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Getbig Main Boards => General Topics => Topic started by: Slapper on August 27, 2014, 07:01:13 PM
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Is it me or have any of you heard of a market correction in the 40-60% range?
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Is it me or have any of you heard of a market correction in the 40-60% range?
I'm figuring 20 - 30%, but you never know. It is coming though.
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The problems that caused the 2008 meltdown were just papered over, never corrected.
Nothing has changed... in fact, things have gotten worse since then. People that rely on CNBC for economic information are being lied to.
This next crash is going to be the worse economic and financial crash the world has ever seen. It will make 1929 seem like a picnic. Get prepared.
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Love conspiracy theorists.
"Worst financial crash in history coming. Predicted to be far worse than the great depression. My team of economists accurately predicted 911, the non impact of y2k and the 08 recession. You need to be prepared. In order to protect your family purchase my new book "How to prepare for the next greater depression"....."
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We're certainly overdue for one, but I haven't heard any indication that it'll be abnormally large.....also, 40-60% isn't really a "market correction"
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hhaa no one is even bothering wasting time and money throwing it in the stock faggets.the only people that take risks are the ones who do nothing but do stock shit all day. the rest of people dont own any stocks
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The stock market will either go up or go down in the near future. You've been warned.
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Love conspiracy theorists.
"Worst financial crash in history coming. Predicted to be far worse than the great depression. My team of economists accurately predicted 911, the non impact of y2k and the 08 recession. You need to be prepared. In order to protect your family purchase my new book "How to prepare for the next greater depression"....."
Ignorant ass... open your eyes. Cognitive dissonance.
Don't worry, Jesus will protect you ::)
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The stock market will either go up or go down in the near future. You've been warned.
all of my market analysis points in this same direction.
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It's a fed driven market and with the printing presses slowing down due to the ending of the unprecedented bond buying of the QE program/debacle things will change. With interest rates at zero there has been little for a retail investor to do but plop money into the market.
The bubble will eventually burst on this fed conjured illusion so take profits.
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Getbig always has the best stock advice. I have maximized my portfolio by 2809 percent just by taking the advices of these wise sages.
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America is on the decline and I wouldn't expect much real growth for a long time.
In the real terms the country has been frozen since the 70s.
Europe is showing a real contraction in its economy, I really don't think its long before the latin america economy and european are on an even footing.
Canada is about to have massive issues with its housing markets.
A canadian house is double the cost of their american counter parts.
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America is on the decline and I wouldn't expect much real growth for a long time.
In the real terms the country has been frozen since the 70s.
Europe is showing a real contraction in its economy, I really don't think its long before the latin america economy and european are on an even footing.
Canada is about to have massive issues with its housing markets.
A canadian house is double the cost of their american counter parts.
1. ::)
2. ::)
3. ::)
4. ::)
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Love conspiracy theorists.
"Worst financial crash in history coming. Predicted to be far worse than the great depression. My team of economists accurately predicted 911, the non impact of y2k and the 08 recession. You need to be prepared. In order to protect your family purchase my new book "How to prepare for the next greater depression"....."
It's hardly a matter of conspiracy, only one of economics. A topic about which 99% of the masses are illiterate. You'll forgive me if I include you among the 99%.
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1. ::)
2. ::)
3. ::)
4. ::)
I'm talking about in real terms. I'm sure your people will find some way to manipulate the market to make it look like we have actual growht but we will not.
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I'm talking about in real terms. I'm sure your people will find some way to manipulate the market to make it look like we have actual growht but we will not.
You are a great representation of your country, friend.
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It's a fed driven market and with the printing presses slowing down due to the ending of the unprecedented bond buying of the QE program/debacle things will change. With interest rates at zero there has been little for a retail investor to do but plop money into the market.
The bubble will eventually burst on this fed conjured illusion so take profits.
it might go a few percent more, but if you get out now you can keep what you will lose when she does tip, when it goes history tells us it will go fast and stocks are hard to sell after the market starts falling. Sell now bank it buy back in later, But US stocks are way over valued and corrections are part of the economic cycle.
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The real money is investing in electricity, faggets
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you can't predict this shit, we know it's coming but the nature of the beast is to be mysterious...
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That's highly significant.
I consider that horse-and-buggy thinking.
Ah, Bach
Well, I'm partial to the fugue.
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Yes gentlemen, it is come.
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(http://www.papermag.com/uploaded_images/tumblr_mok12v0v9W1qhnfryo1_500-1.gif)
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Glad to hear about your clouded crystal ball. :o
** Reply hazy, try again. **
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Don't forget that the largest corporate loans made prior to 2008 are starting to reach the end of their life (5-10y loans). The belief in a market recoil is based on these loans turning default. The question is what will happen IF these loans default? After all, these loans were made under the assumption of pre-crash market values, pre-crash hedges and pre-crash leverages. The total amount of burrowed by the large corporations/institutions dwarf the amount burrowed by the pre-crash private house sector.
The problem is that the mathematical models in the risk management sector were "lackluster" to say the least prior to 2008, thus back then large corporations could get away easier with larger leverages. This was mainly because most models didn't assume converging dependence in the outer tails of the used distribution, a thing which seems obvious now to include. In laymen terms, if a crash happens, most sectors will crash. Older models didn't take this into account, which was one reason why the banks and institutions could get away with $1:60 leverages. Thus, loans were made under the assumption that rebalances could be made continuously through these leverages.
Ofcourse, loans have been renegotiated, and some have had their loans terminated earlier (premature default), but there still is a hefty amount of money tied up in loans which will never be repaid.
It is still a hard question to answer, and as a physicist within the financial sector I don't like the "fortune telling" of economists. I prefer raw numbers, as they can be viewed in an objective manner. The data indicates some form of major recoil, but it is till too early to make assumptions of any repercussions.
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we need ESFitness to chime in before anyone gets into a panic.
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I walk past the Bank of England on my lunch break, I better print this whole thread and take it to the new governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney to warn him.
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1. ::)
2. ::)
3. ::)
4. ::)
On number 4, you are aware of the property bubble in canada right?
It's fucking brutal to be honest.
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Let's hope for total Putin fuck up ,new Euro war would be economical gold mine :D
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I walk past the Bank of England on my lunch break, I better print this whole thread and take it to the new governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney to warn him.
Carney, the guy that ruined the Canadian economy before moving on to England.
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On number 4, you are aware of the property bubble in canada right?
It's fucking brutal to be honest.
Biggest housing bubble in the world, but sadly most of the public is oblivious. When it pops, look for the bail-in provision listed on pages 144-145 of the 2013 Federal Action Plan to be implemented to seize deposits.
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Carney, the guy that ruined the Canadian economy before moving on to England.
Yes that's the guy. Can't be anymore useless than Mervyn King.
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I thought it would drop a fair bit last summer when FTSE was getting up over 6800 and dropped to 6200... just went straight back to 6600 and now is around 6800. Markets are overdue a drop of +10% (correction), this has been the longest without a correction for some time.
Thing is it is a total gamble when and how much.
If you shorted and bought gold at right times you'd make good return.
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Nick Toscani is a successful day trader too, perhaps he could join in and shed some light on this....may be then I'll be as flash as he is and afford 2 fake Hublot watches.
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If only the Western would welcome the economic benefits of legalizing pot, economies could rejuvenate overnight.
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Nick Toscani is a successful day trader too, perhaps he could join in and shed some light on this....may be then I'll be as flash as he is and afford 2 fake Hublot watches.
He's too busy on canal street, adding to his watch collection.
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Biggest housing bubble in the world, but sadly most of the public is oblivious. When it pops, look for the bail-in provision listed on pages 144-145 of the 2013 Federal Action Plan to be implemented to seize deposits.
Yeah well apparently the chinese are going after all the corruption money that fled into canada's condo bubble.
So we'll be stuck footing the bill for same chinese fucks, fucking with ours markets.
Its one thing having your market busted by people unable to keep up.
It's another to have a burst caused by the same pricks that caused the bubble.
Canada is in such brutal denial, ever market has to be compared to Vancouvers, which in turn makes everyone feel safe, because no where can be bad as vancouver.
If you point to the fact that vancouver is so retarded because of chinks your labelled as racist and the competition is dropped.
I don't care if the market drops off a cliff, but if it does I sure hope canadians stop acting so naive to the chinese.
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If only the Western would welcome the economic benefits of legalizing pot, economies could rejuvenate overnight.
Was saying this to my gf the other day. I don't even smoke pot but it would make billions in tax revenues and concurrently reduce the financial burden of imprisoning people investigating grow houses etc.
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Yeah well apparently the chinese are going after all the corruption money that fled into canada's condo bubble.
So we'll be stuck footing the bill for same chinese fucks fucking with ours markets.
Its one thing having your market busted by people unable to keep up.
It's another to have a burst caused by the same pricks that caused our market to goto shit.
If you have a problem with Musclecenter and Kyumo then why don't you send them a private message.
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On number 4, you are aware of the property bubble in canada right?
It's fucking brutal to be honest.
None of it concerns you in the least. Your situation won`t change one bit.
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None of it concerns you in the least. Your situation won`t change one bit.
I was just working in fucking construction you dumb fuck. It's the main reason I left toronto( worked right near bay street).
Your one to talk about holding real jobs, only person I've ever met that brags about living off your parents money.
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I was just working in fucking construction you dumb fuck. It's the main reason I left toronto( worked right near bay street).
Your one to talk about holding real jobs, only person I've ever met that brags about living off your parents money.
WTF are you two doing posting so early in the morning? Watching the market? ???
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Is it me or have any of you heard of a market correction in the 40-60% range?
In Jan of 2008, the market had tanked to real low of around 8000 DJ due to the housing bubble collapse and mortgage deal.
In the past 6 yrs the same market has doubled to an all time high of over 16,000DJ( Dow Jones index).
NOBODY can fully predict the market with 100% accuracy due the random nature of world events.
I'm no financial expert, but I don't see any market bubbles ready to implode now. ???
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WTF are you two doing posting so early in the morning? Watching the market? ???
Waiting for school to start.
I live in a different time zone, got myself up at like 4 am to study preping to go back to school.
After working in construction as a laborer/mule, decided I better go back to school before the market shits the bed. Just seeing the way money flew through hands in downtown toronto it was so fucking obvious it's a bubble.
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It's been coming for a while now, but I am continually impressed with the Fed's ability to keep the lid on it. The US government is fully complicit at this point, with phoney-baloney economic statistics and labor rates as well as the not-so-secret POMO balance sheet monetization scheme that keeps pumping more M1 into the economy.
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Most Americans with a net worth of one million dollars or more are self made millionaires, and they are passive investors, meaning they invest in total market, stock and bond index funds and forget about it.
They do re-balance their portfolio maybe once a year to make sure their percentages stay on target, but they don't watch the market, they don't buy and sell stocks like maniacs, and they don't worry about the market's ups and downs.
When you buy and sell stocks, you pay a premium in fees. Add taxes and inflation to this list of things that eat up your gains and you may break even at best, if you are trading stocks all the time.
Invest at least 15% of your salary in total market, stock and bond index funds and forget about it. You'll be glad when you're old enough to retire, and you won't spend your entire life worrying about this stuff.
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If only the Western would welcome the economic benefits of legalizing pot, economies could rejuvenate overnight.
http://www.alternet.org/environment/cannabis-based-batteries-could-charge-your-phone-seconds-and-change-way-we-store-energy (http://www.alternet.org/environment/cannabis-based-batteries-could-charge-your-phone-seconds-and-change-way-we-store-energy)
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Older Canadians who have paper equity in their homes are buying winter homes in Arizona and west Florida like crazy. If their bubble bursts and they owe more to the lender than the property is worth they might default and move into their USA property. There are tens of thousands of Canadian snow birds here in AZ. If they live here full time and spend their retirement dollars here 12 months out of the year it will be boom town for us. Bring it on ehh.
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Older Canadians who have paper equity in their homes are buying winter homes in Arizona and west Florida like crazy. If their bubble bursts and they owe more to the lender than the property is worth they might default and move into their USA property. There are tens of thousands of Canadian snow birds here in AZ. If they live here full time and spend their retirement dollars here 12 months out of the year it will be boom town for us. Bring it on ehh.
Very likely to start happening.
Especially in places like vancouver, where parents are gonna start handing over there homes to their children.
It's already a well established trend in canada for parents to help their kids buy there first condo and in the process inflate the housing costs.
In vancouver it's insane. You pay manhattan house prices for a city that isn't much different from portland.
There answer is because there weather in vancouver is so amazing because its rainy like seattles instead of cold like Chicago's.
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Canada is about to have massive issues with its housing markets.
Yep. In Toronto, dumpy, tear-down pieces of crap with cracked walls, crumbling steps, and moldy basements are costing a million or over. This is a great city, but for f**k's sake. Nuts.
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Yep. In Toronto, dumpy, tear-down pieces of crap with cracked walls, crumbling steps, and moldy basements are costing a million or over. This is a great city, but for f**k's sake. Nuts.
You should see what it's like when it comes time to fix these places up.
People will spend any amount of money. Every new housing development is basically a blank check.
These people are usually clueless morons, 90 percent of the time haven't even been anywhere else in canada. The standard of living you can get else where is so much better, yet these folks have no clue. This isn't the 90s, the rest of canada is doing far better, with toronto having nothing but finance and RND left. Once these immigrants get over their fear of having to speak english and actually interact with canadians, toronto will see a big shift.
I love toronto, but it's turning into a buffalo detroit hybrid in the not too distant future.
When the hangover starts watch the fuck out.
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Will there be a correction? Yes.. that's the easy part. When? No one knows. Do you sit out and miss the possible 10, 15, 20% growth before it happens or do you try and capture some of it while trying to avoid the drop.... We could go years before a correction or it could happen tomorrow. Anyone's guess really
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I am just hoping that it doesn't bring an Army of EBT zombies out when the cards don't get filled on the first day of the month.
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markets looking good today
nearly all my stocks in the green
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Most Americans with a net worth of one million dollars or more are self made millionaires, and they are passive investors, meaning they invest in total market, stock and bond index funds and forget about it.
They do re-balance their portfolio maybe once a year to make sure their percentages stay on target, but they don't watch the market, they don't buy and sell stocks like maniacs, and they don't worry about the market's ups and downs.
When you buy and sell stocks, you pay a premium in fees. Add taxes and inflation to this list of things that eat up your gains and you may break even at best, if you are trading stocks all the time.
Invest at least 15% of your salary in total market, stock and bond index funds and forget about it. You'll be glad when you're old enough to retire, and you won't spend your entire life worrying about this stuff.
Very good points as usual.
And corrections will happen. When they do, those who predicted them will say "I told you so!" and proclaim themselves geniuses even if it happens 1, 5, or 30 years later. ;D
Be wary of those making short term “predictions”. They are usually wrong. It seems that people think they will sound smart and sophisticated to insist that gold will be at $xxxx amount in 6 months, or that it will definitely go down nonstop over the next 20 years, or that they are 100% certain that the S&P will top off at XXXX on this date or that date or whatever. They actually sound silly and arrogant to those who know better.
The richest and smartest will willingly tell you they cannot predict these things with any certainty or accuracy. But some who are perhaps trying to get rich and are somewhat smart will always be predicting that the Dow will fall to 6k or rise 20k during the next year or whatever. No one knows for sure.
For the more agressive "enterprising investor" -who chooses to invest at least some of his money by picking his own investments rather than in index or mutual funds or company stock - it's generally better to invest bottom-up… Find the best individual investment prospects, invest in those as long as they are relatively cheap and rapidly growing, and don't really worry about trying to predict the broad markets or whether or not the overall markets are truly fairly valued yet. Maybe add some commodity exposure, some of a broad market short index as a hedge, and perhaps even some put options on a few companies that appear broken, rapidly declining fundamentally, or otherwise ridiculously overvalued.
I dollar cost average in my retirement accounts that I max out each year, buying shares of various investments in a fixed dollar amount each week. When the values of my investments in those accounts go down, I’m able to buy more shares. When they are up, fewer shares are bought. This ends up being a good thing, and is what everyone should do.
If you make $150k a year and your employer offers matching 401k contributions up to 6%, you can max out at $17,500 each year by only putting in half of that. You’re basically getting nearly $9k in free money each year from your employer to invest. And a Roth 401k will grow tax-free if you have that option.
In my more aggressive taxable accounts, I also dollar cost average a certain amount, and add as much additional money as I can. Since the crash of late ’07 to early ’09, I typically keep anywhere from 15-25% or more in cash set aside to buy other securities for trades / additional investments as opportunities present themselves. When the markets sold off 15% in 2010 and 20% in 2011, I bought much more than usual.
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When rates start to go up, bonds will decline in value - especially US treasuries.
I think we'll probably see a correction if rates spike suddenly, or if we see the earnings trend halt and perhaps reverse.
Some industries are more interest rate sensitive. I've been big on energy for a while, and plan to continue investing heavily there. Besides the Fed, the energy boom in recent years has been keeping the country going.
There will also always be certain biotech plays that will be very volatile and allow for substantial quick profits on either side of the trade.
Tech as well.
Companies in these high-beta, volatile industries are also good to have puts on, since they will also tend to move down significantly when things get rough.
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Corrections happen when the market is overvalued. It may not be the case. 2007 was not a correction it was near systemic collapse.
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;)
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invest in paper. Flex magazines from decades past.
Invest in precious metals - trophies from regional bodybuilding shows will suffice.
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Lol
;D ;D
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;)
X2
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;)
Now you're talking my language.
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The Crank's Handbook of Finance
"It's coming brehs, hyperinflation is coming any day now! The Fed is printing trillions breh! Prepare your anus brehs!!!11"
*Silently slink into the shadows as years of post-Great Recession data disconfirm the imminent hyperinflation hypothesis as the Fed open market operations come to a close; ignore the fact that the compounded growth rate of the CPI has been 1.68% for the last thirty years since the Fed essentially tamed inflation in 1983.*
"It's coming brehs, an imminent financial collapse will bring about the Apocalypse. Get them gold coins and ammo breh!!11"
*Silently slink into the shadows as years of post-Great Recession growth rates, recovery in household balance sheets, and an ever-increasing appetite for consumption all indicate a sluggish but steady recovery, thereby disconfirming the imminent financial collapse hypothesis; ignore capital ratio provisions in Dodd-Frank and enhanced risk aversion on the part of banks that inure the system from another 'too big to fail' shock.*
*Bloody hell brehs the equities bubble is about to pop!!!11 Them rates are gunna be raisin! Get out now brehs oh god oh god!!11"
*Ignore the fact that the interest rate hikes are contingent on economic data and therefore may not even occur; ignore that when they occur they will be far less extensive than the last round of hikes from 1% to 5.25% from 2004-2006; ignore that equities continued to rise through that tightening cycle anyway and were only stopped by the Great Recession. Prepare to silently slink into shadows as the imminent stock bubble collapse hypotheses is disconfirmed.*
Remember, never discuss contrary evidence and NEVER acknowledge any falsified hypotheses -- that would be giving in to the man. And for maximal effect, sprinkle in references to zerohedge posts with unexplained graphs to make it look like you derived your opinion from evidence rather than paranoiac/conspiratorial thought patterns generated from deviant psychological processes.
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;)
Yep. 6 months food/water and close to 20k rounds of ammo. Check.
Also, check these guys out: http://www.ar500armor.com/plate-carriers/plate-carrier-packages-w-armor.html
Rifle capable armor. I have a couple.
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Ignorant ass... open your eyes. Cognitive dissonance.
Don't worry, Jesus will protect you ::)
I made a joke....a play on the all the internet ads about the coming crash......"The market is going to crash - send me $50 to find out....."
Why attack my faith? Completely unrelated. Don't understand some of y'all.
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It's hardly a matter of conspiracy, only one of economics. A topic about which 99% of the masses are illiterate. You'll forgive me if I include you among the 99%.
Somehow I'll have to press on knowing that.
So let's dive a bit deeper. Given what you know how should I prepare? What steps should I take to help assuage the impact of the inevitable?
Take me from blind sheep to surviving wolf.
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Getbig always has the best stock advice. I have maximized my portfolio by 2809 percent just by taking the advices of these wise sages.
That's a better return than the Cell-Tech/Muscle-Tech stack.
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Invest in Gifted Nutrition
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There's money to be made in fear mongering.
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There's money to be made in fear mongering.
wallstreet buys fear and sells greed
or what was that saying again
lol
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Problem is right now - apart from the fact that stock markets are biased to the long side permanently - is there's a shit load of money floating around.
And it's going into the markets.
And they keep going up because of it.
The long bias - as 2Thick says - part of his strategy is dripping money into stuff - averaging in. Look at all the pension funds that do the same thing. Do they ever go short? Nope, they can't - all they can do is buy stuff or go flat. If they go flat and miss moves, they lose clients. So all things being equal, stocks will rise.
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Huge Cock Market Erection Coming
Thats what I read
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wallstreet buys fear and sells greed
or what was that saying again
lol
Buys on rumor, sells on fact.
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Long-only managers and many other managers and more sophisticated investors sometimes write covered calls for income when markets are sluggish and bond interest rates are so low.
And the upward bias of the markets has a lot to do with the "survival of the fittest" nature of the markets and the business world in general. Companies that are good enough and clean enough to go public often do, and those that are good enough to make it onto market indices and continue trading through an exchange must perform well enough to stay there.
I remember when I was working as a retail broker years ago, and old guys who'd been around since the early 80's spoke fondly of when the Dow was barely above 1000. ;D
When you have the Blockbusters fall out of favor and that niche gets filled by the Netflixes, or the Borders and many other various retailers get cut out by the Amazons, the better companies rise up, and the dinosaur industries and companies fall and often disappear completely.
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Getbig Stock Advice.
(http://www.pacovilla.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/money_down_toilet-2.jpg?5b7c08)
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Some of us have had to work for a living. And some of us persued very useful, highly rewarding occupations.
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Don't forget that the largest corporate loans made prior to 2008 are starting to reach the end of their life (5-10y loans). The belief in a market recoil is based on these loans turning default. The question is what will happen IF these loans default? After all, these loans were made under the assumption of pre-crash market values, pre-crash hedges and pre-crash leverages. The total amount of burrowed by the large corporations/institutions dwarf the amount burrowed by the pre-crash private house sector.
The problem is that the mathematical models in the risk management sector were "lackluster" to say the least prior to 2008, thus back then large corporations could get away easier with larger leverages. This was mainly because most models didn't assume converging dependence in the outer tails of the used distribution, a thing which seems obvious now to include. In laymen terms, if a crash happens, most sectors will crash. Older models didn't take this into account, which was one reason why the banks and institutions could get away with $1:60 leverages. Thus, loans were made under the assumption that rebalances could be made continuously through these leverages.
Ofcourse, loans have been renegotiated, and some have had their loans terminated earlier (premature default), but there still is a hefty amount of money tied up in loans which will never be repaid.
It is still a hard question to answer, and as a physicist within the financial sector I don't like the "fortune telling" of economists. I prefer raw numbers, as they can be viewed in an objective manner. The data indicates some form of major recoil, but it is till too early to make assumptions of any repercussions.
Excuse me, but you don't sound much like a physicist. "Major recoil"?
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I'd pay no attention to a "phsyicist" or other type of market "technical expert".
They all work on the sell side of the industry. None of them are traders.
Bottom line is that the toughest trade in the world is a major macro reversal call.
Sure - lots of people will scream that the technicals are bad - but they can scream it for years or months before being "proven" right. You simply cannot trade that way. Partly because you'll hold positions far offside for long periods and partly because of opportunity cost of having margin tied up in unprofitable positions.
Also - this market could pull back 20% and it would only take us back to mid-April or early Feb prices. I'd wouldn't even call that a huge correction.
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That crash just moved forward at a quickening pace in my opinion. France is pissed off,
...and before you start making jokes about the French, they have the 2nd strongest economy in the EU
The Quickening Demise of the US Dollar
Lost in the tumultuous news cycles of the past few weeks was this shell-shocker: The United States imposed a massive $9 billion fine on BNP Paribas, the largest bank in France, for trading with countries that are under U.S. embargo. In addition to this fine was a penalty of not being able to transact in US Dollars for one year.
The fine is extremely large and reflects the American administration’s anger at France. The French are angry as well. They are unhappy at being under the thumb of American regulators due to their exposure to global transactions in USD.
Why does this demand your attention?
First, the fine is against international law because the U.S. is applying its own law extra-territorally. American sanctions are America's affair – at least they’re supposed to be. But lately, the U.S. has been forcing everyone else to play by its rules. In May, the U.S. fined Credit Suisse $2.6 billion for not enforcing U.S. tax laws. Then came the implementation of FATCA on July 1. So the United States wants the international banking community to act not only as its spies, but as its tax enforcement as well.
This entire episode will hasten the decline of the USD as a reserve currency and trading vehicle as nations such as France move away from the dollar to avoid similar incidents in the future.
The French are not known for their adherence to the American view of human rights and the moralistic ideals the U.S. has foisted upon the world over the last fifty or more years.
Washington’s dubious justification for this breach of international law is that the transactions took place in U.S. dollars. Their currency, their business, right? Maybe. But here’s the problem: The international community is quickly figuring out a solution to that little bugaboo.
What happens to that bully down the street when he gets old? Everybody gets old and frail eventually. Even the nasty, sneering lunk who steals everyone’s lunch money realizes one day that he has become a toothless, toddling old fart that no one is afraid of anymore. Everyone stops worrying about him and can go on about their business with one less problem to deal with. But what of the bully? What happens to him?
On the global scene, the United States appears to be that bully. And the bully is indeed getting old and frail. So, now what?
They’re still a bully, to be sure. The fact that they extracted a huge fine from BNP Paribas, a foreign-owned bank, for violating U.S. sanctions against Iran, Cuba and Russia that they never had a say in… well, that’s a bully for you. They throw their weight around, say who you can and can’t talk to, say who you can and can’t sit with at the lunch table, and if they catch you doing it, they chase you down, give you a wedgie, dangle spit over your face and steal your lunch money. And you pay it. Grudgingly. Because you are small. But you go home and immediately plot ways to get around the neighbourhood bully. You might take karate classes. You might work to get bigger and stronger so you can fight back. You might band with other victims to find strength in numbers. You might find alternate routes to and from school. But one thing is for certain. You won’t put up with it forever.
And that’s what’s happening around the world.
The French Finance Minister, in early July, called for a ‘rebalancing’ of currencies used in world trade–and a lessening of the importance of the USD in international finance.
Suddenly other countries are talking to one another. They’re banding together and figuring out how to get strong enough to fight back against the U.S. Just this week, Belgium sat down with BNP to see “what could be learned” from this judgment. Officials from the European Central Bank are not even being coy about what lessons they are learning: Diversify out of the dollar, ASAP. Christian Noyer, governor of the French National Bank and member of the ECB’s governing board, recently said this in an interview:
“Beyond [the BNP] case, increased legal risks from the application of U.S. rules to all dollar transactions around the world will encourage a diversification from the dollar. BNP Paribas was the occasion for many observers to remember that there has been a number of sanctions and that there would certainly be others in the future. A movement to diversify the currencies used in international trade is inevitable. Trade between Europe and China does not need to use the dollar and may be read and fully paid in euros or renminbi. Walking towards a multipolar world is the natural monetary policy, since there are several major economic and monetarily powerful ensembles. China has decided to develop the renminbi as a settlement currency. The Bank of France was behind the popular ECB-PBOC swap and we have just concluded a memorandum on the creation of a system of offshore renminbi clearing in Paris…”
This is a shot across the bow of the U.S. by a close ally and is in concert with efforts by Russia and the other BRICS countries to reduce their dependence on the American currency. This will lead to a loss of financial power by the United States and, over time, will harm the American economy.
It isn’t just France that the U.S. has been targeting. A recent article noted that many other foreign entities are in the U.S. government’s crosshairs: “Lately, the U.S. has been forcing everyone else to play by its rules.
The United States needs to understand that other sovereign countries don’t like to have their behavior dictated to them by the lone superpower in the room, even if they are allies and rely on American defense protection.
This conflict among friends highlights a broad shift in global finance and geopolitical realities. America is becoming weaker by the day financially as they spend money they don’t have and print money as fast as they can like a third world banana republic... this behavior will have consequences.
We are seeing these effects as the world shifts away from USD hegemony. Countries want to hold their assets in a currency that will hold its value. That is not happening with the USD. The Chinese Yuan is rapidly emerging as a counter reserve currency and trading vehicle.
This shift is only hastened and reinforced by American heavy-handed actions in dictating terms to others that trade in dollars. The problem was recently summed up rather eloquently with the statement:
“The United States is bullying itself right out of reserve currency status.
Just as with FATCA, the U.S. is snooping where it has no right to snoop. But the more they do this, the more they bully others, the sooner other nations will find a way around the bully. And then where will that leave the U.S.? Where will that leave the dollar? Where will that leave YOUR savings, YOUR retirement, or any of those assets you own that are denominated in dollars? Where will that leave any of us?”
So there you have it: The United States is bullying itself right out of reserve currency status. And for what? As some façade of a moral crusade against the nations they have under embargo?
The U.S. government appears to be painting everyone into a corner. If you haven’t already protected your portfolio with precious metals, we urge you to get started today.
The bottom line is that people need to make sure their portfolios are hedged against a long-term decline in the value of the American dollar and the loss of the bid the currency has enjoyed since the Bretton Woods agreement at the end of World War II. The world is changing, and these paradigm shifts will have real negative effects on the U.S. economy, American wealth, and anything tied to paper currencies. America's lack of fiscal responsibility is only hastening this reality.
In the face of the dollar’s ongoing decline, as more and more nations align against America's currency, there is a company that has helped thousands of people across 120+ countries, including Americans, to move their savings out of the dollar, out of harms way, and into physical precious metals, because I'm sure you'll agree... the most important economy is the one in your own home... :D
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Major macro reversal called just right within a percent or 2 and within a week or 2 = lucky guess.
The signs of a top or bottom (various macroeconomic factors, extremely high or low buy / sell ratio and high or low volume starting to go the other way, etc) can be there for extended periods, and the markets can continue moving in their current direction for months or years despite these things. Peter Schiff is even saying he's no longer bearish in the short term because he thinks the Fed will likely keep printing and pumping for a while.
I doubt anybody called EVERY top and bottom on even any one major index in the last decade within a percent or two or within a few days or so. Those that I know of who called for the big crash of late '07 to early '09 and got it anywhere near right have also been calling for another crash for about 5 years now.
Nobody knows. The richest and smartest don't even try to guess - they'll gladly tell you it's foolhardy.
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I'm in good shape....deflation, I'll buy more shit.....inflation, I'll pay off all the shit I already bought. And all is right with the world.
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I'm in good shape....deflation, I'll buy more shit.....inflation, I'll pay off all the shit I already bought. And all is right with the world.
??? Don't you mean the other way around??
In times of DEflation... that's when you sell stuff & acquire cash. Your cash goes alot further in deflationary times.
In times of INflation, you buy things before prices go up further
DE-flation = Exchange things for cash
IN-flation = Exchange cash for things
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Buy high, sell low.
What could possibly go wrong?
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Buy high, sell low.
What could possibly go wrong?
celeb nudes get leaked.
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??? Don't you mean the other way around??
In times of DEflation... that's when you sell stuff & acquire cash. Your cash goes alot further in deflationary times.
In times of INflation, you buy things before prices go up further
DE-flation = Exchange things for cash
IN-flation = Exchange cash for things
Nope I'm good the other way around.....
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"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"
nothing matters until the Fed stops printing money.. who knows when that will happen
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"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"
nothing matters until the Fed stops printing money.. who knows when that will happen
That's just it - markets are often irrational. I believe that markets are pretty efficient overall in a general sense, but certainly not entirely and always efficient by any stretch.
I buy good companies when they appear relatively cheap or are rapidly growing (or both) and appear to have good future prospects. If irrational market emotions and overreactions to things (that often may not even pertain to them) make them even cheaper after I've bought them, I'll usually buy more. Bottom-up investing has made me tons of money over 20 years, and has enabled me to hold onto most of it in bad times.
I do this in reverse with companies I'm bearish on, except that I rarely use an actual short stock position, and instead opt for puts in most cases.
Commodities and other alternative investments (real estate stocks, etc) and sometimes higher yielding bonds are also tools I implement.
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That's just it - markets are often irrational. I believe that markets are pretty efficient overall in a general sense, but certainly not entirely and always efficient by any stretch.
I buy good companies when they appear relatively cheap or are rapidly growing (or both) and appear to have good future prospects. If irrational market emotions and overreactions to things (that often may not even pertain to them) make them even cheaper after I've bought them, I'll usually buy more. Bottom-up investing has made me tons of money over 20 years, and has enabled me to hold onto most of it in bad times.
I do this in reverse with companies I'm bearish on, except that I rarely use an actual short stock position, and instead opt for puts in most cases.
Commodities and other alternative investments (real estate stocks, etc) and sometimes higher yielding bonds are also tools I implement.
god bless your ability with options... I have gotten absolutely killed buying options due to time decay. I was right 99% of the positions but my timing was waaaaay off. Position always moved in my favor as soon as the option expired or was close enough to it rendering it worthless.
In this market it seems like you could make a killing by writing puts all day long
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I was really into "everything is going to collapse" about 8 years ago.
Now I just feel it'll be a gradual decline over decades, like the frog in the boiling water enjoying the warming bath.
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god bless your ability with options... I have gotten absolutely killed buying options due to time decay. I was right 99% of the positions but my timing was waaaaay off. Position always moved in my favor as soon as the option expired or was close enough to it rendering it worthless.
In this market it seems like you could make a killing by writing puts all day long
I've found that volatility is a friend when buying options and an enemy when writing (selling) them. And I don't write uncovered options. I try to go out as longterm as I can and still get a decent price when buying them, and I simply look at other investments or do nothing if I cannot get a decent price on an option for a decent timeframe for a particular security.
My personal opinion (that some may certainly disagree with) as a longtime investor and experienced advisor is that options and other advanced techniques such as frequent trading will be more likely to be successful if one has lots of money to offset transaction costs, taxes, and losses. Having $1k or more worth of net realized losses / STCG taxes / expired options in a month is devastating financially if you have $10k. It's not so bad if you have millions - although it can certainly still become a problem if such losses become frequent and larger and gains slow down or stop for any length of time.
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I've found that volatility is a friend when buying options and an enemy when writing (selling) them. And I don't write uncovered options. I try to go out as longterm as I can and still get a decent price when buying them, and I simply look at other investments or do nothing if I cannot get a decent price on an option for a decent timeframe for a particular security.
My personal opinion (that some may certainly disagree with) as a longtime investor and experienced advisor is that options and other advanced techniques such as frequent trading will be more likely to be successful if one has lots of money to offset transaction costs, taxes, and losses. Having $1k or more worth of net realized losses / STCG taxes / expired options in a month is devastating financially if you have $10k. It's not so bad if you have millions - although it can certainly still become a problem if such losses become frequent and larger and gains slow down or stop for any length of time.
I agree with everything you said... and just my .02 but thats why the rich get richer while the poor get assraped trying to invest... just dont have the capital to weather large drawdowns.
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It will be interesting to see how Scotland affects it all. :D
...but I'm sure the powers that be will have another huge spectacle to distract everyone again.
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nothing to see here... move along.. :o :o :o
(https://alexhoug.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/infographic_final_2.png)
https://alexhoug.com/brace-fall-united-states-empire
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nothing to see here... move along.. :o :o :o
(https://alexhoug.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/infographic_final_2.png)
https://alexhoug.com/brace-fall-united-states-empire
whats the ratio of avg. company earnings to worker pay over the same time period?
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If CEO pay is mostly or entirely based upon stock performance and profitability, they should be making very good money when the company is doing well. I have no problem with Harold Hamm making billions in a year when he owns 2/3 of CLR's stock and the stock and profits are through the roof.
http://performance.morningstar.com/stock/performance-return.action?t=CLR®ion=usa&culture=en-US (http://performance.morningstar.com/stock/performance-return.action?t=CLR®ion=usa&culture=en-US)
No capitalist, business person, or investor should have a problem with this.
If the CEO owns little or no stock and is paid 8 figures a year in cash regardless of how good or bad the company does, then that's a shitty CEO working for what is most likely a shitty board and shitty company. I wouldn't want to invest in such a company, and would hope that workers for such a company generally only used such a company as a stepping stone to better career opportunities.
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If CEO pay is mostly or entirely based upon stock performance and profitability, they should be making very good money when the company is doing well. I have no problem with Harold Hamm making billions in a year when he owns 2/3 of CLR's stock and the stock and profits are through the roof.
http://performance.morningstar.com/stock/performance-return.action?t=CLR®ion=usa&culture=en-US (http://performance.morningstar.com/stock/performance-return.action?t=CLR®ion=usa&culture=en-US)
No capitalist, business person, or investor should have a problem with this.
If the CEO owns little or no stock and is paid 8 figures a year in cash regardless of how good or bad the company does, then that's a shitty CEO working for what is most likely a shitty board and shitty company. I wouldn't want to invest in such a company, and would hope that workers for such a company generally only used such a company as a stepping stone to better career opportunities.
exactly why im curious as to the avg company earnings during the same period.
the average person however doesnt understand that and only sees what the graphic posted earlier shows.
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If CEO pay is mostly or entirely based upon stock performance and profitability, they should be making very good money when the company is doing well. I have no problem with Harold Hamm making billions in a year when he owns 2/3 of CLR's stock and the stock and profits are through the roof.
http://performance.morningstar.com/stock/performance-return.action?t=CLR®ion=usa&culture=en-US (http://performance.morningstar.com/stock/performance-return.action?t=CLR®ion=usa&culture=en-US)
No capitalist, business person, or investor should have a problem with this.
If the CEO owns little or no stock and is paid 8 figures a year in cash regardless of how good or bad the company does, then that's a shitty CEO working for what is most likely a shitty board and shitty company. I wouldn't want to invest in such a company, and would hope that workers for such a company generally only used such a company as a stepping stone to better career opportunities.
correct me if I am wrong, but as I remember the stock market crashes in 2002 and 2008 both happened in periods where the gap between worker and CEO wages was huge.
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correct me if I am wrong, but as I remember the stock market crashes in 2002 and 2008 both happened in periods where the gap between worker and CEO wages was huge.
I don't know offhand if that's absolutely correct or not. It may depend upon which companies and how many you're looking at. If it's 8000 public companies, or the Russell 2000, or the S&P 500, or the Dow 30, the answer may differ.
Also, if you're talking about a one year period here and there when the markets top off, it would seem likely that a CEO with lots of company stock would be making big bucks when the company stock hit a top.
And there's also the matter of how their company stock did and if they were likely buying more of it throughout the year via dollar cost averaging - if the company stock was only down 10% when the S&P was down 40%, if they were buying more shares each month as the stock declined in price, etc.
Also, you may get different stats from different writers at different websites. Is the writer including stock performance in both good AND bad years? Are they adding tens or hundreds of millions or more to the CEO compensation figure in years the stock goes up, and failing to subtract whatever paper losses the CEO would likely have to his annual comp in a year when the stock gets hit hard?
They are also typically getting cash bonuses for actual profitability - which can occur even in years when the stock market crashes and just about all stocks suffer at least some loss. Foolhardy IMO to just pick one year here and there and make blanket assumptions about most or all companies and their managements across the board without detailed info on each company and on how the data is gathered.
But I definitely believe that pay should be tied almost entirely or entirely to stock performance and profitability. If the stock is falling and profits are decreasing or nonexistent, the CEO should make little or nothing.
Most compensation should be in stock. I would not want to invest in a company with little or no management ownership in stock, and little or no comp paid out in stock.
It is the board’s responsibility to make sure CEO pay is not excessive, is based upon performance and incentives, and that they act in the shareholders’ best interests. This also means that the CEO and Chairman roles should always be held by different individuals, unless the CEO is the majority shareholder.
If the board fails in it’s responsibilities to the shareholders, it is up to the shareholders to affect change. This is where shareholder activism comes into play – boards are routinely partially or fully replaced, CEOs fired, etc. I just bought a few thousand bucks worth of Hertz after this very thing happened in the past week or two.
But it is NOT the place of big govt to meddle in this. As long as no fraud is going on, and everyone is paid at least the minimum wage as required by law, the free markets and our own free choices should dictate which companies we work for or invest in. And we’re all free to start our own companies and pay / overpay ourselves as we see fit as well.
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Dont ever be' sellin' when Janet be' Yellen!!!
(http://blogs-images.forbes.com/johntamny/files/2014/06/10547392033_9accff5c59_b.jpg)
(http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/51P7PSD888L.jpg)
(http://www.economielokaal.nl/wp-content/uploads/helicopter-ben-bernanke.jpg)
Seems like there is ZERO risk in buying anything right now
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Christine Madeleine Odette Lagarde, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, has warned that the stock market is overpriced and volatile.
Just look at the MSCI world from the last 6 months. The development is not totally stable:
(http://i.imgur.com/MoAZgnS.jpg)
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Excuse me, but you don't sound much like a physicist. "Major recoil"?
I'm a filthy foreigner, so it was a bad choice of term due to bad translation from my side, what I meant was an abrupt market correction.
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Has the correction happened yet?
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Has the correction happened yet?
S&P500 as a market indicator.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGSPC+Interactive#%7B%22range%22%3A%22max%22%2C%22scale%22%3A%22linear%22%7D
Even prior to the financial meltdown, SP was up to ~1500 at most. We are at 2000 now. As you can observe, there are severe corrections appearing with a cyclical trend. From the looks of it, we are standing somewhere around the top (or still climbing).
Nasdaq, DJ, SP http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGSPC&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=%5EGSPC%2C%5EIXIC%2C%5EDJI
Cyclical behaviour in the past 15-20 years.
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Has the correction happened yet?
It has in my portfolio. :D
Oil rigs have been taking a real beating lately. :o
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Not a chartist myself. I've found over nearly 21 years that fundamentals are what really matter - earnings, competitive advantages within companies, interest rates, money supply, unusual events such as activist & institutional activity, geopolitical factors, other economic factors, etc.
If a chart pattern or an emotional overreaction triggers a big selloff when fundamentals are still strong, I go in and buy more usually. The opposite is usually true on the short side. I'll likely short more SHLD soon - especially if it gets back up around the $30 "technical level". ::)... They're barely hanging on, borrowing every penny they can - much like JCP, but perhaps worse.
I heard a guy on tv a couple of days ago saying we were in year 5 of a 14 year bull market cycle. Just more proof that no one knows for sure.
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It has in my portfolio. :D
Oil rigs have been taking a real beating lately. :o
I'm big on the drillers myself. Damn Saudi bastards are killin' 'em right now! ;D
And it doesn't help that the dollar is getting stronger - it's affecting gold as well.
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http://www.cnbc.com/id/102048790 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/102048790)
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I'm big on the drillers myself. Damn Saudi bastards are killin' 'em right now! ;D
And it doesn't help that the dollar is getting stronger - it's affecting gold as well.
Yeah, it's been very "interesting" lately. ;D
Are you buying or are you waiting for even better opportunities?
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Has it happened yet? ???
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Has it happened yet? ???
http://money.cnn.com/2014/10/10/investing/stocks-market-correction/
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sorry but exactly where do you see a downtrend here...
buy buy buy.... 100% up room to go with ZERO risk.. FREE MONEY $$$$$
(http://s13.postimg.org/aqasdct93/DOWNTREND.png)
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http://www.marketwatch.com/story/investor-who-predicted-the-subprime-crisis-says-stocks-will-fall-10-plus-2014-10-10
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Yeah, it's been very "interesting" lately. ;D
Are you buying or are you waiting for even better opportunities?
I've spent much of the past week or so "trimming the tree", so to speak. Increasing my overall cash position another 10% or so for now, probably for the rest of '14.
Selling most or all of some highflying names that make little or no actual profit like twitter that have also recently had a big run up.
Sold off most of my SWHC I've owned for many years when it fell back below $10 recently - put much of that $ into ATK.
Took about half my PXD profits off the table when it dipped below $200, bought a put when it double dipped below that level.
Buying a little more puts / shorts overall on the HLFs and other houses of cards, and increasing my shorts on JCP and SHLD - I wouldn't be surprised to see them both either liquidated or on the pink sheets by this time next year.
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Very interesting, thank you for sharing 2Thick!
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I also like to buy pretty long range puts and calls (play the volatility on both sides) on some of the more interesting biotechs that have very promising drug pipelines. Sometimes I'll buy a modest long stock position on one with a put for downside protection if it's really promising. Lots of M&A in this space as well.
Have recently made a few bucks speculating on the ebola drugs - especially Tekmira, which I think will be bought out - hopefully soon.
These biotechs are very speculative and make up a small portion of my portfolio.
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the correction is here. I have stocks for about 2300 euros. I am keeping them since I won't accept short term losses.
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http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-the-most-dangerous-stock-market-since-2008-2014-10-13?dist=lcountdown
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http://simplywall.st/snowflake/grid
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LOL...
wow... market sure looks like its been correcting...LOL
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I'm big on the drillers myself. Damn Saudi bastards are killin' 'em right now! ;D
And it doesn't help that the dollar is getting stronger - it's affecting gold as well.
The Saudis increasing oil production has cratered the price of both oil and oil related stocks. Do you not think that that was deliberate? Obviously they knew that would happen if they increased oil output. If you were in the Saudi's position what would you have done before you increased oil output? Maybe sell your oil and oil related stocks. Saudis don't have to report what they are buying and selling in large amounts to the SEC or any other national agency? Their Sovereign Wealth Fund is reported to be worth at least $750 billion US dollars, and on top of that all the billionaires and large and small multimillionaires in Saudi Arabia, would all have known in advance that they were going to increase the oil supply, and that would lower he price of oil and oil related stocks. So of course they would have sold oil related stocks in advance. They've had 4 or 5 generations, since Ibn Saudi founded the dynasty, educated at the finest universities on Earth. They're not just camel jockeys who were lucky enough to be sitting on a huge amount of oil, they are smart and their investment portfolios are a major part of their wealth. No need to compete against US frackers and Russia, when they can now buy up shares of those companies at a huge discount. That's what the Saudis are doing now. Once they've secured their position in oil and oil related stocks again, then all they have to do is cut oil production, and the price of their oil, and their oil related stocks go up again big time. A win win situation for the Saudis, and totally in their control.
Oil related stock shares will be the big winners next year, but invest in companies based on the fundamentals of each company, at these newly lower prices, for the biggest wins next year.
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Had you purchased Virgin America when it went public last month, today you would have a gain of 24%
Had you purchased Yahoo six months ago, today you would have a gain of 45%
Had you purchased ABAT six months ago, today you would have a gain of 130%
I think Virgin is still a buy, btw. Just saying. 8)
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Had you purchased Virgin America when it went public last month, today you would have a gain of 24%
Had you purchased Yahoo six months ago, today you would have a gain of 45%
Had you purchased ABAT six months ago, today you would have a gain of 130%
I think Virgin is still a buy, btw. Just saying. 8)
of course, the airplane companies are benefitting right now from the low oil price, but will the oil price still be low in six months?
I think the best stock tip right now is just to buy in one of the broad american indexes.
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of course, the airplane companies are benefitting right now from the low oil price, but will the oil price still be low in six months?
I think the best stock tip right now is just to buy in one of the broad american indexes.
Um, who cares? A trader can make his money and be long gone by then. ::)