Actually - Ron Paul DOES lead among Christian Conservatives.
However, their corp interets don't like him of course. Have you seen the way that FOX News outright INSULTS him? He wins or takes second in most debates. He raised $5 mil last quarter, almost as much as mccain who almost won in 00. THe guy is loved by many republicans, and loved by many far right base primary voters.
Many true republicans don't like the war. Many religious folks feel guilt when they vote - and can you blame them? ROmney and Rudy and Thompson all want to attack Iran. Tens of thousands will die. Pre-emptively. Many older voters realize they don't make much diff in this world, and voting is about the only way they can change the world. Do they want their last meaningful act to be "putting into power a man who will start a 3rd war"?
Many repubs will stay home on election day. They hate the idea of voting for another war, just a bit more than their personality disagreements with Hilary's husband.