Get ready to wheel and deal kids because we have a lot of solid bets here.
Chuck Liddell (-255) vs. Rashad Evans (+230)
Chuck "The Iceman" Liddell is the former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion and holds a 21-5 (14 [T]KO/1 SUB) MMA record. Fighting out of John Hackleman's Pit team in San Luis Obispo, California, Liddell relies on a sprawl-n-brawl style to keep the fight standing where he usually holds a distinct striking advantage. Liddell has an underrated wrestling game, though it shouldn't come into play against Evans. He enters the contest 1-2 in his last three fights - a KO loss to Quinton "Rampage" Jackson, an uninspired split decision loss to Keith Jardine, and a reinvigorated unanimous decision over Wanderlei Silva last New Year's Eve. Chuck is currently ranked as the fourth best Light Heavyweight in the world according to Sherdog.com.
"Sugar" Rashad Evans is the winner of the Ultimate Fighter 2 and holds a 11-0-1 (3 [T]KO/2 SUB) MMA record. He trains out of Greg Jackson's camp in Albuquerque, New Mexico. Evans has developed a passable standup game, but primarily relies on his wrestling. He enters the contest perfect in his last three fights including a split decision win over Michael Bisping, a draw with Tito Ortiz, and a highlight real knockout of Sean Salmon. Evans is currently ranked as the ninth Light Heavyweight of the world according to Sherdog.com.
Simply put, this fight is tailor made for Chuck Liddell. Chuck eats up grappling-first fighters who lack dynamic striking. We also have very good empirical evidence against Evans with his last fight against Michael Bisping. Bisping is a poor man's Chuck Liddell. He doesn't strike at the same level, he doesn't have the same power, he doesn't have the size, and he doesn't avoid the takedowns as well. But he still has the same type of skills. In that fight, Rashad was fortunate to squeek by with a split decision. Bisping was able to nullify most of his takedowns by scrambling to his feet. Bisping wasn't able to make Evans pay on the feet, something which Chuck Liddell will be sure to take advantage of over the course of the fight.
Rashad isn't without hope, however. He does come from the same camp that out-strategized the Liddell team last September. Unfortunately, if Greg Jackson has the secret for Evans to beat Liddell, he's a better man than I. Chuck only loses this fight by DQ, fluke cut, or (and most probable) diminished skill. Like Randy Couture, the same question has followed Chuck Liddell into his past few fights: Is he over the hill? One has to wonder if Chuck was unable to knockout Wanderlei Silva because of decreased reflexes or a power outage.
I still think this is Chuck's fight to lose though. Chuck should take this between 75 and 80% of the time, so there' value up until around -300.
Rich Franklin (-235) vs. Matt Hamill (+205)
Rich "Ace" Franklin is the former UFC Middleweight Champion and owns a 23-3 (12 [T]KO/9 SUB) MMA record. Franklin is one of the nomads of the sport, constantly changing his training camp. "Ace" complements his standup base with a credible ground game. He'll come into this fight 2-1 in his last three fights having defeated Travis Lutter by TKO, being dropped by Anderson Silva via TKO, and taking a decision from Yushin Okami. This is Rich's first fight at 205 since defeating Ken Shamrock in April of 2005. He is currently ranked as the third best Middleweight in the world and is unranked at Light Heavyweight according to Sherdog.com.
Matt "the Hammer" Hamill has a 4-1 (3 [T]KO)/0 SUB) MMA record. Hamill, who is deaf, relies on his power wrestling game to control opponents. In recent fights he has shown a tendency to use dirty boxing. Hamill is 2-1 in his last three fights with a TKO win over Tim Boetsch, a controversial split decision loss to Michael Bisping, and a TKO victory over Rex Holman.
I'm not sure what to think of Matt Hamill. In his fights with Rex Holman and Tim Boetsch, I saw him as a big, strong wrestler who also looked slow and lumbering in the Octagon. Rewatching the Bisping fight, though he slowed in the last two rounds, he looked a lot more swift in his movements. There are other conerns as well. He tends to hold his hands at his waist, bringing them up in defense only when his opponent throws. For such a strong and decorated wrestler, he seems to have problem maintaining top position and doesn't land much damage from there either. There's also questions about his cardio.
The jump in weight to 205 is the big question with Rich Franklin. I don't think it's going to be a problem here. Hamill is a powerful guy, but he didn't look to be much bigger than Mike Bisping who recently cut to 185.
Hamill might control the first round with his wrestling while fresh. In the second and third rounds, Franklin will be able to avoid the takedowns and start unloading with strikes. Like the Liddell fight, this line should still be good up around -300. It's all over the place as of right now (-235 on 5dimes, -255 on Bookmaker, and -285 on Bodog), but I think there's varying levels of value in all three lines.
Dan Henderson (-205) vs. Rousimar Palhares (+185)
Dan Henderson is the former Pride Middleweight (205) and Welterweight (183) champion, and also the winner of the UFC 17 tournament and RINGS King of Kings title. He is a two time Olympian in the 1992 and 1996 Summer Olympics in Greco-Roman wrestling. Henderson holds a 22-7 (10 [T]KO/1 SUB) MMA record while fighting for the team he co-founded Team Quest. Dan complements his world-class wrestling with a powerful boxing game. In his last three fights, Henderson is 1-2 losing by rear-naked choke to Anderson Silva, dropping a close decision to Quinton "Rampage" Jackson, and defeating Wanderlei Silva by TKO for Pride's Middleweight Title. He is currently ranked as the sixth best Light Heavyweight in the world and is unranked at Middleweight according to Sherdog.com
Rousimar "Toquinho" Palhares is the former Fury FC Middleweight Champion and holds an 8-1 (1 [T]KO/6 SUB) MMA record. As can be seen from his record, Palhares is known for an incredibly dynamic submission game. In his last 3 fights Palhares is 3-0 with first round submission victories over Ivan Salaverry in his UFC debut, Fabio Negao, and Daniel Acacio.
Stylistically, this fight is tough for Henderson. He has traditionally looked poor fighting jiu jitsu specialists like the Nogueira brothers and Murilo Bustamante in addition to being beaten by strong BJJ players Anderson Silva and Ricardo Arona. Henderson has had a tendency in the past to make the mistake to try and stand with opponents. However, that should be his strategy in this fight. Use his Greco-Roman background to fend off Palhares takedown attempts and keep the fight on the feet.
Why? Ignoring the fact that Palhares is a submission wizard, he will be coming into the fight with a decided height (and I presume reach) disadvantage. From the tape available, Palhares apperars to have OK standup, and is similar to Henderson in that regard. However, I think the size and strength of Henderson standing and especially in the clinch will be too much.
I'm going to recommend no play here, however. I think Henderson is strong enough, smart enough, and experienced enough to take a decision here. On the other hand, you'll often hear me harp on and on about fighters that can finish fights consistently. It's such a huge skill in MMA to be able to finish whether it be by KO or submission. Very few fighters (Lyoto Machida is an example) can dominate without that ability. Henderson is not a particularly dynamic finisher, while Palhares is. If this fight ends up on the ground, with either Henderson or especially Palhares on top, Dan is in danger of being submitted.
If you're an action junkie, take Dan here.
Karo Parisyan (-240) vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida (+200)
Karo "the Heat" Parisyan is a 6 time Junior National Judo champion and competed at the 2004 Olympic Judo trials. Currently training with Greg Jackson in Albuquerque, Parisyan brings an 18-5 (9 SUB/9 DEC) record into this fight. Parisyan is best known for being one of the rare fighters who has successfully translated his judo game into an effective MMA technique. In his last 3 fights, he is 3-1 losing by TKO to Thiago Alves and taking decisions from Ryo Chonan and Josh Burkman. Parisyan is currently ranked as the ninth best Welterweight in the world according to Sherdog.com.
Yoshiyuki "Zenko" Yoshida is a Cage Force and Shooto Veteran. He enters this fight with a 10-2 (6 [T]KO/2 SUB) MMA record. Unlike most Japanese imports, Yoshida has extensive cage experience from his time in Cage Force. A well-rounded fighter, Yoshida also builds off of a judo base. He is perfect in his last 3 fights, defeating War Machine/Jon Koppenhaver by Anaconda Choke, Dan Hardy by DQ, and Akira Kikuchi by TKO stoppage.
I'll just come out and say I still think this current line is off. I hopped on early when it opened at Yoshida +225. There's a copule reasons for this. First, Parisyan isn't much of a finisher. He doesn't have big KO power, his submissions apparently don't translate at a higher level, and he doesn't have the GNP to cause a stoppage. Yoshida, on the other hand, has shown himself to be a pretty good finisher so far and against fairly good competition. Second, Parisyan's judo game will not be as effective against a fellow judo player. That's not to say it will be ineffective, however, Yoshida shouldn't be caught off guard by the uniqueness of Karo's game.
My heart actually says Yoshida should be a favorite here, but my mind is cautious based on the experience level and quality of competition of the two. Still, I'm really low on Karo as a fighter because he can't finish guys and he doesn't have a style that he can get away with it. Take Yoshida up to +185 and feel pretty happy about it.
Nate Marquardt (-145) vs. Martin Kampmann (+120)
Nate "the Great" Marqurdt is a former 7 time King of Pancrase champion who currently trains out of Greg Jackson's Albuquerque camp. Marquardt currently holds a 26-8-2 (4 [T]KO/15 SUB) MMA record. He possesses a very good all around game and likes to use his strength and wrestling to control his fights. Nate is 1-2 in his last 3 fights losing a controversial decision to Thales Leites because of 2 point deductions, a 2nd round submission victory over Jeremy Horn, and a TKO loss to pound-for-pound king Anderson Silva. Marquardt is currently ranked as the eith best Welterweight in the world according to Sherdog.com.
Martin "the Hitman" Kampmann owns a 13-1 (6 [T]KO/4 SUB) MMA record. Currently fighting out of Xtreme Couture, Kampmann possesses a dangerous striking base complemented by an underrated ground game. In his last 3 fights Kampmann is undefeated with submission victories over Jorge Rivera and Drew McFedries and a decision victory over Thales Leites.
Martin Kampmann is a very good fighter, but Nate Marquardt should handle him fairly easily here. Marquardt's size and wrestling should be able to control Kampmann for three rounds. It's hard to envision any other scenario. Kampmann's striking is better all-around, but Nate's standup skill is good enough to keep it competitive standing while Kampmann lacks the power to land a KO blow.
I know plenty of people who loaded up on Marquardt at the opening line of -125 (myself included), and I think you can still throw a good chunk of change on now. This line still has value up to -200 or so, if not higher.
