Not many people foresaw Forrest Griffin dethroning Quinton "Rampage" Jackson for the UFC light heavyweight title or Rashad Evans scoring a brutal knockout over Chuck Liddell. But both former winners of The Ultimate Fighter reality series — Griffin from Season 1 and Evans from Season 2 — overcame the odds and now find themselves pitted against each other at the main event of UFC 92.
Ever since his TKO loss to Keith Jardine at UFC 66, Griffin (16-4) has utilized a much more well-rounded and patient stand-up repertoire rather than trying to brawl his way to victory and rely on his strong chin. Evans (17-0-1) has the faster hands and, as we now know from the Liddell KO, legitimate knockout power, even if it has to be precisely timed. Forrest has been training with Wandy and Wandy says his stand uo is top notch.
Against the old Forrest, Rashad could have used his quickness and movement to time Griffin and catch him with a fight-altering punch. But the new and improved Forrest will likely stay on the outside and use his height advantage to control the action. And as heavy as Rashad's hands might be, he probably doesn't pack as much of a punch as Rampage. If Rampage couldn't knock Griffin out, don't expect Evans to pull it off.
Usually Evans can rely on his collegiate wrestling background to take the fight to the ground if the striking game isn't working out for him. However, with Griffin's takedown defense, size and underrated grappling skills, Evans won't have any more success on the mat. Rashad is also one of the smaller 205-pound fighters in the UFC, while Griffin is likely the biggest, which won't help Evans's cause.
There is one wild card that can't be measured on paper: Evans's trainer, Greg Jackson. He masterminded a perfect game plan that saw Jardine picking apart Liddell for a decision win at UFC 76. One year later he did the same thing for Evans. So can he replicate that feat by guiding Evans to victory over Griffin? It's possible, but unless Griffin gets impatient and starts swinging wildly and leaving himself open to counters, a la his fight against Jardine, Forrest should persevere.
Griffin's not the most dynamic fighter or intimidating champion, but he's tough as hell and capable of holding his own against any type of fighter. He shocked the world by outpointing Rampage, but getting the title from him won't be an easy task for anyone.
In one of the other featured UFC 92 bouts, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (31-4-1) will defend his interim heavyweight title against former champion and fellow The Ultimate Fighter season 8 coach Frank Mir (11-3). this fight is nowhere near as straighforward as it seems. Although Nogueira's boxing is solid, he doesn't have the fastest hands in the world and he is prone to getting hit. Like most any fighter in the UFC, Mir does have a puncher's chance, and, I believe, a bit more. Mir has worked tirelessly on his striking abd his cardio. Mir possibly has the best hips of any HW in the UFC Still, Nogueira has proven time and again that he can absorb more punishment than virtually any other mixed martial artist in the world and keep moving forward, and I think that will prove to give the advantage to Mir. The main thing holding Nogueira back is if all of the punishment he's sustained in his career starts to catch up with him. Heath Herring, a man Nogueira had already defeated twice, did manage to catch Nogueira with a head kick at UFC 73 that nearly knocked him out cold. In fact, Herring could've forced a stoppage if he hadn't hesitated after landing the kick.
Nogueira wouldn't be the first iron-chinned warrior in a combat sport to suddenly lose his ability to sustain endless amounts of damage. If Mir does land a strike that staggers Nogueira, he'll have to pounce immediately to have a chance of winning a share of the heavyweight title and moving on to face Brock Lesnar. Mir's been rocked plenty of times himself, and he'll be especially vulnerable the longer the fight lasts, given his tendency to tire quickly.
"Rampage" vs. Silva: Who will show up in top form?
The most intriguing fight on the card looks to be Jackson (28-7) against Wanderlei Silva (32-8-1). Although Silva already owns two wins over Jackson from their days with Pride, both have had more ups and downs than the stock market.
As for Rampage, his boxing has improved since their previous meetings. We already know he has the ability to take Silva down, but now he has a legitimate chance to knock Silva out on the feet. As Dan Henderson proved, "The Axe Murderer" can be beaten to the punch.
Silva used his Thai clinch and brutal knees to dispatch of Jackson before and his leg kicks could also play a role. Silva didn't follow Jardine's lead and use leg kicks to pick apart Liddell. But Griffin, his training partner, picked Jackson apart with a number of leg kicks, a strategy that Silva could have success with if Rampage continues to neglect checking the leg strikes.
However, Jackson may be more prepared heading into the third fight with Silva, having trained with Michael Bisping and the Wolf's Lair team. Plus, Rampage has had considerably more success in the cage than Silva, who is still relatively new to the octagon.
It's risky to pick a guy that's already suffered two vicious knockout losses to the same fighter, but if either fighter has changed their ways and learned from their mistakes, it's Jackson. Silva's straightforward, aggressive style has served him well over the years, but judging by his losses to Liddell and Henderson, it's less likely that he'll adapt his style to compensate for Jackson's recent improvements.
