Based upon the screening process of the last poll (i missed the name of it - on Hardball now), Barrack Obama leads 32% to hilary/Edwards at 24% each.
This poll has been consistently correct. In 2004, this poll correctly predicted Kerry as the winner when no others did. It first asks questions to ascertain which people being polled are most likely to ACTUALLY spend an hour waiting in line to vote.
Iowa will come down to ONE thing. If young voters come out, Barrack will win by 10 points. If they do not, it'll be a crapshoot that'll take days to calculate, and any one of those 3 will squeak out with the win.
Imagine if Obama wins. Last year, Kerry won Iowa and the dems nationally pretty much assigned him the win. He won in most other places (hometown exceptions - dean got VT, etc). If he gets Iowa, he'll be the frtonrunner for NH. He wins both, CLinton cannot recover.
