Romney's Battleground State Problem

[blacken700]

Are there reasonable explanations for the gap between national and state polls? Nate Silver has covered a few explanations, but here's a more speculative possibility--and it is just a possibility. Simply put: campaigns might matter. There hasn't been a campaign where the battleground states have endured so many advertisements for so long before the rest of the country even began to tune in. This was also a campaign where the conventional wisdom has long held that attacks on Romney did alot of damage, especially in Ohio. While most of the country tuned in and saw Romney unadulterated by months of advertisements, voters in the battleground states might have more entrenched and cynical views of the Republican nominee. Relatedly, there might just be fewer undecided or weak supporters in the battleground states than there are nationally, in part because they've been thinking about this longer. It's even possible that Democrats might be more enthusiastic and energized in the battleground states than they are nationally, which might leave them better positioned in likely voter models.
 

http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/108459/romneys-battleground-state-problem

[Soul Crusher]

Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun National Poll: R 47%, 0 46%
 http://www.monmouth.edu/ ^

Posted on Thursday, October 11, 2012 3:38:43 PM by Arthurio

NATIONAL: ROMNEY EDGES OBAMA IN MONMOUTH POLL

Post-debate: more voters like Romney, give him edge on key issues

The latest Monmouth University Poll of likely voters in this year’s national presidential race shows Mitt Romney with a nominal, but statistically insignificant, one point lead over Barack Obama. As a result of the first presidential debate, more U.S. voters feel they now have a better sense of the GOP challenger’s plans for the country and give him the edge on key issues.

Currently, Gov. Romney leads the incumbent by 47% to 46% among likely American voters.

This marks a reversal of the 3-point edge Pres. Obama held in the Monmouth University Poll one month ago.


(Excerpt) Read more at monmouth.edu ...

[blacken700]

note the title battleground states

[Soul Crusher]

note the title battleground states

Ras has Romney up by 1 in the battlegrounds and the move in other polls is towards Romney. 

Landslide coming. 

Blacken - its time for you to paNIC

[240 is Back]

Ras has Romney up by 1 in the battlegrounds and the move in other polls is towards Romney. 

an average of all the battlegrounds has Romney up by 1?   which states did they cite?

[flipper5470]

Romney is up by 7 in Florida....

This shouldn't be suprising in the least.  The narrative over the past week has been Obama apologizing for losing and talking about Big Bird...WTF?  Big Bird?   You want to get re-elected on a Big Bird platform?

[Fury]

Romney is up by 7 in Florida....

This shouldn't be suprising in the least.  The narrative over the past week has been Obama apologizing for losing and talking about Big Bird...WTF?  Big Bird?   You want to get re-elected on a Big Bird platform?

Certainly not going to get re-elected running on a platform of his work over the last 4 years.