I mean that I think he's the one whose ideas are the closest the those at the foundation of our Republic. Is he a politician? Sure. Can I be 100% sure that he means what he says and he'll do what he claims? No. But he's, in my estimation, the best person out of the names we hear tossed around. Does a vast majority of Americans disagree wit that estimation? Apparently yes.
I agree that someone polling at the bottom consistently and across polls by different organizations with disjoint sample sets is exceedingly unlikely, barring some sort of "revelation", to pull an upset and win.
Just to add something to this, along with your previous reference about polls being fairly accurate predictors. Political polls are more than just predictors. They influence people too, and that's why they're a dangerous tool no matter how they are used. As I mentioned, voters can be very fickle, and poll results can easily sway their opinion. Heck, even the wording of a question can sway people.
I agree, contingent to the definition of sizable. I think if he manages to capture anything over an 8% it would be significant. Again, not in the sense that he suddenly becomes a front-runner, but in the sense that it shows that there is more to the party than just Rick Santorum and his obsession with porn and how gay men use their cocks.
Oh come now. We all know that are certain red-meat issues for both parties. Issues relating to homosexuals and religion play well with the GOP base. They are red meat and there's others too.
Consider Rick Santorum. He says that he doesn't want Government intruding in the lives of people in the context of health insurance. But he finds it reasonable and proper for the Government to regulate the sexual practices of CONSENTING ADULTS on the grounds that he has a problem with those practices and he doesn't approve them. He holds similar opinions on issues like pornography.
Or Michelle Bachmann. She doesn't want Government intruding in the lives of people either. But she's deathly afraid that two people half a continent away will, somehow, remotely and magically, threaten and devalue her marriage and the precious, precious children of all Americans. So she wants the Government to keep the degenerates from doing that. How? By preventing them from being able to file joint tax returns, take advantage of inheritance laws, and be privy to visitation rights in the hospital.
These are by no means the only red meat issues. There are others. Some fall into niches of the above categories. Others are categories of their own. These sort of issues play a huge role when people are running for the nomination of their party but once they get it, some pivot away from them, to varying degrees. We can discuss this in more detail if you prefer.
Agree with most everything you said here.
People are not only fickle, theyre fucking stupid and leading them to vote for someone (from what Ive seen) is as simple as leading a lamb to the slaughter.
Polls can be manipulated to show whatever the pollster wants, simply by picking the audience that they are polling.
As you said, polls also are a good tool for manipulating voters. If they feel their candidate has no shot at winning, then they probably will vote a different way. People are weird like that, almost no one has any conviction anymore. Their ideals change with the winds, their choices change from minute to minute.
And totally agree on the "red meat" issues, people get really fired up over stupid shit like gay marriage, especially Santorum who has made Porn and Gays a cornerstone of his election. To me, this is more a reflection on the voters than Santorum, it means there are enough people out there who really care about that shit to warrant him pandering to them. That scares me. In a time of economic crisis where our liberties are being stripped one after the other, the fact people are so hung up on what people do in their own bedroom simply horrifys me.
It shows an incredible lack of connection to whats going on in the country, that people are more concerned with forcing their beliefs and feelings on others, rather than letting other people make their own choices, just as they themselves are allowed to choose.
And the part about Ron Paul being closest to the foundation of our republic, I emphatically agree. To me, he represents the ideals this country is founded on. A few of his ideas are out there, yes, but more than likely those wouldnt pass through congress anyway. And you know with RP, he would respect Congress' power, as he would uphold the constitution.
I
s he a politician? Yes, but they all are, youre rolling the dice with any one of them. To me, Id rather roll the dice with the most seemingly principled one, who's ideas are most rooted in personal liberty and fiscal responsability, than shady big government types who only preach what people want to hear when theyre on screen, and then turn around and do the exact opposite.
Paul says the same thing, no matter whether the people like it or not. Its part of the reason he's perfect for the job, and part of the reason he'll never win.
Its sad to say, but he's too honest to win. People no longer respect that IMHO, they want someone who is going to say what they want to here, even if the next week he says something completely different to someone else.
