This isn't a bunch of partisan political pundits talking about which hand-picked poll they believe fits their agenda.
Rather, this is a global wagering firm - the top in the world - which collects & pays out large amounts of money on betting on world events. No Hardball or OReilly BS here... the money does the talking. Their current 2012 US presidential wagering is probably the statistical one to trust, since they're moving cold, hard money.
