We might have us a dog fight in both parties.
Roger Stone: Giuliani Must Win Iowa or N.H. Tuesday, November 20, 2007 11:29 AM
Warning that former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani "must score early or die," veteran political strategist Roger Stone says that winning the early primary contests in Iowa and New Hampshire are crucial to his hopes of winning the GOP nomination.
Writing in his "The Stone Zone," the man once known as former President Richard Nixon's "man in Washington" and top Reagan campaign aide questioned assertions by Giuliani campaign staffers that they can afford to lose early state contests in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina and still win the nomination in later contests in delegate rich states like Florida, New Jersey, New York, and other states poised to vote on Feb. 5.
They seem, he writes ,"to have taken a page" from the failed campaign strategy of the late former Texas Gov. John B. Connally.
The winners in Iowa and New Hampshire, Stone predicts, will head into Florida on Jan. 29 and the multi-state Feb. 5 primary "with substantial forward momentum. Voters have less time to scrutinize the red-hot front-runner with less time between the pivotal early caucasus and primaries."
Noting that former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney holds significant but not insurmountable leads in both Iowa and New Hampshire, he observes that "although South Carolina looks more muddled today, Romney would jump ahead there if he comes out ahead in the two earliest contests."
While Giuliani enjoys a respectable lead in Florida, Stone writes, he would see those numbers melt like the New Hampshire snow if Romney gets to the Sunshine State after having won three in a row.
Stone attributes Giuliani's "continued dominance in the National polls" to his strong name identification as well as "missteps by Senator John McCain" which caused his poll numbers to plunge.
According to Stone, Romney's lead in Iowa and New Hampshire is based on heavy spending on television advertising funded by Romney's very deep pockets. "Voter impressions and support for Romney," he writes "having been newly created by television, is soft. That Giuliani will gain and Romney will slip when America's mayor begins his campaign television advertising is a foregone conclusion."
"With the growing possibility that Romney and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee will finish one and two in Iowa," Stone writes, Giuliani could benefit from a split among Evangelical conservatives between both men in New Hampshire.
He suggests that such a strategy "requires Giuliani to finish a close third in Iowa and a Romney/Huckabee split to win New Hampshire in a multi-candidate field. New Hampshire has a moderate Republican tradition and a large number of Catholics, both potential booms to Giuliani."
Giuliani, Stone says, could then finish among the top two in South Carolina but win Florida and surge into February's contests with a head of steam and clinch the nomination there.
http://www.newsmax.com/insidecover/giuliani_iowa_n.h./2007/11/20/50890.html
