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Getbig Main Boards => Gossip & Opinions => Topic started by: Army of One on July 29, 2020, 02:49:04 PM
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I cant say I disagree with him after following AI closely for 20 years.I see it certainly within 10 years.When machines have an iq measured over 1000 in humans terms, what will be the point of human work when the machine can do in a day what takes us a year?And when robots are made that have the dexterity to say plumb a house better than any human, then thats all the physical jobs gone too.I only see one way out of this, Universal basic income for all with massive taxation on the worlds richest.
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I cant say I disagree with him after following AI closely for 20 years.I see it certainly within 10 years.When machines have an iq measured over 1000 in humans terms, what will be the point of human work when the machine can do in a day what takes us a year?And when robots are made that have the dexterity to say plumb a house better than any human, then thats all the physical jobs gone too.I only see one way out of this, Universal basic income for all with massive taxation on the worlds richest.
(http://www.getbig.com/boards/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=667434.0;attach=1262004;image)
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(http://www.getbig.com/boards/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=667434.0;attach=1262004;image)
(https://thumbs.gfycat.com/ApprehensiveDimDrever-max-1mb.gif)
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(https://thumbs.gfycat.com/ApprehensiveDimDrever-max-1mb.gif)
(https://thumbs.gfycat.com/BlandAlarmingBufflehead-small.gif)
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I cant say I disagree with him after following AI closely for 20 years.I see it certainly within 10 years.When machines have an iq measured over 1000 in humans terms, what will be the point of human work when the machine can do in a day what takes us a year?And when robots are made that have the dexterity to say plumb a house better than any human, then thats all the physical jobs gone too.I only see one way out of this, Universal basic income for all with massive taxation on the worlds richest.
Well, since Universal Basic Income is the only way out that you can see then I guess it's settled. ;D
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Yeah not happening. There autonamous cars are barely level 2.
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Well, since Universal Basic Income is the only way out that you can see then I guess it's settled. ;D
;D
Sure I simplified it, but really whats the alternative?Force every company to be government controlled and we all become communist?This WILL happen, and we will be more pathetic to AI than ants are to us.Sure we can merge with AI, but why bother for work purposes?Does anyone actually want to work if they dont have to?
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Can’t fucking wait till a robot can do my job for me
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AI is ripping through the legal sector already.
Speaking with a partner from one of my country's largest legal firms he said their big clients won't pay the big money anymore. Particularly for contracts.
So to cut costs they are rolling out AI to create contracts instead of using lawyers. His wife was a contract lawyer and she said it's done and dusted for her as nobody writes contrqcts from the ground up anymore, it's copy/paste.
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AI is ripping through the legal sector already.
Speaking with a partner from one of my country's largest legal firms he said their big clients won't pay the big money anymore. Particularly for contracts.
So to cut costs they are rolling out AI to create contracts instead of using lawyers. His wife was a contract lawyer and she said it's done and dusted for her as nobody writes contrqcts from the ground up anymore, it's copy/paste.
Finance and legal will be the first to get completely wrecked, along with all the transport jobs Customer service will also disappear FAST.
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AI tech is scary looking into the future. But I don’t think it’s as soon as 5 years away from”taking over”. Also Elon Musk is starting to lose his mind so anything he says right now is suspect IMO.
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AI tech is scary looking into the future. But I don’t think it’s as soon as 5 years away from”taking over”. Also Elon Musk it starting to lose his mind so anything he says right now is suspect IMO.
The pace will only get quicker and quicker, you cant look at the previous 5 years and assume the same rate, its purely software, and the more it learns, the faster it can learn.The breakthrough to the singularity will happen seemingly overnight.
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The pace will only get quicker and quicker, you cant look at the previous 5 years and assume the same rate, its purely software, and the more it learns the faster it can learn.
Yeah I agree it’s exponential as far as progress. Could be soon, but we always tend to be wrong predicting the progress of tech. Where are the flying cars?😀
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Yeah I agree it’s exponential as far as progress. Could be soon, but we always tend to be wrong predicting the progress of tech. Where are the flying cars?😀
Like musk said, flying cars are noisy and dangerous, its isnt a tech problem, its a we dont really want them problem.
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(https://media1.tenor.com/images/288b612b0a1481acc84c822458b056cb/tenor.gif)
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Like musk said, flying cars are noisy and dangerous, its isnt a tech problem, its a we dont really want them problem.
George Jetson would disagree.
There are more example like movies etc. AI can be great for the human race if harnessed correctly. Scary shit though.
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Overtake in what way?
AI is not advanced enough to be self improving in the sense that it would evolve itself yet. Like the Terminator movies.
Much more than 5 years for that kind of development. More like 50+ years.
I will say alot of jobs we have today can be scripted and automated. So work will be fewer. And the rich/ poor ratio will be even worse than today. A rich elite then alot more poor people.
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The pace will only get quicker and quicker, you cant look at the previous 5 years and assume the same rate, its purely software, and the more it learns, the faster it can learn.The breakthrough to the singularity will happen seemingly overnight.
Musk is known for VERY overexcited time lines....
Have you followed any of his other time line predictions? Even he freely admits it.
Universal basic income is in the future. But will take some time, more than ten years certainly... It is hard to predict as the curve you posted is true. But it is also true that there is a lot of work to be done. And obviously some jobs go before others.
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Minorities and white trash morons are done, their shitty jobs are going to be replaced by robots! Can’t wait
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Read the Kurt Vonnegut book, "Player Piano"...
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Strong AI wont happen. Machines already have far more computational power than humans, yet they're still not conscious. There's no Dr Frankenstein solution. You cannot imbue a thing with Being.
Weak AI will drive cars, etc, and everyone will call it AI and mistake sufficiently sophisticated programming for consciousness, but it will never reason forward or develop beyond its parameters.
Btw the AI toaster on Red Drawf was hilarious. Constantly in a state of existential crisis, the poor thing just couldn't resolve why it was here and what it all meant. Every time someone came in the room it was "Hi! You want some toast?"
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Creating real AI is likely impossible because it requires a script performing a trial and error process that theoretically could succeed, but might consume more energy than exists in the universe before doing.
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Creating real AI is likely impossible because it requires a script performing a trial and error process that theoretically could succeed, but might consume more energy than exists in the universe before doing.
Say what?
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I didn't follow that either. You can't program:
1 Be conscious
2 If fail, goto 1
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Can’t fucking wait till a robot can do my job for me
Check out this machine:
(https://thumbs.gfycat.com/BadMessyArieltoucan-size_restricted.gif)
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Strong AI wont happen. Machines already have far more computational power than humans, yet they're still not conscious. There's no Dr Frankenstein solution. You cannot imbue a thing with Being.
Weak AI will drive cars, etc, and everyone will call it AI and mistake sufficiently sophisticated programming for consciousness, but it will never reason forward or develop beyond its parameters.
Btw the AI toaster on Red Drawf was hilarious. Constantly in a state of existential crisis, the poor thing just couldn't resolve why it was here and what it all meant. Every time someone came in the room it was "Hi! You want some toast?"
Computers aren't even close to the brains computational power.
Might be close to the average getbig get though.
Rare has so much nonsense been spoken on a single thread.
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Say what?
Real AI is not possible to create without replicating biological reproduction and evolution. There are two issues here: most organisms really are Freudian in nature and are not just spontaneously thinking for no reason, but more like problem solving things that are related to the prime directives they're built with - usually things like reproduction, shelter, food, etc. For instance, there is enough quantum noise and entropy floating around where a human could record it 24/7 and study it eternally, but they would not because there is no payoff related to their Freudian urges.
A so-called AI, on the other hand, would not have such Freudian prime directives and would get stuck in a hard loop doing things like just staring at random entropy forever. It has no such Freudian prime directives, so it's either going to have no motivation to perform any action at all, or it's going to get hard locked attempting to endlessly analyze every meaningless detail/noise/entropy that exists.
To create AI, you would be forced to give it some type of identical Freudian prime directives just like humans, such as reproducing itself or what have you. The 'AI' would then not get continuously hard locked doing seemingly useless things because the artificial Freudian instincts are it's debugging mechanism. You would likely still need to use magic numbers like: halt analyzing data after whatever numbers of seconds or power expenditure elapsed with no useful returns to operation.
Trying to create AI this way still wouldn't be real AI, you've just created some type of designer, seek and destroy, self reproducing robot that probably consumes all resources in the universe while obliterating anything that gets in it's way - a physical, macro-scale virus in other words. It's debugging routines, or artificial Freudian instincts - whatever you want to call them - also sit above anything it does in hierarchy, making it just a complex looping script or algorithm artificially designed by you.
A real AI would be required to be able to rewrite and create all of it's own debugging and prime directives that govern how it operates on the fly in order to not be considered a script. When you alter the base debugging code that governs how the entire system runs, some alterations would create hard locks because this process simply cannot be done without trial and error, or harnessing the power of entropy in an infinite monkeys with typewriters phenomenon until you get something that doesn't hard lock.
Since you're 100% guaranteed to have hard locks, it's impossible to proceed past this point without the action of the AI duplicating/copying itself each time it attempts to perform said action. The old and new copy would then exist in the same physical plain of existence and be forced to compete with one another for resources, thus you have seemingly replicated biological evolution/natural selection, just in the form of silicon. This form of silicon evolution could pass by much faster than biological evolution, or another possibility is that while the silicon entities can theoretically rewrite their own debugging code and succeed, the chance is so small that every real world attempt fails and only the original, human created one remains which is just a complex script in practice.
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Computers aren't even close to the brains computational power.
Might be close to the average getbig get though.
Rare has so much nonsense been spoken on a single thread.
Multiply a few 6 digit numbers in your head. Instantly recall massive amounts of information. Run cryptographic inquiries in the background all day.
Why, how are you defining computational power?
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It isnt just Musk, Ray Kurzweil, who has an extremely high prediction rate predicts Artificial GENERAL Intelligence
"Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is the hypothetical[1] intelligence of a machine that has the capacity to understand or learn any intellectual task that a human being can"
Kurzweil is seen as the God of Futurism due to his ability to predict future tech.
https://sci-techmaven.io/superposition/tech/ray-kurzweil-predicts-machines-will-reach-human-like-intelligence-by-2029-rbm2y0xcT0aqwUhC7wAHiA
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It isnt just Musk, Ray Kurzweil, who has an extremely high prediction rate predicts Artificial GENERAL Intelligence
"Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is the hypothetical[1] intelligence of a machine that has the capacity to understand or learn any intellectual task that a human being can"
Kurzweil is seen as the God of Futurism due to his ability to predict future tech.
https://sci-techmaven.io/superposition/tech/ray-kurzweil-predicts-machines-will-reach-human-like-intelligence-by-2029-rbm2y0xcT0aqwUhC7wAHiA
army seriously?? Don't read him bro.
Kurzweil is a total joke... He is the king of wishful thinking and delusion, claims were on the cusp of biological immortality.... believe me I'm a biomedical scientist were nowhere fucking near it.
He is not to be taken even remotely seriously.
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army seriously?? Don't read him bro.
Kurzweil is a total joke... He is the king of wishful thinking and delusion, claims were on the cusp of biological immortality.... believe me I'm a biomedical scientist were nowhere fucking near it.
He is not to be taken even remotely seriously.
yes he is a bit of a dreamer
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These types of predictions have been happening for decades. I remember in the 80's that by the year 2000 we'd be living in a Jetson's world. Flying cars, moving sidewalks, robot everything. Not happened yet. One of the biggest if not the biggest limitation of robots taking over is batter power. Our battery technology is absolute SHIT. Until someone can develop some sort of battery that can power a robot without charging, then we'll be okay.
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Multiply a few 6 digit numbers in your head. Instantly recall massive amounts of information. Run cryptographic inquiries in the background all day.
Why, how are you defining computational power?
A good example. Here's a different one.
- A ball is fired in your direction from 60ft away traveling between 60-146mph. It's aimed at area in front of you that is 21ft x 13ft wide. After landing the ball will bounce.
As the ball moves towards you, you must do the following:
- Predict the location of the bounce so that you can predict when the ball will be 2-6 feet off the ground after it bounces.
- Position your body behind that location, slightly to the right (as you face it) with your outstretched arm 24 inches from the location the ball will pass.
- Swing your arm forwards so that a flat surface you are holding makes contact with the ball at a speed and angle for it to pass over a 3.5ft obstacle 15 ft away and land in an area 39ft x 40.5ft beyond the obstacle.
- Make adjustments to the angle and speed calculations according to the position of a person 60ft away that is moving as the ball moves your way.
I couldn't figure this out consciously ever. I could do it though because I can play tennis. Your brain is doing all this subconsciously when you play a game, when you drive, play an instrument - anything that's a skill...
So you can't compare to your conscious computational skills - because your subconscious is doing the work for you. That's where the power is.
There's 100 billion neurons, each can contact 100's or 1000's of others via synapsis. It is the MOST complex computer by far on earth and we have no idea how it really works....
It took 10 years to build SpiNNaker supercomputer built to simulate the way the brain works. It’s ongoing but as of 2018 it had 1,200 connected circuit boards and 1,000,000 core processors. It is able to mimic the function of a mouse brain which is 1000 times smaller than a human brain. With those million processors it is approaching 1% of the scale of a human brain.
So yeah - computers are not even close to the complexity of the brain or the computational power of it.
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I cant say I disagree with him after following AI closely for 20 years.I see it certainly within 10 years.When machines have an iq measured over 1000 in humans terms, what will be the point of human work when the machine can do in a day what takes us a year?And when robots are made that have the dexterity to say plumb a house better than any human, then thats all the physical jobs gone too.I only see one way out of this, Universal basic income for all with massive taxation on the worlds richest.
IQ is a poor measure of your intellect. It is largely pattern matching - a specific set of skills.
I've met high IQ people that were absolutely bloody dolts - no social skills, not empathy, no charm. Take someone with an average IQ and give them better social skills and they'll do much better in life as they simply have different intellectual capabilities. IQ Measures one of them. Also - because of the nature of IQ tests - you could, of course, program a computer to get 100% - but you just coded it to solve patterns and a few other things.
Doesn't mean it could get it's cock sucked by some mysterious blonde it bumped into in a club and convinced to come back for a ride now, does it?
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One thing I've observed over my lifetime is that predictions of the future are rarely correct.
The future will be different than today but unlikely to be as predicted.
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A good example. Here's a different one.
- A ball is fired in your direction from 60ft away traveling between 60-146mph. It's aimed at area in front of you that is 21ft x 13ft wide. After landing the ball will bounce.
As the ball moves towards you, you must do the following:
- Predict the location of the bounce so that you can predict when the ball will be 2-6 feet off the ground after it bounces.
- Position your body behind that location, slightly to the right (as you face it) with your outstretched arm 24 inches from the location the ball will pass.
- Swing your arm forwards so that a flat surface you are holding makes contact with the ball at a speed and angle for it to pass over a 3.5ft obstacle 15 ft away and land in an area 39ft x 40.5ft beyond the obstacle.
- Make adjustments to the angle and speed calculations according to the position of a person 60ft away that is moving as the ball moves your way.
I couldn't figure this out consciously ever. I could do it though because I can play tennis. Your brain is doing all this subconsciously when you play a game, when you drive, play an instrument - anything that's a skill...
So you can't compare to your conscious computational skills - because your subconscious is doing the work for you. That's where the power is.
There's 100 billion neurons, each can contact 100's or 1000's of others via synapsis. It is the MOST complex computer by far on earth and we have no idea how it really works....
It took 10 years to build SpiNNaker supercomputer built to simulate the way the brain works. It’s ongoing but as of 2018 it had 1,200 connected circuit boards and 1,000,000 core processors. It is able to mimic the function of a mouse brain which is 1000 times smaller than a human brain. With those million processors it is approaching 1% of the scale of a human brain.
So yeah - computers are not even close to the complexity of the brain or the computational power of it.
Or this...
(https://media.giphy.com/media/BZLwuTXePDadW/giphy.gif)
Or this...
(https://media.giphy.com/media/3ohA2LIhURKlI2yMPm/giphy.gif)
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Probably the most likely scenario is the amplification of human abilities by implanted computer processors, enabling use of vast amounts of information and speeding up native abilities.
Certainly, jobs will change and become obsolete. WalMart is testing complete replacement of cashiers in stores now.
Higher minimum wage laws will have the opposite effect intended and cause the elimination of these menial jobs. Unskilled workers will have less opportunities.
Vonnegut's book "Player Piano" was mentioned. Published in 1952 it hits on the elimination of low skill jobs by automation and the result.
Today we are seeing also the elimination of high skill jobs by computers.
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Or this...
(https://media.giphy.com/media/BZLwuTXePDadW/giphy.gif)
Or this...
(https://media.giphy.com/media/3ohA2LIhURKlI2yMPm/giphy.gif)
Yup.
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There is no free Will, you are 100% predictable. You do and think what you learned.(+ you're Genetic) You have no Choice. Live is just happening. A Machine\AI dont have to be like a Human.
Does an airplane fly like a bee? No, it is much more advanced. A Bee is 100% Biological Evolution for a very long Time..AI dont have to be like a Human to be superior. (Obviously)
Thinking is just happening and you experience it. Youre Memory is you, things that happened. Ai in the Future will be advanced in almost every aspect and it will be nothing like the Human Brain. There are better ways to do things and Ai will find them.
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AI will eventually decide there's no point to keep humans around anymore.
Will probably keep some for entertainment or put in cruel games to torture them in order to 'understand' their feelings and emotions.
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The pace will only get quicker and quicker, you cant look at the previous 5 years and assume the same rate, its purely software, and the more it learns, the faster it can learn
The next legit AI that is near to us and will make a large impact is warehousing. Whilst they will get to full automation you also need to remember it.needs.to.roll out across sites.around the world. That takes a huge amount of time.
Eg in Australia we have automated mines. The trucks drive themselves..however that is only for a few and the rest remain human operated. The majority.won't be automated because the life of the mine doesn't justify the cost.
It is definitely decades away from making major impacts on the workforce.
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Will AI vote for Trump or Biden?
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Will AI vote for Trump or Biden?
Trump would complain about robot voter fraud, and Biden would be replaced by AI.
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Check out this machine:
(https://thumbs.gfycat.com/BadMessyArieltoucan-size_restricted.gif)
I just looked it up as never seen one over here, the lads still have to lay it in the correct pattern standing on top of the machine so all it’s doing Is eliminating the two lads need to kneel down and gradually shuffle forward whilst laying, It still can only lay as quick as a man can lay
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Any ideas about AI (robots cyber sex) bonking each other .......... :D
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The next legit AI that is near to us and will make a large impact is warehousing. Whilst they will get to full automation you also need to remember it.needs.to.roll out across sites.around the world. That takes a huge amount of time.
Eg in Australia we have automated mines. The trucks drive themselves..however that is only for a few and the rest remain human operated. The majority.won't be automated because the life of the mine doesn't justify the cost.
It is definitely decades away from making major impacts on the workforce.
Im not so sure.For an example of how things can change overnight, look at what Covid19 has done to working in offices, its made everyone realise its pointless for many jobs.When full autonomy happens for veichles the tech will very rapidly be as cheap as your smartphone, at that point cost wont be an issue.Also look at the human genome project, in 97 I think it was pretty much every scientist was predicting it would take 100 years to finish/map.Due to rapid cpu tech advances in the following 6 years by 2003 it was completed.
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I just looked it up as never seen one over here, the lads still have to lay it in the correct pattern standing on top of the machine so all it’s doing Is eliminating the two lads need to kneel down and gradually shuffle forward whilst laying, It still can only lay as quick as a man can lay
Correct, it's just a tool. Some people have a problem understanding that a machine is not AI. ::)
Get out of the conversation if you think a blender is AI.
FFS!
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Im not so sure.For an example of how things can change overnight, look at what Covid19 has done to working in offices, its made everyone realise its pointless for many jobs.When full autonomy happens for veichles the tech will very rapidly be as cheap as your smartphone, at that point cost wont be an issue.Also look at the human genome project, in 97 I think it was pretty much every scientist was predicting it would take 100 years to finish/map.Due to rapid cpu tech advances in the following 6 years by 2003 it was completed.
Very "nice & friendly'' aliens in 'French TV series 'War of the Worlds' , + Canal production 2019 :D
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When life-like android or synthetic sexbots or lifeforms will be created coupled with advanced and adaptive learning AI, this will change everything.
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Computers aren't even close to Getbig brains computational power.
Might be close to the average joe though.
Fixed
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(https://media0.giphy.com/media/6GDLsJ4ZObMre/giphy.gif)
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But more importantly, when will AI and technology be good enough to give us Blade Runner level
sexbots androids?
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But more importantly, when will AI and technology be good enough to give us Blade Runner level sexbots androids?
(https://cdn11.bigcommerce.com/s-y2in5g/images/stencil/1280x1280/products/1098/33869/Peyton_39__44846.1547659324.png?c=2)
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Or this...
(https://media.giphy.com/media/BZLwuTXePDadW/giphy.gif)
Or this...
(https://media.giphy.com/media/3ohA2LIhURKlI2yMPm/giphy.gif)
AI would never blow coverage and get beat deep like that.
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Im not so sure.For an example of how things can change overnight, look at what Covid19 has done to working in offices, its made everyone realise its pointless for many jobs.When full autonomy happens for veichles the tech will very rapidly be as cheap as your smartphone, at that point cost wont be an issue.Also look at the human genome project, in 97 I think it was pretty much every scientist was predicting it would take 100 years to finish/map.Due to rapid cpu tech advances in the following 6 years by 2003 it was completed.
The problem is no one will be employed to buy these products.
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The problem is no one will be employed to buy these products.
Depopulation is clearly on the menu.
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Musk is known for VERY overexcited time lines....
Have you followed any of his other time line predictions? Even he freely admits it.
Universal basic income is in the future. But will take some time, more than ten years certainly... It is hard to predict as the curve you posted is true. But it is also true that there is a lot of work to be done. And obviously some jobs go before others.
I think Universal Basic Income is almost here. The stimulus checks sent out to everyone were a trial run. I agree with others here that in the near future there will be very wealthy elite and everyone else will be poor. All these people begging for socialism are going to get it, and will probably deeply regret it.
If we as a global population would bring down our numbers by birth control and shrink the population by half the future could be a great place with automated work with people able to live a life of leisure but with the population continuing to explode something more drastic will have to be done. WWIII?
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(https://cdn11.bigcommerce.com/s-y2in5g/images/stencil/1280x1280/products/1098/33869/Peyton_39__44846.1547659324.png?c=2)
Good to see we're heading the right direction!
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Universal Basic income won't be a case of sit at home and we'll pay you. It will come with caveats.
Give everyone a certain level of wealth, standard of living and enough time for recreation and people will have less kids and the population naturally shrinks. Targeted UBI in some of the poorer nations could easily lead to a gradual global depopulation.
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Universal Basic income won't be a case of sit at home and we'll pay you. It will come with caveats.
Give everyone a certain level of wealth, standard of living and enough time for recreation and people will have less kids and the population naturally shrinks. Targeted UBI in some of the poorer nations could easily lead to a gradual global depopulation.
But will people choose to have fewer kids? Welfare recipients have tons of kids. More time off means more drinking, drugs and screwing for a lot of people.
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But will people choose to have fewer kids? Welfare recipients have tons of kids. More time off means more drinking, drugs and screwing for a lot of people.
Exactly. Look at Africa. Africa's population is the fastest growing in the world, despite being the poorest. Many people with almost zero income or food but will have 10 kids.
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But will people choose to have fewer kids? Welfare recipients have tons of kids. More time off means more drinking, drugs and screwing for a lot of people.
That's because having more kids equals more government welfare. At least it does in most of Europe.
Exactly. Look at Africa. Africa's population is the fastest growing in the world, despite being the poorest. Many people with almost zero income or food but will have 10 kids.
In the gulf states pre oil the native population were having kids in double digit figures. Post oil wealth and the number kids dropped dramatically. Low single digits.
Same thing happened in most Fist world countries when the standards of living was raised, just not quite as fast.
Give people a taste of living financially comfortably, make raising kids expensive and you have depopulation.
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That's because having more kids equals more government welfare. At least it does in most of Europe.
In the gulf states pre oil the native population were having kids in double digit figures. Post oil wealth and the number kids dropped dramatically. Low single digits.
Same thing happened in most Fist world countries when the standards of living was raised, just not quite as fast.
Give people a taste of living financially comfortably, make raising kids expensive and you have depopulation.
Africa is incapable of that though.
At least unless some colonial or foreign powers implement it, on their own they incapable, firstly the governments will loot everything, secondly they mostly don't have capable people in government positions, thirdly most of the population have very low IQ levels.
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Africa is incapable of that though.
At least unless some colonial or foreign powers implement it, on their own they incapable, firstly the governments will loot everything, secondly they mostly don't have capable people in government positions, thirdly most of the population have very low IQ levels.
That and the corruption are very good points.
It might take Sub-Saharan Africa longer to get there, but when you look at the data you'll see even their birth rates are declining.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=ZG
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That and the corruption are very good points.
It might take Sub-Saharan Africa longer to get there, but when you look at the data you'll see even there birth rates are declining.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=ZG
That is INSANE to me that Africa is showing declining birth rates, but if that means Africans are living higher qualities of life, that's good. Unfortunately, there must be some carrying capacity to the earth. I'm no global warming hysteric or anything [I've actually not really looked into it, so I can't say I have an opinion]. It's just that it would APPEAR to me that things in life are finite. Maybe I'm wrong on that. But as best as I can measure, that is true.