Author Topic: Nate Silver's 538 changing methodology to give Clinton edge  (Read 373 times)

Yamcha

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 13292
  • Fundie
Nate Silver's 538 changing methodology to give Clinton edge
« on: September 26, 2016, 07:13:00 AM »
An Autist from Reddit:

Nate Silver from 538 was the one who repeatedly said Trump couldn't win the GOP nomination. And now he's not only trying to frame the narrative, he's changing his methods to further skew polls in Clinton's direction.

PROOF:

Today's polls come from 5 different pollsters. 538 are adjusting for house effect, which means they're adding or subtracting percentages based on a pollster's previous inherent bias. That's not necessarily a bad method. Now he's changing the house effects mid-race to help Clinton.

Proof that 538 changed 4 out of 5 pollsters today to help Clinton:

 

QUINNIPIAC

This pollster is considered +1R --> adjust polls +1 in Clinton's favor. Last update on that Sep 22 in 4 polls. Proof.

TODAY'S POLL: +2 ADJUSTMENT IN CLINTON'S FAVOR. WHAT CHANGED, NATE?

 

CNN

No House Effect, no adjustment. Last update on Sept. 14 showing no adjustment. Proof.

TODAY'S POLL: +1 ADJUSTMENT IN CLINTON'S FAVOR. WHAT CHANGED, NATE?

 

RKM

Usually +1D --> adjust polls +1 in Trump's favor. Last update on that Sep 4 in 1 poll. Proof.

TODAY'S POLL: +1 ADJUSTMENT IN CLINTON'S FAVOR (CHANGE OF +2 IN CLINTON'S FAVOR FROM LAST UPDATE). WHAT CHANGED, NATE?

 

SurveyUSA

This pollster is usually +1D --> adjust polls +1 in Trump's favor. Last updates on that Sept 13 and Sept 14 in 4 polls total. Proof.

TODAY'S POLL: NO ADJUSTMENT (A CHANGE OF +1 CLINTON). WHAT CHANGED, NATE?

And I haven't even mentioned that he unskews LA Times by 4 points against Trump ...

If you're tired of being lied to, show this to people who don't believe the establishment will do anything to keep their narrative. Register to vote. Vote Trump!
a

Yamcha

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 13292
  • Fundie
Re: Nate Silver's 538 changing methodology to give Clinton edge
« Reply #1 on: September 26, 2016, 07:19:24 AM »
And yet...

a

240 is Back

  • Getbig V
  • *****
  • Posts: 102387
  • Complete website for only $300- www.300website.com
Re: Nate Silver's 538 changing methodology to give Clinton edge
« Reply #2 on: September 26, 2016, 09:14:08 AM »
And yet...



most of those red states have far smaller population and are typically repub states.

yes, if the election were held today, hillary would win.  It'd be close enough to come down to a few contested states, and she always cheats to win those coin flips ;)