Georgian conflict shows Russia calling the shots
Aug 13 2008, 11:56
MOSCOW (AP) - Russia has made clear it calls the shots in this part of the world, a message other former Soviet bloc countries cannot ignore.
Georgia's President Mikhail Saakashvili has been a loyal U.S. ally and has portrayed his nation as a beacon of democracy. But when he tried to stand up to his country's former masters in Moscow, he faced the full wrath of the Russian army.
Washington could do little but spout angry words as Russian tanks rolled across Georgia's borders last week and its aircraft began dropping bombs on villages and towns.
Russia was punishing Georgia for moving into the separatist region of South Ossetia to claim back territory that has been effectively under Russian control since 1992 - but also for turning its back on Moscow and throwing in with the West, seeking to join NATO and cozying up to Washington.
Russian leaders had seethed as Georgia brought in Americans to arm and train its troops. One of the first spots hit by Russian aircraft was a military base outside the capital where more than 1,000 U.S. Marines and soldiers led exercises last month.
In ordering a halt to military action Tuesday, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said Georgia had been punished enough.
"The aggressor has been punished and suffered very significant losses. Its military has been disorganized," Medvedev said.
The overwhelming use of force caused alarm in other eastern European countries that aspire to NATO membership, like Ukraine, or have recently joined the alliance. Russia has threatened to target ballistic missiles at them if they allow the U.S. to base a missile defense system on their territory. After the attack on Georgia, the threat is likely to be taken more seriously.
The leaders of Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia rushed to Saakashvili's defense Tuesday, traveling to Georgia and appearing together at a mass pep rally in the center of Tbilisi, the capital.
"We came to fight since our old neighbor (Russia) thinks that it can fight us," Polish President Lech Kaczynski said. "This country thinks that old times will come back, but that time is over. Everyone knows that the next one could be Ukraine, then Poland."
But Georgia's experience shows the U.S. can do little in Russia's neighborhood when Russia feels its interests are threatened.
Matthew Bryza, a U.S. State Department envoy who was in Tbilisi, all but acknowledged as much in responding to the many Georgians who expressed disappointment that the U.S. was not stepping in militarily.
"I'd like to think words really do matter," he told journalists. He characterized U.S. President George W. Bush's comments that Russia was engaged in a "brutal campaign" as the strongest during his presidency.
The U.S. and Russia have waged a war of words during the Georgia conflict, but it is Russian Vladimir Putin who has sounded the toughest. "The scale of their (Western leaders') cynicism is surprising," Putin, the former president who is now prime minister, said Monday.
For Russians, U.S. declarations in support of freedom and democracy ring hollow after the invasion of Iraq.
Russia also is no longer willing to accept U.S. preaching, so when Bush "demanded" that Russia end its offensive, it is difficult to imagine it had the desired effect.
Russia's power in the world has grown along with the price of oil and natural gas. Underlying the Kremlin's determination to reassert its hold over former Soviet states is a desire to control the flow of energy exports to Europe.
Georgia sits on the only oil pipeline carrying crude from the former Soviet Union that bypasses Russia.
In provoking the Georgians into military action in South Ossetia, Russia may have been anxious to show the country as unstable and thus unsuitable for pipelines.
There also is the issue of South Ossetia and another separatist region, Abkhazia, which also has been overrun by Russian troops in recent days.
Saakashvili has pledged to bring the two regions back under Georgian control, but Abkhazia, especially, is close to the heart of many Russians. Its Black Sea coast was a favorite vacation spot of the Soviet elite, and Abkhazia is just down the coast from Sochi, a resort city in Russia that will host the 2014 Olympics.
Russia has offered passports to residents of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which allowed Putin and Medvedev to insist they were sending in troops to defend Russian citizens.
Sarah Mendelson, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the United States' real leverage in the region is that it is working with European countries and "democratic market ways is ultimately a better way than authoritarian."
"At the moment the score card is one for the authoritarian and zero for democrats," she said.
