Didn't answer the question...if you believe the poll to be flawed, how many points do you think he gained?
Please let me be clearer - I believe Trump is climbing back up toward his previous high polling level (national average) of 44%. He hit this level FIVE times in the last 14 months, and he's at 41.7% today... If he keeps kicking ass, he will get up to 44% again nationally, and eventually another few points, stealing support as it falls away from Gary and Jill.
Macro doesn't lie. It was hella accurate in 2012, and it'll be accurate this time too. hilary has a steady 4-5 point lead over Trump. It's been pretty consistent. For every poll showing him grabbing ground in OH, there is a poll showing she's within the margin of error in MISS or actually tied at 40% in TX.
He has little GOTV effort. She can bribg, cheat, motivate in all of those close states. He has to guard ALL OF THEM and he has to win ALMOST ALL of the swing states, to get it. She's in the 280 vote zone already. He has to be PERFECT to beat her - and even then, she can just claim putin stole it for Trump
I think Trump bounces along in a nice 3-5 point up and down, since last year. 44% national average is the peak. 47% seems to be her ceiling. He's never hit 45. She's passed 50.
Numbers MACRO don't lie.