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Getbig Main Boards => Gossip & Opinions => Topic started by: OneMoreRep on July 13, 2022, 06:46:53 AM
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Consumer Price Index (CPI) clocked in at 9.1%.
Let's see the carnage this will bring to the stock and crypto markets. Also, get ready folks as this means the Federal Reserve will have to continue to increase their Federal Reserve Rates and Moody's will likely soon have to announce that we are officially in a recession given that Q1/Q2 GDP were negative.
"1"
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But Joe said we're doing GREAT!!!!
(https://th.bing.com/th/id/R.c6fc7220f71c6ab4692bd7e54faaf03b?rik=X1I4Kx%2fGnFFQgA&riu=http%3a%2f%2ftwiceretired.org%2fwp-content%2fuploads%2f2020%2f08%2fZero-Cents-Biden-1024x606.png&ehk=0FmFr%2fVXOedt0%2bFKP8By299nxN%2bDOxyFL9VcAi4hmwY%3d&risl=&pid=ImgRaw&r=0)
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Bullshit number. Inflation is way higher but the gov won't admit it. Let's do some basic math.
Gas is up 100%, Housing is up 50%, rent is up 70%, food is up over 50%. How the fuck does this average out to 9.1%?
Don't forget the US dollar that used to be 1.30 USD to 1 Euro is now 1-1. So yeah. 9% my ass.
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The wisdom of Biden. Print more money and we will erase poverty
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Bullshit number. Inflation is way higher but the gov won't admit it. Let's do some basic math.
Gas is up 100%, Housing is up 50%, rent is up 70%, food is up over 50%. How the fuck does this average out to 9.1%?
Don't forget the US dollar that used to be 1.30 USD to 1 Euro is now 1-1. So yeah. 9% my ass.
Amen to that...
Home ownership is lower than 2008,
Average household debt is way higher
Middle class is globally f*cked
Wondering when will music stop...
Good thing is Matt C will last longest tthanks to his 1200 kcal doomsday diet.
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Saw a survey where they predict around 5 percent inflation next year in America. That does not change the fact that it is way too high now, and 5 percent is also too high
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This is horrible news.
Thanks Putin!
🙁
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This is horrible news.
Thanks Putin!
🙁
0/10 trolling effort, gimmick.
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Bullshit number. Inflation is way higher but the gov won't admit it. Let's do some basic math.
Gas is up 100%, Housing is up 50%, rent is up 70%, food is up over 50%. How the fuck does this average out to 9.1%?
Don't forget the US dollar that used to be 1.30 USD to 1 Euro is now 1-1. So yeah. 9% my ass.
Your suspicion as to 9.1% being low is not wrong.
Back in the early 1980s, calculated CPI was based on comparisons of a fixed basket of goods and services that was averaged over 2 periods. They called it the cost of goods index. But then, congress decided that they should instead concentrate on the "cost to maintain a certain standard of living". This is what led to our present day CPI reflecting more of a cost of living as an index. As a result of this change, there have been numerous revisions over the last 30-40 years which changes the relative weighing of distinct items in the proverbial basket. These changes and the resultant difference distinct items have in terms of their value/weight is what has led to us underreporting actual inflation (CPI).
It's been a game of manipulation. If you use the same formula employed to calculate inflation as they did in the early 1980s (formula used for the cost of goods index - COGI), you would likely end up with a CPI that is closer to 18-20%.
"1"
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0/10 trolling effort, gimmick.
You don’t think the war in Ukraine is a major factor in inflation around the world?
Please give us your opinion.
I didn’t realize you were an expert on macroeconomics as well.
🙄
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But Joe said we're doing GREAT!!!!
(https://th.bing.com/th/id/R.c6fc7220f71c6ab4692bd7e54faaf03b?rik=X1I4Kx%2fGnFFQgA&riu=http%3a%2f%2ftwiceretired.org%2fwp-content%2fuploads%2f2020%2f08%2fZero-Cents-Biden-1024x606.png&ehk=0FmFr%2fVXOedt0%2bFKP8By299nxN%2bDOxyFL9VcAi4hmwY%3d&risl=&pid=ImgRaw&r=0)
I recall Getbig’s own Straw Man saying it was dumb to ask about inflation.
Biden calls Peter Doocy 'stupid son of a bitch' for inflation question
https://nypost.com/2022/01/24/biden-calls-peter-doocy-stupid-son-of-a-bitch-for-inflation-question/
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You don’t think the war in Ukraine is a major factor in inflation around the world?
Please give us your opinion.
I didn’t realize you were an expert on macroeconomics as well.
🙄
GTFO w your nonsense. Wear your mask and STFU
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GTFO w your nonsense. Wear your mask and STFU
Careful, he'll post a libturd created meme ::) ::)
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Spot on!
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Biden is a great man.
Inflation is good for you like the vax.
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Biden is a great man.
Inflation is good for you like the vax.
I hate Joe Biden.
He’s a better leader than Trump though.
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I hate Joe Biden.
He’s a better leader than Trump though.
More fake BS. The labor rate and amount of people working is still less than before the scamdemic that liberal POS in many states forced lock downs.
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Prices were rising well before the Ukraine war but yeah let’s blame a regional conflict for worldwide inflation.
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You don’t think the war in Ukraine is a major factor in inflation around the world?
Please give us your opinion.
I didn’t realize you were an expert on macroeconomics as well.
🙄
Stop...just stop. Biden is making Carter look like Reagan about now. This was predicted loooong before this war.
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Stop...just stop. Biden is making Carter look like Reagan about now.
I agree.
Biden is an idiot.
But Putin’s war is the number one driver of inflation.
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I hate Joe Biden.
He’s a better leader than Trump though.
It's not a high bar for Joe.
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I hate Joe Biden.
He’s a better leader than Trump though.
FOH!
Under Trump Black women actually overtook Asians in university enrollment and were the fastest growing small business sector.
So Cognitive Dissonance is getting credit for people who went back to work after the pandemic when their companies reopened their doors like restaurants and cinemas.
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I hate Joe Biden.
He’s a better leader than Trump though.
we should have cloned this guy. someone who was actually worthy of our respect. unlike the last two turds. :)
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This world has gone fucking nuts. Now Cuban cigars are jumping up in price anywhere from 400% to 800%. A box of Cohibas I could have bought a couple years ago for $400 will now be about $2500. WTF!!!
This world has gone to pure shit.
While rumors have been circulating around the industry, today it’s official—Cuban cigars are about to get more expensive the world over. According to Cuban cigar distributor Habanos S.A., all of its brands will see an increase in prices in every global region. Cohiba and Trinidad in particular will have the largest jump, as they will now be priced in accordance with the Hong Kong market, which is one of the most expensive in the world. Bigger Cohibas will sell for $100 each, Behikes far more, and boxes will no longer be priced in the hundreds of dollars, but in the thousands.
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Stop...just stop. Biden is making Carter look like Reagan about now. This was predicted loooong before this war.
What’s so detestable about him is that he always passes the buck. It never stops with him.
He’s every stereotype of a sleazy politician wrapped in a shit filled diaper.
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FOH!
Under Trump Black women actually overtook Asians in university enrollment and were the fastest growing small business sector.
So Cognitive Dissonance is getting credit for people who went back to work after the pandemic when their companies reopened their doors like restaurants and cinemas.
oaks just trolling, no human can be that stupid.
Oh, a better leader?? Really?? Shut us down as an energy super-power, crash our economy, hire people based on color, being gay, etc.
(You know, non-biologists, those that wear dresses over their caulks, those that fukk animals, etc). ::)
LOl
Highest inflation due to his decisions. Yup, great leader... Leader of the pant-shitters maybe...
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What’s so detestable about him is that he always passes the buck. It never stops with him.
He’s every stereotype of a sleazy politician wrapped in a shit filled diaper.
a bowel-burrito of peace...
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American Center for Law & Justice
aclj.org
The American Center for Law & Justice is a politically conservative, Christian-based legal organization in the United States. It is headquartered in Washington, D.C., and associated with Regent University School of Law in Virginia Beach, Virginia. Wikipedia
Founded: 1990
Tax deductibility code: 501(c)(3)
Headquarters: Washington, D.C.
Founders: Jay Sekulow, Pat Robertson ::) ::) ::) ::) ::)
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What’s so detestable about him is that he always passes the buck. It never stops with him.
He’s every stereotype of a sleazy politician wrapped in a shit filled diaper.
what happened to the buck stops here.
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what happened to the buck stops here.
::)
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what happened to the buck stops here.
Fuck off already with your TDS. I expect this from some idiot Karen on the upper west side.
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This is what they want. Destroy the world's economy..reset it with a one world government
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This is what they want. Destroy the world's economy..reset it with a one world government
Which is exactly why Biden and fake administration couldn’t give two shits about his 29% approval ratings. They just keep doubling down
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oaks just trolling, no human can be that stupid.
Oh, a better leader?? Really?? Shut us down as an energy super-power, crash our economy, hire people based on color, being gay, etc.
(You know, non-biologists, those that wear dresses over their caulks, those that fukk animals, etc). ::)
LOl
Highest inflation due to his decisions. Yup, great leader... Leader of the pant-shitters maybe...
Have you met LurkerNoMore?
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I thought pants Shitter was gonna lockdown the virus. Why is it still an emergency a year and a half later?
The irony is that the whole thing is a fraud and it never was an emergency.
Biden administration set to renew COVID-19 PHE this week
https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/hospital-management-administration/biden-administration-set-to-renew-covid-19-phe-this-week.html
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This is what they want. Destroy the world's economy..reset it with a one world government
Yeah, because the European Union has worked so well.
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I thought pants Shitter was gonna lockdown the virus. Why is it still an emergency a year and a half later?
The irony is that the whole thing is a fraud and it never was an emergency.
Biden administration set to renew COVID-19 PHE this week
https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/hospital-management-administration/biden-administration-set-to-renew-covid-19-phe-this-week.html
The entire country with the exception of the likes of “OAK” will tell him to fuck off
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The cvnt cant even follow simple instruction...
https://www.instagram.com/reel/Cf9dc-ZpWCG/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link
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Biden is a great man.
Inflation is good for you like the vax.
At least we got rid of the evil orange man who hurt people's feelings on Twitter.
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At least we got rid of the evil orange man who hurt people's feelings on Twitter.
Oh yes.
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Everyone's savings getting wiped out. Getbiggers sleep easy having gold bars in their safes.
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oaks just trolling, no human can be that stupid.
Oh, a better leader?? Really?? Shut us down as an energy super-power, crash our economy, hire people based on color, being gay, etc.
(You know, non-biologists, those that wear dresses over their caulks, those that fukk animals, etc). ::)
LOl
Highest inflation due to his decisions. Yup, great leader... Leader of the pant-shitters maybe...
At least Biden doesn’t think Putin is a “genius”.
🙄🙄🙄
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Everyone's savings getting wiped out. Getbiggers sleep easy having gold bars in their safes.
We own the gold mines.
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At least Biden doesn’t think Putin is a “genius”.
🙄🙄🙄
No, he thinks this guy is... "Smartest guy he knows"!! ::)
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The OAK alter works almost like an AI algorithm to post propaganda that the least intelligent person would believe.
It’s a decent amount of upkeep to run an alter account like that so it is only natural for them to cut corners.
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Fuck off already with your TDS. I expect this from some idiot Karen on the upper west side.
not TDS just giving him his props can't you just wait for his second cumming. ;D ;D ;D ;D
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I thought pants Shitter was gonna lockdown the virus. Why is it still an emergency a year and a half later?
The irony is that the whole thing is a fraud and it never was an emergency.
Biden administration set to renew COVID-19 PHE this week
https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/hospital-management-administration/biden-administration-set-to-renew-covid-19-phe-this-week.html
trump is the one who actually wears depends and shits himself on a regular basis. trump is the pantshitter, you should show some respect to the leader of the free world. your BDS is strong.
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trump is the one who actually wears depends and shits himself on a regular basis. trump is the pantshitter, you should show some respect to the leader of the free world. your BDS is strong.
Seriously seek help.
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Seriously seek help.
you'd probably crawl up his orange ass if you could. not that there's anything wrong with it. ;)
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Pedo is snapping. Lives in his own dream-world.
hodgetwins: Even democrats realize Brandon is a disaster. A recent New York Times poll says over 60% of democrats do not want to see Brandon run for re-election. Everyone knows this except for the President of the United States. Inflation is the worst it’s been in decades and a recession right around the corner. And to add insult to injury this country is in horrible shape due to the fact we are not energy dependent and we no longer know what a woman is. This administration is a clown show 🤡
https://www.instagram.com/reel/Cf9riM1jQm8/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link
Senile dementia patient gets a little nasty, LOL. Then shitz himself... ::)
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FXjrn9OXkAAiyT9?format=jpg&name=large)
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Pedo is snapping. Lives in his own dream-world.
hodgetwins: Even democrats realize Brandon is a disaster. A recent New York Times poll says over 60% of democrats do not want to see Brandon run for re-election. Everyone knows this except for the President of the United States. Inflation is the worst it’s been in decades and a recession right around the corner. And to add insult to injury this country is in horrible shape due to the fact we are not energy dependent and we no longer know what a woman is. This administration is a clown show 🤡
https://www.instagram.com/reel/Cf9riM1jQm8/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link
Senile dementia patient gets a little nasty, LOL. Then shitz himself... ::)
I agree with you we need a third party called the common sense party, run by the people for the people. Let's actually get special interest groups out of government. and regulate the gas and oil monoply. government should serve the people not the other way around.
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If your investments were properly diversified you have only given back at most the previous 12 months market gains.
I posted numerous times to use proper asset allocation. If you did not you made a mistake.
The stockmarket has outperformed inflation consistently over time.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FXjrn9OXkAAiyT9?format=jpg&name=large)
LOL! :D
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.
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You don’t think the war in Ukraine is a major factor in inflation around the world?
Please give us your opinion.
I didn’t realize you were an expert on macroeconomics as well.
🙄
Brutally low effort by the resident dimwit and meme paster. Suck a cock, loser.
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Inflation is no fun. On that we can all agree. If you think it is bad this year and it is, it could be worse, much worse.
In 1946 the rate of inflation in the U.S was 18.1%.
In 1974 it was 12.3%.
In 1979 it was 13.3%.
In 1980 it was 12.5%.
The current rate of inflation is 8.5% according to some sources.
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Inflation is no fun. On that we can all agree. If you think it is bad this year and it is, it could be worse, much worse.
In 1946 the rate of inflation in the U.S was 18.1%.
In 1974 it was 12.3%.
In 1979 it was 13.3%.
In 1980 it was 12.5%.
The current rate of inflation is 8.5% according to some sources.
Prime,
The new inflation rates were published today and it is 9.1%. This is based on the consumer price index.
"1"
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Brutally low effort by the resident dimwit and meme paster. Suck a cock, loser.
As usual you’ve added ZERO to this discussion.
Do you understand what INFLATION is?
🙄
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As usual you’ve added ZERO to this discussion.
Do you understand what INFLATION is?
🙄
Awwww what’s wrong now? Want me to copy and paste something, studddd?
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Prime,
The new inflation rates were published today and it is 9.1%. This is based on the consumer price index.
"1"
You can’t really know the true cost of inflation as the natural trajectory for prices is to go down as producers get more efficient. If prices stay the same in the face of central bank currency devaluation when they otherwise would’ve gone down you’re still poorer as a result of the printing.
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Inflation is no fun. On that we can all agree. If you think it is bad this year and it is, it could be worse, much worse.
In 1946 the rate of inflation in the U.S was 18.1%.
In 1974 it was 12.3%.
In 1979 it was 13.3%.
In 1980 it was 12.5%.
The current rate of inflation is 8.5% according to some sources.
You’re such a hack apologist for this installed asshole and his fake administration. Do you actually think that socialism/Marxism works?
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Pedo is snapping. Lives in his own dream-world.
hodgetwins: Even democrats realize Brandon is a disaster. A recent New York Times poll says over 60% of democrats do not want to see Brandon run for re-election. Everyone knows this except for the President of the United States. Inflation is the worst it’s been in decades and a recession right around the corner. And to add insult to injury this country is in horrible shape due to the fact we are not energy dependent and we no longer know what a woman is. This administration is a clown show 🤡
https://www.instagram.com/reel/Cf9riM1jQm8/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link
Senile dementia patient gets a little nasty, LOL. Then shitz himself... ::)
I heard a talk radio host talking about the Democratic partys relationship with Biden and described it as at this point Biden is the dead hooker that you're handcuffed to.
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Let's go Brandon!
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I heard a talk radio host talking about the Democratic partys relationship with Biden and described it as at this point Biden is the dead hooker that you're handcuffed to.
Shots fired at Hunter!
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FXj_qWgXwAsxkTj?format=jpg&name=medium)
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FXj_qWgXwAsxkTj?format=jpg&name=medium)
;D ;D ;D
Less pay is better for the workers. This is great.
War is peace.
Freedom is slavery.
Ignorance is strength.
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;D ;D ;D
Less pay is better for the workers. This is great.
War is peace.
Freedom is slavery.
Ignorance is strength.
Anything to push the liberal agenda.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FXj_qWgXwAsxkTj?format=jpg&name=medium)
That’s some brilliant stuff. Very OAKesque!
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Real inflation is a lot higher than 9.1%.
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Prime,
The new inflation rates were published today and it is 9.1%. This is based on the consumer price index.
"1"
Thanks for the update. These numbers change... rather quickly these days. I didn't think the 8.5% was absolute. What I found interesting is that it has been so much higher several times in the past.
Inflation is a hard pill to swallow for most people. I am no exception, being on a fixed income, most of which comes from Oregon PERS. My annuity has a 'whopping' 3% COL increase annually. This obviously does not keep up with inflation.
The organization I chair, was planning on submitting a bill to the legislature to get a onetime COL increase of 5%. Looks like we should rethink the figure. 5% made sense when we first started discussing it earlier this year.
If I live long enough, I'll end up in the poorhouse. :(
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What I found interesting is that it has been so much higher several times in the past.
Does that make it ok? Acceptable because it's been higher before?
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Prices were rising well before the Ukraine war but yeah let’s blame a regional conflict for worldwide inflation.
Yeah, in 2021 inflation increased by 400% (in quintupled) going from 1.4% to 7%.
The ~30% increase this year (about 2 percentage points) is only partly attributable to Putin's war.
This is the Biden-Harris economy.
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You’re such a hack apologist for this installed asshole and his fake administration. Do you actually think that socialism/Marxism works?
I wasn't apologizing.
When did I say either Socialism or Marxism works? Hmm, don't remember that.
(This is my being civil reply, the other one was two words and vulgar).
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I wasn't apologizing.
When did I say either Socialism or Marxism works? Hmm, don't remember that.
(This is my being civil reply, the other one was two words and vulgar).
Biden/Harris ???
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FXj_qWgXwAsxkTj?format=jpg&name=medium)
Reminiscent of this:
(https://i.postimg.cc/fbKcZP4K/FW8c-Jer-WAddddd-AMGNtq.jpg)
(https://i.postimg.cc/rsvWQXW8/FW8rrrrrrc-Jes-WYAAg-F3-S.jpg)
(https://i.postimg.cc/MzBYpPqt/FXBUx-KYXo-AEmyyyyyy7-Yb.jpg)
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Biden/Harris ???
You got it!
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If your investments were properly diversified you have only given back at most the previous 12 months market gains.
I posted numerous times to use proper asset allocation. If you did not you made a mistake.
The stockmarket has outperformed inflation consistently over time.
Iron where did you post this info?
And how does that help with food and gas prices?
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I agree.
I am an idiot.
FIXED
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I wasn't apologizing.
When did I say either Socialism or Marxism works? Hmm, don't remember that.
(This is my being civil reply, the other one was two words and vulgar).
You defend Biden at every turn just like now. If you defend it you support it.
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FIXED
Gotta LOVE the Mods on this forum.
::)
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You defend Biden at every turn just like now. If you defend it you support it.
So let me see if I have this right. You think my posting a list of years when inflation has been as high or higher in the U.S. than it is currently defends Biden? How's that?
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So let me see if I have this right. You think my posting a list of years when inflation has been as high or higher in the U.S. than it is currently defends Biden? How's that?
No…this goes back as far when Biden was campaigning right up to now.
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Consumer Price Index (CPI) clocked in at 9.1%.
Let's see the carnage this will bring to the stock and crypto markets. Also, get ready folks as this means the Federal Reserve will have to continue to increase their Federal Reserve Rates and Moody's will likely soon have to announce that we are officially in a recession given that Q1/Q2 GDP were negative.
"1"
I wonder if Biden’s tweet is a signal for a CPI weight change?
I had Q2 recession then Q4 fiscal stimmy and 2023-24 balls to the wall stimmy. I thought CPI would have come down in Q3 and a sell off would be done already. Arguably the markets are already at a 25%-30% draw down which is pandemic level.
yet we have CPI still going up, rates going up but nothing is breaking. I’m starting to think time is running out and maybe they revise the CPI formula and just say ‘fuck it’ and start fiscal over the top while leaving rates high. That at least saves the property market while keeping it less hot.
Given the Fed should be pivoting rather than hiking it’s like a full YOLO into the Death Star at this point. .
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If your investments were properly diversified you have only given back at most the previous 12 months market gains.
I posted numerous times to use proper asset allocation. If you did not you made a mistake.
The stockmarket has outperformed inflation consistently over time.
Your advisement regarding diversified investments is great for someone who has the funds and ability gamble on the stock market. Unfortunately, not everyone has the assets it takes to make a noticeable difference. Those of us whose income is from a PERS annuity have no say over how our money is invested, even those of us who left money in a variable account when they retired.
My major investment is in real estate, and I live in it. Otherwise, I have a couple of TSAs, which I am required by the Feds to drawdown each year.
Last time I checked this pile was worth $780,000 which may seem like a lot to some folks... well, not Getbiggers, all of whom live in multimillion dollar McMansions. LOL! Anyway, I need to live somewhere, so it might as well be here where my expenses are nothing as compared to rents in this neck of the woods. Plus I am comfortable here and life’s short, specially for folks my age.
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I wonder if Biden’s tweet is a signal for a CPI weight change?
I had Q2 recession then Q4 fiscal stimmy and 2023-24 balls to the wall stimmy. I thought CPI would have come down in Q3 and a sell off would be done already. Arguably the markets are already at a 25%-30% draw down which is pandemic level.
yet we have CPI still going up, rates going up but nothing is breaking. I’m starting to think time is running out and maybe they revise the CPI formula and just say ‘fuck it’ and start fiscal over the top while leaving rates high. That at least saves the property market while keeping it less hot.
Given the Fed should be pivoting rather than hiking it’s like a full YOLO into the Death Star at this point. .
It doesn't make sense.
We have CPI continuously increasing (inflation), we have the FED increasing rates and we have clear technical signs of recession (-Q1/Q2), yet nothing is taking a severe hit. Yes, the market has been floating in red, but nothing truly crazy enough to represent what's obviously right in front of us.
Part of me wonders whether it has to do with the false unemployment rates or whether institutional traders are betting that somehow a miracle will happen at the 11th hour. I just don't see it.
I've been bracing for a massive hit, but no clear sign of that massive iceberg that will sink the titanic. Maybe now once the FED is forced to go up in rates once more, maybe then the market will start to show true signs of tear, but for now, the markets are acting strange. It's almost as if they are being artificially kept on life support.
"1"
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It doesn't make sense.
We have CPI continuously increasing (inflation), we have the FED increasing rates and we have clear technical signs of recession (-Q1/Q2), yet nothing is taking a severe hit. Yes, the market has been floating in red, but nothing truly crazy enough to represent what's obviously right in front of us.
Part of me wonders whether it has to do with the false unemployment rates or whether institutional traders are betting that somehow a miracle will happen at the 11th hour. I just don't see it.
I've been bracing for a massive hit, but no clear sign of that massive iceberg that will sink the titanic. Maybe now once the FED is forced to go up in rates once more, maybe then the market will start to show true signs of tear, but for now, the markets are acting strange. It's almost as if they are being artificially kept on life support.
"1"
Look at the tsunami approaching the housing market.
Month to month permits/starts versus home sales. The large home builders typically continue to build at least 6-8 months into the beginning of a housing crash as they wind down their crews. This causes an inventory glut, then the cost cutting begins. Look at the number of sale cancellations this past month, going by memory it might have been 60,000 nationwide.
It’s there, it’s coming, but it is also a tremendous opportunity to make money if you play it right.
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Look at the tsunami approaching the housing market.
Month to month permits/starts versus home sales. The large home builders typically continue to build at least 6-8 months into the beginning of a housing crash as they wind down their crews. This causes an inventory glut, then the cost cutting begins. Look at the number of sale cancellations this past month, going by memory it might have been 600,000 nationwide.
It’s there, it’s coming, but it is also a tremendous opportunity to make money if you play it right.
I mean, it makes sense that the real estate market is bound to go bust. With just the FED increasing rates (as they must) to reel in inflation, things are bound to get worse. Below is a sample of present day mortgage rates and today's CPI will definitely push the FED to increase rates. Some are betting that the FED will increases FED rates by 1%. That's steep, as it would be hard as fuck for many people to afford a mortgage, standard loan or even margin for stocks. It's going to get hard from a simple home loan perspective, let alone the effects of inflation on supply costs for builders.
(https://i.postimg.cc/kgksBJHh/Rates.jpg)
"1"
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It doesn't make sense.
We have CPI continuously increasing (inflation), we have the FED increasing rates and we have clear technical signs of recession (-Q1/Q2), yet nothing is taking a severe hit. Yes, the market has been floating in red, but nothing truly crazy enough to represent what's obviously right in front of us.
Part of me wonders whether it has to do with the false unemployment rates or whether institutional traders are betting that somehow a miracle will happen at the 11th hour. I just don't see it.
I've been bracing for a massive hit, but no clear sign of that massive iceberg that will sink the titanic. Maybe now once the FED is forced to go up in rates once more, maybe then the market will start to show true signs of tear, but for now, the markets are acting strange. It's almost as if they are being artificially kept on life support.
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Well actually does make sense but it’s more that it wasn’t supposed to look like this.
There are 2 major drivers for this. The first is the largest monetary printing in our lifetime. The second is the huge reduction of labour participation rate as boomers retire and continue to retire.
The money printing was essentially shoving 6yrs of cash into the economy in 6 months. It’s now 2yrs later and we are still seeing price spikes as the money works it’s way through. That makes sense.
The unemployment rate is full employment. It’s real. Wages are ripping up and people are still walking from job to job when they feel like it. We are 99% in recession (official figure to be posted by the Fed) and Even with all the rate rises and recession jobs grew in June lol. Now THAT we definitely wouldn’t expect to see yet we did.
Perhaps it’s simply nothing cracks and we just go again? Or maybe it’s a re-test of the bottom and we go again, we don’t set lower lows. I just look at the inbound food issues in Q4 and along with elections the stimmy is highly probably to begin in the coming months. This doesn’t leave much time for a major market sell off.
I am acting on a 5yr inflationary cycle therefore I assume we must go again and keep the gas on. I don’t think property has any sort of collapse, I think it has a mild cool off and then goes again catching the ‘crash’ people out.
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One thing to consider, CPI is highly massaged it's meant to keep the printed inflation number lower than it actually is. Remember that their traditional definition of inflation is the increase in money supply.
Another thing to consider is that the cap on how high rates can be raised is quickly getting reached. Once you get to about 7 or 8%, the government itself will face a borrowing crisis. Interest payments on debt will balloon even further and soon we will be borrowing to cover paying interest
That's one it ends
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Q: Iron where did you post this info?
Several posts in this thread: http://www.getbig.com/boards/index.php?topic=612594.350
July 13, 2021 post #369:
"What goes up must come down.
Intelligently allocate your investment portfolio NOW!"
Q: And how does that help with food and gas prices?
If you have built wealth through intelligent and very simple investment basics then you can comfortably survive bad times.
>
''The Ant and the Grasshopper'' fable, or the ant vs. grasshopper fable, is attributed to the ancient Greek fabulist Aesop.
''The Ant and the Grasshopper'' takes place on a winter day when a group of ants is drying out some corn, which had gotten damp during the recent rain. A grasshopper comes up to the ants and asks them to spare her a few grains because she is starving. Although it was against the ants' principles to stop working, they pause for a moment to talk to the grasshopper. They ask her what she was doing all last summer, and why she did not take the time to collect a store of food to last through the winter. The grasshopper replies that she was too busy singing all summer to store food. The ants reply to her that if she spent the summer singing, she can't do better than to spend the winter dancing. The ants laugh, then return to work, giving the grasshopper nothing.
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FIXED
Yes - he is!
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One thing to consider, CPI is highly massaged it's meant to keep the printed inflation number lower than it actually is. Remember that their traditional definition of inflation is the increase in money supply.
Another thing to consider is that the cap on how high rates can be raised is quickly getting reached. Once you get to about 7 or 8%, the government itself will face a borrowing crisis. Interest payments on debt will balloon even further and soon we will be borrowing to cover paying interest
That's one it ends
People argue over CPI all the time yet it’s a genuine metric of measurement. Case in point, back at 2% people argued it was shit and now in 2022 every person is watching for the monthly number…… people recognise the fact it keeps going up means shit gets worse, not that prices went up it’s 9.1%.
Forget whether the number is right, it’s an indication of inflation trend. We were at 2% and now at 9.1%. It’s fucking bad.
The guide for rate ceiling is if CPI doesn’t decline and unemployment doesn’t increase, rates can go up. It’s pretty amazing the US can cope with the rate rises you have had. Here on prison island we are at 1.35% and people are miserable. But us Ozzie’s load up on huge home loans so any rate rise feels like a sledgehammer.
The other part to this is the Fed plans to hold rates high through 2023-24. People assume like in history the Fed will reduce rates and pivot Jan 2023 but what if they don’t? What if rates go up now, nothing breaks and the govt fire up fiscal stimmy over the top and have inflation run hot 2023-2024? Maybe we get a 1% rate rise, a small sell off to S&P 3,550 or so and that’s it?
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Your advisement regarding diversified investments is great for someone who has the funds and ability gamble on the stock market. Unfortunately, not everyone has the assets it takes to make a noticeable difference. Those of us whose income is from a PERS annuity have no say over how our money is invested, even those of us who left money in a variable account when they retired.
My major investment is in real estate, and I live in it. Otherwise, I have a couple of TSAs, which I am required by the Feds to drawdown each year.
Last time I checked this pile was worth $780,000 which may seem like a lot to some folks... well, not Getbiggers, all of whom live in multimillion dollar McMansions. LOL! Anyway, I need to live somewhere, so it might as well be here where my expenses are nothing as compared to rents in this neck of the woods. Plus I am comfortable here and life’s short, specially for folks my age.
Investing long term in low cost, broad index funds is far from gambling. It's a very intelligent way to invest.
Anyone with any type and size income can do it. It's not about assets and income. It's about how much time you are in the market, how much you spend, how much you save, how much you invest and how you invest it.
That is what IroNat advised, and now you are twisting it and calling it something that it's not because you don't understand it and don't care to educate yourself in very simple investing basics.
You have zero investment in real estate. Your home that you live in is not a financial investment. It's an expense, unless you are renting out parts of it and getting some cash flow out of it. Like you said, you need to live somewhere. So it's not like you can sell your home to spend on food and health care.
Your PERVS annuity/pension and social security should provide enough income for the rest of your life as long as your spending stays under control.
It is possible for your pension to go bankrupt, and for social security and Medicare benefits to be cut, while inflation continues to increase out of control. However, because of your age and how little time you have left to live, you should be fine.
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Well actually does make sense but it’s more that it wasn’t supposed to look like this.
There are 2 major drivers for this. The first is the largest monetary printing in our lifetime. The second is the huge reduction of labour participation rate as boomers retire and continue to retire.
The money printing was essentially shoving 6yrs of cash into the economy in 6 months. It’s now 2yrs later and we are still seeing price spikes as the money works it’s way through. That makes sense.
The money printing/debt monetization is just disgusting. Over the last two years, the US Federal Reserve has printed 80% of all US dollars in existence. That's just unheard of and truly a very sophisticated parlor trick meant to keep us from falling from recession, to stagflation and/or possibly a harsh depression. Granted, they will lean on the money printing coupled with lowering rates to 0% as the only 2 mechanisms the FED truly had to save a flailing economy during the inception of COVID that was followed by a 1-1.5yr economic winter. That theory seems more likely by design at this point (at least in my mind).
The unemployment rate is full employment. It’s real. Wages are ripping up and people are still walking from job to job when they feel like it. We are 99% in recession (official figure to be posted by the Fed) and Even with all the rate rises and recession jobs grew in June lol. Now THAT we definitely wouldn’t expect to see yet we did.
I read the most recent jobs report and, I have to say, I'm not buying it. It looks more as if the average American is now holding up 2 jobs at a time in order to stay above water, which is artificially making it seem as if our unemployment rate is going down. When in reality, the percentage of Americans entering the labor force hasn't really gone up, that percentage has remained stagnant. I think that sooner or later, we will see the real unemployment numbers rear their ugly heads and that's when stagflation will hit with a vengeance.
Perhaps it’s simply nothing cracks and we just go again? Or maybe it’s a re-test of the bottom and we go again, we don’t set lower lows. I just look at the inbound food issues in Q4 and along with elections the stimmy is highly probably to begin in the coming months. This doesn’t leave much time for a major market sell off.
I am acting on a 5yr inflationary cycle therefore I assume we must go again and keep the gas on. I don’t think property has any sort of collapse, I think it has a mild cool off and then goes again catching the ‘crash’ people out.
I think Q4 will be very interesting to see unfold. If I had to bet, I'd say it will be disastrous.
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Just when Democrats seemed closer to reviving parts of President Joe Biden's stalled domestic agenda, Sen. Joe Manchin pumped the brakes Wednesday.
The West Virginia Democrat – whose vote is critical for a bill the White House is waiting on – issued a blistering statement on soaring inflation, casting doubt about how far he's willing to go in a spending package. Without Manchin, the Biden administration's plans to address climate change, overhaul taxes and lower prescription drug prices hang in the balance.
What Manchin said
Manchin said it's time to get "unnecessary spending under control," calling inflation a "clear and present danger to our economy."
"No matter what spending aspirations some in Congress may have, it is clear to anyone who visits a grocery store or a gas station that we cannot add any more fuel to this inflation fire," Manchin said.
Manchin said he’s going to make sure he scrubs any item that could be considered inflationary: “We can't afford mistakes in the highest inflation we've seen in 40 years."
https://www.yahoo.com/news/sen-joe-manchin-cools-spending-193733976.html
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Pant-Shitters got this just fine, he tells us we are doing great and how dare us question him!! ::) ::)
(https://images3.teeshirtpalace.com/images/productImages/bzc8514235-biden-zero-cents-stamp-0-president-joe--black-ybs-garment.jpg?width=767)
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Pant-Shitters got this just fine, he tells us we are doing great and how dare us question him!! ::) ::)
(https://images3.teeshirtpalace.com/images/productImages/bzc8514235-biden-zero-cents-stamp-0-president-joe--black-ybs-garment.jpg?width=767)
That's a great shirt.
Would totally wear a short sleeve version of that.
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That's a great shirt.
Would totally wear a short sleeve version of that.
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That shirt would cause many meltdowns on the upper Westside of Manhattan and Williamsburg Brooklyn.😂😂😂
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That shirt would cause many meltdowns on the upper Westside of Manhattan and Williamsburg Brooklyn.😂😂😂
I think I am surrounded by the 30% in NYC who still approve of this idiot and his cabal of freaks.
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I think I am surrounded by the 30% in NYC who still approve of this idiot and his cabal of freaks.
then you should get this shirt and also one of these
;D ;D ;D ;D
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That shirt would cause many meltdowns on the upper Westside of Manhattan and Williamsburg Brooklyn.😂😂😂
By upper west side, how upper are we talking? West End territory from 72nd to 96st BTW Broadway and Riverside (i.e. super liberal and well off white brethren with sprinkled in affluent Asian and Indian subtypes) OR UPPER MANHATTAN which becomes Dominican'ville mixed in with scattered showers of hippie whites that attend Columbia University and City College?
Shit changes by minor gradients throughout Manhattan. I sometimes go up UP to Washington Heights, as I have a cousin that attends Yeshiva University, but that's an isolated little territory and Jews get passed (are allowed) through the Dominican and Puerto Rican infantry that guard those parts.
Williamsburg is filled with hippies that go showerless as a sport.
The hippies would hate you for wearing that shirt, whereas the Hispanics and blacks wouldn't give a shit.
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Do I need a math degree?
The average monthly rent for a Manhattan apartment surpassed $5,000 for the first time — and brokers say demand and prices are headed even higher into the fall.
The average apartment rent in June was $5,058, the highest on record, according to a report from Miller Samuel and Douglas Elliman. Average rental prices were up 29% over last year, while median rent was up by 25% to $4,050 a month.
Aside from pricing out many renters, the increases could have knock-on effects amid broader inflation pressures. Rents are a key component of the government’s consumer price index, which increased 9.1% from a year ago in June, and New York is the nation’s largest rental market.
How is it that everything is up 30-50% yet inflation is 9.1%? WTF am I missing?
But wait, they are saying that inflation is up 9.1% from last June but not overall post covid. So in reality it is probably double or triple that
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Bullshit number. Inflation is way higher but the gov won't admit it. Let's do some basic math.
Gas is up 100%, Housing is up 50%, rent is up 70%, food is up over 50%. How the fuck does this average out to 9.1%?
Don't forget the US dollar that used to be 1.30 USD to 1 Euro is now 1-1. So yeah. 9% my ass.
We have a bingo.
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Do I need a math degree?
The average monthly rent for a Manhattan apartment surpassed $5,000 for the first time — and brokers say
No, but you need a Biology degree to say whether these brokers are women.
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Do I need a math degree?
The average monthly rent for a Manhattan apartment surpassed $5,000 for the first time — and brokers say demand and prices are headed even higher into the fall.
The average apartment rent in June was $5,058, the highest on record, according to a report from Miller Samuel and Douglas Elliman. Average rental prices were up 29% over last year, while median rent was up by 25% to $4,050 a month.
Aside from pricing out many renters, the increases could have knock-on effects amid broader inflation pressures. Rents are a key component of the government’s consumer price index, which increased 9.1% from a year ago in June, and New York is the nation’s largest rental market.
How is it that everything is up 30-50% yet inflation is 9.1%? WTF am I missing?
But wait, they are saying that inflation is up 9.1% from last June but not overall post covid. So in reality it is probably double or triple that
You're not wrong to suspect that the inflation rate of 9.1% is likely artificially lowered.
Two things contribute to this, the new formula we use to calculate CPI as compared to the 1980's make the CPI calculation severely undercalculated. Many believe this was done purposely to keep the public from losing their shit. If I were to use the old formula to calculate CPI, the real rate would actually be around 18-20%.
In terms of how they calculate average rents into the CPI, they take an average that's sampled over a 6 month period. Whether or not they have calculated the last 6 months (Jan-Jun) and included it into the current CPI, I am not sure. Even the sample they use to calculate average rents into the CPI is outdated. They sample about 50,000 shelter/rental residences. Out of 330 Million Americans, that is a very small sample number.
Anywho, all fingers point towards us running into a steaming pile of shit sooner or later.
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By upper west side, how upper are we talking? West End territory from 72nd to 96st BTW Broadway and Riverside (i.e. super liberal and well off white brethren with sprinkled in affluent Asian and Indian subtypes) OR UPPER MANHATTAN which becomes Dominican'ville mixed in with scattered showers of hippie whites that attend Columbia University and City College?
Shit changes by minor gradients throughout Manhattan. I sometimes go up UP to Washington Heights, as I have a cousin that attends Yeshiva University, but that's an isolated little territory and Jews get passed (are allowed) through the Dominican and Puerto Rican infantry that guard those parts.
Williamsburg is filled with hippies that go showerless as a sport.
The hippies would hate you for wearing that shirt, whereas the Hispanics and blacks wouldn't give a shit.
"1"
We’re talking about white liberals who can dish it out but can’t take it. Hispanics wouldn’t give a shit one way or the other.
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The money printing/debt monetization is just disgusting. Over the last two years, the US Federal Reserve has printed 80% of all US dollars in existence. That's just unheard of and truly a very sophisticated parlor trick meant to keep us from falling from recession, to stagflation and/or possibly a harsh depression. Granted, they will lean on the money printing coupled with lowering rates to 0% as the only 2 mechanisms the FED truly had to save a flailing economy during the inception of COVID that was followed by a 1-1.5yr economic winter. That theory seems more likely by design at this point (at least in my mind).
I read the most recent jobs report and, I have to say, I'm not buying it. It looks more as if the average American is now holding up 2 jobs at a time in order to stay above water, which is artificially making it seem as if our unemployment rate is going down. When in reality, the percentage of Americans entering the labor force hasn't really gone up, that percentage has remained stagnant. I think that sooner or later, we will see the real unemployment numbers rear their ugly heads and that's when stagflation will hit with a vengeance.
I think Q4 will be very interesting to see unfold. If I had to bet, I'd say it will be disastrous.
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I think a challenge for us average people is everything the central banks do or govt do is perceived as wrong and nobody knows what they are doing. Look over the history and everything the Fed ever did was apparently wrong….. then look at the wealth gap….. Politicians enter govt on 100k/yr and retire with 80M in the bank, if they don’t know what they are doing it’s a little ironic it just happens to always fall in their favour.
The job data is real. Chuck in 6yrs worth of money printing, add more boomers retiring, add 6yrs of demand, add a pandemic, add work from home and you can understand we have a plethora of things all pushing towards huge inflationary pressure. The job market is crazy strong here despite recession fears, huge wage inflation pressure.
Look over money supply history and we see multiple 5yr cycles of monetisation of debt. US money supply was 21.5T end of 2021 and in June it’s 21.7T so despite all this sell off and crash talk the money supply is not declining.
The other argument with rates to go up and stay up is the DXY is wrecking a number of countries. Right when the Fed should reduce rates they are looking to go 1% this month….. this is going to annihilate a number of currencies as people flood to the USD. Perhaps The US instead of dropping rates does stimmy over the top to keep that currency pressure going.
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And here you have it…..
ECB to introduce the Transmission Protection Mechanism.
Rates go up and stimmy is going to go in over the top.
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Right when the Fed should reduce rates they are looking to go 1% this month….. this is going to annihilate a number of currencies as people flood to the USD. Perhaps The US instead of dropping rates does stimmy over the top to keep that currency pressure going.
reduce rates to cause even MORE inflation?
I don't understand why the move to the USD?
Inflation of the USD via money printing and stimulous theoretically should WEAKEN the dollar
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reduce rates to cause even MORE inflation?
I don't understand why the move to the USD?
Inflation of the USD via money printing and stimulous theoretically should WEAKEN the dollar
This is the real problem and they all know it:
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Another good one:
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reduce rates to cause even MORE inflation?
I don't understand why the move to the USD?
Inflation of the USD via money printing and stimulous theoretically should WEAKEN the dollar
This is the catch 22 for today’s world where we have jobs and demand going awesome but inflation going bananas. The Fed raises rates using unemployment as a guide but we haven’t seen it crack yet they are just putting huge pressure on homeowners and debt holders.
Keep in mind this is the fastest hike of rates in history. We were living on 0.25% and it’s going to 3.5% inside 1yr. In the past people had interest rates double, today it’s 10x+.The risk now becomes collapse.
Re the move to USD is inflation broke a few countries so it’s a flight to safety and now rising rates attracts Buyers of USD aswell. You have an inflow from other countries wrecked by inflation as they want to hold something stable to protect purchasing power. Just when the US should back off it looks like they will do their largest increase yet of 1% and kick these countries in the guts one last time and attract even more buyers of USD for interest..
It’s economic warefare. Everything is extreme which is not normal behaviour.
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Not so fast on the jobs. It’s a lagging indicator. First comes the slowdown of hiring then the layoffs:
Google says it will slow hiring through 2023 in memo to employees
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/12/google-says-it-will-slow-hiring-through-2023-in-memo-to-employees.html
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I mean, it makes sense that the real estate market is bound to go bust. With just the FED increasing rates (as they must) to reel in inflation, things are bound to get worse. Below is a sample of present day mortgage rates and today's CPI will definitely push the FED to increase rates. Some are betting that the FED will increases FED rates by 1%. That's steep, as it would be hard as fuck for many people to afford a mortgage, standard loan or even margin for stocks. It's going to get hard from a simple home loan perspective, let alone the effects of inflation on supply costs for builders.
(https://i.postimg.cc/kgksBJHh/Rates.jpg)
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It's hard to believe mortgage rates were as low as they were last fall. I refinanced my mortgage in October at 2.25%. What are they now... something like 5.5%? What is crazy is how much the value of my home has increased over the past year. I am beginning to see price reductions on homes for sale so the market must have slowed down. Last December the house next door to me sold for $640K during the first open house which was a day after the sign went up. -Just checked and Zillow has dropped the value on my house $15K in the last month.
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its not about the economy is about how hard dems can crush the economy to get unemployment , social programs and votes
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Do I need a math degree?
The average monthly rent for a Manhattan apartment surpassed $5,000 for the first time — and brokers say demand and prices are headed even higher into the fall.
The average apartment rent in June was $5,058, the highest on record, according to a report from Miller Samuel and Douglas Elliman. Average rental prices were up 29% over last year, while median rent was up by 25% to $4,050 a month.
Aside from pricing out many renters, the increases could have knock-on effects amid broader inflation pressures. Rents are a key component of the government’s consumer price index, which increased 9.1% from a year ago in June, and New York is the nation’s largest rental market.
How is it that everything is up 30-50% yet inflation is 9.1%? WTF am I missing?
But wait, they are saying that inflation is up 9.1% from last June but not overall post covid. So in reality it is probably double or triple that
Are utility bills included in the rent in Manhattan? If heating, hot water and power costs etc are factored into the rent then this would somewhat explain the increases as those costs will get passed on from landlord to renter.
Yes I have a Russell group Maths degree.
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Are utility bills included in the rent in Manhattan? If heating, hot water and power costs etc are factored into the rent then this would somewhat explain the increases as those costs will get passed on from landlord to renter.
Yes I have a Russell group Maths degree.
Typically, no. You pay Con-Edison for electricity and gas separate from rent. Water is included in rent.
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Are utility bills included in the rent in Manhattan? If heating, hot water and power costs etc are factored into the rent then this would somewhat explain the increases as those costs will get passed on from landlord to renter.
Yes I have a Russell group Maths degree.
Something has changed on Zillow and I can't see as many old sales prices on homes any more.
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Something has changed on Zillow and I can't see as many old sales prices on homes any more.
Same thing happened recently on one of the equivalent UK sites (zoopla)
Strange
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Bullshit number. Inflation is way higher but the gov won't admit it. Let's do some basic math.
Gas is up 100%, Housing is up 50%, rent is up 70%, food is up over 50%. How the fuck does this average out to 9.1%?
Don't forget the US dollar that used to be 1.30 USD to 1 Euro is now 1-1. So yeah. 9% my ass.
Not in LurkerNoMore's neighborhood. He's never seen these problems where he lives. He's totally unaware. Hasn't seen it at all.
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Huh???
::) ::) ::) ::) ::) ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
https://www.instagram.com/reel/CgILVMhD-ij/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link
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It is only a matter of time until the media starts pushing stories about how this inflation is actually good for us.
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There’s already runaway inflation in some good sized countries. China’s can’t be counted on for growth anymore.
The money printing game is over
“Voluntary abandonment” is the only option:
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Go to a Dollar Tree store. Everything used to be a dollar. They did a markup for all items. Everything is now $1.25. That’s 25% inflation for junk items.
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Go to a Dollar Tree store. Everything used to be a dollar. They did a markup for all items. Everything is now $1.25. That’s 25% inflation for junk items.
(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/DAS7ypYJWKE/maxresdefault.jpg)
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It is only a matter of time until the media starts pushing stories about how this inflation is actually good for us.
It is.
It devalues debt.
I bought a new Ute in Feb 2020. I can sell it for what I paid for it today after using it for 2.5yrs.
I bought land and built a high spec large home. I used 90% LVR which is now 45% without me doing anything.
The important part is you need to do as much as you can at the start of the inflationary cycle, not the end.
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It is.
It devalues debt.
I bought a new Ute in Feb 2020. I can sell it for what I paid for it today after using it for 2.5yrs.
I bought land and built a high spec large home. I used 90% LVR which is now 45% without me doing anything.
The important part is you need to do as much as you can at the start of the inflationary cycle, not the end.
But the money you get is worth less.
That said, you’re right that inflation or what it really is, counterfeiting, works best for those who get the newly created money first, the financial sector, before prices start to rise.
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If shit was up just 9% it wouldn’t be that bad. Everything is up wayyyy more.
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Real Estate self-adjusts. When interest rates were low a few months ago, folks were buying properties like crazy which drove the prices up considerably. With the increase in interest rates, I'm seeing price reductions on properties not selling quickly. According to Zillow, my house lost about $18,400 dollars or 2.3% in value in the past 30 days… not that I was planning to sell anytime soon.
The previous housing crash was a killer for people who bought high because it left many 'under water' and therefor unable to sell for the amount owed on a property, which forced a lot of folks to 'walk away' from their homes thus allowing them to be foreclosed on.
Folks like me who bought homes 20 or so years ago and never refinanced, survived that downturn in the market because we owed less than the property was worth and because we didn't have to sell it.
Renters are in a more volatile position unless they live somewhere where there is rent control. Like New York, rents in Portland have surpassed incomes to the point that many folks cannot afford to live here. They have a couple of choices which are not great options. They can life some distance away which requires long commute times, they can double up with roommates, or get second and third jobs to make ends meet.
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It is.
It devalues debt.
I bought a new Ute in Feb 2020. I can sell it for what I paid for it today after using it for 2.5yrs.
I bought land and built a high spec large home. I used 90% LVR which is now 45% without me doing anything.
The important part is you need to do as much as you can at the start of the inflationary cycle, not the end.
Then the interest rates on debt skyrocket- leading to a net loss. Like all financial swings, those who make the play early do ok. But that is one shit way to run an economy since those on fixed or retirement incomes get slaughtered. Not everyone is Gordon Gecko.
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Real estate can really mess you up if you buy at the wrong time and overpay.
It can kill you.
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Real estate can really mess you up if you buy at the wrong time and overpay.
It can kill you.
My brother purchased a nice house last year.
Going to lose his ass.
Also, Zillow is not accurate at estimating the value of your home. If you want real value, have a realtor provide comps per square footage of recent sales in your subdivision.
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Real estate can really mess you up if you buy at the wrong time and overpay.
It can kill you.
I know very successful real estate investors who bought many of their best properties from failed real estate investors who were forced to sell at a loss because they didn't know what they were doing.
It's a good investment that can make one very wealthy, but it's not passive, requires a lot of work, and it's very easy to screw up if you don't know what you're doing.
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I know very successful real estate investors who bought many of their best properties from failed real estate investors who were forced to sell at a loss because they didn't know what they were doing.
It's a good investment that can make one very wealthy, but it's not passive, requires a lot of work, and it's very easy to screw up if you don't know what you're doing.
My 3 rentals were purchased just after the 2008 crash.
I sold one of them 2 years ago for 3.5 times what i paid for it in 2009.
It's a dangerous game to be played.
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My 3 rentals were purchased just after the 2008 crash.
I sold one of them 2 years ago for 3.5 times what i paid for it in 2009.
It's a dangerous game to be played.
Congratulations!
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My brother purchased a nice house last year.
Going to lose his ass.
Also, Zillow is not accurate at estimating the value of your home. If you want real value, have a realtor provide comps per square footage of recent sales in your subdivision.
There are at least 10 online Real Estate sites all of which estimate property values and most of which including Zillow use comps as an estimating tool.
Estimating by square footage is fine, but it is not the only consideration. Number of rooms, i.e., bedrooms and bathrooms are important.
What a realtor does that these sites do not is determine how showable and sellable your place is which takes into consideration its condition, including updates and remodeling. Some homes 'show better' than others, they are often the ones that sell the fastest.
What a property looks like online is often not how it does in person. There are camera tricks that make a small space seem larger. Virtual staging is also a tool realtors use to encourage people to want to see the place in person.
Often the lender has the final say over a property's value.
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https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/07/18/poll-joe-bidens-economic-approval-rating-crashes-new-low/
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There are at least 10 online Real Estate sites all of which estimate property values and most of which including Zillow use comps as an estimating tool.
Estimating by square footage is fine, but it is not the only consideration. Number of rooms, i.e., bedrooms and bathrooms are important.
What a realtor does that these sites do not is determine how showable and sellable your place is which takes into consideration its condition, including updates and remodeling. Some homes 'show better' than others, they are often the ones that sell the fastest.
What a property looks like online is often not how it does in person. There are camera tricks that make a small space seem larger. Virtual staging is also a tool realtors use to encourage people to want to see the place in person.
Often the lender has the final say over a property's value.
Thanks Google.
I've been flipping houses for 20 years.
Zillow absolutely is not accurate.
For reasons you just mentioned.
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Thanks Google.
I've been flipping houses for 20 years.
Zillow absolutely is not accurate.
For reasons you just mentioned.
My parents flipped houses in L.A. County starting in the mid 1950's. We moved a lot. Their first house was in West Los Angeles. A small 3 bedroom, 1 1/4 bath on a city lot with a detached garage. They basically just painted it inside and out and fixed up the landscape up a little. They made a tidy profit which they parlayed into the next house and so on for many years. Their mistake was to keep buying more expensive houses until eventually they were in one, they could not afford. It is a tough business, especially if you live in the houses while fixing them up.
No doubt you know more than I do about today's market and flipping houses. My wife and I have only owned 4 houses since we got married. All of them needed cosmetic work. We weren't flipping them though, they were home. The longest I've ever lived in one house or one place for that matter, is where I live now.
My wife and I bought my current home in 1999 from a couple getting divorced. We paid $214,000 for it. It was in good condition, but it was built in 1977 and never remodeled. We lovingly referred to it as the Brady Bunch house. The property was a forest of large trees, mostly firs and oaks, which made it impossible to landscape. I've put a veritable fortune into maintaining. remodeling, landscaping, and upgrading the mechanics, i.e., the furnace, air conditioning, tankless water heater etc. According to a friend who is a realtor, it is presently worth around 4 times what we paid for it today. Coincidentally Zillow agrees. But that’s a moot point since I have no plans to sell it.
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Thanks Google.
I've been flipping houses for 20 years.
Zillow absolutely is not accurate.
For reasons you just mentioned.
do you hire contractors or do it yourself?
E
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If shit was up just 9% it wouldn’t be that bad. Everything is up wayyyy more.
Bingo.
Nine percent is shit. 109 percent is fucked.
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do you hire contractors or do it yourself?
E
I did it myself the first 6-8 years, my cousin is a home builder and helped me a lot.
Sometimes i'd pay one of his crews a day rate when i needed large renovations. To help me for a few days.
There are many things that are worth paying for.
But i have a plan to re-develop areas that will see future growth, so 9 times out of 10 i make a profit. Not always a big win, but not a loss.
It's a difficult plan, but i've been working in residential development most of my career, so i know the ropes.
Lost my ass twice, learned a lot. Learned to focus on strategic locations over cost.
Almost all of my homes were in college towns, easy to make money in that environment. Those areas never lose money.
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My parents flipped houses in L.A. County starting in the mid 1950's. We moved a lot. Their first house was in West Los Angeles. A small 3 bedroom, 1 1/4 bath on a city lot with a detached garage. They basically just painted it inside and out and fixed up the landscape up a little. They made a tidy profit which they parlayed into the next house and so on for many years. Their mistake was to keep buying more expensive houses until eventually they were in one, they could not afford. It is a tough business, especially if you live in the houses while fixing them up.
No doubt you know more than I do about today's market and flipping houses. My wife and I have only owned 4 houses since we got married. All of them needed cosmetic work. We weren't flipping them though, they were home. The longest I've ever lived in one house or one place for that matter, is where I live now.
My wife and I bought my current home in 1999 from a couple getting divorced. We paid $214,000 for it. It was in good condition, but it was built in 1977 and never remodeled. We lovingly referred to it as the Brady Bunch house. The property was a forest of large trees, mostly firs and oaks, which made it impossible to landscape. I've put a veritable fortune into maintaining. remodeling, landscaping, and upgrading the mechanics, i.e., the furnace, air conditioning, tankless water heater etc. According to a friend who is a realtor, it is presently worth around 4 times what we paid for it today. Coincidentally Zillow agrees. But that’s a moot point since I have no plans to sell it.
Just messing with you Prime.
Zillow is a good benchmark for home value, but isn't always accurate.
A lot goes into the sales price of a house, as you stated.
My house i lived in for 6 years in Houston, Zillow had it at 370k, but because of the subdivision i lived in and the fact it was in the back of the neighborhood surrounded by much more expensive homes, i was able to sell it for 100k over that. It was the smallest house in the area and had good "bones". People will pay a premium for that.
School districts dictate a lot too, it was in an area that had one of the best public high schools around and a very fancy private high school too, just 2 miles away.
All those things drove it up more than anticipated. I was patient and left it on the market until someone offered what i wanted. Houses were selling in days/weeks and i held for 7 months.
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.
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Then the interest rates on debt skyrocket- leading to a net loss. Like all financial swings, those who make the play early do ok. But that is one shit way to run an economy since those on fixed or retirement incomes get slaughtered. Not everyone is Gordon Gecko.
There’s already runaway inflation in some good sized countries. China’s can’t be counted on for growth anymore.
The money printing game is over
“Voluntary abandonment” is the only option:
Which encourages saving.
Go back to when the Boomers were young, sky high interest rates yet they all came up with the 20%-30% deposits inside a year by the time they were 22.
Under the right conditions the 5yr cycles were some of the largest growth and money making opportunities.
People are complaining about the extra $0.30 they pay for milk yet they aren’t complaining about the 300k price increase on their investment property.
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Which encourages saving.
Go back to when the Boomers were young, sky high interest rates yet they all came up with the 20%-30% deposits inside a year by the time they were 22.
Under the right conditions the 5yr cycles were some of the largest growth and money making opportunities.
People are complaining about the extra $0.30 they pay for milk yet they aren’t complaining about the 300k price increase on their investment property.
Most Boomers used FHA low downpayment mortgages to buy their first homes.
20-30% down at age 22? No way unless their parents helped them.
It took me a few years to save up the minimum down + closing costs and escrows.
That was close to $7500 in 1984 on a $50,000 house with an FHA mortgage.
How old are you Mayday?
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Which encourages saving.
Go back to when the Boomers were young, sky high interest rates yet they all came up with the 20%-30% deposits inside a year by the time they were 22.
Under the right conditions the 5yr cycles were some of the largest growth and money making opportunities.
People are complaining about the extra $0.30 they pay for milk yet they aren’t complaining about the 300k price increase on their investment property.
Prices going up does the opposite. People buy asap because the price will be higher in short order.
If currency devaluation is so great why not make the currency worthless. That would be awesome, right?
And if money printing is so great why not let everybody do it and not have governments being the only ones having the fun?
The current system is based on a few central planners pushing all the right buttons at the right times, the antithesis of a free market.
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Then the interest rates on debt skyrocket- leading to a net loss. Like all financial swings, those who make the play early do ok. But that is one shit way to run an economy since those on fixed or retirement incomes get slaughtered. Not everyone is Gordon Gecko.
It’s a good way to run an economy if you want a bloated inefficient government which spends beyond its mean and sucks the life out of the private sector.
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Just messing with you Prime.
Zillow is a good benchmark for home value, but isn't always accurate.
A lot goes into the sales price of a house, as you stated.
My house i lived in for 6 years in Houston, Zillow had it at 370k, but because of the subdivision i lived in and the fact it was in the back of the neighborhood surrounded by much more expensive homes, i was able to sell it for 100k over that. It was the smallest house in the area and had good "bones". People will pay a premium for that.
School districts dictate a lot too, it was in an area that had one of the best public high schools around and a very fancy private high school too, just 2 miles away.
All those things drove it up more than anticipated. I was patient and left it on the market until someone offered what i wanted. Houses were selling in days/weeks and i held for 7 months.
As you know, there are some rules of thumb for flipping houses profitably. Smallest house needing the most work in a neighborhood is a pretty sure bet. You are sure right about school districts. West Linn and Lake Oswego our neighboring suburb have the two best school districts in Oregon. What is hard to predict is the emotional side of choosing a property. Sometimes the buyer clicks with the house, maybe it reminds them of good times or their childhood home.
There is a lot of money to be made flipping houses but if you get it wrong, there is also a lot to lose. Like my parents, I bought nicer houses in better neighborhoods. One difference between us is that I invested my profits from the previous house buying the new house, so the mortgages were always manageable. My current house payment is less than what you can rent a 1-bedroom apartment for in my neighborhood. Property taxes are a whole other issue.
It just so happens that the dump I bought in a then seedy Portland neighborhood back in the 70's for which I paid $13,000, is close in value to the house I have now because it is just a couple of miles from downtown Portland. That rundown neighborhood is one of the most sought-after places to live in Portland. A couple of years ago the owners let me tour the house. It was okay, but nothing special unless you happen to love bungalows built in 1910 with original fir floors and beefed-up millwork.
There's a house for sale in West Linn with an asking price of $42,000,000. It is a Willamette riverfront house with 11 bedrooms 18 bathrooms and 51,908 sq ft. And I believe it is still under construction. Many houses in this little town sell for million or more. Looking at the big picture, my house value is quite modest. Sometimes I think a lot of my neighbors have stock in Tesla because there are so many of those over-priced cars around here. LOL! I drive a compact Mazda that's 6 years old.
(https://photos.zillowstatic.com/fp/989d7a7e3929f1a9e774823aae4efd23-cc_ft_1536.webp) (virtual exterior photo)
(https://photos.zillowstatic.com/fp/034cdb8c7a8aeac54901ded45c3b25aa-uncropped_scaled_within_1536_1152.webp)
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US housing market could be headed for ‘meltdown,’ economist warns
https://nypost.com/2022/07/19/us-housing-market-could-be-headed-for-meltdown-economist/
“Pretty soon, anyone who has bought a home in recent months will be sitting on a loss,” Shepherdson added.
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As you know, there are some rules of thumb for flipping houses profitably. Smallest house needing the most work in a neighborhood is a pretty sure bet. You are sure right about school districts. West Linn and Lake Oswego our neighboring suburb have the two best school districts in Oregon. What is hard to predict is the emotional side of choosing a property. Sometimes the buyer clicks with the house, maybe it reminds them of good times or their childhood home.
There is a lot of money to be made flipping houses but if you get it wrong, there is also a lot to lose. Like my parents, I bought nicer houses in better neighborhoods. One difference between us is that I invested my profits from the previous house buying the new house, so the mortgages were always manageable. My current house payment is less than what you can rent a 1-bedroom apartment for in my neighborhood. Property taxes are a whole other issue.
Yeah i've always bought small houses that needed lots of repairs, but had good bones; foundation, roof, HVAC system, electrical, etc.
Good school districts and amenities.
It really is a crap shoot because everyone is different, but everyone wants good schools if they have kids.
I'm heavily involved in land planning and development, so i can see the future to an extent. I know once a certain area starts to improve to go with it, don't wait and be the last one in. It's easy to lose your ass. The first 3 houses i flipped i barely made a profit and it was due to not knowing certain tricks. There are deal breakers for some people that i didn't understand. So i started targeting young families with young kids, not the rich folks. People with money are very picky and annoying to deal with.
Also, i stay out of the big Cities now, focus on College towns with 100k or so population, low property taxes and utilities. These areas tend to be more stable, but it's always about timing and many times just dumb luck.
My biggest profit i ever made was in a College town in Texas, i put the house on the market way higher than anticipated and a rich couple came in and bought it cash for my asking price. I was so happy and shocked at the same time. That sale alone basically kickstarted my house flipping business.
I stopped flipping houses right before Covid, i got lucky. It is very volatile right now and too many people are doing it. Now i'm buying undeveloped property in certain areas, that i can sell or develop in the next 10-20 years. With my connections and experience i can develop a small tract of land for 20-30% less than most developers. Just waiting to see what the next big thing is. My cousin made millions developing mini-storage warehouse units in SE Texas. Those things are still very hot in America and relatively cheap to build.
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Yeah i've always bought small houses that needed lots of repairs, but had good bones; foundation, roof, HVAC system, electrical, etc.
Good school districts and amenities.
It really is a crap shoot because everyone is different, but everyone wants good schools if they have kids.
I'm heavily involved in land planning and development, so i can see the future to an extent. I know once a certain area starts to improve to go with it, don't wait and be the last one in. It's easy to lose your ass. The first 3 houses i flipped i barely made a profit and it was due to not knowing certain tricks. There are deal breakers for some people that i didn't understand. So i started targeting young families with young kids, not the rich folks. People with money are very picky and annoying to deal with.
Also, i stay out of the big Cities now, focus on College towns with 100k or so population, low property taxes and utilities. These areas tend to be more stable, but it's always about timing and many times just dumb luck.
My biggest profit i ever made was in a College town in Texas, i put the house on the market way higher than anticipated and a rich couple came in and bought it cash for my asking price. I was so happy and shocked at the same time. That sale alone basically kickstarted my house flipping business.
I stopped flipping houses right before Covid, i got lucky. It is very volatile right now and too many people are doing it. Now i'm buying undeveloped property in certain areas, that i can sell or develop in the next 10-20 years. With my connections and experience i can develop a small tract of land for 20-30% less than most developers. Just waiting to see what the next big thing is. My cousin made millions developing mini-storage warehouse units in SE Texas. Those things are still very hot in America and relatively cheap to build.
It is wise of you to be and lucky that you can be so flexible. If you develop the land you are buying up now over the next 20 years, your real estate development career will be very long. Do you have any plans to retire someday or are you one of those people who will work until they die? I've been retired for eleven years. Going back to work at this point in my life is unthinkable.
COVID has impacted so many lives. Even though I am retired as are many of my friends, this virus turned some of us into hermits. One of my best friends is immune deficient because of having chemo, and her partner has a bad heart plus he is even older than I am, if that is even possible.; D I have not visited with them since the onset of COVID. My sister-in-law and I enjoy going to lunch every month or so. We've not done this since COVID shut down restaurants. Although I am not particularly worried about getting sick or dying from COVID, many people I know are.
I wish you well in whatever career path you take not that you need it. Obviously, you are a very ambitious person. Ambition most often equals success.
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Remember the "we will never have inflation if velocity doesn't increase" argument? (Credit to a macro guy on twitter)
Well......
"1"
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Prices going up does the opposite. People buy asap because the price will be higher in short order.
If currency devaluation is so great why not make the currency worthless. That would be awesome, right?
And if money printing is so great why not let everybody do it and not have governments being the only ones having the fun?
The current system is based on a few central planners pushing all the right buttons at the right times, the antithesis of a free market.
The extreme doesn’t work at either end for money supply expansion/contraction.
People claim a fixed supply solves everything. Go play monopoly. It starts off with 15% odd increase in the money supply. In the initial rounds people are flush with cash and buy shit properties like those crap dark purple ones without a thought.
Move ahead 30 rounds or so and that 15% expansion becomes more like 1%. A Few players go broke, the remaining 2 players buy their properties for peanuts. Move ahead to round 60 and money supply inflation is 0.2% and the second player goes broke and one player has all property and all money.
The point is on a fixed money supply or extreme tight one, over time it all ends up with 1 person. The point of money supply expansion is to hand out cash to allow the losing players to keep on playing because the rich don’t hand out shit.
One of the 15% inflationary periods was the 1940s.
1940 house 2,938. Household Income 1.368
1942 house 3.775 household income 1885
1946 house 5,150 household income 3,000
How much have wages gone up from 2010-2020? Bugger all as it was aligned to CPI 2%.
How much have wages gone up from 2020-2022? Metric heaps as CPI rips skyward.
It was exactly the same in the 1970s pretty much and it’s exactly the same today.
These cycles last 5yrs. It’s painful and everybody thinks it will crash when they are in it, next minute property has doubled along with wages. What just happened these last 2yrs? Property up 30%+ and wages up 30+ And everybody think it’s going to crash.
Also keep in mind Pelosi just bought shares in nvidea. While everyone is busy yelling ‘corruption’ not a single person has said ‘oh shit, the bottom is in, there is no major crash coming’.
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https://www.atr.org/list-of-biden-tax-hikes-hitting-americans-on-jan-1/
President Biden and congressional Democrats (and RINO's) imposed a long list of tax increases as part of their “Inflation Reduction Act” passed in 2022.
On Jan. 1, 2023 the following Democrat tax hikes will take effect:
$6.5 Billion Natural Gas Tax Which Will Increase Household Energy Bills
Think your household energy bills are high now? Just wait until the three major energy taxes in the Inflation Reduction Act hit your wallet. The first is a regressive tax on American oil and gas development. The tax will drive up the cost of household energy bills. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the natural gas tax will increase taxes by $6.5 billion.
The tax hike violates President Biden’s tax pledge to any American making less than $400,000 per year. Biden administration officials have repeatedly admitted taxes that raise consumer energy prices are in violation of President Biden’s $400,000 tax pledge.
A letter to Congress from the American Gas Association warned that the methane tax would amount to a 17% increase on an average family’s natural gas bill. Democrats have included a tax in the bill despite retail prices for energy surpassing multi-year highs in the United States.
$12 Billion Crude Oil Tax Which Will Increase Household Costs
Democrats are imposing a 16.4 cents-per-barrel tax on crude oil and imported petroleum products that will be passed on to consumers in the form of higher gas prices.
The tax hike violates President Biden’s tax pledge to any American making less than $400,000 per year.
As noted above, Biden administration officials have repeatedly admitted taxes that raise consumer energy prices are in violation of President Biden’s $400,000 tax pledge.
As if it weren’t bad enough, Democrats have pegged their oil tax increase to inflation. As inflation increases, so will the level of tax.
The non-partisan Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) estimates the provision will raise $12 billion in taxes.
$1.2 Billion Coal Tax Which Will Increase Household Energy Bills
The tax hike more than doubles the current excise taxes on coal production. Under the Democrat proposal, the tax rate on coal from subsurface mining would increase from $0.50 per ton to $1.10 per ton while the tax rate on coal from surface mining would increase from $0.25 per ton to $0.55 per ton.
JCT estimates that this will raise $1.2 billion in taxes that will be passed on to consumers in the form of higher electricity bills.
$74 Billion Stock Tax Which Will Hit Your Nest Egg — 401(k)s, IRAs and Pension Plans
When Americans choose to sell shares of stock back to a company, Democrats will impose a new federal excise tax which will reduce the value of household nest eggs. Raising taxes and restricting stock buybacks harms the retirement savings of any individual with a 401(k), IRA or pension plan.
Union retirement plans will also be hit.
The tax will put U.S. employers at a competitive disadvantage with China, which does not have such a tax.
Stock buybacks help grow retirement accounts. Raising taxes and restricting buybacks would harm the 58 percent of Americans who own stock and more than 60 million workers invested in a 401(k). An additional 14.83 million Americans are invested in 529 education savings accounts.
Retirement accounts hold the largest share of corporate stocks, accounting for roughly 37 percent of the outstanding $22.8 trillion in U.S. corporate stock, according to the Tax Foundation.
In 2017, corporate-sponsored funds made up $4.45 trillion in market value; union-sponsored funds accounted for $409 billion; and public-sponsored funds, which benefit teachers and police officers, added up to $4.25 trillion.
When companies perform stock buybacks, these investors are the ones who benefit. A tax on buybacks could dissuade companies from conducting this action and negatively impact retirement savings.
American companies will face significant compliance costs — a boon to expensive white-shoe law firms — the burden of which will be passed on to working households.
$225 Billion Corporate Income Tax Hike Which Will Be Passed on to Households
Democrats imposed a 15 percent corporate alternative minimum tax on the financial statement income of American businesses reporting $1 billion in profits for the past three years. These American companies employ millions of Americans.
The cost of this tax increase will be borne by working families in the form of higher prices, fewer jobs, and lower wages.
A Tax Foundation report from last December found a 15 percent book tax would reduce GDP by 0.1 percent and kill 27,000 jobs.
Preliminary cost estimates from the Congressional Budget Office found the provision would increase taxes by more than $225 billion.
According to JCT’s analysis, 49.7 percent of the tax would be borne by the manufacturing industry at a time when manufacturers are already struggling with supply-chain disruptions.
Tax Foundation also warned that current supply chain issues could be worsened by the book tax’s disproportionate burden on key industries. The report concluded that “the coal industry faces the heaviest burden of the book minimum tax, facing a net tax hike of 7.2 percent of its pretax book income, followed by automobile and truck manufacturing, which faces a 5.1 percent tax hike.”
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Thanks, Joe. You're the best.^
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Read my lips... No new taxes
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Read my lips... No new taxes
This will cost Biden his Presidency.
These guys don’t learn.
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This will cost Biden his Presidency.
These guys don’t learn.
You are assuming he has to actually win an election with votes. 81 million.
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This will cost Biden his Presidency.
These guys don’t learn.
The taxes will stay. Plebs voted in a guy with clear mental deficiencies as their president.
I’m not convinced it’s the politicians who don’t know what they are doing.
The first inflationary wave is completed. I just deleted a drool of words to spare what forward data suggests.
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For F sake! >:(
https://www.atr.org/list-of-biden-tax-hikes-hitting-americans-on-jan-1/
President Biden and congressional Democrats (and RINO's) imposed a long list of tax increases as part of their “Inflation Reduction Act” passed in 2022.
On Jan. 1, 2023 the following Democrat tax hikes will take effect:
$6.5 Billion Natural Gas Tax Which Will Increase Household Energy Bills
Think your household energy bills are high now? Just wait until the three major energy taxes in the Inflation Reduction Act hit your wallet. The first is a regressive tax on American oil and gas development. The tax will drive up the cost of household energy bills. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the natural gas tax will increase taxes by $6.5 billion.
The tax hike violates President Biden’s tax pledge to any American making less than $400,000 per year. Biden administration officials have repeatedly admitted taxes that raise consumer energy prices are in violation of President Biden’s $400,000 tax pledge.
A letter to Congress from the American Gas Association warned that the methane tax would amount to a 17% increase on an average family’s natural gas bill. Democrats have included a tax in the bill despite retail prices for energy surpassing multi-year highs in the United States.
$12 Billion Crude Oil Tax Which Will Increase Household Costs
Democrats are imposing a 16.4 cents-per-barrel tax on crude oil and imported petroleum products that will be passed on to consumers in the form of higher gas prices.
The tax hike violates President Biden’s tax pledge to any American making less than $400,000 per year.
As noted above, Biden administration officials have repeatedly admitted taxes that raise consumer energy prices are in violation of President Biden’s $400,000 tax pledge.
As if it weren’t bad enough, Democrats have pegged their oil tax increase to inflation. As inflation increases, so will the level of tax.
The non-partisan Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) estimates the provision will raise $12 billion in taxes.
$1.2 Billion Coal Tax Which Will Increase Household Energy Bills
The tax hike more than doubles the current excise taxes on coal production. Under the Democrat proposal, the tax rate on coal from subsurface mining would increase from $0.50 per ton to $1.10 per ton while the tax rate on coal from surface mining would increase from $0.25 per ton to $0.55 per ton.
JCT estimates that this will raise $1.2 billion in taxes that will be passed on to consumers in the form of higher electricity bills.
$74 Billion Stock Tax Which Will Hit Your Nest Egg — 401(k)s, IRAs and Pension Plans
When Americans choose to sell shares of stock back to a company, Democrats will impose a new federal excise tax which will reduce the value of household nest eggs. Raising taxes and restricting stock buybacks harms the retirement savings of any individual with a 401(k), IRA or pension plan.
Union retirement plans will also be hit.
The tax will put U.S. employers at a competitive disadvantage with China, which does not have such a tax.
Stock buybacks help grow retirement accounts. Raising taxes and restricting buybacks would harm the 58 percent of Americans who own stock and more than 60 million workers invested in a 401(k). An additional 14.83 million Americans are invested in 529 education savings accounts.
Retirement accounts hold the largest share of corporate stocks, accounting for roughly 37 percent of the outstanding $22.8 trillion in U.S. corporate stock, according to the Tax Foundation.
In 2017, corporate-sponsored funds made up $4.45 trillion in market value; union-sponsored funds accounted for $409 billion; and public-sponsored funds, which benefit teachers and police officers, added up to $4.25 trillion.
When companies perform stock buybacks, these investors are the ones who benefit. A tax on buybacks could dissuade companies from conducting this action and negatively impact retirement savings.
American companies will face significant compliance costs — a boon to expensive white-shoe law firms — the burden of which will be passed on to working households.
$225 Billion Corporate Income Tax Hike Which Will Be Passed on to Households
Democrats imposed a 15 percent corporate alternative minimum tax on the financial statement income of American businesses reporting $1 billion in profits for the past three years. These American companies employ millions of Americans.
The cost of this tax increase will be borne by working families in the form of higher prices, fewer jobs, and lower wages.
A Tax Foundation report from last December found a 15 percent book tax would reduce GDP by 0.1 percent and kill 27,000 jobs.
Preliminary cost estimates from the Congressional Budget Office found the provision would increase taxes by more than $225 billion.
According to JCT’s analysis, 49.7 percent of the tax would be borne by the manufacturing industry at a time when manufacturers are already struggling with supply-chain disruptions.
Tax Foundation also warned that current supply chain issues could be worsened by the book tax’s disproportionate burden on key industries. The report concluded that “the coal industry faces the heaviest burden of the book minimum tax, facing a net tax hike of 7.2 percent of its pretax book income, followed by automobile and truck manufacturing, which faces a 5.1 percent tax hike.”
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Classic line from Dementia Joe the other day:
"Used car prices did not go up this month"!! ::) ::)
Moron
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https://www.atr.org/list-of-biden-tax-hikes-hitting-americans-on-jan-1/
President Biden and congressional Democrats (and RINO's) imposed a long list of tax increases as part of their “Inflation Reduction Act” passed in 2022.
Did the inflation reduction act start working yet?
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Classic line from Dementia Joe the other day:
"Used car prices did not go up this month"!! ::) ::)
Moron
High end car US car market has been falling for a number of months.
We lag to the US down here but I’m seeing the bottom priced cars fighting to hold up the floor price despite pressure from later models building at the same prices. EG 2014 Audi RS7 priced the same as a 2016 RS7. Same with the RS6. 2007-08 Audi R8 priced the same or higher than 2011 models. Stock will keep building because of this idiocy and when it breaks it’ll come down fairly hard.
Did the inflation reduction act start working yet?
According to metrics, yes. really it’s just the rate rises and the stopping of the money printer, not the ‘program’ they created.
The CPI will come down but prices for everyday stuff will sit flat’ish for 1-2yrs before we get a 2nd wave which might be the last one.
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All the central banks have to do is shrink the money supply and inflation would stop over night..
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All the central banks have to do is shrink the money supply and inflation would stop over night..
This Is an inflationary cycle which monetises debt and kicks off the next infrastructure boom.
It’s a 5yr thing generally to kick off the following decade long boom.
It’s the largest wealth generational event of your lifetime. The interesting part is everybody wants it to stop because their McDonalds chips cost $0.50 more than last year.
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This Is an inflationary cycle which monetises debt and kicks off the next infrastructure boom.
It’s a 5yr thing generally to kick off the following decade long boom.
It’s the largest wealth generational event of your lifetime. The interesting part is everybody wants it to stop because their McDonalds chips cost $0.50 more than last year.
Like the late 1970's.
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Like the late 1970's.
But also the 1940s, particularly 1945 to 1952.
Debt monetisation works via the inflation mechanism where most of the inflation in printing happens in a 5yr cycle printing wise but then GDP growth overtakes in the long term and effectively decreases the debt to GDP.
Costs drive higher prices, higher prices increase GDP and higher GDP lowers your debt ratio and like magic, debt is worthless. Huzzah!
A general rule of thumb for the outcome would be to take pre pandemic prices:
*property 100% growth (end of first wave is 50% so this is on schedule - we pullback then go again)
*cars 300% —> although this is not playing out right now but might in the 2nd wave
*income 50% (end of first wave we saw 25% so this is looking on trend)
The vital key is if the govt is making moves to monetise your debt then you make the same move and monetise yours aswell. However proper cashflow management is key as you will end up getting squeezed yourself and for that you need to pick an interest rate you can reach. I can go to 15% whereas I have seen 1 neighbour discuss selling their property to buy further out and another neighbour just sold their 100k SUV for a 40k small car. These are the signs of people getting squeezed…..
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This Is an inflationary cycle which monetises debt and kicks off the next infrastructure boom.
It’s a 5yr thing generally to kick off the following decade long boom.
It’s the largest wealth generational event of your lifetime. The interesting part is everybody wants it to stop because their McDonalds chips cost $0.50 more than last year.
Reading your posts gives me some hope for my retirement... (After 600K disappeared from my 401K thx to the current commie-Lib globalists)...
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Reading your posts gives me some hope for my retirement... (After 600K disappeared from my 401K thx to the current commie-Lib globalists)...
Depends what you are in. Equities will be a see saw. Crypto is playing lottery to hope to win big. I went eyeballs deep on property straight out of Covid lockdown because during inflationary periods debt is monetised and costs rise.
Pulling from an archived news article written in 1952 about Melbourne in Australia we get a very good look into what people thought and saw:
From 1939 to 1952 -->
Bricks went 3.5x
Weatherboard went 5x
paint went 2.5x
City suburban land went 2x to 3x
City premium land went 3x to 4x
Labour went 1.5x
Home construction lead times blew out to 2yrs due to labour and product shortages
Home contracts went from fixed priced to a cost+ model with no fixed end date
Tradesmen took smaller sub cash jobs which pulled them from contracted work and caused delays
Post the inflationary end property had a -20% cool off for large homes and 10%-15% for smaller homes. Builds times went back to 6-8 months and prices stabilised.
One of the key learnings by the journalist was during the 40s people thought prices couldn't go higher but because the building materials kept climbing to what were deemed unreasonable levels. However, buyers merely turned off new builds and went on a buying rampage of existing homes which were priced cheaper in comparison. This ended up increasing existing home prices up to the point where they met new home builds. Why? Because once costs were elevated they never dropped back therefore the cost to buy/build went up to match the cost of the products.
The article written 70yrs ago reads like it was written today. The inflationary cycle was really 1945-1952, a span of 7yrs where this really played out.
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The bull run we are in is what will really make the shit hit the fan with inflation.
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The bull run we are in is what will really make the shit hit the fan with inflation.
Will this effect everyone or just those invested?