The only problem with this matchup from a fan perspective is the possibility of a lay and pray victory by Jones. I doubt he will do such a thing because he's agressive and looks to finish fights, but he certainly has the ability to take Rua down and just hold him there.
Like Geo said above, I think leg kicks and properly gauging the distance of Jones' reach are his keys to victory. If he can do those things and avoid takedowns, he can put himself in a good position to knock Jones out or score on points ala Lyoto Machida style.
The two biggest variables at work here are Jones' nerves/inexperience and whether he has a suspect chin. In 11 or so fights, I don't think he has suffered as much as a scratch. If Shogun hits him in the mouth, will he fold or will he continue to press the action? If you never get hit, getting hit can be a traumatic experience-- especially for a young kid in his first title fight against a seasoned veteran like Shogun.
The other big question mark is Shoguns health and ring rust-- He hasn't fought since May and had surgery on his knee again. A 100% Shogun is capable of beating anybody at 205. A rusty Shogun who is not healthy can lose to a chump like Forrest Griffin.
In the end, this is a 5 rounder which I think works to Jones' advantage unfortunately. As the bigger, stronger, younger more active fighter with superior wrestling, I can't imagine Rua winning a decision here.
In summation, Rua wins by KO or TKO in one of the early rounds or he gets manhandled and either ends up submitted early or TKO'd by round 3 with vicious elbows. Im picking Shogun, but I realistically give him a 25% chance of winning.
