Author Topic: Fed judge: Gay marriage ban unconstitutional  (Read 3802 times)

Dos Equis

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Re: Fed judge: Gay marriage ban unconstitutional
« Reply #25 on: July 09, 2010, 05:12:13 PM »

Reliability simply refers to the number of times it's repeated and you get the same result.  Validity is the issue here.  If you're numbers are invalid, reliability is irrelevant.  This isn't upper level statistical multivariate analysis, it's basic.

You're taking the opposite extreme argument to new heights.  You don't need numerous variables for comparison, you simply need to evaluate people who got married and what percentage of those same people divorced.  Not whether Frank and Josephine married, but Ralph and Sally divorced.  It's really very simple.

Agree.

drkaje

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Re: Fed judge: Gay marriage ban unconstitutional
« Reply #26 on: July 09, 2010, 05:36:11 PM »

Reliability simply refers to the number of times it's repeated and you get the same result.  Validity is the issue here.  If your numbers are invalid, reliability is irrelevant.  This isn't upper level statistical multivariate analysis, it's basic.

You're taking the opposite extreme argument to new heights.  You don't need numerous variables for comparison, you simply need to evaluate people who got married and what percentage of those same people divorced.  Not whether Frank and Josephine married, but Ralph and Sally divorced.  It's really very simple.

Validity isn't the issue and it's not that simple because the next, illogical step in your argument is to basically follow cohorts.

Believe me, I get your point. It's just silly. :)

Following married groups is just silly. For that matter why not follow the legally/illegally separated and create a sorta married class, too?

The simplest, crude method still gives more useful information for what we're discussing. Ignore that I'd actually forgotten what the thread title was while typing this reply, LOL!

I ran out of beer (poor planning) and have to make a trip. TTYL!

Dos Equis

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Re: Fed judge: Gay marriage ban unconstitutional
« Reply #27 on: July 09, 2010, 05:55:16 PM »
Validity isn't the issue

If you don't care about accurate statistics, then validity isn't the issue. 

Skip8282

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Re: Fed judge: Gay marriage ban unconstitutional
« Reply #28 on: July 09, 2010, 06:00:55 PM »
Validity isn't the issue and it's not that simple because the next, illogical step in your argument is to basically follow cohorts.


Amazing coming from a man of science.  Validity is the issue and there is no "next step" regarding "cohorts", whatever that means.  Again, this is a basic research design we're talking about, not an advanced study to evaluate every other aspect of a persons life.


Quote
Believe me, I get your point. It's just silly. :)

Following married groups is just silly. For that matter why not follow the legally/illegally separated and create a sorta married class, too?


Just another attempt to muddy the waters.  Nobody is talking about "sorta married", seperated, kinda leaning towards divorce or whatever.  We're talking about married people and whether or not those same people get divorced.


Quote
The simplest, crude method still gives more useful information for what we're discussing. Ignore that I'd actually forgotten what the thread title was while typing this reply, LOL!

I ran out of beer (poor planning) and have to make a trip. TTYL!

I hope you're drinking Lager - best shit out there.

tonymctones

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Re: Fed judge: Gay marriage ban unconstitutional
« Reply #29 on: July 09, 2010, 06:08:26 PM »

Reliability simply refers to the number of times it's repeated and you get the same result.  Validity is the issue here.  If your numbers are invalid, reliability is irrelevant.  This isn't upper level statistical multivariate analysis, it's basic.

You're taking the opposite extreme argument to new heights.  You don't need numerous variables for comparison, you simply need to evaluate people who got married and what percentage of those same people divorced.  Not whether Frank and Josephine married, but Ralph and Sally divorced.  It's really very simple.
LOL i thought the same thing but figured it was useless to argue ive shown him the flaws in those calculations numerous times and he still cites them...

drkaje

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Re: Fed judge: Gay marriage ban unconstitutional
« Reply #30 on: July 09, 2010, 06:22:22 PM »
If you don't care about accurate statistics, then validity isn't the issue. 

You should get credit for having the balls to use accurate and statistics in the same sentence when discussing a highly politicized topic. :)

The marriage/divorce rate is least susceptible to political manipulation. I never argued it was perfect. The point (which I mistakingly thought painfully simple) is you can't follow 10, 100 or even 1000 marriages X amount of time or come up with a real rate. Also, a ton of variables exist that we cannot technically determine without interviewing and following every married individual. Also, there are still many people separated who are technically married yet not living as man and wife.

We all know those stats can say anything someone doing the math want. Polls are pretty much the same thing. I know a pollster and even he'll admit it comes down to how a question is asked when pushed hard enough.

There are just too many variables to ague Tony's method measures what it's supposed to measure. :)

Skip8282

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Re: Fed judge: Gay marriage ban unconstitutional
« Reply #31 on: July 09, 2010, 07:06:30 PM »
You should get credit for having the balls to use accurate and statistics in the same sentence when discussing a highly politicized topic. :)

The marriage/divorce rate is least susceptible to political manipulation. I never argued it was perfect. The point (which I mistakingly thought painfully simple) is you can't follow 10, 100 or even 1000 marriages X amount of time or come up with a real rate. Also, a ton of variables exist that we cannot technically determine without interviewing and following every married individual. Also, there are still many people separated who are technically married yet not living as man and wife.

We all know those stats can say anything someone doing the math want. Polls are pretty much the same thing. I know a pollster and even he'll admit it comes down to how a question is asked when pushed hard enough.

There are just too many variables to ague Tony's method measures what it's supposed to measure. :)



There are not countless variables which is why you can't name them and you keep referring to shit like "seperated" which is neither here nor there.  If you're not divorced, you're not divorced.  Period.

Of course you'll never get the "real" rate.  But it's more than feasible to take a representative, stratified national sample of say 1000 marriages (assuming we want to be about 95% or so confident), check up on them each year to determine if they are divorced (not seperated, not arguing, not thinking about, not "in the process", but DIVORCED), for a period of say 5 years, and then infer that the 5 year divorce rate = X.

If you were evaluating casuality, then you would have a point about numerous variables.  As it stands, we're just talking about divorce.

Now, whether or not anybody has given funding or really even wants to give funding...well, that's another story.

drkaje

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Re: Fed judge: Gay marriage ban unconstitutional
« Reply #32 on: July 09, 2010, 07:51:09 PM »


There are not countless variables which is why you can't name them and you keep referring to shit like "seperated" which is neither here nor there.  If you're not divorced, you're not divorced.  Period.

Of course you'll never get the "real" rate.  But it's more than feasible to take a representative, stratified national sample of say 1000 marriages (assuming we want to be about 95% or so confident), check up on them each year to determine if they are divorced (not seperated, not arguing, not thinking about, not "in the process", but DIVORCED), for a period of say 5 years, and then infer that the 5 year divorce rate = X.

If you were evaluating casuality, then you would have a point about numerous variables.  As it stands, we're just talking about divorce.

Now, whether or not anybody has given funding or really even wants to give funding...well, that's another story.

Causality would muddy things too much, LOL!

I guess we could always go to the divorce rate in children of divorced parents. :)

A five or ten year divorce rate study would definitely be interesting. But as you said, getting funding for something like that would be difficult. I'd be interested in knowing what it would be, especially in comparison to the two methods we've discussed.

Would having a real rate would change anyone's life?

Skip8282

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Re: Fed judge: Gay marriage ban unconstitutional
« Reply #33 on: July 09, 2010, 08:02:51 PM »

Would having a real rate would change anyone's life?



I suppose not, just an academic discussion really.  Getting back to the thread though, I'm not sure if gay people want an accurate rate.  Might scare them away from wanting to be married!

drkaje

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Re: Fed judge: Gay marriage ban unconstitutional
« Reply #34 on: July 09, 2010, 08:10:28 PM »


I suppose not, just an academic discussion really.  Getting back to the thread though, I'm not sure if gay people want an accurate rate.  Might scare them away from wanting to be married!

Even if the true, real rate were 99% people would still stroll down the aisle thinking they'd be in the 1% who stay married forever. :)

tonymctones

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Re: Fed judge: Gay marriage ban unconstitutional
« Reply #35 on: July 09, 2010, 09:18:03 PM »


I suppose not, just an academic discussion really.  Getting back to the thread though, I'm not sure if gay people want an accurate rate.  Might scare them away from wanting to be married!
shouldnt even be a discussiona in my mind marriage should be made a private institution and everyone should be given public unions under the govt...

you guys would be surpised how much research there is out there on this subject...most colleges have grad students help professors conduct social research I participated in quite a few for extra credit  ;D ;D ;D...

drkaje

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Re: Fed judge: Gay marriage ban unconstitutional
« Reply #36 on: July 10, 2010, 05:42:55 AM »
Maybe people should only be allowed to marry/divorce once. Repeat offenders have an even higher divorce rate.

Dos Equis

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Re: Fed judge: Gay marriage ban unconstitutional
« Reply #37 on: July 10, 2010, 11:51:44 AM »
I think people should wait until they are about 30 to get married.