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Getbig Main Boards => Politics and Political Issues Board => Topic started by: Necrosis on May 20, 2013, 04:44:57 PM
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With the austerity movement dead, basing it's major thrust on a flawed paper it is apparent the stimulus based approaches work best to climb out of recession.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ian-reifowitz/europe-sticks-with-austerity_b_3306323.html
I also think based on the US and there fast recovery (relatively) the debate is settled.
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With the austerity movement dead, basing it's major thrust on a flawed paper it is apparent the stimulus based approaches work best to climb out of recession.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ian-reifowitz/europe-sticks-with-austerity_b_3306323.html
I also think based on the US and there fast recovery (relatively) the debate is settled.
LMFAO
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With the austerity movement dead, basing it's major thrust on a flawed paper it is apparent the stimulus based approaches work best to climb out of recession.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ian-reifowitz/europe-sticks-with-austerity_b_3306323.html
I also think based on the US and there fast recovery (relatively) the debate is settled.
Pro-Tip: There was really never any real austerity being done.
I gotta love your use of "apparent" in relation to "stimulus based approaches" working. How's Japan been rollin' these past 30 years? How has the our wonderful land of the U.S.A. been doing since the awe inspiring 800 billion dollar per year stimulus plan was put into action so many years ago? And yes, that 800 billion has been an official part of the budget since it's inception. Recovery Summer ring any bells?
The debate isn't settled. To say so is laughable. If you hitching your Stimulus Wagon to the U.S. and Japan you will be in a ditch before you leave the homestead. Japan is fucked, this tripling down on proven BoJ failed policies has juiced the stock market but done little else, short term inflationary gains in exchange for another generations worth of capital and wealth. Plus, Japans "Stimulus" is out of the BoJ and thus it is a monetary program and not a fiscal one. There is a huge difference and the author either not knowing the difference or not being up front about it kind of invalidates the article.
Austerity = Fiscal.
Nice try, though.
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With the austerity movement dead, basing it's major thrust on a flawed paper it is apparent the stimulus based approaches work best to climb out of recession.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ian-reifowitz/europe-sticks-with-austerity_b_3306323.html
I also think based on the US and there fast recovery (relatively) the debate is settled.
Case closed. Ask Europe how that austerity thing is working? LMFAO! Imagine if Obama and the Dem's weren't such sell outs and we had back those 750,000 govt. jobs. Unemployement would be even lower. Deficit and debt would also be much lower. Stimulus trickles down. Tax cuts and austerity are just piles of shit rolling down hill.
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Case closed. Ask Europe how that austerity thing is working? LMFAO! Imagine if Obama and the Dem's weren't such sell outs and we had back those 750,000 govt. jobs. Unemployement would be even lower. Deficit and debt would also be much lower. Stimulus trickles down. Tax cuts and austerity are just piles of shit rolling down hill.
No.
First, Europe didn't really attempt austerity, although you seem to biting that false meme, hook line and sinker.
Stimulus trickles down? And when that money runs out, what then? I bet you had a big "Summer of Recovery" banner hanging from your place of residence, oh so many years ago. Also, Japan has been doing massive fiscal stimulus for about 20+ years....how'd that work out?
Good lord.
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No.
First, Europe didn't really attempt austerity, although you seem to biting that false meme, hook line and sinker.
Stimulus trickles down? And when that money runs out, what then? I bet you had a big "Summer of Recovery" banner hanging from your place of residence, oh so many years ago. Also, Japan has been doing massive fiscal stimulus for about 20+ years....how'd that work out?
Good lord.
they did attempt austerity, it's bullshit, based off of spurious findings with flawed statistical analysis.
Previous years do not matter as we are talking about during recession, the previous 30 years are of no utility. What we can do is a comparison of countries using stimulus vs non-stimulus vs austerity vs whatever and simply do a linear regression analysis with the multiple variables. We see that stimulus based recovery plans tend to produce quicker recovery or halting of decline inverse to austerity.
I don't think it's obvious with longitudinal of this nature too many variables are often confounding, however, at worst it indicates that austerity is a bad approach and that stimulus is possibly useful.
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LMFAO
nice comment meat pie.
Why don't you start another 50 threads with sensationalist bullshit, you crazy loon.
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they did attempt austerity
No, they didn't.
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nice comment meat pie.
Why don't you start another 50 threads with sensationalist bullshit, you crazy loon.
;D
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;D
Europe has not done austerity. They still have insanely high taxes, spend way too much, and still are largely an anti business situation.
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Pro-Tip: There was really never any real austerity being done.
I gotta love your use of "apparent" in relation to "stimulus based approaches" working. How's Japan been rollin' these past 30 years? How has the our wonderful land of the U.S.A. been doing since the awe inspiring 800 billion dollar per year stimulus plan was put into action so many years ago? And yes, that 800 billion has been an official part of the budget since it's inception. Recovery Summer ring any bells?
The debate isn't settled. To say so is laughable. If you hitching your Stimulus Wagon to the U.S. and Japan you will be in a ditch before you leave the homestead. Japan is fucked, this tripling down on proven BoJ failed policies has juiced the stock market but done little else, short term inflationary gains in exchange for another generations worth of capital and wealth. Plus, Japans "Stimulus" is out of the BoJ and thus it is a monetary program and not a fiscal one. There is a huge difference and the author either not knowing the difference or not being up front about it kind of invalidates the article.
Austerity = Fiscal.
Nice try, though.
End of thread.
Ok, Necrosis. Hurry up and post another delusional topic. You must be a masochist.
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Europe has not done austerity. They still have insanely high taxes, spend way too much, and still are largely an anti business situation.
You don't know what austerity is.
France, Spain, Italy, Greece amongst others have gone the austerity route. Maybe you should read some actual facts instead of right wing bullshit.
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End of thread.
Ok, Necrosis. Hurry up and post another delusional topic. You must be a masochist.
you don't like rebuttals? Japan has seen unprecedented growth largely in part to government stimulus not seen previously in there economics. The past thirty years are meaningless without context.
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Pro-Tip: There was really never any real austerity being done.
I gotta love your use of "apparent" in relation to "stimulus based approaches" working. How's Japan been rollin' these past 30 years? How has the our wonderful land of the U.S.A. been doing since the awe inspiring 800 billion dollar per year stimulus plan was put into action so many years ago? And yes, that 800 billion has been an official part of the budget since it's inception. Recovery Summer ring any bells?
The debate isn't settled. To say so is laughable. If you hitching your Stimulus Wagon to the U.S. and Japan you will be in a ditch before you leave the homestead. Japan is fucked, this tripling down on proven BoJ failed policies has juiced the stock market but done little else, short term inflationary gains in exchange for another generations worth of capital and wealth. Plus, Japans "Stimulus" is out of the BoJ and thus it is a monetary program and not a fiscal one. There is a huge difference and the author either not knowing the difference or not being up front about it kind of invalidates the article.
Austerity = Fiscal.
Nice try, though.
It's fine and dandy to say future probabilities may sink my argument however, how is the US doing compared to other countries who faced similar recessions and did not opt to utilize a stimulus. If my hypothesis is correct, then they would be fairing better across the board, what are the results again?
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you don't like rebuttals? Japan has seen unprecedented growth largely in part to government stimulus not seen previously in there economics. The past thirty years are meaningless without context.
A few months of slight uptake in their economy and you think that it is due to stimulus and sustainable.
Government stimulus is only temporary relief.
Again. You lose.
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The fact that Japan has been doing these stimulus schemes for 2 decades straight (both monetary and fiscal) should tell you all you need to know about the effectiveness of said stimulus schemes.
This most recent one, by the BoJ, is monetary/money printing and intended to spike the stock market while killing the yen to aid their export based economy. Thing is, the BoJ and Japanese govt. have been working together for 2 decades in keeping the Yen suppressed artificially and yet here they are in 2013 with another stimulus scheme, if those schemes work so well why are they keep doing them 2+ decades on?
The like the smack junkie that needs to stop before he kills himself, always saying he just wants to push off one last time and then he will get clean.
Look at all the stimulus schemes the U.S. has done over the last 7-8 years. Monetary/Fiscal/Trade-In.
-Bush II's tax rebate
-ZIRP
-Cash for Clunkers
-Mortgage tax credits
-American Recovery and Reinvestment Act --> 800 billion up front and 800billion per year as it was added to the budget baseline.
-Trillion dollar deficits
-7 to 9 trillion dollars in fresh debt
-QE 1-3 with no end in sight.
.....Yet here we are still talking about a "fragile recovery," poor labor markets, declining wages for the middle class and there was even a -negative GDP print a quarter or two ago and we are still looking at 350k~ applications for U.E. per week. Still have a growing jobs deficit as well, more people out of work now than at the beginning of the crisis.
That is some success story.
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I thought we were supposed to have another recession since the "sequester" took effect?
thats what obama and the rest of the fundy liberals told us?
what happend necrosis?
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No, they didn't.
Yes, they did.
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With the austerity movement dead, basing it's major thrust on a flawed paper it is apparent the stimulus based approaches work best to climb out of recession.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ian-reifowitz/europe-sticks-with-austerity_b_3306323.html
I also think based on the US and there fast recovery (relatively) the debate is settled.
The lack of physical commonsense is mind numbing. You don't create debt to get out of debt....you know, I can't even believe this has to be explained. Liberalism has fucked this country up to no end. Fuck, you can't even balance a checkbook, oh wait, you still have checks, you must have money.
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1. Here is a seemingly balanced article on the issue of how quickly to reduce spending (if it isn't relatively balanced, I'm too stupid to notice):
http://www.voxeu.org/article/fiscal-consolidation-what-speed
2. There is a surprising dearth of research indicating that high debt-to-GDP loads negatively influence growth and other macroeconomic variables. What Necrosis is referring to in the OP is a paper that many in the pro-austerity camp leaned on as definite evidence of this proposition, a paper whose findings were recently found to be null due to an excel spreadsheet error.
3. Looking to Japan's plight for insights on the U.S.'s situation may be instructive, but a case study such as this is extremely limited and cannot compare to the quantitative analyses carried out by economists on a regular basis, analyses which often range over a century plus of data and dozens of countries. It is these analyses which continually fail to demonstrate a causal link between increased debt-to-GDP and lower growth.
4. As Necrosis indicates, what I'll here call "stimulus-positive" countries (countries that launched significant stimulus efforts in the midst of the latest downturn) have fared much better than stimulus-negative ones during the post-Great Recession period. Still, it is early days yet and it may be that in exchange for extreme short-term pain, the pro-austerity countries will be rewarded in a way the stimulus-positive ones will not, and conversely it may be that the stimulus-positive countries will suffer in the long-term as a result of not adopting austerity (or, waiting too long to do so).
5. Gigantor, I'm not sure what you mean when you say the peripheral Eurozone countries haven't really engaged in austerity. Is this a semantic issue where you're leaning on an alternative notion of 'austerity'?
6. Further, in the case of the U.S., what alternative to actual policy do you presume would have been better? Doing nothing? There seems to be an implicit prescription behind your words that some mysterious alternative should have been adopted. An oft-forgotten element of these discussions is that policymakers are making decisions with a limited set of options before them. So, what was a viable alternative to the Obama Administration's emphasis on credible medium-term (not short-term, clearly) fiscal consolidation which would have us in a superior economic position by now or in the future?
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OK, I actually read the article in the OP.
Japan had positive quarters in 2011 (2.5%; 10% annualized) and 2012 (1.5%; 8% annualized) yet didn't grow at all in either year. So Japan has clocked in its positive quarter for 2013 early. Given the long-term pattern, one good quarter so far isn't at all firm evidence that the new fiscal policies are fueling growth, let alone fueling growth in a non-bubbly fashion that will be good for Japan in the long-term. This article is a fail!
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1. Here is a seemingly balanced article on the issue of how quickly to reduce spending (if it isn't relatively balanced, I'm too stupid to notice):
http://www.voxeu.org/article/fiscal-consolidation-what-speed
2. There is a surprising dearth of research indicating that high debt-to-GDP loads negatively influence growth and other macroeconomic variables. What Necrosis is referring to in the OP is a paper that many in the pro-austerity camp leaned on as definite evidence of this proposition, a paper whose findings were recently found to be null due to an excel spreadsheet error.
3. Looking to Japan's plight for insights on the U.S.'s situation may be instructive, but a case study such as this is extremely limited and cannot compare to the quantitative analyses carried out by economists on a regular basis, analyses which often range over a century plus of data and dozens of countries. It is these analyses which continually fail to demonstrate a causal link between increased debt-to-GDP and lower growth.
4. As Necrosis indicates, what I'll here call "stimulus-positive" countries (countries that launched significant stimulus efforts in the midst of the latest downturn) have fared much better than stimulus-negative ones during the post-Great Recession period. Still, it is early days yet and it may be that in exchange for extreme short-term pain, the pro-austerity countries will be rewarded in a way the stimulus-positive ones will not, and conversely it may be that the stimulus-positive countries will suffer in the long-term as a result of not adopting austerity (or, waiting too long to do so).
5. Gigantor, I'm not sure what you mean when you say the peripheral Eurozone countries haven't really engaged in austerity. Is this a semantic issue where you're leaning on an alternative notion of 'austerity'?
6. Further, in the case of the U.S., what alternative to actual policy do you presume would have been better? Doing nothing? There seems to be an implicit prescription behind your words that some mysterious alternative should have been adopted. An oft-forgotten element of these discussions is that policymakers are making decisions with a limited set of options before them. So, what was a viable alternative to the Obama Administration's emphasis on credible medium-term (not short-term, clearly) fiscal consolidation which would have us in a superior economic position by now or in the future?
Good thoughts from Syntaxmachine.
On #5, The majority of countries in the EU did not cut baseline budgets, that's what the "Anti-Austerity" movement is claiming. That the U.K. and such are savagely cutting budgets and leaving people to die in the streets and causing a depression. The cutting really didn't happen. Austerity isn't cause of the Eurozone recession, to say so is silly.
#6 - I would love to raise interest rates to rebuild savings and capital and for the govt. to start enforcing the rule of law when it comes to the financial sector. Break up the TBTF institutions and repeal the ACA, start credible work on reforming entitlements etc. Notice that these things are part of a foundation and are structural. More stimulus, more suicidal Fed policies are like injecting a terminal cancer patient on his death bed with meth and morphine to wake him up for a bit. They aren't long term solutions, simply band aids.
Like Japan, when you engage in band-aids with fiscal/monetary gimmicks you just may end up doing those forever and burning up a hell of a lot of capital on mal-investment. I will admit that Japan is unique in its demographics and export focused economy, but the situation with their zombie banks and industries, real estate bubbles, their own stock market bubbles are similar to to ours in the U.S. There response to those bubbles bursting also mirrors ours in many ways.
When it comes to Debt-GDP or debt as a whole, my biggest worry is the overall interest payments as part of the federal budget. Its a hell of an overhang at this point (~300 billion and growing) and with the Fed policies + Federal borrowing and debt accumulation backing the U.S. into a policy corning, we may never, ever see real interest rates rise and the middle class+savers+retired will forever be robbed. It also puts the U.S. in a bind with Treasury auctions, how long can the Fed keep buying ~65% of all U.S. debt? What if a few nations get shaky knees and sit out an auction? If interest rates rise 1% or so on U.S. Treasury's, than the Federal Govt. is fucked. There isn't a lot of wiggle room.
I tried my best to address your questions, but it's early and I haven't had any coffee. Pick it apart and I will do my best to refine my answer.
If you want an actual policy discussion I would imaging it would require its own thread.
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OK, I actually read the article in the OP.
Japan had positive quarters in 2011 (2.5%; 10% annualized) and 2012 (1.5%; 8% annualized) yet didn't grow at all in either year. So Japan has clocked in its positive quarter for 2013 early. Given the long-term pattern, one good quarter so far isn't at all firm evidence that the new fiscal policies are fueling growth, let alone fueling growth in a non-bubbly fashion that will be good for Japan in the long-term. This article is a fail!
Double end of thread.
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There are many who are not convinced that the steps taken by Japan will even help.
Global stock markets were volatile Thursday, with the Japanese benchmark dropping sharply while those in Europe edged higher, as investors muddled through conflicting signals about the state of the global economy.
Questions about whether the U.S. Federal Reserve would begin to withdraw its monetary stimulus program were also a source of uncertainty for markets.
Japan's Nikkei plummeted more than 5 percent, with investors increasingly doubting the government's economic strategy can extricate the country from years of economic malaise. The yen rose against the dollar, generally regarded as a negative for Japan's powerhouse export sector.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100775631
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I thought we were supposed to have another recession since the "sequester" took effect?
thats what obama and the rest of the fundy liberals told us?
what happend necrosis?
I didn't claim that ???
you keep attributing positions to me that I never took or would take.
The sequester was stupid in that it was a shotgun approach to something that requires a more detailed analysis.
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There are many who are not convinced that the steps taken by Japan will even help.
Global stock markets were volatile Thursday, with the Japanese benchmark dropping sharply while those in Europe edged higher, as investors muddled through conflicting signals about the state of the global economy.
Questions about whether the U.S. Federal Reserve would begin to withdraw its monetary stimulus program were also a source of uncertainty for markets.
Japan's Nikkei plummeted more than 5 percent, with investors increasingly doubting the government's economic strategy can extricate the country from years of economic malaise. The yen rose against the dollar, generally regarded as a negative for Japan's powerhouse export sector.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100775631
Wait, hold on a second, stop the presses.....you mean to tell me that investors are saying that doing all the stuff that failed in past, except more, will fail again?
Shocking.
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I didn't claim that ???
you keep attributing positions to me that I never took or would take.
The sequester was stupid in that it was a shotgun approach to something that requires a more detailed analysis.
I never said you said it, you need to comprehend a little bit better.
I said it was what fundy libtards like the ones who yell about stimulus were saying...
funny how the economy really "turned the corner" after the sequester went into effect isnt it?