Unfortunately, it barely changes their standard of living. Sad really.
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If we do not bring manufacturing back to the US, then it is not completely impossible to think that their economy could in fact grow... Then again, with over 1 Billion people, they SHOULD have a bigger GDP.
Unfortunately, it barely changes their standard of living. Sad really.
I'm not doubting that it will happen, there really isn't a question of that. What I'm doubting is the more than doubling of GDP in 4 years time.
There are very good concerns over the validity of their centrally planned growth model and how long that can be sustained. If they were to move to a mixed market and capitalism their economy would explode beyond reason and the US would become the new exporter of cheap labor to China.
The chances of that happening our about as good as my dick growing another 6 inches.
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I
The chances of that happening our about as good as my dick growing another 6 inches.
you should consult the Rev Jon Hardinman about that, any thing is possible on this website
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you should consult the Rev Jon Hardinman about that, any thing is possible on this website
I'm too old to give a fuck about it at this point =)
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Currently US GDP - 15 trillion
China GDP - 7 trillion
So in four years they expect a 115%+ increase in China's GDP? Based on what? Magic?
Fucking retarded.
There's indeterminacy in calculating the future value of an average joe's retirement account on the basis of just a few variables, but this organization is highly confident that it has determined the relative future values of huge economic units which take in hundreds if not thousands of inputs?
I don't pretend to be privy to the mathematical/statistical methods such a reputable group utilizes, but one has to wonder about the number of assumptions made and the sensitivity of the outputs to changes in these assumptions.
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There's indeterminacy in calculating the future value of an average joe's retirement account on the basis of just a few variables, but this organization is highly confident that it has determined the relative future values of huge economic units which take in hundreds if not thousands of inputs?
I don't pretend to be privy to the mathematical/statistical methods such a reputable group utilizes, but one has to wonder about the number of assumptions made and the sensitivity of the outputs to changes in these assumptions.
the U.S, is getting ready to blast off in terms of it's economy....we are producing lots of oil and we will soon be the worlds' bigggest oil producer......plus we will be free of being gouged by OPEC.....we are in a very good position for the future
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Not surprised this news made an impression on our Chinese-Canadian friend Wu.
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Is this the same China that reported growth of 8% last year when in reality it was more like 3-4%? Yeah, wake me when I give a shit. ::)
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Is this the same China that reported growth of 8% last year when in reality it was more like 3-4%? Yeah, wake me when I give a shit. ::)
it's true that growth numbers (like most numbers) can be manipulated but including or excluding certain factors
Not surprised this news made an impression on our Chinese-Canadian friend Wu.
guess again