The electoral path to 270 continues to shrink for Willard.
Why Romney’s Pulling Back on PA Ad SpendingJohn Micek reads the new Quinnipiac poll, which finds PA slipping further away from Romney.
Obama leads by 11, and the internals are even worse for Mitt. Check out that 24-point gap with women!:
•Pennsylvania women voters back Obama 59 – 35 percent, while men go 50 percent for Romney and 47 percent for Obama. Independent voters back Obama 58 – 36 percent.
•Among Obama voters, 59 percent strongly favor him while 33 percent like him with reservations and 7 percent say their vote is against Romney.
•Among Romney voters, 41 percent strongly favor him while 37 percent like him with reservations and 22 percent say they are voting against Obama.
•Obama has a 53 – 42 percent favorability rating, while Romney has a negative 39 – 47 percent favorability rating.
•The economy is the most important issue in the election for 54 percent of Pennsylvania voters, with 20 percent who pick health care and 8 percent who cite the budget deficit.
•Obama would do a better job on the economy than Romney, Pennsylvania likely voters say 48 – 44 percent. The president is better on health care, voters say 51 – 41 percent.
•Obama’s policies would hurt rather than help them, Pennsylvania voters say 37 – 23 percent, while 37 percent see no difference. Romney would hurt rather than help, voters say 32 – 26 percent, while 37 percent see no difference.As you can see, people have mostly made up their minds by this point, and there isn’t a whole lot more that spending on persuasion can do, which is probably why Mitt’s been pulling back ad spending.
PA is a turnout battle state. There aren’t a whole lot of swing voters, rather the party bases are pretty evenly matched and the swing state status is more about who actually shows up to vote.
The Romney campaign’s best hope is that the voter ID law is upheld, which would basically do all the work for them, suppressing Democratic turnout in the big population centers, and leaving Romney to focus on turning out Republican voters in the T and Republican-leaning suburbs.
