He is correct about live betting. It was all over the place in the early days.
It's pretty easy to beat bookmakers here in the UK as they offer very generous lines. However once they notice you're winning regularly they stop taking your bets or close your accounts.
Don't think it's possible to beat US bookmakers unless you have some inside knowledge or are completely dedicated to one or two discipline, but like your friend said it becomes a grind and where is the fun in that.
What?! I was just talking to my mom today about counting cards. She said it seems unfair that casinos would ban you for simply playing the game, and the thought processes of your brain. I agree with that - and it's not like the house isn't favoured overwhelmingly despite that. I didn't realize they would close your accounts. Geez.
I agree on it not being fun. I was actually going to offer my friend to double his bet via my money, and for him to take 10% of the winnings for doing so. The way I see it - if my friend is winning on average $5,000 a year [or whatever it is], then I could make $4,500, and he can do all the heavy lifting, in terms of betting.
That said, the only three times I talked to him about his bets, he was wrong and I was right:
Bisping vs. GSP - he voted for Bisping. I felt there was close to a 0% chance that St-Pierre could come back to fight if he wasn't damn sure he was going to win. Legacy matters to much to St-Pierre. I think money was a motivating factor for Georges in that fight...but I think it was more a matter of legacy [becoming champ-champ].
Khabib vs. McGregor - he voted on McGregor. Keep in mind that at that point, Khabib hadn't even lost a round. In fact, round three of that fight was the first round Khabib ever lost, and that actually impressed me about McGregor, and made me think he wasn't washed up yet [I felt he was partying too much, based on videos I saw of him online]. Yes, Khabib had never fought anyone in the top six, but he also never lost a round! That led me to believe he could have at the least been winning against people above the top six [if not in the same dominating fashion as those outside that status].
Khabib vs. Poirier - I REALLY had a hard time on this one...Poirier's cardio was inhuman in his most recent fight with Max Holloway, and I did think there was a possibility Poirier would win. When Poirier didn't make it out of round three...I realized how good McGregor still was for making it almost midway into the fourth versus Khabib. If you held a gun to my head and made me bet on that...I would have bet on Khabib, and I even wrote that in a text to my friend during that fight.
I was so excited watching that fight, I had to smoke a cigarette.
So...three for three, my choices beat my friend's choices, who has been doing this for extra income since around 2007.
A part of me would like to get involved with it...but if it's a big grind just to make the equivalent of minimum wage, or comes with a massive amount of anxiety and stress...then I would probably not do it.
I'd love to see a GSP vs. Khabib fight.
If they keep feeding Conor weathered veterans, that might be a few easy bucks [bet $1,000 to win $300, or whatever it is]. I don't think the UFC wants to lose their cash cow just yet.
