The consensus for the past few years is that you can gain muscle in a caloric deficit naturally, but it happens mostly in previously untrained individuals or ones that are very new to lifting. Newbie gains of piss…
As I stated earlier, one of the things I found interesting about the study is that the gain in muscle mass was observed in the second three months of the study. And notomorrow just posted a study that kind of aligned with that, I'll have to check it out more in depth when I get time.
Just spitballing here, but most bodybuilders are in a caloric deficit for about 12 weeks before a show. It can vary- sometimes it's 16 weeks- but in general it's not much longer than 3 months. What if that is just the necessary time the body needs to adjust itself to making gains in a deficit? From a physiological standpoint, if you were eating regularly or even bulking and you suddenly cut calories, your body is worried about lack of resources to maintain itself, so it will drop resource-intensive muscle at a relatively high ratio. But maybe after a few months of high intensity activity coupled with enough nutrients to maintain itself, your body begins to understand that it makes more sense to begin adding muscle again?
I think one thing to consider with the untrained vs trained is that even with a big calorie surplus, natural trained athletes are going to hit a gains ceiling, so I don't think it's that realistic to say because certain things are more easily observable in untrained people it has no value for people with more experience.