I've been following Arlovski's career for a while. He has certainly had an interesting ride and had a win streak that ended only recently. Having said that, I think he will lose and it will be pretty brutal. Overeem grew careless after the Lesnar fight, however, he learnt a lot after his two brutal loses to Bigfoot and Browne. I watched his fights against Dos Santos and Struve and he looked in top shape.
They've known each other but were never friends. Reportedly Arlovski is a bit of a weirdo and Overeem a bit arrogant. Mike Jackson chose to train Arlovski, I wonder how Overeem felt about that.
I think Overeem may get a shot at the title yet. I don't know where Arlovski will go from here if he loses. His win streak was a bit of a cinderella run, he did very well in some fights (Browne, Bigfoot) but stuggled massively in others (Mir, Shaub).