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Getbig Main Boards => Politics and Political Issues Board => Topic started by: 240 is Back on March 22, 2016, 12:44:54 AM
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Donald Trump has proven political strategists and pundits wrong on nearly every prediction they've made in 2016 thus far, and now we can add another “given” to that list: The assumption that retention of the Republican's House majority was a foregone conclusion. Democratic (and Republican) strategists entered this election cycle generally believing that dismantling the GOP’s 30-seat advantage would require a years-long chipping away effort. But now, Democrats are at least entertaining the possibility of a “wave” election produced by a heavy backlash against Trump. And many Republicans appear to agree, reports Politico:
The House GOP’s leading indicators — its most vulnerable members, like Reps. Bob Dold and Carlos Curbelo — are already sounding the alarm against Trump and his rhetoric on women, Hispanics and other groups. The party’s outside groups are preparing an intensified fundraising push to help defend the chamber. The respected Cook Political Report downgraded Republicans’ chances in 10 districts Friday. And though the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which has been stung by overzealous predictions in past years, won’t say outright that the majority is in play, the party is clearly thinking about it.
Democrats already had reasonable odds of flipping a dozen or so House seats. But DCCC Chairman Ben Ray Luján recently started highlighting “reach” districts, like those of Rep. John Mica in Florida and Rep. Steve Knight in California, that broaden Democrats’ target list enough to take back the chamber — if local candidates can take advantage of the sudden opportunity. Strategists are now turning their attention to moderate suburbs around Detroit, Minneapolis, Washington and other areas where House Democrats have struggled in recent years but Trump has already shown weakness.
dailykos
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dailykos
Lol.
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Lol.
it's easy to do that. But what happens if repubs stay home to protest no-vote trump? Every other repub in the races loses that vote. And many people that vote specifically AGAINST trump likely vote against other repubs too.
Repubs are spending against it, and Dems are pursuing it... it's a real concern.
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it's easy to do that. But what happens if repubs stay home to protest no-vote trump? Every other repub in the races loses that vote. And many people that vote specifically AGAINST trump likely vote against other repubs too.
Repubs are spending against it, and Dems are pursuing it... it's a real concern.
I understand your point but now that Scalia is dead, this is the least of our problems.
On the plus side Trump seems to be driving a lot of turnout and Democrat turnout doesn't look very good from what I've seen.
We'll have to wait and see. I'm voting for Cruz and I'm debating not voting in the general election if Trump is the guy but I might puss out and vote for him anyway just to smite Hitlery. I'll vote for the other elections though for sure.
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We'll have to wait and see. I'm voting for Cruz and I'm debating not voting in the general election if Trump is the guy but I might puss out and vote for him anyway just to smite Hitlery. I'll vote for the other elections though for sure.
but can you see how a lot of people - who hate both Trump and Hilary - wouldn't bother going to the polls and standing in line for 2 hours in november, just to vote for their party's congressman?
even if only a small % of republican voters skip it because of trump - that means the congressman scraping by with repubs votes will be down a small % as well. I doubt most voters are politically astute as you are... many would just say screw it, and stay home.
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but can you see how a lot of people - who hate both Trump and Hilary - wouldn't bother going to the polls and standing in line for 2 hours in november, just to vote for their party's congressman?
even if only a small % of republican voters skip it because of trump - that means the congressman scraping by with repubs votes will be down a small % as well. I doubt most voters are politically astute as you are... many would just say screw it, and stay home.
In theory yes but I'm not counting on that. Republican turn out has been strong from what I've read. Democrat turn out has not or at least was not early on.
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In theory yes but I'm not counting on that. Republican turn out has been strong from what I've read. Democrat turn out has not or at least was not early on.
Republican turnout is way ahead of the Democrats...way ahead. Dem turnout is down across the board.
Right now you can hate trump all you want but it's now Kasich that is going to hand him the nomination.