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Getbig Main Boards => Politics and Political Issues Board => Topic started by: Soul Crusher on March 13, 2012, 08:13:25 PM

Title: Japan: "We are worse than Greece".
Post by: Soul Crusher on March 13, 2012, 08:13:25 PM
Japan's Shocking Keynesian Slip: "We Are Worse Than Greece"
ZeroHedge ^ | 3/13/12 | Tyler Durden




In a stunning turn of events, a Japanese Ministry of Finance official admits to Richard Koo's worst nightmare "Japan is fiscally worse than Greece". Bloomberg is reporting that, at a conference in Tokyo, Yasushi Kinoshita says Japan's 2011 fiscal deficit was up to 10% of GDP and its debt-to-GDP has soared to over 230%.

(Excerpt) Read more at zerohedge.com ...
Title: Re: Japan: "We are worse than Greece".
Post by: Hugo Chavez on March 14, 2012, 04:54:21 AM
Japan's Shocking Keynesian Slip: "We Are Worse Than Greece"
ZeroHedge ^ | 3/13/12 | Tyler Durden




In a stunning turn of events, a Japanese Ministry of Finance official admits to Richard Koo's worst nightmare "Japan is fiscally worse than Greece". Bloomberg is reporting that, at a conference in Tokyo, Yasushi Kinoshita says Japan's 2011 fiscal deficit was up to 10% of GDP and its debt-to-GDP has soared to over 230%.

(Excerpt) Read more at zerohedge.com ...

Fucking hell, did everyone forget what Japan just had to go through in the last year?  Did anyone think it would be business as usual over the last year for them?  No fucking shit huh...  ::)
Title: Re: Japan: "We are worse than Greece".
Post by: Hugo Chavez on March 14, 2012, 05:00:11 AM
3333, you've been fooled.... Look at the author... "Tyler Durden" lol...
Title: Re: Japan: "We are worse than Greece".
Post by: Soul Crusher on March 14, 2012, 05:07:22 AM
 :)
3333, you've been fooled.... Look at the author... "Tyler Durden" lol...


Fooled?   Zero hedge is one of the best sites going.
Title: Re: Japan: "We are worse than Greece".
Post by: Hugo Chavez on March 14, 2012, 05:28:08 AM
:)
Fooled?   Zero hedge is one of the best sites going.
Ok, a little odd that everyone that writes for them goes by Tyler Durden.  But whatever, my first post still stands, respond to that which was more important anyway. 
Title: Re: Japan: "We are worse than Greece".
Post by: pedro01 on March 14, 2012, 05:33:34 AM
:)
Fooled?   Zero hedge is one of the best sites going.

LMAO!

Have you not figured it out yet?

Zero Hedge is the Financial equivalent of the tin foil hat brigade.

Honestly - their site is not to be taken seriously.
Title: Re: Japan: "We are worse than Greece".
Post by: James on March 14, 2012, 06:19:46 AM
LMAO!

Have you not figured it out yet?

Zero Hedge is the Financial equivalent of the tin foil hat brigade.

Honestly - their site is not to be taken seriously.


Forbes

Coming to Grips with Japan's Government Debt

http://www.forbes.com/sites/stephenharner/2011/11/18/coming-to-grips-with-japans-government-debt/

According to Ministry of Finance statistics, in the current 2011 fiscal year accumulated central and local government debt has already reached 229.1 percent of Japanese GDP on a gross basis, and 127.8 percent on a net basis.  By comparison, the numbers for the U.S. are 99.5 percent (gross) and 72.4 percent (net);  for Italy 120.5 percent (gross) and 100.6 percent (net); for the UK 83 percent (gross) and 75.1 percent (net); for France 87.6 percent (gross) and 77.9 percent (net); and for Germany 80.1 percent (gross) and 54.7 percent (net).

Already the world’s most indebted OECD country by far, Japan has in recent years been adding to the deficit at clip exceeded only by the U.S.   Japan’s fiscal deficit in FY2011 was 10 percent of the GDP, compared to a deficit of 10.8 percent of GDP in the U.S., 8.6 percent in the UK, 6.0 percent in France, 4.3 percent in Italy, and 2.3 percent in Germany.
Title: Re: Japan: "We are worse than Greece".
Post by: Soul Crusher on March 14, 2012, 06:24:10 AM
Japans' debt issues are a surprise to people? 



Title: Re: Japan: "We are worse than Greece".
Post by: Hugo Chavez on March 14, 2012, 06:24:32 AM
it's like everyone is oblivious to what Japan had to go through this last year.
Title: Re: Japan: "We are worse than Greece".
Post by: James on March 14, 2012, 06:28:22 AM

"Japan's debt problem Sleepwalking towards disaster"

Apr 8th 2010

http://www.economist.com/node/15868024
Title: Re: Japan: "We are worse than Greece".
Post by: Soul Crusher on March 14, 2012, 06:28:54 AM
it's like everyone is oblivious to what Japan had to go through this last year.

FAIL.   They had these issues long before the tsunami.  

And according to the leftist progressive nobel laureates like Krugman - shouldnt the tsunami be a boon to the economy?  
Title: Re: Japan: "We are worse than Greece".
Post by: Hugo Chavez on March 14, 2012, 06:35:56 AM
FAIL.   They had these issues long before the tsunami.  

And according to the leftist progressive nobel laureates like Krugman - shouldnt the tsunami be a boon to the economy?  
yea, no fucking shit, but didn't we all expect it would get worse in the last year? I think we all figured a year ago that the numbers were going to just get worse for Japan, well, obviously not all of us ::)   It wasn't just a tsunami  ::)

PS. Shove the Fail up your ass.
Title: Re: Japan: "We are worse than Greece".
Post by: Soul Crusher on March 14, 2012, 06:52:01 AM
yea, no fucking shit, but didn't we all expect it would get worse in the last year? I think we all figured a year ago that the numbers were going to just get worse for Japan, well, obviously not all of us ::)   It wasn't just a tsunami  ::)

PS. Shove the Fail up your ass.


LOL.   Like I said - leftist keynsians would be proven correct if japan were booming right now no? 
Title: Re: Japan: "We are worse than Greece".
Post by: Hugo Chavez on March 14, 2012, 06:57:43 AM

LOL.   Like I said - leftist keynsians would be proven correct if japan were booming right now no? 
::)  The only person entertaining that fantasy is you. 
Title: Re: Japan: "We are worse than Greece".
Post by: Soul Crusher on March 14, 2012, 06:58:50 AM
::)  The only person entertaining that fantasy is you. 


And apparently Krugman, the leftists, the idiot posters at the NYT, HP, DU, MSNBC, etc.   
Title: Re: Japan: "We are worse than Greece".
Post by: Fury on March 14, 2012, 09:13:10 AM
Japan was been in a worse situation for years. But people continue to ignore them and buy their debt. Japan's only saving grace is that its populace buys most of the government debt but even that has been changing.

Keynesianism rocks!  ::)
Title: Re: Japan: "We are worse than Greece".
Post by: GigantorX on March 14, 2012, 09:16:34 AM
it's like everyone is oblivious to what Japan had to go through this last year.

They have been drowning in debt since the 1990's and their failure to "recover" from their credit/RE bubble. Blaming them being in big trouble debt-wise on last years disaster is pretty short  sighted.
Title: Re: Japan: "We are worse than Greece".
Post by: Fury on March 14, 2012, 09:19:28 AM
They have been drowning in debt since the 1990's and their failure to "recover" from their credit/RE bubble. Blaming them being in big trouble debt-wise on last years disaster is pretty short  sighted.

Sounds like something Obama would do.



Oh wait, he has.  ::)
Title: Re: Japan: "We are worse than Greece".
Post by: GigantorX on March 14, 2012, 09:19:50 AM
LMAO!

Have you not figured it out yet?

Zero Hedge is the Financial equivalent of the tin foil hat brigade.

Honestly - their site is not to be taken seriously.

Incorrect.

They can be pretty dramatic over there but they also are home to excellent analysis and statistical information.

Some of the best, in fact, when breaking down govt. data like U.E. claims and such.
Title: Re: Japan: "We are worse than Greece".
Post by: Fury on March 14, 2012, 09:21:15 AM
Incorrect.

They can be pretty dramatic over there but they also are home to excellent analysis and statistical information.

Some of the best, in fact, when breaking down govt. data like U.E. claims and such.

I think they're over-the-top in some of their predictions but their statistical analysis is spot-on. And the major networks and news organizations who reference them now seem to agree. The commentators are about as moronic as they are on Getbig but the Tylers do good work.
Title: Re: Japan: "We are worse than Greece".
Post by: kcballer on March 14, 2012, 09:42:31 AM
Shifting demographics and China's emergence have destroyed Japan.   
Title: Re: Japan: "We are worse than Greece".
Post by: GigantorX on March 14, 2012, 09:45:33 AM
Shifting demographics and China's emergence have destroyed Japan.   

Also correct. Aging population + insular population = bad demographic trend.

Poor governance and massive debt have played a large role in decline, too.

China will face the same as well and on a grander scale.
Title: Re: Japan: "We are worse than Greece".
Post by: Fury on March 14, 2012, 09:48:23 AM
Shifting demographics and China's emergence have destroyed Japan.    

China's emergence has much less to do with it than 2 decades of failed economic policies. Funny enough, the same types of policies that your God-King seems intent on emulating.

How surprising that you try to deflect blame off the Keynesian failure that is Japan.
Title: Re: Japan: "We are worse than Greece".
Post by: Shockwave on March 14, 2012, 11:12:40 AM
What ive seen is that Keynesian economics work on paper, but never actually translate into success in real life.
Seems like over and over we see Keynesian econ bankrupt nations, fail time and time, and yet no one will admit that its a broken theory.
Title: Re: Japan: "We are worse than Greece".
Post by: GigantorX on March 14, 2012, 11:44:22 AM
What ive seen is that Keynesian economics work on paper, but never actually translate into success in real life.
Seems like over and over we see Keynesian econ bankrupt nations, fail time and time, and yet no one will admit that its a broken theory.

1.) You're a solid  runner. You run with some poor form. Eventually that injures you, at first it's mild....but instead of nursing the injury and improving your form to prevent other further damage you simply pop a bunch of pills, ice it a bit, put a knee wrap on and continue along the same path.

2.)With your pain and injury masked you plow along...but you favor your knee now and that leads to your body being imbalanced during running/daily activities.....this leads to you straining your hip. Instead of learning from the pain, taking some time off to heal and fixing your form to prevent further damage you simply pop more pills, ice it a bit more, possibly stretch and you then get back out there and continue on the same path.

Now you have a damaged knee and a strained hip. But there is time to learn and heal. You must take time off, lose some conditioning but you can come back leaner and more efficient and more healthy.

3.)You don't though. With your bad knee, bum hip and pain masked by short term pill popping and ice/wraps, stimulants etc you continue on the same path. Now those two injuries lead you to favor a certain side of the body and you now have injured your back to go along with the damaged knee and hip....

Do we see where this is going? It isn't a perfect analogy but I believe it captures the spirit of what is going on. Eventually you either damage yourself so much that you can no longer run or job and are hobbled for the foreseeable future until you learn your lessons and fix what is wrong with you.

Fixing what is wrong with you is the recession, if you ignore it for too long or overdue the pain killers, stimulants and steroids you will mask the pain but the damage is still there and it gets worse and worse. The pills/dope/crank also loses it's effectiveness as you need to use more and more  and more and to get the same effect.
Title: Re: Japan: "We are worse than Greece".
Post by: Shockwave on March 14, 2012, 11:56:13 AM
Ah, youre saying weve come so far along this path that were not willing to deal with the consequences of actually trying to fix things, so we just limp along and try and keep bandaiding it until it finally breaks?
Basically, actually fixing it is going to be too tough for people to want to deal with, so instead theyre willing to just limp a broken system along until its inevitable collapse?

Ive kinda thought the same for a while, that people just arent willing to face reality and do what is necessary to fix things, theyd rather just ignore it and pretend it doesnt exist, ignorance is bliss after all......

BUT, that still doesnt explain people like Krugman that absolutley believe without a doubt that Keynesian econ is the be all end all answer when their only successful example is post WWII America. (Which is just a tiny bit of a much larger system, to me it feels like they built a theory around a very small piece of the pie and cant figure out why it never works out)
 
Title: Re: Japan: "We are worse than Greece".
Post by: howardroark on March 14, 2012, 12:02:14 PM
What's the inflation rate like in Japan? They've had an amazing two-decade record of somehow being able to print tons of cash and live with a low inflation rate. Quite impressive, really.
Title: Re: Japan: "We are worse than Greece".
Post by: GigantorX on March 14, 2012, 12:19:24 PM
What's the inflation rate like in Japan? They've had an amazing two-decade record of somehow being able to print tons of cash and live with a low inflation rate. Quite impressive, really.

Not sure what the rate is, but the population has a real, real high savings rate, a lot of the debt is domestically owned plus they have an export based economy....built by currency manipulation but still. So the govt. can spend money and go into a ton of debt but they have had a huge trade balance in their favor for a very long time.
Title: Re: Japan: "We are worse than Greece".
Post by: GigantorX on March 14, 2012, 12:26:43 PM
Ah, youre saying weve come so far along this path that were not willing to deal with the consequences of actually trying to fix things, so we just limp along and try and keep bandaiding it until it finally breaks?
Basically, actually fixing it is going to be too tough for people to want to deal with, so instead theyre willing to just limp a broken system along until its inevitable collapse?

Ive kinda thought the same for a while, that people just arent willing to face reality and do what is necessary to fix things, theyd rather just ignore it and pretend it doesnt exist, ignorance is bliss after all......

BUT, that still doesnt explain people like Krugman that absolutley believe without a doubt that Keynesian econ is the be all end all answer when their only successful example is post WWII America. (Which is just a tiny bit of a much larger system, to me it feels like they built a theory around a very small piece of the pie and cant figure out why it never works out)
 

We've popped three bubbles in around 20 years. RE bubble+recession in 90-91, internet bubble in 2000 and the biggest bubble in 2007 or so. Each recession is met with the standard playbook with each successive policy action more intense than the last with less effect.

Right now, look at all the deficits, debt, zero % interest rates, stimulus, car trade in schemes, housing schemes, 99 week U.E. insurance, trillions pumped into the markets/Banks by the Fed, payroll tax cut, two wars and on and on.....and take a look at where we are at the point.

-Industrial production is still below pre-crisis levels
-Tax revenues are still down compared to 2007
-Home owner ship
-U.E. levels
-Duration of being unemployed
-Food stamp usage.
-Government dependency
-And on and on.

All that expenditure that could doom us for generations (Again look at Japan) and we aren't anywhere.

The proof is right in front of us and some cheer it on as some form of "Success" or "Progress" when all we've done is totally and utterly fuck ourselves to death.

The blame is everyone, really. The govt. never let the recessions take their course, never really let the corrections happen....so now the populace thinks that this is just the way it goes....
Title: Re: Japan: "We are worse than Greece".
Post by: howardroark on March 14, 2012, 12:29:15 PM
Not sure what the rate is, but the population has a real, real high savings rate, a lot of the debt is domestically owned plus they have an export based economy....built by currency manipulation but still. So the govt. can spend money and go into a ton of debt but they have had a huge trade balance in their favor for a very long time.

The high savings rate would increase the rate of inflation due to the money multiplier. Unless the Japanese prefer storing their cash under their bed rather than in banks.
Title: Re: Japan: "We are worse than Greece".
Post by: GigantorX on March 14, 2012, 12:32:29 PM
The high savings rate would increase the rate of inflation due to the money multiplier. Unless the Japanese prefer storing their cash under their bed rather than in banks.

Good point. But are the banks using those reserves to give out loans and such? Or are the banks hoarding them because they haven't yet recovered from the implosion 20 years ago?
Title: Re: Japan: "We are worse than Greece".
Post by: howardroark on March 14, 2012, 12:34:48 PM
Good point. But are the banks using those reserves to give out loans and such? Or are the banks hoarding them because they haven't yet recovered from the implosion 20 years ago?

Ahh touche. That could explain it. Do you know of any stats that confirm that though?
Title: Re: Japan: "We are worse than Greece".
Post by: GigantorX on March 14, 2012, 12:36:11 PM
Ahh touche. That could explain it. Do you know of any stats that confirm that though?

I'll take a look around the internet.

The banks could be using the reserves as protection or to simply buy the government debt? Batman is on the case.
Title: Re: Japan: "We are worse than Greece".
Post by: kcballer on March 14, 2012, 12:39:06 PM
Also correct. Aging population + insular population = bad demographic trend.

Poor governance and massive debt have played a large role in decline, too.

China will face the same as well and on a grander scale.

Yep, very true.  China is the reincarnation of Japan.  Right down to the cries that they will surpass the US in terms of economic power.