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Title: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: anabolichalo on November 14, 2013, 02:15:51 PM
is it rockey surgery or simple stuff to do with money you dont use anyway


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: ESFitness on November 14, 2013, 02:16:33 PM
is it rockey surgery or simple stuff to do with money you dont use anyway



AH HAH!!!!

Rocky, dude, where you been?


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: anabolichalo on November 14, 2013, 02:17:36 PM
 ???


AH HAH!!!!

Rocky, dude, where you been?
???


dont mock me


im a bber


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: ESFitness on November 14, 2013, 02:20:24 PM
??? ???


dont mock me


im a bber

you don't know why I am, do you?


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: affeman on November 14, 2013, 02:21:49 PM
It's like casino, with the only exception that instead of putting money on red or black you're putting it on up or down.

I've def lost more with shares than I've won.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: anabolichalo on November 14, 2013, 02:24:03 PM
It's like casino, with the only exception that instead of putting money on red or black you're putting it on up or down.

I've def lost more with shares than I've won.
what about safe investments

 ???


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: affeman on November 14, 2013, 02:26:39 PM
what about safe investments

 ???

There are no safe investments, except keeping your money on your savings account, and there you're loosing money year after year as the inflation rate is even higher than the interest rate.

We're doomed.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: anabolichalo on November 14, 2013, 02:28:01 PM
There are no safe investments, except keeping your money on your savings account, and there you're loosing money year after year as the inflation rate is even higher than the interest rate.

We're doomed.
yes i've also realized this


fucked up


 :(


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: affeman on November 14, 2013, 02:30:15 PM
yes i've also realized this


fucked up


 :(

I'm not familiar with the exact situation in the US, but in Europe it has become almost impossible to build up a fortune. The governments are trying their best to make it as hard for you as possible.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: jwb on November 14, 2013, 02:31:26 PM
Buy shares when everyone hates them and sell them when everyone loves them.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: anabolichalo on November 14, 2013, 02:31:34 PM
how come you lost a lot of money with shares?


the companies never recovered?


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: anabolichalo on November 14, 2013, 02:32:53 PM
Buy shares when everyone hates them and sell them when everyone loves them.
yes this is what everyone says as if it's a great secret wisdom...

however it sounds too good to be true



Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: Teutonic Knight on November 14, 2013, 02:33:55 PM
is it rockey surgery or simple stuff to do with money you dont use anyway

rocket science, you dumb arse


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: anabolichalo on November 14, 2013, 02:34:35 PM
rocket science, you dumb arse
rocket surgery you ignorant fool

learn the ways of getbig


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: BB on November 14, 2013, 02:34:51 PM
It's not hard, and you'll do ok if you're not a greedy at it. You definitely need to keep watch over your investments, You just can't sit around, and hope. The best advice I ever received about them is look at the stock and try to understand it on a personal level. If you can't explain to yourself or someone else why you think something is a good investment, and will grow, then don't go putting your money into it.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: ESFitness on November 14, 2013, 02:35:20 PM
if you're gonna invest, it has to be a full time job.

you wake up early and watch the pre-market report, and you trade all day.

all you're trying to do is ride on the coat-tails of the big market movers.

if a stock pop's 3 percent, you're not gonna get that full 3 percent, all you wanna do is catch that middle 1 percent.

the easy thing is all you have to do is pay attention... and use common sense (usually.. sometimes common sense doesn't work. lol).

there's a hurricane? get long oil and short airline's.

there's a natural disaster? short insurance co's with the greatest exposure.

co loses a lawsuit? short it and cover before it bounces back... then get long and hold it on the way back up for a quick pop.

pharma co gets a drug approved? that's good for a 5 point pop, all you wanna do is catch the middle 3 points.

ect, ect, ect....

if you don't pay attention you WILL lose your money, so in that sense, sure, it's like a casino... but when I go to the casino and jump on the roulette table, i'm not throwing chips over the table all willy nilly.... i'm looking at the odd's of the past numbers hitting and i'm playing those, and i'm spreading my chips... top 3rd, end 3rd, black, 4 corners, ect... you increase your chances of winning, but lower your overall winnings. i'd rather make a little for a long time, than make a lot once or twice.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: anabolichalo on November 14, 2013, 02:38:08 PM
full time job

heh... then you have to quit your real job...

have you done this then?


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: WalterWhite on November 14, 2013, 02:41:26 PM
Yes and I've been doing it a long time.  One has to understand each market segment and the drivers within each.  The feds QE program is driving up the market at present so it's not a good entry point.  It's best for new investors to index the market or market segments and dollar cost average over time so your buying at different market levels.

Start doing some reading and watching market wrap ups.  Going in based on market tips etc does not turn out well.  


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: anabolichalo on November 14, 2013, 02:43:58 PM
Yes and I've been doing it a long time.  One has to understand each market segment and the drivers within each.  The feds QE program is driving up the market at present so it's not a good entry point.  It's best for new investors to index the market or market segments and dollar cost average over time so you buying at different market levels.

Start doing some reading and watching market wrap ups.  Going in based on market tips etc does not turn out well. 

is it worth it in the end?

in terms of profit you made personally?


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: WalterWhite on November 14, 2013, 02:48:47 PM
is it worth it in the end?

in terms of profit you made personally?

It's changed my life honestly.  I started very young and have never gotten greedy.

Most don't even check their 401k investments.  I was charting stocks in my early 20's.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: ESFitness on November 14, 2013, 02:58:23 PM
full time job

heh... then you have to quit your real job...

have you done this then?

managed a fund for 3 years.

look at it this way.

$100/day is 26k/yr

$200/day is 52k/yr

and you're looking at capital gains rates... not ordinary income rates for taxes.

in CA, your day will start at 6am at the latest to catch pre-market stuff, market will open at 630am and will close at 1pm. catch some post market stuff, then go on with your day... go to an actual job, ect... catch more post-market stuff and put together notes for the next day and get to bed by 10pm so you can be up and alert by 5am.



Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: Mr. MB on November 14, 2013, 03:02:22 PM
Municipal Utility bonds. If the TVA goes under we can all reach between our legs and kiss our ass goodbye anyway….its over. Put a hundred bucks a month in there and come back in 30 years and odds are you can retire in style. I was foolish and did not do this until I was 55. 73 now and looking good thank you.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: WalterWhite on November 14, 2013, 03:13:09 PM
managed a fund for 3 years.

look at it this way.

$100/day is 26k/yr

$200/day is 52k/yr

and you're looking at capital gains rates... not ordinary income rates for taxes.

in CA, your day will start at 6am at the latest to catch pre-market stuff, market will open at 630am and will close at 1pm. catch some post market stuff, then go on with your day... go to an actual job, ect... catch more post-market stuff and put together notes for the next day and get to bed by 10pm so you can be up and alert by 5am.



Only problem in CA and NY for that matter are the taxes. That's why NH is a nice place to trade with no cap gain tax and no income tax.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: arce1988 on November 14, 2013, 03:21:35 PM
  Walter is the man


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: gmflex on November 14, 2013, 04:00:08 PM
Buy starbucks stock ..
its up 50% this year  :o


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: XFACTOR on November 14, 2013, 04:12:43 PM
Buy starbucks stock ..
its up 50% this year  :o

Most of you probably do not invest and are making things up. But this actually isn't bad advice. Schultz is an amazing CEO. Starbucks is far from done growing,with their expansion into the tea market and growth in china you should see this stock do well.

If any of you don't know his story check it out. Brilliant guy. Everyone told him this luxury coffee idea was terrible, couldn't find anybody in invest.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: galeniko on November 14, 2013, 07:01:21 PM
rothschild private bank stocks went up 600% within few yaers, then came down a bit.



Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: HockeyFightFan on November 14, 2013, 07:09:43 PM
This idiot clogs these boards with as much retarded shit as Shitso did...


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: ESFitness on November 14, 2013, 07:15:40 PM
Only problem in CA and NY for that matter are the taxes. That's why NH is a nice place to trade with no cap gain tax and no income tax.

that's where your Tax attorney (not a CPA or Tax Advisor) and Nevada Corporations come in.  :)


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: ESFitness on November 14, 2013, 07:17:52 PM
Most of you probably do not invest and are making things up. But this actually isn't bad advice. Schultz is an amazing CEO. Starbucks is far from done growing,with their expansion into the tea market and growth in china you should see this stock do well.

If any of you don't know his story check it out. Brilliant guy. Everyone told him this luxury coffee idea was terrible, couldn't find anybody in invest.

said the same thing about Green Mountian (k-cups)... and that took off like hell. (then dipped when fear of a patent running out got out.... then took off again when we found out it was a patent for an old design)


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: galeniko on November 14, 2013, 07:35:14 PM
Most of you probably do not invest and are making things up. But this actually isn't bad advice. Schultz is an amazing CEO. Starbucks is far from done growing,with their expansion into the tea market and growth in china you should see this stock do well.

If any of you don't know his story check it out. Brilliant guy. Everyone told him this luxury coffee idea was terrible, couldn't find anybody in invest.
theres more such storys about now very huge companies, the owners been dead broke and or sold fuck all at first.

i have some book where its listed, will see if i can find it.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: residue on November 14, 2013, 09:06:20 PM
There are no safe investments, except keeping your money on your savings account, and there you're loosing money year after year as the inflation rate is even higher than the interest rate.

We're doomed.

etfs are pretty safe


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: Teutonic Knight on November 14, 2013, 09:56:22 PM
rothschild private bank stocks went up 600% within few yaers, then came down a bit.



Rothschild International Bank use to have back up office in my building (Chatswood/Sydney)
from 1999-2005, 25 workstation + server room.They were good tenants.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: ESFitness on November 14, 2013, 10:06:43 PM
etfs are pretty safe

I love the leveraged etf's ... if you don't have cash to short something, you can still get short exposure through double or triple short etf's. 


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: POB on November 14, 2013, 10:18:13 PM
Buy starbucks stock ..
its up 50% this year  :o

FNMA is up 1100%,cheaper to get into and should keep going up

http://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?symb=FNMA

It's gambling sometimes u win sometimes u lose. I personally like to grab blue chips in a bare market and go long. Prob safest way not to lose your $$$$$ and not have to watch it like a hawk all day. Draw back is takes years sometimes before you double or triple your investment. Still better than a savings account just depends on your risk tolerance. Stay diversified ;),write your plan on paper and stick to it,don't get emotional with the daily news stick to what you wrote down.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: POB on November 14, 2013, 10:20:29 PM
I love the leveraged etf's ... if you don't have cash to short something, you can still get short exposure through double or triple short etf's. 

What makes you pick a certain eft? What do you like to look for?


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: ESFitness on November 14, 2013, 10:32:01 PM
What makes you pick a certain eft? What do you like to look for?

PRICE! lol


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: syntaxmachine on November 14, 2013, 11:00:13 PM
and you're looking at capital gains rates... not ordinary income rates for taxes.

Not if you're trading, i.e., buying and selling such that you hold the assets less than a year. And that's what you suggested you would be doing in a previous comment.

P.S. You still haven't indicated how you would earn a 25% annualized return on 1milUSD over the long-term, thereby making you the greatest investor to have ever lived.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: phreak on November 15, 2013, 12:43:10 AM
Just sold the lambo, so I have some spare cash. How would a complete n00b get started? What books to read, what sites to frequent? And as I read above that it matters: No, I won't be spending every second of every day doing this. It basically needs to run itself once it has started up. ETFs then, any other options?


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: bigdumbbell on November 15, 2013, 03:33:07 AM
no, slums only.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: XFACTOR on November 15, 2013, 04:21:57 AM
buy two shares of Birkshire. The Oracle of Omaha won't let you down


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: kofo on November 15, 2013, 04:55:24 AM
is it rockey surgery or simple stuff to do with money you dont use anyway

Only insiders win in the stockmarket.

Middle class republicans always lose. Thank god they are always there to pay the bill, wether it is crashed real estate or worthless stocks.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: DanielPaul on November 15, 2013, 05:32:35 AM
Investing in the U.S. housing market, I hear it's pretty safe.   ;D


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: bigdumbbell on November 15, 2013, 05:41:38 AM
Investing in the U.S. housing market, I hear it's pretty safe.   ;D
Detroit has great bargains and deals !


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: Teutonic Knight on November 15, 2013, 01:19:59 PM
Detroit has great bargains and deals !


Detroit wins (with all problems) over Anabolichalos town.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 2Thick on November 17, 2013, 02:50:25 PM
is it rockey surgery or simple stuff to do with money you dont use anyway

I'd consult with an experienced professional at a reputable firm - preferably a large, publicly traded firm that is financially stable, transparent, SIPC insured (up to $500k in assets per client if the firm becomes insolvent)  and also insured against things like employee theft. There are many very good reasons why you don't ever hear about anyone being able to operate a Ponzi scheme while working at a large firm.

They will need to get quite a bit of personal info from you in order to make responsible specific recommendations and a financial plan for you. Your goals, time frames, risk tolerance, liquidity needs now and in the future, etc will form the basis of your own suitable plan.

And if for some reason you decide not to consult a professional and try to do it on your own, I'd recommend you spend many months or longer reading books about investing from those who have walked the walk. I'd also suggest you follow the markets closely to get an idea about how things work.

Don't day trade - trying to trade with the big institutions and their gazillion dollar automoated HF trading systems using your PC and a Scottrade account is a surefire way to lose everthing - whereas a diversified portfolio of quality investments is an almost certain way to go from a few bucks to many over the long term.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 2Thick on November 17, 2013, 02:52:02 PM
It's like casino, with the only exception that instead of putting money on red or black you're putting it on up or down.

I've def lost more with shares than I've won.

Proper risk management and patience takes much of the "gamble" out of investing.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: arce1988 on November 17, 2013, 02:54:29 PM
  Ask Walter. He is an economic genius. He is a business genius.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 2Thick on November 17, 2013, 03:04:57 PM
There are no safe investments, except keeping your money on your savings account, and there you're loosing money year after year as the inflation rate is even higher than the interest rate.

We're doomed.

"Safe" can be a hard term to define. If you mean absolute 100% principal protection at all times with absolutely no fluctuations in account value, you are limited to what is FDIC insured up to $250k. And then of course there's the matter of whether or not the FDIC itself is "safe".  ;D

And of course then you are actually losing $, because those savings, checking, and money market accounts and CDs are paying less than inflation. The bank is the only one making $ on this.

Various bonds will pay more, and the issuer will guarantee the repayment of principal at maturity. But the actual value of any bonds will fluctuate at least a little or more depending on numerous factors. There's always at least some risk of defalt, particularly with high yield corporates, emerging markets sovereign debt, etc.

And not all stocks are as risky as others. GE, Walmart, and Coke are much safer (more stable, less volatile) than names like DQ, PXD, NFLX, TSLA, etc.

And better managed mutual funds are even safer, and tend to outperform the overall markets by a wide margin.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 2Thick on November 17, 2013, 03:09:19 PM
I'm not familiar with the exact situation in the US, but in Europe it has become almost impossible to build up a fortune. The governments are trying their best to make it as hard for you as possible.

This is true. Here they're even wanting to limit the size you can GROW your retirement (tax advantaged) accounts like IRAs, 401ks, etc to. They actually want to take away incentive to invest too well. And of course there's always the threat of them raising taxes, decreasing contribution limits on tax-advantaged accounts, imposing more regulations, etc.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 2Thick on November 17, 2013, 03:12:05 PM
yes this is what everyone says as if it's a great secret wisdom...

however it sounds too good to be true



You can buy index funds cheaply, but in my experience a novice is better off investing in a handful of the better mutual funds. Some can learn to pick their own investments, but it takes time, patience, restraint, and the ability to keep one's emotions in check. If you would have just gone out and dumped your money into GM and Bear Stearns stock a half dozen years ago you would have lost it all.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: Andy Griffin on November 17, 2013, 03:15:16 PM
"shares" of what?

A person can do well in stocks, if he knows his investments, etc.  Most people buy based on headlines and take it raw without lube and not even getting the goddamn common courtesy of a reach-around.  They deserve what they get for being sheep.

Most great investments aren't listed in the newspaper or "Money" magazine.  


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: MAXX on November 17, 2013, 03:23:09 PM
it's great if you know how to predict the future  ::)


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 2Thick on November 17, 2013, 03:25:10 PM
I don't think an average investor should do any of this. You don't need to quit your job to turn a few bucks into many bucks with relatively little risk over time. Almost NO ONE should day or swing trade - it's FAR too risky for the small investor, and very risky overall.

And hurricanes, natural disasters, lawsuits, drug approvals, etc almost always get priced into the markets and the individual securities that may be affected by these things before or after market hours, so that the markets and the stocks open at the higher or lower price it is now valued at due to whatever is happening.

Announcements on FDA approvals, M&A, earnings, lawsuits, management changes, activist investor filings, etc almost always occur after the bell, or before it the next morning. Things like natural disasters that happen usually result in the markets opening lower than where they closed the day before.

These are "gaps" that usually occur on these things. If AAPL closes at 525 and shoots up to 555 after hours on positive earnings news, it will likely sell off a bit before and after the open the next morning. If you didn't own it already before the bell on that afternoon, you're taking a big gamble by buying it after the open the next morning - you'll likely see it sell off that next day. If you didn't already own it or at least own a call option, you're probably SOL on trying to get in on any further "pop".

Almost everyone is better off thinking much more longterm and investing with that in mind. At some point you realize that you want to retire wealthy at a farily young age - NOT brag to everybody how much $ you're making and spending while you're young.

if you're gonna invest, it has to be a full time job.

you wake up early and watch the pre-market report, and you trade all day.

all you're trying to do is ride on the coat-tails of the big market movers.

if a stock pop's 3 percent, you're not gonna get that full 3 percent, all you wanna do is catch that middle 1 percent.

the easy thing is all you have to do is pay attention... and use common sense (usually.. sometimes common sense doesn't work. lol).

there's a hurricane? get long oil and short airline's.

there's a natural disaster? short insurance co's with the greatest exposure.

co loses a lawsuit? short it and cover before it bounces back... then get long and hold it on the way back up for a quick pop.

pharma co gets a drug approved? that's good for a 5 point pop, all you wanna do is catch the middle 3 points.

ect, ect, ect....

if you don't pay attention you WILL lose your money, so in that sense, sure, it's like a casino... but when I go to the casino and jump on the roulette table, i'm not throwing chips over the table all willy nilly.... i'm looking at the odd's of the past numbers hitting and i'm playing those, and i'm spreading my chips... top 3rd, end 3rd, black, 4 corners, ect... you increase your chances of winning, but lower your overall winnings. i'd rather make a little for a long time, than make a lot once or twice.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: MAXX on November 17, 2013, 03:28:05 PM
"shares" of what?

A person can do well in stocks, if he knows his investments, etc.  Most people buy based on headlines and take it raw without lube and not even getting the goddamn common courtesy of a reach-around.  They deserve what they get for being sheep.

Most great investments aren't listed in the newspaper or "Money" magazine.  

agreed.

You could make good money if you're good at spotting new companys with great potential. You see they have some new revolutionizing product or something. But all that is longterm and risky. But if you have a good eye for it then why not invest.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 2Thick on November 17, 2013, 03:30:04 PM
Yes and I've been doing it a long time.  One has to understand each market segment and the drivers within each.  The feds QE program is driving up the market at present so it's not a good entry point.  It's best for new investors to index the market or market segments and dollar cost average over time so your buying at different market levels.

Start doing some reading and watching market wrap ups.  Going in based on market tips etc does not turn out well.  

Agreed. Dollar cost averaging is a good way to minimize risk. It's something that is built in with the regular 401k / IRA / SEP contribution smart investors should be doing for themselves with each paycheck. Buy more shares in investments with the same amount of $ when markets are down and less when they are up.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: MAXX on November 17, 2013, 03:32:07 PM
day trading means staring at charts on computerscreens all day long. have fun if that's what you like... fuck that


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: Bam-bam on November 17, 2013, 03:34:51 PM
lots of hedgefund traders and interest arbitragers in this thread.

on a side note, one the managers of maybe the best short term trading fund (SAC Capital) once got caught injecting test on its traders. if you have more test in your blood you take better higher risks apparently.

this thread is totally bbing related.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: Bam-bam on November 17, 2013, 03:35:58 PM
day trading means staring at charts on computerscreens all day long plus making your brokerage firm rich with the daily commissions have fun if that's what you like... fuck that

fixed.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 2Thick on November 17, 2013, 03:36:48 PM
Municipal Utility bonds. If the TVA goes under we can all reach between our legs and kiss our ass goodbye anyway….its over. Put a hundred bucks a month in there and come back in 30 years and odds are you can retire in style. I was foolish and did not do this until I was 55. 73 now and looking good thank you.

Munis as part of a balanced portfolio are great for tax free income.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 2Thick on November 17, 2013, 03:40:59 PM
What makes you pick a certain eft? What do you like to look for?

Be careful with ETFs - some are shit. I like to use names like Ishares, SPDR, etc for exposure to commodities - gold, silver, other metals, crude, nat gas, etc. Much less risky than betting on futures or tying up $ in the actual physical commodities. Diversify.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: Bam-bam on November 17, 2013, 03:42:41 PM
stocks are exactly like gambling. the easy money is when you trade against suckers. and if you dont know who the suckers are well...


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 2Thick on November 17, 2013, 03:43:59 PM
Not if you're trading, i.e., buying and selling such that you hold the assets less than a year. And that's what you suggested you would be doing in a previous comment.

P.S. You still haven't indicated how you would earn a 25% annualized return on 1milUSD over the long-term, thereby making you the greatest investor to have ever lived.

The very best are lucky to average over 20%. There are a few here and there who've apparently averaged over 30, and maybe 1 or 2 who've averaged around 40%. I think Cohen / SAC did, and of course they finally got busted for insider trading.

This guy is pretty good so far, but I'd like to see what he will do over several decades:

http://quotes.morningstar.com/fund/osfdx/f?t=OSFDX (http://quotes.morningstar.com/fund/osfdx/f?t=OSFDX)


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 2Thick on November 17, 2013, 03:45:25 PM
Just sold the lambo, so I have some spare cash. How would a complete n00b get started? What books to read, what sites to frequent? And as I read above that it matters: No, I won't be spending every second of every day doing this. It basically needs to run itself once it has started up. ETFs then, any other options?

Talk to several advisors at reputable firms in your area then go from there. Read some good books - Buffet, Icahn, Dalio, Soros, Peter Lynch, etc.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 2Thick on November 17, 2013, 03:47:51 PM
buy two shares of Birkshire. The Oracle of Omaha won't let you down

If he has $350k to invest, he'd be better off buying a little of Berkshire's B shares and diversifying the other $300k plus, rather than putting it all into two A shares and gambling on what might happen when Warren dies or steps down.

http://quotes.morningstar.com/stock/brk.b/s?t=BRK.B (http://quotes.morningstar.com/stock/brk.b/s?t=BRK.B)

I actually prefer Icahn's company these days:

http://quotes.morningstar.com/stock/iep/s?t=IEP (http://quotes.morningstar.com/stock/iep/s?t=IEP)


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: The Showstoppa on November 17, 2013, 03:50:55 PM
I bought a bunch of cheap stocks after the mkt bombed.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: jude2 on November 17, 2013, 04:28:30 PM
You don't have to quit your day job to play the stock money. Where will u get the money to invest. The way I do it is buy stuff I use and pay a bill to that I think is a good company. Example I make money off of Verizon, Nike, wife spends money at Michael Kohrs., I wear Polo so made money off Ralf Lauren, watch Netflix made great money off of them, kids have Iphones so I bought Apple at $79. You get the picture.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: The Onion on November 18, 2013, 12:03:16 AM
if you're gonna invest, it has to be a full time job.

you wake up early and watch the pre-market report, and you trade all day.

all you're trying to do is ride on the coat-tails of the big market movers.

if a stock pop's 3 percent, you're not gonna get that full 3 percent, all you wanna do is catch that middle 1 percent.

the easy thing is all you have to do is pay attention... and use common sense (usually.. sometimes common sense doesn't work. lol).

there's a hurricane? get long oil and short airline's.

there's a natural disaster? short insurance co's with the greatest exposure.

co loses a lawsuit? short it and cover before it bounces back... then get long and hold it on the way back up for a quick pop.

pharma co gets a drug approved? that's good for a 5 point pop, all you wanna do is catch the middle 3 points.

ect, ect, ect....

if you don't pay attention you WILL lose your money, so in that sense, sure, it's like a casino... but when I go to the casino and jump on the roulette table, i'm not throwing chips over the table all willy nilly.... i'm looking at the odd's of the past numbers hitting and i'm playing those, and i'm spreading my chips... top 3rd, end 3rd, black, 4 corners, ect... you increase your chances of winning, but lower your overall winnings. i'd rather make a little for a long time, than make a lot once or twice.
Terrible advice for a beginner and what you're describing is not investing, it's speculating. Starting with technical analysis is a really bad idea.

Investing doesn't have to be a full time job. I invest once a month when I get my salary (someone has already mentioned dollar cost averaging...) and I don't spend that much time reading up on each company - but I also have a somewhat simple investment strategy.

As a beginner I think a good way to start is by learning some basic fundamental analysis and start investing a fixed amount of money each month, focusing on well-known dividend paying stocks with a good history. This strategy will not make you a millionaire over night but it will give you a good foundation and greater insight of how the market works. It's also quite fun having a big, well-known company "working for you", and not the other way around. 

Right now may not be a good entry point but investing in well-known dividend paying companies like McDonalds, or whatever company whose business model you can understand and believe in long term, will most likely be a decent investment over time.

Having a dividend paying portfolio makes it easier to "not do stupid shit" in a declining market and this is, how silly it may sound, the real test. Investing is more often than not more about emotional stability than intelligence.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on November 18, 2013, 04:10:04 AM
I just bought a mix of shares and bonds.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: FitnessFrenzy on November 18, 2013, 04:11:18 AM
if you're gonna invest, it has to be a full time job.

you wake up early and watch the pre-market report, and you trade all day.

all you're trying to do is ride on the coat-tails of the big market movers.

if a stock pop's 3 percent, you're not gonna get that full 3 percent, all you wanna do is catch that middle 1 percent.

the easy thing is all you have to do is pay attention... and use common sense (usually.. sometimes common sense doesn't work. lol).

there's a hurricane? get long oil and short airline's.

there's a natural disaster? short insurance co's with the greatest exposure.

co loses a lawsuit? short it and cover before it bounces back... then get long and hold it on the way back up for a quick pop.

pharma co gets a drug approved? that's good for a 5 point pop, all you wanna do is catch the middle 3 points.

ect, ect, ect....

if you don't pay attention you WILL lose your money, so in that sense, sure, it's like a casino... but when I go to the casino and jump on the roulette table, i'm not throwing chips over the table all willy nilly.... i'm looking at the odd's of the past numbers hitting and i'm playing those, and i'm spreading my chips... top 3rd, end 3rd, black, 4 corners, ect... you increase your chances of winning, but lower your overall winnings. i'd rather make a little for a long time, than make a lot once or twice.


(http://www.boldjack.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/04-gordon-gekko-wall-street.jpg)


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 2Thick on November 18, 2013, 02:28:02 PM
stocks are exactly like gambling. the easy money is when you trade against suckers. and if you dont know who the suckers are well...

If you are just randomly picking out stocks to trade / speculate on based on emotions, "tips", headlines, etc without any sort of discipline or methodology, it is in fact a good way to make yourself a "sucker" who is "gambling". If you invest your $ wisely in a diversified portfolio of quality investments with a goal of longterm capital appreciation, capital preservation, etc, you'll likely do very well over time.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0LCRhveF4c 


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: Trav on November 18, 2013, 05:18:15 PM
Max-out employer contribution on 401K then Scottrade yourself some stocks in 3-5 companies that you don't mind keeping track on, say Sirius/XM or GE~ doing well for me these days~ maybe Ford or BOA.

If you'd rather set-and-forget, get some old-man dividend-paying stocks like Walmart, KO, Intel, Pfizer, etc., and have and auto-sell at -10 or -15%


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: gmflex on November 18, 2013, 05:24:52 PM
Most of you probably do not invest and are making things up. But this actually isn't bad advice. Schultz is an amazing CEO. Starbucks is far from done growing,with their expansion into the tea market and growth in china you should see this stock do well.

If any of you don't know his story check it out. Brilliant guy. Everyone told him this luxury coffee idea was terrible, couldn't find anybody in invest.






Uncle howie is a smart man / ceo

Starbucks bought into square ..
Wait till they go public  ;)
I'm going to make a killing  ;D


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: gmflex on November 18, 2013, 05:27:16 PM
FNMA is up 1100%,cheaper to get into and should keep going up

http://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?symb=FNMA

It's gambling sometimes u win sometimes u lose. I personally like to grab blue chips in a bare market and go long. Prob safest way not to lose your $$$$$ and not have to watch it like a hawk all day. Draw back is takes years sometimes before you double or triple your investment. Still better than a savings account just depends on your risk tolerance. Stay diversified ;),write your plan on paper and stick to it,don't get emotional with the daily news stick to what you wrote down.


My money is on starbucks.. I have $8 shares I'm on holding on for a rainy day..
Target price for starbucks is $92  ;)
it closed at around $80.50 today.. still room to make money


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: gmflex on November 18, 2013, 05:30:03 PM
buy two shares of Birkshire. The Oracle of Omaha won't let you down
:o
$175,000 a share


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: Tapeworm on November 18, 2013, 05:49:35 PM
No.  (Am I the only one left in the whole wide world?)  I reject the 'let your money grow while you sit on your butt' promise of investment in favor of reasoning that says: You get a certain return for time and effort invested in something with a given amount of risk.  I believe I'll get a more efficient return putting time and money into things I know a lot about rather than things about which I know very little.  So I have no 'financial vehicle' investments.

I also reject the often parroted advice to 'talk to a broker or financial adviser' if you don't know about investing.  As if he has no dog in the hunt.  Might as well ask a car salesman if buying a car is good move, or an accountant if doing your own books is a bad idea.



Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: Andy Griffin on November 18, 2013, 06:30:27 PM
No.  (Am I the only one left in the whole wide world?)  I reject the 'let your money grow while you sit on your butt' promise of investment in favor of reasoning that says: You get a certain return for time and effort invested in something with a given amount of risk.  I believe I'll get a more efficient return putting time and money into things I know a lot about rather than things about which I know very little.  So I have no 'financial vehicle' investments.

I also reject the often parroted advice to 'talk to a broker or financial adviser' if you don't know about investing.  As if he has no dog in the hunt.  Might as well ask a car salesman if buying a car is good move, or an accountant if doing your own books is a bad idea.



this


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: ProudVirgin69 on November 18, 2013, 06:48:33 PM
No.  (Am I the only one left in the whole wide world?)  I reject the 'let your money grow while you sit on your butt' promise of investment in favor of reasoning that says: You get a certain return for time and effort invested in something with a given amount of risk.  I believe I'll get a more efficient return putting time and money into things I know a lot about rather than things about which I know very little.  So I have no 'financial vehicle' investments.

I also reject the often parroted advice to 'talk to a broker or financial adviser' if you don't know about investing.  As if he has no dog in the hunt.  Might as well ask a car salesman if buying a car is good move, or an accountant if doing your own books is a bad idea.



Lol so where do you keep your money, under the mattress?

What's the annual ROI on that?  ;D


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: Tedim on November 18, 2013, 06:52:46 PM
No.  (Am I the only one left in the whole wide world?)  I reject the 'let your money grow while you sit on your butt' promise of investment in favor of reasoning that says: You get a certain return for time and effort invested in something with a given amount of risk.  I believe I'll get a more efficient return putting time and money into things I know a lot about rather than things about which I know very little.  So I have no 'financial vehicle' investments.

I also reject the often parroted advice to 'talk to a broker or financial adviser' if you don't know about investing.  As if he has no dog in the hunt.  Might as well ask a car salesman if buying a car is good move, or an accountant if doing your own books is a bad idea.



Agree 100%, I invest in my businesses real property and collectibles.....I'm a contrarian investor with the belief that if you can't hold it you don't own it. I try not to give my money to people who don't know me, don't care about me, and don't understand definition of moral hazard....


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: Tapeworm on November 18, 2013, 06:54:11 PM
Lol so where do you keep your money, under the mattress?

What's the annual ROI on that?  ;D

Jokes on you.  I don't have any money.

Anyway, I gotta get down to the pawnbrokers.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: Tedim on November 18, 2013, 06:56:22 PM
Jokes on you.  I don't have any money.

Anyway, I gotta get down to the pawnbrokers.

Go to my shop......at least a getbigger will profit from your misfortune ;D


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: webcake on November 18, 2013, 06:57:06 PM
Buy low, sell high, or something along those lines.

/end contribution.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: jude2 on November 18, 2013, 09:44:39 PM
:o
$175,000 a share

I have done very well with his B shares.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: anabolichalo on November 18, 2013, 09:46:20 PM
F investing. Spend it as soon as u make it. Otherwise, wife will get it in divorce. Don't think u can hide it either. Between the court, and her team of lawyers and forensic accountants, every dime you've made since high school will be accounted for. Not that I'm bitter or anything.
therefor don't marry fool


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: XFACTOR on November 19, 2013, 04:32:16 AM

My money is on starbucks.. I have $8 shares I'm on holding on for a rainy day..
Target price for starbucks is $92  ;)
it closed at around $80.50 today.. still room to make money

Starbucks will definitely climb.  By no means is it on the front end of it's cycle but $92-95 will happen.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: anabolichalo on November 19, 2013, 12:11:33 PM
did ronnie coleman buy shares?


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 2Thick on November 19, 2013, 12:54:48 PM
No.  (Am I the only one left in the whole wide world?)  I reject the 'let your money grow while you sit on your butt' promise of investment in favor of reasoning that says: You get a certain return for time and effort invested in something with a given amount of risk.  I believe I'll get a more efficient return putting time and money into things I know a lot about rather than things about which I know very little.  So I have no 'financial vehicle' investments.

I also reject the often parroted advice to 'talk to a broker or financial adviser' if you don't know about investing.  As if he has no dog in the hunt.  Might as well ask a car salesman if buying a car is good move, or an accountant if doing your own books is a bad idea.




1) 90% of the private companies out there will take 100% of your money. But do what you want.

2) I have been a licensed advisor / manager for many years. You are far, far better off consulting with one yourself than taking "tips" off internet hacks on a bodybuilding message board.  ;D

Today's advisors most often work off managed money, which means the better you do the better they do. It also means that they generally don't get a commission for every buy and sell, but rather mostly make a flat % on your total amount of assets. Investment advisors these days are also heavily regulated (at least those who don't strictly deal with accredited investors) and have a fiduciary responsibility to do right by their clients.

You can always do your own investing, but again I'd spend many, many hours doing research - not fishing for "tips" from strangers online, most of whom are in no way qualified to give financial advice. Even someone like myself who IS certainly qualified cannot make responsible recommendations without knowing a great deal about someone's unique situation.

As for comparing financial advisors to car salesmen, that makes no sense whatsoever. Maybe you're like many here who don't realize that cars, boats, etc are depreciating assets that DRAIN wealth. Just about anybody can buy a car, and anybody with decent income and a little cash to put down can get into a high end car that drains more and more of their monthly income they should be investing every month. But hey, some peole will be impressed and think they're cool, right?

It takes a little more financial savvy, common sense, and discipline to invest a little each month (on your own or with a pro) and build actual wealth over time. I know plenty of people who make 6 figures or more. Some invest wisely and eventually get very wealthy. Others spend every penny on high living, debt, and depreciating assets and have to work forever. I also know people who never made six figures who lived frugally and invested wisely and were able to retire with a 7 figrue next egg and no debt.

And if you don't think CPAs are actually useful to some people (people with money), you probably aren't the investing type anyway for one reason or another.  ;D


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: anabolichalo on November 19, 2013, 01:08:33 PM
^^^^^^


so you are saying it's best to get a financial advisor to invest your money?


i dont wanna be broke or in debt by 55 years old


believe it or not some ppl who earn 6 figures manage to be in debt and broke by 55

i personally know only one of them but there must be many


dude tells me i'm crazy for being so stingy, he says he may be in debt but still drinks expensive wine and drives a new BMW


i want to retain as much money from my income as possible and ideally make it increase by investment


i dont want BMW and expensive wine, i want to have a ton of money at one point so i dont need to work untill 70 yreas



Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 2Thick on November 19, 2013, 01:28:00 PM
I would definitely consider an advisor at a large, stable firm. Talk to several at several different firms.

Most people who are millionaires and beyond have invested at least some of their $ and will continue to do so. Many who are self-employed may invest mostly in their own businesses for quite a few years, but they eventually do decide to diversify in most cases. And they often decide to sell their businesses sooner or later, and they usually end up with a large nestegg they need to invest for stable income, growth for heirs, estate planning, tax reduction, etc.

And most people who are smart and rich or plan to be rich stick to what they know and hire professionals to do those things they don't know well and don't have the time and specific education and training for. The rich and the smart future rich HIRE accountants, lawyers, financial advisors, etc to do those things those people do well, while the rich / future rich spend their valuable time doing whatever it is they do well that actually makes them money - whether it's performing surgeries, drilling for oil, running their trucking companies or grocery stores or whatever...

 And "rich" typically refers to at the very least 7 figure net worth (assets - debt = net worth). Usually more.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: Tedim on November 19, 2013, 03:04:39 PM
I would definitely consider an advisor at a large, stable firm. Talk to several at several different firms.

Most people who are millionaires and beyond have invested at least some of their $ and will continue to do so. Many who are self-employed may invest mostly in their own businesses for quite a few years, but they eventually do decide to diversify in most cases. And they often decide to sell their businesses sooner or later, and they usually end up with a large nestegg they need to invest for stable income, growth for heirs, estate planning, tax reduction, etc.

And most people who are smart and rich or plan to be rich stick to what they know and hire professionals to do those things they don't know well and don't have the time and specific education and training for. The rich and the smart future rich HIRE accountants, lawyers, financial advisors, etc to do those things those people do well, while the rich / future rich spend their valuable time doing whatever it is they do well that actually makes them money - whether it's performing surgeries, drilling for oil, running their trucking companies or grocery stores or whatever...

 And "rich" typically refers to at the very least 7 figure net worth (assets - debt = net worth). Usually more.

what series license do you hold?


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 2Thick on November 19, 2013, 03:24:45 PM
what series license do you hold?

Over the years I've earned the 6, 7, 66, Life & Health / variable contracts; and several options, commodities, and supervisory level licenses.

I spent years at a large bank and a large firm in the past. Now I run my own little show and strictly deal with accredited investors these days - FAR fewer headaches and more $ made per client. It's much easier to have 30 clients with an average asset level of $5 mil than it is to have 150 clients with an average asset level of $1 mil - and those under a mil and especially under a quarter mil will take up more of your time and be bigger pains in the asses than those with millions or more, believe it or not. 


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: Tedim on November 19, 2013, 03:56:44 PM
Over the years I've earned the 6, 7, 66, Life & Health / variable contracts; and several options, commodities, and supervisory level licenses.

I spent years at a large bank and a large firm in the past. Now I run my own little show and strictly deal with accredited investors these days - FAR fewer headaches and more $ made per client. It's much easier to have 30 clients with an average asset level of $5 mil than it is to have 150 clients with an average asset level of $1 mil - and those under a mil and especially under a quarter mil will take up more of your time and be bigger pains in the asses than those with millions or more, believe it or not. 

are you a BD?......


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: Tapeworm on November 20, 2013, 06:26:39 AM

1) 90% of the private companies out there will take 100% of your money. But do what you want.

2) I have been a licensed advisor / manager for many years. You are far, far better off consulting with one yourself than taking "tips" off internet hacks on a bodybuilding message board.  ;D

Today's advisors most often work off managed money, which means the better you do the better they do. It also means that they generally don't get a commission for every buy and sell, but rather mostly make a flat % on your total amount of assets. Investment advisors these days are also heavily regulated (at least those who don't strictly deal with accredited investors) and have a fiduciary responsibility to do right by their clients.

You can always do your own investing, but again I'd spend many, many hours doing research - not fishing for "tips" from strangers online, most of whom are in no way qualified to give financial advice. Even someone like myself who IS certainly qualified cannot make responsible recommendations without knowing a great deal about someone's unique situation.

As for comparing financial advisors to car salesmen, that makes no sense whatsoever. Maybe you're like many here who don't realize that cars, boats, etc are depreciating assets that DRAIN wealth. Just about anybody can buy a car, and anybody with decent income and a little cash to put down can get into a high end car that drains more and more of their monthly income they should be investing every month. But hey, some peole will be impressed and think they're cool, right?

It takes a little more financial savvy, common sense, and discipline to invest a little each month (on your own or with a pro) and build actual wealth over time. I know plenty of people who make 6 figures or more. Some invest wisely and eventually get very wealthy. Others spend every penny on high living, debt, and depreciating assets and have to work forever. I also know people who never made six figures who lived frugally and invested wisely and were able to retire with a 7 figrue next egg and no debt.

And if you don't think CPAs are actually useful to some people (people with money), you probably aren't the investing type anyway for one reason or another.  ;D

I just don't see a respectable return coming from common investments.  Also, I'm too crappy a businessman to know how much operating capital I need to retain so I just retain all of it.  I won't touch a bank.  As Big Money Guys go, I'm not a blip, so can't comment.  I'm just doing my thing as a small operator, man.  

An Australian CPA's rate is superduper unjustified given the work required by a guy like me.  I know because I do it.  The quarterlies give you the yearly, so....  There's plently of pirates about and not all of 'em wear an eye patch.  Takes 'un to know 'un.  Yar.



Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 2Thick on November 20, 2013, 03:15:10 PM
are you a BD?......

Private investment fund (well under 100 investors, all accredited).


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: Gregzs on November 22, 2013, 05:30:38 AM
http://compliancex.com/so-have-you-heard-this-one-a-knucklehead-broker-walks-into-a-trading-room-and-places-an-order-of-1625000-shares-of-apple-instead-1625-shares/?utm_source=CompliancEX+Newsletter+November+21%2C+2013&utm_campaign=Got+a+Swiss+Bank+Account%3F&utm_medium=email

So, Have You Heard This One; A Knucklehead Broker Walks Into A Trading Room…

Last year David Miller, a securities trader at the boutique (a polite term for small and not well known) brokerage firm, Rochdale Securities, saw an opportunity to make a quick buck.

This was about the time that everyone realized Steve Jobs was really dead and not coming back and people noticed Samsung actually made a smart phone that was just as good as an iPhone.

Apple stock was imploding. Dave Miller however expected a surprise positive earnings report which he thought would give the stock a pop.

He took a supposed client’s order for 1,625 shares to the trading room but purposefully purchased 1,625,000 shares instead (moving the decimal point over three digits gave him the out to say, “Ooops, I made a mistake. Silly me, I put the decimal in the wrong place.”). If your math is not that good, this is a billion dollar trade made at little Rochdale, not Goldman or JP Morgan or some hedge fund.

Miller figured Apple stock would rise, he would use the firm’s capital to back the trade, pay his client the profits on 1,625 shares and keep the rest. Hamptons summer house rental and Porsche payment in the bag!

Well, unfortunately Apple’s earnings disappointed the street and Mr. Miller.

The stock went down and he lost $30 million dollars on the fake trade.

Rochdale Securities didn’t have $30 million. So, the punch line; the firm closed its doors, laid off 40 people and Miller was just sentenced to 30 months in prison.

In case you were wondering what happened to the stock, at the time of the trade Apple was at $601.25, it is now trading at $515.00. He would still be a loser.



Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 2Thick on November 22, 2013, 12:48:08 PM
http://compliancex.com/so-have-you-heard-this-one-a-knucklehead-broker-walks-into-a-trading-room-and-places-an-order-of-1625000-shares-of-apple-instead-1625-shares/?utm_source=CompliancEX+Newsletter+November+21%2C+2013&utm_campaign=Got+a+Swiss+Bank+Account%3F&utm_medium=email

So, Have You Heard This One; A Knucklehead Broker Walks Into A Trading Room…

Last year David Miller, a securities trader at the boutique (a polite term for small and not well known) brokerage firm, Rochdale Securities, saw an opportunity to make a quick buck.

This was about the time that everyone realized Steve Jobs was really dead and not coming back and people noticed Samsung actually made a smart phone that was just as good as an iPhone.

Apple stock was imploding. Dave Miller however expected a surprise positive earnings report which he thought would give the stock a pop.

He took a supposed client’s order for 1,625 shares to the trading room but purposefully purchased 1,625,000 shares instead (moving the decimal point over three digits gave him the out to say, “Ooops, I made a mistake. Silly me, I put the decimal in the wrong place.”). If your math is not that good, this is a billion dollar trade made at little Rochdale, not Goldman or JP Morgan or some hedge fund.

Miller figured Apple stock would rise, he would use the firm’s capital to back the trade, pay his client the profits on 1,625 shares and keep the rest. Hamptons summer house rental and Porsche payment in the bag!

Well, unfortunately Apple’s earnings disappointed the street and Mr. Miller.

The stock went down and he lost $30 million dollars on the fake trade.

Rochdale Securities didn’t have $30 million. So, the punch line; the firm closed its doors, laid off 40 people and Miller was just sentenced to 30 months in prison.

In case you were wondering what happened to the stock, at the time of the trade Apple was at $601.25, it is now trading at $515.00. He would still be a loser.





Perfect example of why most should stick to advisors at larger firms. Far less likely to happen there, caught much quicker, and the multi-billion dollar firm will have no choice but to make good on the loss due to the unauthorized trade, fraud / theft, etc.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 24KT on November 24, 2013, 06:10:44 AM
There are no safe investments, except keeping your money on your savings account, and there you're loosing money year after year as the inflation rate is even higher than the interest rate.

We're doomed.

The only safe investment is an investment in YOURSELF!
Be willing to do your homework, and start with something in an area you know about..

And as for keeping your money in your savings account... Good Luck!

Ask bank account holders in Cyprus how well that worked out for them?

The risks are far greater than the hidden stealth tax of inflation. Look at the numbers in the FDICs insurance account vs. the volume of accounts those funds would be required to cover during an inevitable economic reset or systemic failure.. Roughly $33 Billion to cover how many $TRILLIONS in deposits?  :o
Someone will definitely be coming up short!

 If you're in the USA, Canada, Australia, or in any of the G8's you might want to consider the bail-in templates already codified into law.

I don't believe in paper derivatives at all. IMO, they're really nothing more than paper.

In this economic environment of rigged markets, government interventionism, HFT, front-running etc., all the basic rules have essentially been thrown out the window. I'd sooner stab myself in the eye with a fork than have to speculate in this market.  The one thing I know for sure is the current system is irretrievably broken. The economy is brain dead, and is existing on artificial life support, and resuscitation is mathematically impossible. Therefore, I prefer to protect & preserve the value of my money, and my labour, by trading the fiat money substitute for real money, as a form of insurance. In my eyes, it's not a matter of IF, but rather a matter of WHEN!


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 24KT on November 24, 2013, 06:37:38 AM
"shares" of what?

A person can do well in stocks, if he knows his investments, etc.  Most people buy based on headlines and take it raw without lube and not even getting the goddamn common courtesy of a reach-around.  They deserve what they get for being sheep.

LOL! I'm sorry for laughing, ...but you really have a way with words. It's so true. Just the other day people were all abuzz about the twitter IPO, but Alessio Rastani was telling me it was an absolute joke. He'd crunched the numbers, and Twitter has NEVER, EVER turned a profit.

Quote
Most great investments aren't listed in the newspaper or "Money" magazine.  


True. I remember years ago Oprah who had made a killing on Reebok, was asked how she knew to invest in the company. Her response was, when she was visiting a film set. She noticed a member of the film crew wearing these sneakers that she'd never really seen before, then she noticed a few other members were wearing the same kind of sneakers. Upon closer examination, she realized that just about all the members of the crew were wearing Reeboks. Knowing these guys are often required to be on their feet sometimes as long as 12 - 14 hours a day... this made her think ... hmmmm... she decided to buy a pair for herself to see what was so special about them. After wearing them for the first time, she knew she had to invest in the company.

While I don't believe in paper derivatives of any sort these days, as a general rule, I personally can't wait for Dave Lampert to issue an IPO. Following Oprah's lead with Reebok, I might actually be tempted to snap up some equity in his company  :P


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 24KT on November 24, 2013, 06:40:18 AM
No.  (Am I the only one left in the whole wide world?)  I reject the 'let your money grow while you sit on your butt' promise of investment in favor of reasoning that says: You get a certain return for time and effort invested in something with a given amount of risk.  I believe I'll get a more efficient return putting time and money into things I know a lot about rather than things about which I know very little.  So I have no 'financial vehicle' investments.

I also reject the often parroted advice to 'talk to a broker or financial adviser' if you don't know about investing.  As if he has no dog in the hunt.  Might as well ask a car salesman if buying a car is good move, or an accountant if doing your own books is a bad idea.


LOL! No, you're not the only one.  :)


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 2Thick on November 24, 2013, 01:34:03 PM
I typically have anywhere from 10-25% of my $ in gold (not actual physical gold). I see it as a very good (perhaps even essential) longterm investment.

HOWEVER, it can be VERY volatile. Investors who cannot tolerate pretty wide potential swings in the value of their accounts in the short and mid term should be more cautious. Several of the very best mutual funds invest in gold, and these are generally better ways for the average investor who is not overly aggressive to have exposure, along with ETFs as a small part of a diversified portfolio.

http://etfs.morningstar.com/quote?t=GLD (http://etfs.morningstar.com/quote?t=GLD)


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 24KT on November 24, 2013, 02:35:04 PM
I typically have anywhere from 10-25% of my $ in gold (not actual physical gold). I see it as a very good (perhaps even essential) longterm investment.

HOWEVER, it can be VERY volatile. Investors who cannot tolerate pretty wide potential swings in the value of their accounts in the short and mid term should be more cautious. Several of the very best mutual funds invest in gold, and these are generally better ways for the average investor who is not overly aggressive to have exposure, along with ETFs as a small part of a diversified portfolio.

http://etfs.morningstar.com/quote?t=GLD (http://etfs.morningstar.com/quote?t=GLD)

I'm not into volatility, forced liquidation, or margin calls.
That's why I save in physical gold instead of the paper derivative.
I'm long gold. If nothing happens (hardly likely)... the worst case scenario is that I have a physical asset that can be willed to future generation.. I have access to a system that not only produces a residual income cash flow, but also acquires the physical gold for me at no out of pocket cost.
I'm a happy camper.  :D


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 2Thick on November 24, 2013, 03:10:56 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PXVG2CKUcb0

I'm inclined to agree with Dalio. I think Buffett is either overly optimistic at times, or else a little dishonest or too sheltered these days.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 24KT on November 25, 2013, 11:35:44 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PXVG2CKUcb0

I'm inclined to agree with Dalio. I think Buffett is either overly optimistic at times, or else a little dishonest or too sheltered these days.

I am in total agreement with what he said. As for Buffett, I'm inclined to believe it is a bit of both.
Buffett is brilliant when it comes to deploying money substitutes, but his history with REAL money is somewhat checkered.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: Gregzs on December 02, 2013, 04:49:25 PM
http://hedgefundsx.com/uncategorized/whistle-blower-tries-to-shed-light-on-private-equity-transaction-fees/?utm_source=CompliancEX+Newsletter+December+2%2C+2013&utm_campaign=Got+a+Swiss+Bank+Account%3F&utm_medium=email

Whistle-blower tries to shed light on private-equity transaction fees

In 2007, Texas-based utility TXU agreed to the largest leveraged buyout ever: a $48 billion sale to Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co., TPG and Goldman Sachs. Since then, however, the renamed Energy Future Holdings has piled up $18 billion in losses, while revenue has dropped by nearly half. Buckling under a monstrous $44 billion debt load dating back to the LBO, the company is negotiating with creditors in an effort to fend off bankruptcy.

KKR, TPG and Goldman all face substantial losses if Energy Future succumbs to bankruptcy. Still, they already have a little something to help numb their pain: Back when the deal closed, KKR and TPG each pocketed a $107 million “transaction fee,” according to a regulatory filing. Goldman got $80 million.

These nifty payouts are an important reason why private equity is perhaps the most lucrative game on Wall Street. In the past 10 years, private-equity firms have collected $2 billion in transaction fees, which essentially are bonuses the firms take for conducting their business of buying, managing and selling companies.

Source:  Crain’s New York Business


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: pedro01 on December 03, 2013, 05:14:41 AM
The markets are a casino.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gnMKBfIWCg8


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: anabolichalo on December 03, 2013, 07:19:35 AM
The markets are a casino.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gnMKBfIWCg8
this video is not about what i mean

i mean invest in a company that should grow for years


not selling and buying 100 times a day


 ???


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: pedro01 on December 03, 2013, 08:11:07 AM
this video is not about what i mean

i mean invest in a company that should grow for years


not selling and buying 100 times a day


 ???

Doesn't matter - it's all the same thing.

It's a casino.

The point is you want to start off long term trading and the nature of long term trading is that it takes a long time to get experienced because you only experience a few trades per year.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: anabolichalo on December 03, 2013, 08:20:58 AM
Doesn't matter - it's all the same thing.

It's a casino.

The point is you want to start off long term trading and the nature of long term trading is that it takes a long time to get experienced because you only experience a few trades per year.
if it's a casino what does experience matter

reasoning is flawed


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: pedro01 on December 03, 2013, 08:37:25 AM
if it's a casino what does experience matter

reasoning is flawed

Not at all - you just don't know the game.

Start here: http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL6EF60E1027E1A10B&feature=plcp


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 2Thick on December 03, 2013, 01:36:42 PM
Doesn't matter - it's all the same thing.

It's a casino.

The point is you want to start off long term trading and the nature of long term trading is that it takes a long time to get experienced because you only experience a few trades per year.

I know the game very, very well. I've done it for a living for many years.

Day trading IS very much gambling. It's very risky, and should not be done by almost anyone. I did it for a while and realized that it's very foolish for a small investor to try to day trade from home or a small office with a PC and a Scottrade account.

The vast majority of the world's most successful investors didn't and don't day trade. Any "trading" their funds may engage in is very limited in most cases, carefully hedged against any significant losses in numerous ways, and mostly done with very sophisticated automated models working through tons of data at lightening speeds that the average investors and the brightest individual human minds cannot hope to duplicate.

Short term trading is far riskier than sensible investing. I can tell you with a pretty high level of confidence that gold, oil, and the stocks of most solid or highly promising companies will be higher than they are now 10 years from now - probably significantly higher in most cases. I cannot say what will happen tomorrow or next week with any certainty whatsoever.

Another very common mistake novices make is to dump everything into one or 2 companies or commodities or whatever. Extremely risky.


But to say that day trading is "the same" as the sensible investing that makes middle class working stiffs into millionaires and most self made investment icons into billionaires over time is totally incorrect.

There are many ways to MANAGE (minimize) risk. The single best way most can do this for themselves is to invest with a professional who will put their $ into a diversified portfolio of quality investments and be patient.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 2Thick on December 03, 2013, 01:43:41 PM
Those $187 million in fees were paid for the work the firms did on the deal.

As for the failed company, that's another reason why diversification is so important. As long as nothing illegal was going on, you're generally SOL on such an investment. It sucks, but that's a textbook example of why it's important to spread your $ around. Companies fail from time to time, and I'd personally never want to permanently lose anymore than 2-5% of my total portfolio value on any one investment.

http://hedgefundsx.com/uncategorized/whistle-blower-tries-to-shed-light-on-private-equity-transaction-fees/?utm_source=CompliancEX+Newsletter+December+2%2C+2013&utm_campaign=Got+a+Swiss+Bank+Account%3F&utm_medium=email

Whistle-blower tries to shed light on private-equity transaction fees

In 2007, Texas-based utility TXU agreed to the largest leveraged buyout ever: a $48 billion sale to Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co., TPG and Goldman Sachs. Since then, however, the renamed Energy Future Holdings has piled up $18 billion in losses, while revenue has dropped by nearly half. Buckling under a monstrous $44 billion debt load dating back to the LBO, the company is negotiating with creditors in an effort to fend off bankruptcy.

KKR, TPG and Goldman all face substantial losses if Energy Future succumbs to bankruptcy. Still, they already have a little something to help numb their pain: Back when the deal closed, KKR and TPG each pocketed a $107 million “transaction fee,” according to a regulatory filing. Goldman got $80 million.

These nifty payouts are an important reason why private equity is perhaps the most lucrative game on Wall Street. In the past 10 years, private-equity firms have collected $2 billion in transaction fees, which essentially are bonuses the firms take for conducting their business of buying, managing and selling companies.

Source:  Crain’s New York Business



Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: pedro01 on December 03, 2013, 03:19:31 PM
I know the game very, very well. I've done it for a living for many years.

Day trading IS very much gambling. It's very risky, and should not be done by almost anyone. I did it for a while and realized that it's very foolish for a small investor to try to day trade from home or a small office with a PC and a Scottrade account.

The vast majority of the world's most successful investors didn't and don't day trade. Any "trading" their funds may engage in is very limited in most cases, carefully hedged against any significant losses in numerous ways, and mostly done with very sophisticated automated models working through tons of data at lightening speeds that the average investors and the brightest individual human minds cannot hope to duplicate.

Short term trading is far riskier than sensible investing. I can tell you with a pretty high level of confidence that gold, oil, and the stocks of most solid or highly promising companies will be higher than they are now 10 years from now - probably significantly higher in most cases. I cannot say what will happen tomorrow or next week with any certainty whatsoever.

Another very common mistake novices make is to dump everything into one or 2 companies or commodities or whatever. Extremely risky.


But to say that day trading is "the same" as the sensible investing that makes middle class working stiffs into millionaires and most self made investment icons into billionaires over time is totally incorrect.

There are many ways to MANAGE (minimize) risk. The single best way most can do this for themselves is to invest with a professional who will put their $ into a diversified portfolio of quality investments and be patient.

And that is what everyone in this blood sucking industry wants you to believe. That is the single worst thing you can do as an investor.

The diversified portfolio is a lame duck. 'pros' that invest your money get paid regardless of whether they make a positive return for you or not.

Here's the S&P500 - something a professional portfolio manager will probably allocate a portion of your funds to (or some other index, doesn't matter).

(http://i39.photobucket.com/albums/e156/tb9pdvs/03-12-201318-01-08_zps6daa58e8.png)

That blue line goes through 2000, 2007 then 2013. That is 13 years of going absolutely nowhere.

As for solid companies being higher in 10 years, I wonder if General Electric is solid enough and I wonder if a professional portfolio manager would have been telling you this story about GE 10 years ago.

'Cause this is how well they did in the past 13 years.

(http://i39.photobucket.com/albums/e156/tb9pdvs/03-12-201318-04-01_zps45545a9a.png)

And this isn't even cherry picked, it's the first 2 things that came to mind.

Your average professional portfolio manager will lose you 20% and call you up explaining that the 'benchmark' lost 25% and that you should really thank them for their work.

All trading is gambling, take a look at this years top performing funds. They will be next years worse performing funds. These managers are EXTREMELY average. If they were any good, they'd be working for a hedge fund. They cannot time the markets any better than your average Joe. All they do is collect fees from you and put your money into a lackluster portfolio that will just as likely be exactly where it is today in 10 years time.

Now as for this "mostly done with very sophisticated automated models working through tons of data at lightening speeds that the average investors and the brightest individual human minds cannot hope to duplicate

This is fear mongering. Of course HFTs and Algorithmic trading exists but they almost exclusively trade spreads - or monopolize a stock trading the bid/offer. They are the latest in a long line of "boogeymen" aka excuses as to why you lost money. Mostly algorithmic trading has little directional impact on the markets.

Just as long term traders might see day traders as 'scummy' for riding their coat-tails, so day traders look at HFTs as 'unfair' - it's just part of the game.

Fact is if you looked at a shopping mall and tried to predict where every person would be in 15 minutes time, it would be an impossible task. Then you go and ring a fire alarm and it would become a lot easier - same with trading. That is why an understanding of Game Theory helps you to become a better trader no matter what the time frame - because the markets are human driven and that makes them more emotional than mathematical.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 2Thick on December 03, 2013, 03:24:40 PM
Dude, I know this stuff REALLY well.

Not all companies are the same by a long shot.

Not all stocks are the same by a long shot.

I'm really big on fundamental micro and macro analysis.

$100k invested for 30 years at 12% will yield you roughly $3 mil - without adding anything more over those 30 years.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: anabolichalo on December 03, 2013, 03:29:16 PM
Dude, I know this stuff REALLY well.

Not all companies are the same by a long shot.

Not all stocks are the same by a long shot.

I'm really big on fundamental micro and macro analysis.

$100k invested for 30 years at 12% will yield you roughly $3 mil - without adding anything more over those 30 years.
what is the simplest thing i can do with my savings to get profit out of it that is greater than a savings account


can't i just buy a bunch of shares of companies that keep growing and succeeding? and leave the money there for a few yrs?



is it really as complicated as this thread makes it out to be


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: pedro01 on December 03, 2013, 09:50:06 PM
Dude, I know this stuff REALLY well.

Not all companies are the same by a long shot.

Not all stocks are the same by a long shot.

I'm really big on fundamental micro and macro analysis.

$100k invested for 30 years at 12% will yield you roughly $3 mil - without adding anything more over those 30 years.

I know this stuff real well too - I'm in the industry myself.

Now, just show me the fund manager that's going to do 12% for 30 years. Should be easy to find right - maybe post up some links of all the guys with a 30yr 12% track record of a fund that is available to the general public.

Fact is fund managers do not get paid as a percentage of return, they get paid whether they make money or not. The fund makes money from fees. The amount of fees collected is how they rate their success.

On the other hand, hedge funds only make money based on the returns. That's why  mutual funds employ average "professionals" that return results that deviate little from benchmarks and why Hedge funds get all the good guys.

Of course, the downside of hedge funds is if they have a bad year, then might be looking at multiple years to make back the losses and to start earning again. So that's why they tend to fold funds after a bad run.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: Primemuscle on December 03, 2013, 10:05:11 PM
is it rockey surgery or simple stuff to do with money you dont use anyway

Like all gambles, it sometimes pays off and sometimes not. If you have nerves of steel and money to lose, you can do great.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 2Thick on December 04, 2013, 11:17:39 AM
I thought you said you were in Chinese manufacturing or something?

I don't invest in index funds, and I've never put client $ into them either. They are better than nothing, of course.

Keep in mind that when you look at snapshots of past market performance that times like late 2007 to early 2009 will seriously skew things if you're looking at just a few years. As will the Great Depression era, years like 1974, and the time around the tech crash over a decade ago.

If you are in the biz, you should know that day trading and longterm investing are not the same thing by a long shot, that day trading is very, very risky, and that the day trading highway to hell is littered with the carcasses of "traders" who went broke.

And you should also know that investing is largely a passive activity - most time devoted to it consists of various forms of research - NOT constantly buying and selling all day every day. For a small investor, the transaction costs alone will eventually eat them alive even if the realized losses don't. Your comment that referred to someone who is a novice who invests in something longterm as still being a novice after a year or whatever because they only executed that one trade is not a comment one who is in the biz would ever fathom, and I find it downright bizarre.

Have you read my previous posts in this thread? Did you catch that Ray Dalio clip where he talked about the importance of diversification, etc?

As for the automated high speed traders, have you not heard of Jim Simon or David Shaw?

http://www.deshaw.com/ (http://www.deshaw.com/)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renaissance_Technologies (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renaissance_Technologies)


Your assertion that last year's top fund managers are this year's losers is also easily disproven. I'll link some in a minute. And as far as the 12% over 30 years, it certainly is doable.

One thing I can pretty much guarantee just about anybody who tries to day trade with that $100k rather than invest it wisely for 30 years is that it will eventually amount to $0 long before 30 years are up - it's just a matter of how soon for just about anyone who tries.

As for fees, if you were in the biz you'd understand that people get what they pay for generally.

I know this stuff real well too - I'm in the industry myself.

Now, just show me the fund manager that's going to do 12% for 30 years. Should be easy to find right - maybe post up some links of all the guys with a 30yr 12% track record of a fund that is available to the general public.

Fact is fund managers do not get paid as a percentage of return, they get paid whether they make money or not. The fund makes money from fees. The amount of fees collected is how they rate their success.

On the other hand, hedge funds only make money based on the returns. That's why  mutual funds employ average "professionals" that return results that deviate little from benchmarks and why Hedge funds get all the good guys.

Of course, the downside of hedge funds is if they have a bad year, then might be looking at multiple years to make back the losses and to start earning again. So that's why they tend to fold funds after a bad run.



Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 2Thick on December 04, 2013, 11:22:01 AM
what is the simplest thing i can do with my savings to get profit out of it that is greater than a savings account


can't i just buy a bunch of shares of companies that keep growing and succeeding? and leave the money there for a few yrs?



is it really as complicated as this thread makes it out to be


I'll try to address your points AND Pedros in one more post here by giving a little insight into my own investment style. This is NOT meant as definite investment advice, but some of my ideas I have in my retirement account may be good for you to ask your own financial advisor about - like if some of the funds I mention or other investments might be appropriate for your situation...


I invest mainly on macro and micro fundamentals. I change things in my portfolio when I see these things changing. Macro analysis could take forever to explain, but micro analysis is not quite as broad. I have a main investment account that is more aggressive, and a retirement account that is more moderate.
 
 
In my main account, I mainly look for value or growth or a combination when it comes to stocks and other investments. Value investments are often the more stable companies that have been around for a while that are currently underpriced. I tend to sell them off as they become less of a value and may get out of them completely if they become no longer a value or if there are other fundamental changes that make them no longer attractive to me for the time being. Low P/E with increasing EPS, along with low price / sales and price / book values tend to be good value characteristics. But there should also be other attractive characteristics - higher than average margins, return on equity, revenue and income growth, etc. And EPS should not be made artificially high because the company is doing things like buying back shares (reducing the amount of shares outstanding to make the earnings ratio appear more favorable).
 
As for growth companies, they can be quite volatile and may often (certainly not always) take some time to see the big gains. But sometimes they can really explode. Growth companies will typically have much higher than average revenue growth, and are often (not always) more small to mid cap, whereas most of my value picks tend to be larger cap. Lower than average PEG, and higher than average EPS growth and margin acceleration are also good things. High ROE and low p/s and p/b don't hurt either.
 
Strong cash flow and limited debt are also always an attractive quality in a stock.
 
Over a year ago, I was long over 200 stock and ADR holdings from around the globe in my investment account. I've trimmed that down to a couple dozen long stock positions and decreasing since Nov '12. Since then, I have been holding much more cash, more gold (SPDR ETF "GLD", at least 10% of portfolio), crude & a little silver, nat gas, and VIX in ETFs. And at times also smaller amounts of a few other metals and a bit of diversified agricultural exposure as well. Also 20% short the S&P 500 index via a Proshares ETF. I have made very good gains on my limited # of long stock holdings in the past year - far more than the broad markets. But I have also been down low double digits on the S&P 500 index short and on my commodities portfolio


 I will also use options here and there in my main account - buying puts and calls to protect the downside or even to speculate a bit, and also perhaps selling covered calls on a less volatile stock I already own at a lower price that I don't think will move up anytime soon.
 
I mentioned this mutual fund in a previous post a week or so ago. He's fairly new to the game, so I haven't put a huge amount of $ in this yet. I have a little of this in my main account as well. To say he's done outstanding in the few years he's been around is an understatement. He's averaged 55% over the last 5 years, and was down less than 10% in '08 when the markets were down nearly 40%. This is just one way to kick the broad market's ass:
 
http://quotes.morningstar.com/fund/f?t=OSFDX&region=USA
 
 
 
 
 
I'm more long term "strategic" and somewhat more conservative in my retirement account. Mainly mutual funds, along with some cash (quite a bit right now) and commodity exposure. These are pretty much my "all weather" core holdings I tend to keep at least some of in my retirement account. These funds are very well managed, largely unrestrained, and tend to get pretty defensive when they see trouble ahead. The risk-adjusted returns on these have been outstanding, and all were down far less than the overall markets were in late '07 to early '09. The Dow and S&P 500 were both down 37-38% in '08, while most of these funds were down only single digits or low double digits. And they have killed the broad markets over time:
 
http://quotes.morningstar.com/fund/f?t=BRUFX&region=USA
 
http://quotes.morningstar.com/fund/f?t=SGIIX&region=USA
 
http://quotes.morningstar.com/fund/f?t=YAFFX&region=USA
 
http://quotes.morningstar.com/fund/f?t=MALOX&region=USA
 
http://quotes.morningstar.com/fund/f?t=FPACX&region=USA
 
http://quotes.morningstar.com/fund/f?t=PRPFX&region=USA
 
 
My 3 personal favorite bond funds I also have a little of in the retirement account . Notice the equity-like low double digit returns. I have very little exposure to bonds these days, however - mainly due to the interest rate environment.
 
http://quotes.morningstar.com/fund/f?t=FEHIX&region=USA
 
http://quotes.morningstar.com/fund/f?t=TGBAX&region=USA
 
http://quotes.morningstar.com/fund/f?t=TGEIX&region=USA
 
 
 
And this is good in a modest amount for some diversified energy exposure and some added alpha to the portfolio. Pretty volatile of course:
 
http://quotes.morningstar.com/fund/f?t=VGELX&region=USA
 
 
Ditto for a good way to get some diversified global real estate exposure without the liquidity, maintenance, tenant, etc issues and other problems that can arise in investing directly in real estate buys and sells:
 
http://quotes.morningstar.com/fund/f?t=PURZX&region=USA
 
I also like a little exposure to gold in this account as well. And when I'm more optimistic on a macro level, I'll also have a fair amount of small and mid cap fund exposure in my retirement account.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 2Thick on December 04, 2013, 11:43:02 AM
And there are more aggressive funds I will invest in in my retirement account when I'm feeling more optimistic on a macro level - small and mid caps, emerging markets, etc. Some of those better funds have averaged 15%+ over the years, which is impressive when you consider most of them were down 30, 40, or more % in '08. But those funds are more volatile of course.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 2Thick on December 04, 2013, 12:08:26 PM
Something else I've done fairly recently is buy a few put options here and there on a handful of high beta names that appear to be overvalued. Puts are less risky than an actual short position and options in general tie up far less capital than actually owning or shorting actual shares of stock. This is another advanced technique that novices shouldn't worry about.

Regarding day trading, it seems as though there are "traders" everywhere who claim to be making consistent realized gains day in and day out for years on in of $100, $200 or more pretty much every day. And these gains come on accounts that are usually said to be in the $10k-20k range (nevermind the fact that federal regulations prohibit more than 3 day trades a week on accounts with less than $25k).

These traders always seem to know when to go short, when to buy, when to sell, etc all day every day. And they're apparently able to do this through a very slow discount broker middleman - the traders think THEY'RE the middleman, but the discount broker actually is - and that broker not only charges a transaction fee, but also a markup.

But if you do the math, $100 a day profit (or $200 a day on $20k) on $10k x 250 trading days = $25,000 or $50,000 total, or a 150% annual return. The top hedge funds are very lucky if they can average 40% (20-30 is even high), and very few mutual funds average much more than 15% or so for any length of time.


Finally, regarding mutual fund fees, most unaccredited investors with 6 figrues or more to invest are better off being in a "managed money" platform like I mentioned previously. There is basically just a flat annual % fee with no costs for transactions on most products (funds, stocks, bonds). Mutual funds that charge a hefty upfront or backend fee should probably be avoided, as should "transactional" accounts if one has over $100k and wants to "trade" frequently. If one has less $ than that, they probably sure as hell shouldn't be "trading" frequently because of the risk to principal and the transaction costs.

Then there are always tax concerns, of course...


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 2Thick on December 04, 2013, 12:53:48 PM
Re Hedge funds - they actually do typically charge a 2% admin fee in addition to performance fees. Most are 2/20, but there are a few who have been as high as 5/50.

Another thing to remember is that many hedge funds do bite the dust, and that the term can have different meanings. Not all "hedge fund managers" are Gordon Gekkos who are making billions doing a hundred trades a day, shorting left and right, taking over corporations, etc. Hollywood glamorizes things just a bit.

I know a couple who are very wealthy who have much of their $ in "hedge funds" that is only their $, and is not $ that is constantly "traded" throughout the day. They are listed as the "managers" of the "hedge funds" on the legal documents. It's done for tax and liability purposes in their case.

But hedge funds are for the $ of accredited investors, and are nowhere near as regulated as mutual funds and institutions that don't deal all or mostly with accredited investors.

Most top hedge funds don't do much trading and don't have much portfolio turnover anyway - that's another myth. They are long / short funds for big investors. And many of them suck and will take all of your $, the same way day trading will for just about all small investors who do it long enough.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: syntaxmachine on December 07, 2013, 11:26:10 AM
Oh, what a rent seeker!


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 24KT on December 07, 2013, 12:32:42 PM

There are many ways to MANAGE (minimize) risk. The single best way most can do this for themselves is to invest with a professional who will put their $ into a diversified portfolio of quality investments and be patient.

Sha right... invest money with someone who has no vested interest in whether I make money or lose money?

I don't think so.  The best way to minimize risk imo is to do your homework, and know what you're doing.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 2Thick on December 07, 2013, 01:04:43 PM
Sha right... invest money with someone who has no vested interest in whether I make money or lose money?

I don't think so.  The best way to minimize risk imo is to do your homework, and know what you're doing.

Most people don't have the time, fewer have the aptitude, and even fewer the temperament. I'm NOT saying NO ONE can, just that most won't turn out to be the experts they often think they are from watching "Mad Money" and listening to the guy at the bar or a couple of guys on a BB forum who tell them to day trade or put everything into 1 or 2 securities or whatever.

If you'd read my posts more carefully, you'd see that I do recommend most use a "managed money" platform with an advisor, and also check out that experienced advisor(s) at that big firm carefully. Have any prospective advisors put together a proposal that shows you what they plan to do for you and what they've done for similar clients, and also disclose all fees, etc.

If you give that experienced advisor at that reputable firm $100k and he turns it into more $ in a managed $ platform, he's making more $ off you than he was when you had less $ with him. And if you're happy with his performance, you're likely to refer 10 people to him. But if you're not happy with him, you're likely to tell hundreds he's not good at what he does.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 2Thick on December 07, 2013, 02:00:34 PM
Regarding hedge funds and mutual funds, high frequency trading, etc, there are some other very good and reputable sources of info out there...

http://www.amazon.com/More-Money-Than-God-Relations/dp/0143119419 (http://www.amazon.com/More-Money-Than-God-Relations/dp/0143119419)


This book here goes into great detail about the failed mathematical models that told the quants that an event such as the meltdown of late '07 to early '09 was not possible:

http://www.amazon.com/Quants-Whizzes-Conquered-Street-Destroyed/dp/0307453383/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1386452720&sr=1-1&keywords=the+quants (http://www.amazon.com/Quants-Whizzes-Conquered-Street-Destroyed/dp/0307453383/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1386452720&sr=1-1&keywords=the+quants)


This website is a good place to get factual info on top hedge and mutual fund managers and big investors:

http://www.insidermonkey.com/hedge-fund/ (http://www.insidermonkey.com/hedge-fund/)

The site even gives the entire quarterly portfolio long holdings of some of the greats (institutions and funds with over $150 mil have to disclose these at the close of every quarter), and also some ranking info that shows that nowhere near ALL "hedge fund managers" are anywhere near great, much like Morningstar easily shows that not all mutual fund managers are dogs. I always like to investigate institutional activity (buys and sells) of a security as part of the screening process of whether or not to buy, sell, short, how much, etc.

And even the greats have bad years and bad quarters - Boone Pickens was once down 90% over an 18 month period, for instance. And John Paulson lost roughly 50% in a year several years ago - he had roughly 40% of his fund in gold when gold sold off 40%, plus he had some $ in gold miner stocks, which get hit even harder than the actual commodity when it goes down... this was after Paulson had made a fortune in '07 going short on subprime mortgages before most knew there was a problem there, then later catching gold's big run up to $1900.

No one ever beats the market every quarter or year, and no one ever doesn't have a bad year here and there. Buffett and Icahn were both down over 30% in '08. At the end of the day it's a marathon, not a sprint.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 24KT on December 07, 2013, 02:44:10 PM
Most people don't have the time, ...

Everyone has 24 hours in their day. The question is not whether they HAVE the time,
...but rather whether they will TAKE the time.

Quote
...fewer have the aptitude,...

It is a teachable & learnable skill, ...if one truly wants to learn it

Quote
... and even fewer the temperament.

If they don't have the temperament to trade in the market, ...they shouldn't be in the market. PERIOD.

Quote
I'm NOT saying NO ONE can, just that most won't turn out to be the experts they often think they are from watching "Mad Money" and listening to the guy at the bar or a couple of guys on a BB forum who tell them to day trade or put everything into 1 or 2 securities or whatever.

No one becomes an expert from watching TV, listening to a drinking buddy on a bar stool or reading a BB forum. But one doesn't HAVE TO be an "EXPERT", they just have to know what they're doing. And if they're not willing to learn the skills required, they don't deserve to earn the gains they're seeking. They deserve the moral hazard associated.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 24KT on December 07, 2013, 02:45:53 PM

 At the end of the day it's a marathon, not a sprint.


With this I wholeheartedly agree!!! Too many people living in a microwave generation looking to make a quick buck without putting in the sweat equity.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: tonymctones on December 07, 2013, 03:10:27 PM
I know this stuff real well too - I'm in the industry myself.



so youre in the finance industry?

I thought you were a manager of a business unit in asia for an american company?

at least thats what you said on the politics board, which one is it?


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 24KT on December 07, 2013, 03:32:22 PM
so youre in the finance industry?

I thought you were a manager of a business unit in asia for an american company?

at least thats what you said on the politics board, which one is it?

I thought he imported / exported vehicles for a living, but what relevance is that? Are you saying he can't be both?


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: tonymctones on December 07, 2013, 03:35:55 PM
I thought he imported / exported vehicles for a living, but what relevance is that? Are you saying he can't be both?
he specifically stated on the politics board he worked in manufacturing for a american company in asia.

seems like he makes shit up to try and gain credibility in a conversation


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: tonymctones on December 07, 2013, 04:25:48 PM
hahahahahahahahaha  oh, brother  ::)

Somebody who spends her life spamming a "bodybuilding" board with magic gas pills and a tired "cash for gold" scheme after a failed Hollywood career preaching about people putting in "sweat equity" has got to be one of the dumbest things I've heard recently, even out of Canada.

You didn't learn anything in prison, did you?
lol jagson was imprisoned?

for what?


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: Internet Tough Guy on December 07, 2013, 04:26:52 PM
lol jagson was imprisoned?

for what?

fraud


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: tonymctones on December 07, 2013, 04:37:49 PM
fraud

hahaha is this true jagson?


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: Internet Tough Guy on December 07, 2013, 04:43:17 PM
Judi, you can pound that "report to moderator" button until the cows come home, but nothing will expunge those convictions.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: tonymctones on December 07, 2013, 04:44:48 PM
Judi, you can pound that "report to moderator" button until the cows come home, but nothing will expunge those convictions.
hahahah


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: Internet Tough Guy on December 07, 2013, 04:49:41 PM
hahahah

she sure logged off quickly


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: jude2 on December 07, 2013, 05:24:27 PM
Sha right... invest money with someone who has no vested interest in whether I make money or lose money?

I don't think so.  The best way to minimize risk imo is to do your homework, and know what you're doing.
This is so right. I use to have a professional ::) invest my money for me. They don't look out for the little accounts. One of the stocks I owned was Bear Stearns, had 200 shares at around $150 a share. I read in the news  paper it went down to $60 a share. I called him and said u should have told me the stock was on a fast ride down. He said well u already lost half which was 15,000 just on this one stock. He said it will most likely go up or the government will bail them out. Bullshit. It went down to $5 a share and JPMorgan stole the company for 4 of their shares for 100 of Bear Stearns. So I got the shaft and 8 shares of JPM. I then realized I could do a better job then these so called professionals who can't even match the S&P .


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: tonymctones on December 07, 2013, 07:39:21 PM
hahahahahahahahaha  oh, brother  ::)

Somebody who spends her life spamming a "bodybuilding" board with magic gas pills and a tired "cash for gold" scheme after a failed Hollywood career preaching about people putting in "sweat equity" has got to be one of the dumbest things I've heard recently, even out of Canada.

You didn't learn anything in prison, did you?
she is denying she was in prison...


Who on earth claims I was ever in prison? Gee Whiz!  ::)


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 24KT on December 08, 2013, 07:45:39 AM
she sure logged off quickly


Good grief!!!

I always log off when I prepare for a webcast.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 24KT on December 08, 2013, 07:50:57 AM
This is so right. I use to have a professional ::) invest my money for me. They don't look out for the little accounts. One of the stocks I owned was Bear Stearns, had 200 shares at around $150 a share. I read in the news  paper it went down to $60 a share. I called him and said u should have told me the stock was on a fast ride down. He said well u already lost half which was 15,000 just on this one stock. He said it will most likely go up or the government will bail them out. Bullshit. It went down to $5 a share and JPMorgan stole the company for 4 of their shares for 100 of Bear Stearns. So I got the shaft and 8 shares of JPM. I then realized I could do a better job then these so called professionals who can't even match the S&P .

Wow Jude, I'm so sorry you learned such a very hard lesson.  :'(

Alot of these guys are heartless, half of them don't realize that they're dealing with people's blood, sweat, tears. and most often their very futures, ...and the other half who do, don't seem to care.

ps: Be careful. Anyone who validates anything I post is then accused of being a gimmick account of mine.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 2Thick on December 08, 2013, 01:26:07 PM
Believe me, nowhere near all millionaires (even those who are retired and have the time) have the mindset to do their own investing. I know many plain looking and talking blue collar retirees whose net worth would surprise you who have no clue about what to do with their considerable wealth, and would be foolish to try in their cases. They have no idea how to allocate their $, how to manage risk, how to determine whether a stock or bond is right for them or not, what ratios of stocks, bonds, commodities, etc are appropriate for their goals, etc.

Again I'm not saying ALL people need an advisor, but most would be better off with a competent pro. The main reason so many people are afraid of the markets (aside from the volatility we've seen in recent times) is because either they or others they know invested foolishly - too much risk... overly concentrated, day trading or otherwise thinking too short term with too much of their $, gambling on penny stocks or other "tips", too much company stock in their portfolios, chasing performance too hard, etc.



Everyone has 24 hours in their day. The question is not whether they HAVE the time,
...but rather whether they will TAKE the time.

It is a teachable & learnable skill, ...if one truly wants to learn it

If they don't have the temperament to trade in the market, ...they shouldn't be in the market. PERIOD.

No one becomes an expert from watching TV, listening to a drinking buddy on a bar stool or reading a BB forum. But one doesn't HAVE TO be an "EXPERT", they just have to know what they're doing. And if they're not willing to learn the skills required, they don't deserve to earn the gains they're seeking. They deserve the moral hazard associated.



Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 2Thick on December 08, 2013, 01:36:40 PM
Sounds like you had a bad advisor, or the wrong advisor at the wrong time - assuming it was his idea for you to buy it and buy so much of it in the first place. I hope you didn't have too much of your total nest egg in that one company.

I almost never have any more than 5% of my $ in any one individual security (aside from gold) for any length of time, and most holdings are an even smaller %.

If someone is doing their own investing and not going to go the route of reducing risk by using at least a few of the better funds (that have killed the S&P with much less volatility over time), they should probably spread the risk over at least a couple dozen stocks and another half dozen or so other investments (such as commodity ETFs, etc) if they are going to pick individual securities to invest in. And one should not have too much exposure to any one industry, sector, market, nation, etc., not be overly aggressive or impatient, understand things on fundamental levels, etc.



This is so right. I use to have a professional ::) invest my money for me. They don't look out for the little accounts. One of the stocks I owned was Bear Stearns, had 200 shares at around $150 a share. I read in the news  paper it went down to $60 a share. I called him and said u should have told me the stock was on a fast ride down. He said well u already lost half which was 15,000 just on this one stock. He said it will most likely go up or the government will bail them out. Bullshit. It went down to $5 a share and JPMorgan stole the company for 4 of their shares for 100 of Bear Stearns. So I got the shaft and 8 shares of JPM. I then realized I could do a better job then these so called professionals who can't even match the S&P .


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: Internet Tough Guy on December 08, 2013, 01:49:11 PM
epic phaggotry by these nazi sympathizing mods removing posts that tell the truth about their pets


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 2Thick on December 08, 2013, 01:53:02 PM
I guess investing and how to go about it is best summed up by keeping in mind that it ain't play money.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: jude2 on December 08, 2013, 02:16:34 PM
Sounds like you had a bad advisor, or the wrong advisor at the wrong time - assuming it was his idea for you to buy it and buy so much of it in the first place. I hope you didn't have too much of your total nest egg in that one company.

I almost never have any more than 5% of my $ in any one individual security (aside from gold) for any length of time, and most holdings are an even smaller %.

If someone is doing their own investing and not going to go the route of reducing risk by using at least a few of the better funds (that have killed the S&P with much less volatility over time), they should probably spread the risk over at least a couple dozen stocks and another half dozen or so other investments (such as commodity ETFs, etc) if they are going to pick individual securities to invest in. And one should not have too much exposure to any one industry, sector, market, nation, etc., not be overly aggressive or impatient, understand things on fundamental levels, etc.

It was a good lesson to learn. I am spread out well in the market now. Getting good returns over the years. I too don't invest in more than 5% in one thing. Even gold is only 5% for me. I have a few different Vanguard funds and EFT's and about 20 individual stocks I manage. I have done very well in tech with Apple and just recently sold my google stock when it hit 1,000 a share which was a 3 fold winner for me. It is not for everyone, but I think people should invest in good companies that they spend their money with, if not just buy some Vanguard index funds of EFT's.



Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: pedro01 on December 08, 2013, 04:14:10 PM
so youre in the finance industry?

I thought you were a manager of a business unit in asia for an american company?

at least thats what you said on the politics board, which one is it?

Are these things mutually exclusive?


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: pedro01 on December 08, 2013, 04:23:04 PM
he specifically stated on the politics board he worked in manufacturing for a american company in asia.

seems like he makes shit up to try and gain credibility in a conversation

You have a file on me do you?

I run a company out here for a Japanese MNC in Asia but the direct parent company is American.

I also have my own company in the financial industry. One that started over a period of time because I put the savings from the above company into the sort of crappy investments that are being mentioned here. I figured I was better off moving away from the sort of 'advisers' that will look you in the eye after losing 30% of your money  (and charging you 1-4% for the privilege) and say "at least we beat the benchmark".

There was never an intention to become part of the financial industry but I spotted a niche and decided I may as well exploit it as anyone else.

Like I say - these things are not necessarily mutually exclusive. Put the right people in place and you only need to direct them/put out fires.

It's called diversification.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 2Thick on December 09, 2013, 08:48:28 AM
"Diversification"? That word sounds very familiar for some strange reason.  ::)

Yes, I'm sure your investments do much better than a pretty consistent annual average of low double digits over decades. You probably even are ahead of Oceanstone's 55% they've made the last 5 years - including '08 when they were down 10% while the S&P was down nearly 40%.  ::)

 And I'm sure you were down nowhere near 30% in '08 when Buffett and Icahn were - in fact, you probably shorted 100% of your portfolio in subprime mtgs, Bear Stearns, Merrill, and Lehman Bros and made triple digits in '08, correct?  ::)

I'll bet you've never even been down a single day, much less a month, quarter, or year. You're probably making 4 digit returns year in, year out.

Please share some of YOUR specific investment strategies with us peons, Macho Man - if you can pull yourself away from day trading your 12 figure hedge fund long enough.

I can give you my current main account portfolio as well. I'm sure it pales in comparison to "The Secret" though.  ;D

You have a file on me do you?

I run a company out here for a Japanese MNC in Asia but the direct parent company is American.

I also have my own company in the financial industry. One that started over a period of time because I put the savings from the above company into the sort of crappy investments that are being mentioned here. I figured I was better off moving away from the sort of 'advisers' that will look you in the eye after losing 30% of your money  (and charging you 1-4% for the privilege) and say "at least we beat the benchmark".

There was never an intention to become part of the financial industry but I spotted a niche and decided I may as well exploit it as anyone else.

Like I say - these things are not necessarily mutually exclusive. Put the right people in place and you only need to direct them/put out fires.

It's called diversification.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: jillymayr on December 09, 2013, 12:20:33 PM
I've been thinking about investing but I get so scared of losing money :(


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 2Thick on December 09, 2013, 12:31:31 PM
I've been thinking about investing but I get so scared of losing money :(

Some believe that if you day trade, you'll always be immune from even the shortest term and smallest downside whatsoever (unlike even the world's greatest investors), and always be able to make money day in and day out, year after year.  ::)


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 24KT on December 09, 2013, 12:54:39 PM


Please share some of YOUR specific investment strategies with us peons, Macho Man - if you can pull yourself away from day trading your 12 figure hedge fund long enough.

I can give you my current main account portfolio as well. I'm sure it pales in comparison to "The Secret" though.  ;D


I invest in the only thing I have full control over... MYSELF!!!.

I don't day trade, but I currently have a friend teaching me how to trade shares in the markets.

I don't currently trade shares. If I did, I would have him do it for me, but instead, I'm choosing to learn how to do it myself.

At that point, any broker will be employed simply to execute my instructions, not to make decisions with my money.

At the moment however, I am using an incredibly lucrative system.

One that I was able to start without any money. Of course returns in this system can be magnified with an initial outlay of capital. It allowed me to both have my cake and eat it too.

I received my initial capital outlay back in an incredibly short period of time, and the system spins off pure profit.

This profit is paid out to me weekly (kind of like a stock dividend) however, instead of being dependent upon some board of directors deciding whether or not they're even going to pay a dividend every 3 months, this "dividend like" payment, is issued to me weekly, along with free gold.

All the while, I have an ever growing asset on my balance sheet that spins off weekly cash flow profits and more physical gold.

My money is never at risk, and I incur no bank or broker fees to do it.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: pedro01 on December 09, 2013, 05:27:48 PM
"Diversification"? That word sounds very familiar for some strange reason.  ::)

Yes, I'm sure your investments do much better than a pretty consistent annual average of low double digits over decades. You probably even are ahead of Oceanstone's 55% they've made the last 5 years - including '08 when they were down 10% while the S&P was down nearly 40%.  ::)

 And I'm sure you were down nowhere near 30% in '08 when Buffett and Icahn were - in fact, you probably shorted 100% of your portfolio in subprime mtgs, Bear Stearns, Merrill, and Lehman Bros and made triple digits in '08, correct?  ::)

I'll bet you've never even been down a single day, much less a month, quarter, or year. You're probably making 4 digit returns year in, year out.

Please share some of YOUR specific investment strategies with us peons, Macho Man - if you can pull yourself away from day trading your 12 figure hedge fund long enough.

I can give you my current main account portfolio as well. I'm sure it pales in comparison to "The Secret" though.  ;D


What you are doing right now - quoting a bunch of outlyer, quoting the now dead "low double digits per year" is just part of the IFA pitch.

Let me ask you - are you a registered CTA? If not, all you are is a fund salesman, which makes you about as far from being an investor as humanly possible.

Anyone can cherry pick good performers from the past - but that's not going to help you with where to put your money in the future


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: tonymctones on December 09, 2013, 05:35:07 PM
You seem to be confusing me with someone that gives a shit what some crappy financial adviser thinks.

What you are doing right now - quoting a bunch of outlyer, quoting the now dead "low double digits per year" is just part of the IFA pitch.

Let me ask you - are you a registered CTA? If not, all you are is a fund salesman, which makes you about as far from being an investor as humanly possible.
LMFAO bull shit youre a 23 year old pot head living in his parents spare bedroom


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: Internet Tough Guy on December 09, 2013, 06:20:30 PM
once again these phag nazi mods deleting posts that speak the truth



Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: pedro01 on December 10, 2013, 08:18:30 AM
LMFAO bull shit youre a 23 year old pot head living in his parents spare bedroom

Yup, that and about 90% of your headspace right now...

(http://i39.photobucket.com/albums/e156/tb9pdvs/IMG_27891_zps7a8d7908.jpg)

Here's my 'moms spare bedroom' - aka my trading station, next to the November copy of Futures Magazine and an assortment of Thai snacks & a bottle of Singha drinking water. Shame it's not the beer but drinking and day trading hardly go hand in hand.

My English is pretty good for a 23 year old Thai isn't it?


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 2Thick on December 10, 2013, 09:24:16 AM
I've already stated that I am a former retail brokerage IA who now has a small private investment fund, dealing strictly with accredited investors. I started as a registered rep at a very large retail bank, then moved on to a local branch of one of the world's largest brokerage firms, where I built up a clientele of investors ranging from a few thousand to many millions in assets.

I no longer advise small investors, but I don't hesitate to use my extensive background and knowledge in this field to point small investors in the right direction and hopefully keep them from losing everything.

Aside from more traditional investing, I day traded for a couple of years and have known and talked with many who have, and also some who claim to invest or day trade who I'm often skeptical of or else know for a fact are bullshitting and probably don't even have any $.

I have also personally known people who have lost 6 or 7 figures in ponzi schemes that "guaranteed" no short term or other risk to principle ever, with some outrageous return attached to it - usually somewhere in low double digits, but occasionally more.

Anyone who says they've never had any downside on any part of their portfolio ever while making gains that outpace inflation to any degree over time is lying.

Anyone who cannot tolerate even short term downside fluctuations in their investments at all doesn’t need to be investing, and should stick to checking / savings, and traditional money market and CDs. There is still theoretical risk in FDIC deposits, and there is even more risk in US treasuries.

Anyone who thinks that they can somehow protect themselves 100% from any and all downside while putting their money in actual  investments - that carry at least some risk (stocks, bonds, mutual funds, ETFs, commodities, options, etc), is fooling themselves.

And they are delusional if they think they can make low to mid double or even triple digit returns with no downside risk, risk to principal, or short term fluctuation in value. You can manage and reduce risk in investing, but you cannot totally eliminate it.

 You cannot expect to not have any days, months, quarters, or even years when you didn’t beat the market or when your investments dropped in value. You cannot go up every day, month, or year indefinitely. Such expectations are unrealistic, and open one up to scams and other unwise strategies. Again, anyone who says they’ve done this is lying, and anyone who THINKS they can do so is delusional.

But at the end of the day, do what you want. I just don’t think it’s wise to tell others to do it without a track record of some sort you can back it up with. Who do you know who wasn’t down in ’08 and who was able to prove it? How did your strategies do in ’08?

Anyone who claims Oceanstone, Bruce, Yactman, First Eagle Global, Templeton Global Bond, etc are "crap" for a typical small investor willing to take a moderate level of risk over time is a moron. Good luck.  ::)

 

What you are doing right now - quoting a bunch of outlyer, quoting the now dead "low double digits per year" is just part of the IFA pitch.

Let me ask you - are you a registered CTA? If not, all you are is a fund salesman, which makes you about as far from being an investor as humanly possible.

Anyone can cherry pick good performers from the past - but that's not going to help you with where to put your money in the future


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: syntaxmachine on December 10, 2013, 10:03:46 AM
24KT is a great mind to behold, and I'm sure she would be willing to share with the board the dollar-weighted returns for 2013 for a hypothetical investor in her...uh..."scheme."


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 2Thick on December 10, 2013, 10:17:10 AM
And again, I've stated repeatedly in this thread that my main investing account primarily consists of equities, along with some commodity and bond exposure, some cash, and using a bit of options for downside protection and a bit of speculation, etc.

I have stated repeatedly that I invest this $ and most client $ on extensive micro and macro fundamental analysis - definitely forward looking investing. I do not really base my individual securities investments (stocks, options, gold and other commodities, bonds, etc) off past performance of those securities the way chartist do. If anything, I usually want the current price to be relatively cheap. I'll buy it at a good price because of those fundamantal parameters I detailed in a previous post, and also make decisions based upon macro factors. Overall economy, political factors, trends in various sectors and industries, etc.

Things such as a company owning or drilling on land likely to be very rich in oil, or whether or not a biotech company's new drug will show positive clinical trials or get FDA approval, etc are also factors in more speculative stock and options activity in my main portfolio.  

But again, in my more conservative and less active retirement account, I do put most of my $ in the better performing mutual funds.

The difference between looking at an individual stock's past performance and an individual fund manager's past performance is significant and obvious. Corporate insiders usually feel compelled to buy and hold large blocks of company stocks, but better money managers have no such loyalty or need to be seen in such a positive light by other shareholders and the public at large. And insiders often MUST hold their company’s stock for periods of time. Better fund managers don’t have that constraint on buying the stocks of companies unless they buy up so much that they also become an “insider”.

A fund manager typically diversifies, and his job is to do the right thing for investors in the fund, within the guidelines of the fund – and a main reason why I like the funds I do is because of the lack of much in the way of constraints concerning things like asset allocation, etc.

A good fund manager in my eyes only has loyalty to the fund’s investors and the bottom line. Companies, stocks, bonds, commodities, cash, etc are only tools. An investment in an individual stock is an investment on what the company will do. But an investment in a fund is an investment based upon the manager’s track record, reputation, etc. This is why investing in better managed funds is a preferred way to invest for most novice investors, somewhat more conservative investors, and investors not wanting to put ALL of their $ into individual securities.

When a fund manager can boast of 55% returns over 5 years or 15% returns over several decades with far less volatility than the overall markets, that tells any investor who knows anything that that fund manager is far better than average and has a TRACK RECORD of success, and will do far better for the average investor than they will likely do for themselves.

If you have the time, temperament, and aptitude to pick your own investments without your fear, greed, or ego getting in the way, that’s great. Most don’t. And almost all who day trade don’t have a happy ending.
 


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: Tapeworm on December 10, 2013, 11:58:12 AM
I invest in the only thing I have full control over... MYSELF!!!.

I don't day trade, but I currently have a friend teaching me how to trade shares in the markets.

I don't currently trade shares. If I did, I would have him do it for me, but instead, I'm choosing to learn how to do it myself.

At that point, any broker will be employed simply to execute my instructions, not to make decisions with my money.

At the moment however, I am using an incredibly lucrative system.

One that I was able to start without any money. Of course returns in this system can be magnified with an initial outlay of capital. It allowed me to both have my cake and eat it too.

I received my initial capital outlay back in an incredibly short period of time, and the system spins off pure profit.

This profit is paid out to me weekly (kind of like a stock dividend) however, instead of being dependent upon some board of directors deciding whether or not they're even going to pay a dividend every 3 months, this "dividend like" payment, is issued to me weekly, along with free gold.

All the while, I have an ever growing asset on my balance sheet that spins off weekly cash flow profits and more physical gold.

My money is never at risk, and I incur no bank or broker fees to do it.

Do you have any idea how goofy you sound?  It's like you're part Romanian. 


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: tonymctones on December 10, 2013, 05:57:50 PM
Yup, that and about 90% of your headspace right now...

(http://i39.photobucket.com/albums/e156/tb9pdvs/IMG_27891_zps7a8d7908.jpg)

Here's my 'moms spare bedroom' - aka my trading station, next to the November copy of Futures Magazine and an assortment of Thai snacks & a bottle of Singha drinking water. Shame it's not the beer but drinking and day trading hardly go hand in hand.

My English is pretty good for a 23 year old Thai isn't it?
LOL I could take a picture like that as well as Im half japanese and have japanese snacks in the pantry.

maybe ill take picture of my work terminal tomorrow, ill do my best to get the bloomberg terminal next to my computer crammed in there ;)


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: pedro01 on December 10, 2013, 06:37:57 PM
I've already stated that I am a former retail brokerage IA who now has a small private investment fund, dealing strictly with accredited investors. I started as a registered rep at a very large retail bank, then moved on to a local branch of one of the world's largest brokerage firms, where I built up a clientele of investors ranging from a few thousand to many millions in assets.

I no longer advise small investors, but I don't hesitate to use my extensive background and knowledge in this field to point small investors in the right direction and hopefully keep them from losing everything.

Aside from more traditional investing, I day traded for a couple of years and have known and talked with many who have, and also some who claim to invest or day trade who I'm often skeptical of or else know for a fact are bullshitting and probably don't even have any $.

I have also personally known people who have lost 6 or 7 figures in ponzi schemes that "guaranteed" no short term or other risk to principle ever, with some outrageous return attached to it - usually somewhere in low double digits, but occasionally more.

Anyone who says they've never had any downside on any part of their portfolio ever while making gains that outpace inflation to any degree over time is lying.

Anyone who cannot tolerate even short term downside fluctuations in their investments at all doesn’t need to be investing, and should stick to checking / savings, and traditional money market and CDs. There is still theoretical risk in FDIC deposits, and there is even more risk in US treasuries.

Anyone who thinks that they can somehow protect themselves 100% from any and all downside while putting their money in actual  investments - that carry at least some risk (stocks, bonds, mutual funds, ETFs, commodities, options, etc), is fooling themselves.

And they are delusional if they think they can make low to mid double or even triple digit returns with no downside risk, risk to principal, or short term fluctuation in value. You can manage and reduce risk in investing, but you cannot totally eliminate it.

 You cannot expect to not have any days, months, quarters, or even years when you didn’t beat the market or when your investments dropped in value. You cannot go up every day, month, or year indefinitely. Such expectations are unrealistic, and open one up to scams and other unwise strategies. Again, anyone who says they’ve done this is lying, and anyone who THINKS they can do so is delusional.

But at the end of the day, do what you want. I just don’t think it’s wise to tell others to do it without a track record of some sort you can back it up with. Who do you know who wasn’t down in ’08 and who was able to prove it? How did your strategies do in ’08?

Anyone who claims Oceanstone, Bruce, Yactman, First Eagle Global, Templeton Global Bond, etc are "crap" for a typical small investor willing to take a moderate level of risk over time is a moron. Good luck.  ::)


So as a retail brokerage IA, you would be paid commissions regardless of whether your customers made profits or not? That makes you a salesman, like all brokers. That is not to be confused with someone that can make a return for their customers.

And it seems you are still selling. Oceanstone is a prime example.

(http://i39.photobucket.com/albums/e156/tb9pdvs/10-12-201321-19-41_zps758eecb0.png)

Here is Oceanstone (white) vs the SPY (yellow). SPY is just a plain old index tracker. Oceanstone charge you 1.8% per year for the privilege of being in their fund. SPY costs you .09. Oceanstone have offices to pay, marketing costs, commissions to guys like you, company cars - and of course their 'professional investors' - who in the past  3 years have done nothing at all but slightly under perform a completely passive SPY.

Now, of course, in 2009, after the crash - Oceanstone picked up a lot of undervalued stock and they got a massive return. This is to be expected and makes a lot of sense in HINDSIGHT. Trouble with hindsight and your cherry picking historical high peformers to "wow" the board, this does nothing in terms of future returns. In fact, perhaps the best way to guarantee poor returns is to invest in last years high performers.

So yeah, Oceanstone is currently crap. It is performing worse than the S&P500 at the moment. Do they pay good commissions?

What no IA will tell you is that the market cannot create money. Only what goes in can come out. Still, everyone expects to take out more than they put in and that's AFTER IAs, Funds, exchanges take their cut. When you invest you are competing against other investors to take more from a finite pool of money than you put in.

Investing/trading is a competitive endeavor.

In terms of Templeton, I would advise any would-be investor to download 5 years worth of performance figures for their funds. Track how the to 10 performers for any one year do in the next year. What you will boil it down to is the fact that YOU have to choose the funds your money goes into. Your IA will give pointers but will leave it in your hands. So you have to decide what will do well next year. Hell - if you could do that, then you wouldn't be looking for investment advice in the first place.

The whole thing is a scam.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: tonymctones on December 10, 2013, 07:07:46 PM
I think thicks point is for the general investor your going to be better off putting you money into some funds than investing them yourself and he is correct the vast majority of the time.

you are also looking at total return which is a pretty bad way to look at investments. Most advisors dont chase total return they seek risk adjusted return as most clients are at least somewhat risk adverse.

If you look at the alpha for OSFDX over the past 5 years its 21.29 comparing it to the S&P


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: tonymctones on December 10, 2013, 07:16:21 PM
I also noticed that notably smaller amount of volatility in OSFDX when compared to the S&P something that advisors also look for and maybe important to investors looking for liquidity and in some cases day traders...


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: pedro01 on December 10, 2013, 07:52:58 PM
I think nicks point is for the general investor your going to be better off putting you money into some funds than investing them yourself and he is correct the vast majority of the time.

That's the thing - I think this premise only benefits people in Nicks industry.

Would you agree that the market can only pay out what effectively went in?

If so, would you not also agree that it is impossible for all investors to take out more than they put in?

If not - where would it come from?

I think where people get confused is they see an equity.

10,000,000 shares issued - $25 a share - so a $250,000,000 market cap

Then someone pays $35 a share, now it's a $350,000,000 market cap - but that additional $100,000,000 is merely last price paid x number of shares. It's not as if it actually exists anywhere. It's smoke & mirrors. If 90% of the shareholders put in market orders to sell after seeing that $35 share price, most of them would end up getting less than $1 a share.

The investment horizon doesn't change the fact that it's still you against the other participants.

you are also looking at total return which is a pretty bad way to look at investments. Most advisors dont chase total return they seek risk adjusted return as most clients are at least somewhat risk adverse.

If you look at the alpha for OSFDX over the past 5 years its 21.29 comparing it to the S&P

Most advisers would be out of a job if they only got paid based on returns.

Every investor on the planet gets in because they want to make money. Most really don't understand risk measures and an investment adviser will generally only mention such thing to throw in a few buzzwords to baffle them or push them towards the fund that pays the highest rates of commissions.

I mean really - what will make money next year? Will the S&P be up in 2014 or be at current levels? It all really hinges on the FED and no-one knows what they are doing.

I personally stay close to fully invested but I don't use margin. I use Interactive Brokers & have what is known as a "Universal account" which means I can invest 100% of my capital but intraday that releases margin that I can day trade.

Day Trading is gambling - again, it's a bunch of people all trying to take out more than they put in. It is a type of gambling where you can find yourself a niche/edge but it's not a get rich quick scheme. It's a job more than anything.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: pedro01 on December 10, 2013, 07:58:13 PM
I also noticed that notably smaller amount of volatility in OSFDX when compared to the S&P something that advisors also look for and maybe important to investors looking for liquidity and in some cases day traders...

Would you invest in OSFDX if you somehow knew with 100% certainty that the S&P would tank in 2014?

My guess is you wouldn't. My guess is that OSFDX would tank more than the market but that at the bottom they would pick up some winners.

So the best time to buy OSFDX would be after a move down - buying at the bottom.

And of course, if you knew that the market was going to tank and you knew where the bottom was, you would not need OSFDX at all - you could just buy futures options and get way more leverage for your money.

It is a fund that is providing the same returns as a passive strategy in a bull market.

ThickNick brought up OSFDX because it performed well in hindsight - he went looking for a historical example to  prove his point. Problem is for every OSFDX, there's a hundred funds that no longer even exist.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: tonymctones on December 10, 2013, 08:09:01 PM
That's the thing - I think this premise only benefits people in Nicks industry.

Would you agree that the market can only pay out what effectively went in?

If so, would you not also agree that it is impossible for all investors to take out more than they put in?

If not - where would it come from?

I think where people get confused is they see an equity.

10,000,000 shares issued - $25 a share - so a $250,000,000 market cap

Then someone pays $35 a share, now it's a $350,000,000 market cap - but that additional $100,000,000 is merely last price paid x number of shares. It's not as if it actually exists anywhere. It's smoke & mirrors. If 90% of the shareholders put in market orders to sell after seeing that $35 share price, most of them would end up getting less than $1 a share.

The investment horizon doesn't change the fact that it's still you against the other participants.

Most advisers would be out of a job if they only got paid based on returns.

Every investor on the planet gets in because they want to make money. Most really don't understand risk measures and an investment adviser will generally only mention such thing to throw in a few buzzwords to baffle them or push them towards the fund that pays the highest rates of commissions.

I mean really - what will make money next year? Will the S&P be up in 2014 or be at current levels? It all really hinges on the FED and no-one knows what they are doing.

I personally stay close to fully invested but I don't use margin. I use Interactive Brokers & have what is known as a "Universal account" which means I can invest 100% of my capital but intraday that releases margin that I can day trade.

Day Trading is gambling - again, it's a bunch of people all trying to take out more than they put in. It is a type of gambling where you can find yourself a niche/edge but it's not a get rich quick scheme. It's a job more than anything.

to answer your question briefly no, while I somewhat understand your reasoning it is pretty far off base. Additional money is put into the market quite frequently through dividends, distrubutions, interest and yes even cap gains.

Actually any advisor worth their weight can give you a pretty good idea of what the investment layout will be next year. Rate sensitive securities will take a hit and this is more than likely irrespective of the Fed as the idea that they can control rates to the extent they feel they can is pretty insane. Look for SMID's especially domestically to outperform and equities in general to grind higher.



Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: tonymctones on December 10, 2013, 08:13:44 PM
Would you invest in OSFDX if you somehow knew with 100% certainty that the S&P would tank in 2014?

My guess is you wouldn't. My guess is that OSFDX would tank more than the market but that at the bottom they would pick up some winners.

So the best time to buy OSFDX would be after a move down - buying at the bottom.

And of course, if you knew that the market was going to tank and you knew where the bottom was, you would not need OSFDX at all - you could just buy futures options and get way more leverage for your money.

It is a fund that is providing the same returns as a passive strategy in a bull market.

ThickNick brought up OSFDX because it performed well in hindsight - he went looking for a historical example to  prove his point. Problem is for every OSFDX, there's a hundred funds that no longer even exist.
actually youd be wrong going off their beta over the last 3 years which is below 1 you can see the while they underperform in the up markets they out perform in the down markets. This is easily seen on the chart you posted....

Which is why the S&P has caught up with it over the past 4 or 5 years we have been in an incredibily strong up market. 

Again risk adjusted return is key to most advisors portfolios. Anybody can be up in a market like we have had, the issue is how much are you going to lose in a down market or can you be up in a down market....

Looking at total return is a pretty uninformed way of looking at investments.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: pedro01 on December 10, 2013, 08:33:52 PM
to answer your question briefly no, while I somewhat understand your reasoning it is pretty far off base. Additional money is put into the market quite frequently through dividends, distrubutions, interest and yes even cap gains.

I agree on dividends to the extent that those that buy back shares do represent money going back into the markets - but for all of the categories you define there is a flip side for companies that lose money/pay interest/depreciate assets. Plus you have inflation which is behind a lot of growth in the first place. I have seen no study but I would wager that when you take the flip side of the gains and offset the losses, then the upside (if any) is pretty insignificant compared to the huge amount of $$$$ that was put into the pot.

So you still end up with it being a casino - which is why a huge proportion of professionally managed funds lose money each year.

Actually any advisor worth their weight can give you a pretty good idea of what the investment layout will be next year. Rate sensitive securities will take a hit and this is more than likely irrespective of the Fed as the idea that they can control rates to the extent they feel they can is pretty insane. Look for SMID's especially domestically to outperform and equities in general to grind higher.

That presumes the markets have a rational and predictable reaction to changes that MIGHT happen. I would not consider the S&P at 1800 right now as anything rational or predictable. Nor would I call the Feds policy flip-flopping as predictable either.

To make money, need to have both good timing as to when these things happen as well as a market that reacts rationally. The industry does NOT work in this way. Look how few thought the re-mortgaging bubble would last forever and how few made money out of the crash.

Without timing and a predictable market you end up with the sort of stale asset allocation strategy that puts money all over the place knowing that some will lose and some will gain each year. The salesman gets paid, the funds get paid, you keep up with inflation.

The idea that IAs have any predictive abilities is wishful thinking.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: pedro01 on December 10, 2013, 09:05:07 PM
actually youd be wrong going off their beta over the last 3 years which is below 1 you can see the while they underperform in the up markets they out perform in the down markets. This is easily seen on the chart you posted....

Which is why the S&P has caught up with it over the past 4 or 5 years we have been in an incredibily strong up market.  

Again risk adjusted return is key to most advisors portfolios. Anybody can be up in a market like we have had, the issue is how much are you going to lose in a down market or can you be up in a down market....

Looking at total return is a pretty uninformed way of looking at investments.

On the chart I posted, the white is OceanStone, and yellow is S&P. Pullbacks are much deeper overall on OceanStone. It is way more volatile.

As for total return being an uninformed way of looking at investments, you should tell the Investment Adviser above that too - cause that's what he's quoting.

But really - you can't judge an investment by the amount of money it makes? Ultimately you take the risk in the first place to achieve a return. Increasing your wealth is the very goal of an investment.

I do agree, that risk comes into it but you cannot know the risks in advance. That is another fallacy. For a start, the performance of a vehicle such as OceanStone depends very much on their employees. How do you assess the risk of any specific employee leaving to another fund, especially their star performers? You can't.

Secondly, the markets have proven over and over again that the participants are completely fallable when it comes to assessing risk. Look at Black Scholes, portfolio insurance and all the bubbles. Mathematical based risk models are inherently flawed - even the ones that won Nobel prizes turned out to not work specifically when everyone else was relying on the same model too.

Look at Lehman - was this not a much lauded, top tier company? How about Bear Stearns? How could they be so wrong in assessing their own risk?

So, really - when one of these funds boils down their risk to a couple of KPIs - it's all bullshit.

The whole industry is bullshit - they need people like us to put money in so that they can take it out. That is the bottom line.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: tonymctones on December 11, 2013, 06:20:33 PM
On the chart I posted, the white is OceanStone, and yellow is S&P. Pullbacks are much deeper overall on OceanStone. It is way more volatile.

As for total return being an uninformed way of looking at investments, you should tell the Investment Adviser above that too - cause that's what he's quoting.

But really - you can't judge an investment by the amount of money it makes? Ultimately you take the risk in the first place to achieve a return. Increasing your wealth is the very goal of an investment.

I do agree, that risk comes into it but you cannot know the risks in advance. That is another fallacy. For a start, the performance of a vehicle such as OceanStone depends very much on their employees. How do you assess the risk of any specific employee leaving to another fund, especially their star performers? You can't.

Secondly, the markets have proven over and over again that the participants are completely fallable when it comes to assessing risk. Look at Black Scholes, portfolio insurance and all the bubbles. Mathematical based risk models are inherently flawed - even the ones that won Nobel prizes turned out to not work specifically when everyone else was relying on the same model too.

Look at Lehman - was this not a much lauded, top tier company? How about Bear Stearns? How could they be so wrong in assessing their own risk?

So, really - when one of these funds boils down their risk to a couple of KPIs - it's all bullshit.

The whole industry is bullshit - they need people like us to put money in so that they can take it out. That is the bottom line.
forgot to run osfdx against the S&P on my bloomberg today, maybe tomorrow if I remember

You cant judge an investment simply by the return that it gives is what I said.

LOL youre so jaded and misguided its sad


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 2Thick on December 12, 2013, 04:06:16 PM
I am no longer a retail brokerage IA, as I have explained several times in this thread. Are you even reading my posts, or just trolling me?

I now have a private investment fund of accredited investors, as I have said several times... I AM NO LONGER A RETAIL BROKER!

Now and as an IA I mostly got paid by amount of assets managed. The difference is now I can charge a % on profits. You obviously don't know what an IA is. You think IA and retail registered rep are the same thing. I explained the difference in a previous thread. I don't feel like repeating the same Dick and Jane info to you over and over. Go back and read from page 2 forward. You probably didn't even START reading until after you posted that brilliant assertion that longterm investing and day trading are the same thing.

I AM NO LONGER A RETAIL IA OR RR!

I AM that almighty "hedge fund manager" you THINK doesn't charge an admin fee and doesn't ever have a losing year. I charge a small admin fee and a % of gains. And as a retail IA I was mostly paid as a % of assets as well - the more client $ grew, the more $ I also made. I was not making much on commissions, except with the smaller investor (under 6 figures) who would get placed in a "transactional" account, as opposed to a "managed money" structure I did with 6 figure + clients. I've explained this several times.

I AM NO LONGER A RETAIL IA OR RR!

YOU are cherrypicking. Again, please show the board how well you've done in the ups and downs we've had the past 6 years.

Leave it to a "day trader" to expect anyone to beat the market every day, month, quarter, and year. Learn about risk management. That particular fund has been 70-75% cash for quite a while now - that manager has been cautious much like I and many others have in the last year plus due to various macro factors. The reason the market is currently beating it or at least matching it is because it is currently heavy in cash because the overall market has gone beyond where it really should be. The fed is printing and pumping money and keeping rates artificially low. Some think we'll see a 25-50% market decline once they stop this nonsense.

That fund actually is not even available at retail firms or banks, etc. Anyone who wants to invest in that fund must do so directly through that fund. Not I nor any other money manager, broker, or whatever makes any $ off that fund - they are totally self-contained. I invest a few bucks in it and make others aware of it because the guy obviously knows what he is doing. I DON'T recommend putting everything into that or any other investment.

And I just love the way you say people who invest in mutual funds aren't doing "real investing". I guess the returns and the money are "fake"? A normal person who invests a million with a realistic goal of having 8 figures in 20 years doesn't care how they do it. But they typically prefer the least amount of risk in doing it if they're smart and not investing with their emotions.

Again, you have unrealistic expectations. You won't beat the market every year (much less every day or month), and if you day trade and trade futures, you'll likely be broke in a few years. Statistics and my own experiences and interactions with thousands of people confirm that the odds are great that you'll lose it all if you do it long enough. And you obviously invest (if you even actually do invest) with your ego.

Ego investors / traders always get stomped out pretty quickly. While most investors and investment professionals have the end goals of retiring with a nice nestegg and increasing our net worth throughout our lifespan, leaving our heirs a nice pile of dough, etc, ego investors are only interested in the quick buck, or more accurately bragging about the quick buck. But it has to be a quick buck that is made in a way that is overly complicated and "cool" or "sexy" or whatever. Trading, options, futures, shorting, etc (and perhaps hedge funds?) are the only "cool" ways to invest to the typical ego trader. Traditional investing is "lame", no matter how good the results. Money made by handing $ over to a top fund manager(s) or other professionals, or by holding positions a little while and not making things overly complicated is "not real investing", correct?

You'll take limited gains or even substantial losses to the point of going broke as long as you're the one directly calling the shots and not having to pay anyone fees. You're convinced that not only is the whole industry a scam, but that you know better than anyone. I too thought I would be the greatest thing the world ever saw many years ago when I took my low six figure savings and decided to trade for a living. Luckily I had the sense to realize that day trading was a fool's game before I lost a whole lot of $.

 Investing among professionals is certainly competitive, but again a novice with little or no market knowledge trying to constantly time the market, doing short term technical trading from home with limited tools, limited funds, and limited info is extremely likely to get stomped out quickly. Then you'll be screaming about how the whole thing is "rigged" against the small investor, etc. Small investors willing to take a little risk can make lots of $ riding the coattails of the big boys. But it sounds like you think you're as good or better than them. I thought I would be as well. I thought I'd turn $100k into billions within a few years.

Icahn and Buffett have both turned that exact amount into tens of billions, but it's taken them both many decades of smart investing. And they've also made $ off investors' money. I have some $ in both IEP and BRK.B - far more in IEP. I have also made lots of $ riding Icahn's coattails. But it can be risky.

Where it's REALLY competitive is in gathering assets. Everyone who knows the markets knows that you cannot always win and cannot make anywhere near triple digit returns or even mid double digit returns consistently. The higher you set the bar for returns, the more risk you're taking. The more risk you're taking, the greater the chance of losses. And the more concentrated you are and more you do things such as short individual high beta stocks, commodities, etc, the greater your losses will be.

As for Templeton, I mentioned one fund that any idiot can see is a very good, relatively low risk way to get asset diversification and even a bit of alpha in their portfolios. They have many, many funds. I like a few, most are just average and don't impress me.

You cannot have returns without risk. Generally they tend to be pretty strongly correlated.

As for your latest gem that the whole thing is basically a zero sum game that doesn't build wealth and only moves it around, that's another fallacy your day trading pimps who are selling you materials and info want you to believe. Companies DO grow.

Again, you've already got your mind made up, you know it all, and you don't want or need any info that does not jell with your narrow view of things. You don't care about being very wealthy in 20 or 50 years - it's all about the quick buck. You have no interest in how investments have done or will do in 5,10, or longer year time frames. And you don't need risk management, because you're too smart to ever be wrong. My guess is that you're pretty young, and you probably spend a great deal of $ on flashy things and invest a great deal of time and money into how people see you and don't care about building actual long term wealth - much like others here.

Good luck.

 
So as a retail brokerage IA, you would be paid commissions regardless of whether your customers made profits or not? That makes you a salesman, like all brokers. That is not to be confused with someone that can make a return for their customers.

And it seems you are still selling. Oceanstone is a prime example.

(http://i39.photobucket.com/albums/e156/tb9pdvs/10-12-201321-19-41_zps758eecb0.png)

Here is Oceanstone (white) vs the SPY (yellow). SPY is just a plain old index tracker. Oceanstone charge you 1.8% per year for the privilege of being in their fund. SPY costs you .09. Oceanstone have offices to pay, marketing costs, commissions to guys like you, company cars - and of course their 'professional investors' - who in the past  3 years have done nothing at all but slightly under perform a completely passive SPY.

Now, of course, in 2009, after the crash - Oceanstone picked up a lot of undervalued stock and they got a massive return. This is to be expected and makes a lot of sense in HINDSIGHT. Trouble with hindsight and your cherry picking historical high peformers to "wow" the board, this does nothing in terms of future returns. In fact, perhaps the best way to guarantee poor returns is to invest in last years high performers.

So yeah, Oceanstone is currently crap. It is performing worse than the S&P500 at the moment. Do they pay good commissions?

What no IA will tell you is that the market cannot create money. Only what goes in can come out. Still, everyone expects to take out more than they put in and that's AFTER IAs, Funds, exchanges take their cut. When you invest you are competing against other investors to take more from a finite pool of money than you put in.

Investing/trading is a competitive endeavor.

In terms of Templeton, I would advise any would-be investor to download 5 years worth of performance figures for their funds. Track how the to 10 performers for any one year do in the next year. What you will boil it down to is the fact that YOU have to choose the funds your money goes into. Your IA will give pointers but will leave it in your hands. So you have to decide what will do well next year. Hell - if you could do that, then you wouldn't be looking for investment advice in the first place.

The whole thing is a scam.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 2Thick on December 12, 2013, 04:10:22 PM
I think thicks point is for the general investor your going to be better off putting you money into some funds than investing them yourself and he is correct the vast majority of the time.

you are also looking at total return which is a pretty bad way to look at investments. Most advisors dont chase total return they seek risk adjusted return as most clients are at least somewhat risk adverse.

If you look at the alpha for OSFDX over the past 5 years its 21.29 comparing it to the S&P

He doesn't care about 5 years. How much did it make TODAY?!  ::)


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 2Thick on December 12, 2013, 04:11:02 PM
I also noticed that notably smaller amount of volatility in OSFDX when compared to the S&P something that advisors also look for and maybe important to investors looking for liquidity and in some cases day traders...

Pedro will accept NO volatility!  ;D


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 2Thick on December 12, 2013, 04:13:00 PM
You see things FAR too short term, you have unrealistic expectations, are misinformed about many basic investment fundamentals, and you assume you can predict things with 100% accuracy.

Would you invest in OSFDX if you somehow knew with 100% certainty that the S&P would tank in 2014?

My guess is you wouldn't. My guess is that OSFDX would tank more than the market but that at the bottom they would pick up some winners.

So the best time to buy OSFDX would be after a move down - buying at the bottom.

And of course, if you knew that the market was going to tank and you knew where the bottom was, you would not need OSFDX at all - you could just buy futures options and get way more leverage for your money.

It is a fund that is providing the same returns as a passive strategy in a bull market.

ThickNick brought up OSFDX because it performed well in hindsight - he went looking for a historical example to  prove his point. Problem is for every OSFDX, there's a hundred funds that no longer even exist.



Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: pedro01 on December 13, 2013, 11:44:55 AM
Again, you've already got your mind made up, you know it all, and you don't want or need any info that does not jell with your narrow view of things. You don't care about being very wealthy in 20 or 50 years - it's all about the quick buck. You have no interest in how investments have done or will do in 5,10, or longer year time frames. And you don't need risk management, because you're too smart to ever be wrong. My guess is that you're pretty young, and you probably spend a great deal of $ on flashy things and invest a great deal of time and money into how people see you and don't care about building actual long term wealth - much like others here.

Very far off the mark on all counts.

We have just poked above the level the S&P500 was at 13 years ago. That is 13 years with zero growth. I am very interested in long term investments - are you saying that disappointment at 13 years of zero growth is me being 'short term'? Put your money in mutual funds and in 15 years time you may well be looking at a market that is at a lower price than it is today. This is the reality. You will not be enriched in 20-50 years doing that.

Not only that, listed companies - especially the ones with the most growth potential - are now vehicles of personal enrichment for their employees and executives. Companies like Vocus are going down the toilet because they are chasing short term revenue without focusing on their ability to deliver quality product. They award themselves shares and can't see past their own snouts an further than their own share price. Investors in what could have been a top-flight company are paying the price dearly. I was a shareholder at $11 and out at $11 after seeing it climb to $19 and then drop. That wasn't intentionally a short term trade, if it was I'd have taken profits on the way up. They had potential but they fucked it up specifically by ramping up revenues without doing the same in support. All in the name of chasing up the share price because like many firms, the execs are the largest individual shareholders.

Of course, you don't have the same issue with larger companies but nor do you have the same growth potential. In the case of Vocus, I knew people within the company and I'd still be a holder now if I'd not heard their own complaints loud & clear and if my own experience as a customer wasn't horrendous.

As for risk management - the investment industry has so many failures over their inability to manage risk, I am amazed you even mention it. Mathematical models like portfolio insurance seemed smart to the mathematicians but how could they not have the common sense to know that when everyone used the same model, it would cause them to sell at the same time and crash the markets? How about Lehman and Bear Stearns? Risk? The investment industry either has no clue about risk or ignore it on purpose. Financial advisers like to bandy about risk metrics on funds but those advisers have done no due diligence on the validity of those metrics. They just come in the "sales pack" with the fund, along with the commission rates for selling them to customers.

It is nice that you are concerned about my financial future. Fact is I manage my own money. I'd had my fill of financial advice by the mid 2000's and I decided to take things into my own hands, a fair amount of which was based on investing in land. In fact just this week I purchased some land off someone that needed to sell in a hurry. This has been a good deal. I guess what I should have done is put it into funds and let someone charge me a 3% management fee per year regardless of how they perform managing it.

The sole reason for the traditional  investments I do have is capital preservation because I do not think that cash is safe any more - any currency. I'd rather hold a US MNC than US Dollars.

Of course, right now there's a good bull run so every financial adviser thinks they are Gods gift. When this run ends, there's going to be a lot of "financial advisrs" selling vacuum cleaners door to door.

I'd recommend anyone who buys into this industry to have a good read of Black Swan by Telab before enriching the people in this industry.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: pedro01 on December 13, 2013, 11:48:22 AM
You see things FAR too short term, you have unrealistic expectations, are misinformed about many basic investment fundamentals, and you assume you can predict things with 100% accuracy.

You are the one that brought up OSFDX and "55% growth". Fact is it is an actively managed fund that is not currently able to outpace the market, nor has it for a few years.

The value of that active management right now is 0. The cost of that active management is more than 1% per year.

Would you buy OSFDX right now?


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: pedro01 on December 13, 2013, 11:52:00 AM
Pedro will accept NO volatility!  ;D

When one guy says it's not volatile, I am entitled to point out there is more volatility than the index but it's not doing better than the index - it did well in a specific set of circumstances - post crash. Now it is just an expensive tracker.

So yes - I would not accept more volatility when the fees are higher and the returns are lower than the passive SPY.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: nasht5 on December 13, 2013, 11:53:42 AM
shares are a good thing to do especially if mom packed hershey kisses... you need to share.


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: anabolichalo on December 13, 2013, 12:49:18 PM
fuck this thread is giving me a headache




Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: Teutonic Knight on December 14, 2013, 12:30:10 AM
fuck this thread is giving me a headache




but you have NO brain  ::) & this is very well documented on this site  ;D


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: 24KT on December 14, 2013, 02:38:00 AM
Very far off the mark on all counts.

We have just poked above the level the S&P500 was at 13 years ago. That is 13 years with zero growth. I am very interested in long term investments - are you saying that disappointment at 13 years of zero growth is me being 'short term'? Put your money in mutual funds and in 15 years time you may well be looking at a market that is at a lower price than it is today. This is the reality. You will not be enriched in 20-50 years doing that.

Agreed

Quote
As for risk management - the investment industry has so many failures over their inability to manage risk, I am amazed you even mention it. Mathematical models like portfolio insurance seemed smart to the mathematicians but how could they not have the common sense to know that when everyone used the same model, it would cause them to sell at the same time and crash the markets? How about Lehman and Bear Stearns? Risk? The investment industry either has no clue about risk or ignore it on purpose. Financial advisers like to bandy about risk metrics on funds but those advisers have done no due diligence on the validity of those metrics. They just come in the "sales pack" with the fund, along with the commission rates for selling them to customers.

It is nice that you are concerned about my financial future. Fact is I manage my own money. I'd had my fill of financial advice by the mid 2000's and I decided to take things into my own hands, a fair amount of which was based on investing in land. In fact just this week I purchased some land off someone that needed to sell in a hurry. This has been a good deal. I guess what I should have done is put it into funds and let someone charge me a 3% management fee per year regardless of how they perform managing it.

Now THAT's what I would consider an investment... with your profit generated on the acquisition of an undervalued asset, without having to wait for appreciation.

Quote
The sole reason for the traditional  investments I do have is capital preservation because I do not think that cash is safe any more - any currency. I'd rather hold a US MNC than US Dollars.

Of course, right now there's a good bull run so every financial adviser thinks they are Gods gift. When this run ends, there's going to be a lot of "financial advisrs" selling vacuum cleaners door to door.

I'd recommend anyone who buys into this industry to have a good read of Black Swan by Telab before enriching the people in this industry.


BINGO!!!  
In this economic environment, capital preservation is the name of the game


Title: Re: do you fellas invest in shares? is it a good thing to do?
Post by: temple_of_dis on December 18, 2013, 04:20:22 AM
is it rockey surgery or simple stuff to do with money you dont use anyway

Very risky.

Trend trading is only way to safely win, but even that is tricky due to irs.

See IRS taxes you on your gains.

If you lose big and year rolls voer before your gain big you can get taxes big on year 2 but not be able to cancel it on year 1.

Its tricky.