CIA: AL QAEDA NEAR DEFEAT

[240 is Back]

As predicted by the pentagon 18 months ago, Bush will declare victory over Al-Q in October 2008.


Less than a year after his agency warned of new threats from a resurgent al-Qaeda, CIA Director Michael V. Hayden now portrays the terrorist movement as essentially defeated in Iraq and Saudi Arabia and on the defensive throughout much of the rest of the world, including in its presumed haven along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.

In a strikingly upbeat assessment, the CIA chief cited major gains against al-Qaeda's allies in the Middle East and an increasingly successful campaign to destabilize the group's core leadership.

While cautioning that al-Qaeda remains a serious threat, Hayden said Osama bin Laden is losing the battle for hearts and minds in the Islamic world and has largely forfeited his ability to exploit the Iraq war to recruit adherents. Two years ago, a CIA study concluded that the U.S.-led war had become a propaganda and marketing bonanza for al-Qaeda, generating cash donations and legions of volunteers.

All that has changed, Hayden said in an interview with The Washington Post this week that coincided with the start of his third year at the helm of the CIA.

"On balance, we are doing pretty well," he said, ticking down a list of accomplishments: "Near strategic defeat of al-Qaeda in Iraq. Near strategic defeat for al-Qaeda in Saudi Arabia. Significant setbacks for al-Qaeda globally -- and here I'm going to use the word 'ideologically' -- as a lot of the Islamic world pushes back on their form of Islam," he said.

The sense of shifting tides in the terrorism fight is shared by a number of terrorism experts, though some caution that it is too early to tell whether the gains are permanent. Some credit Hayden and other U.S. intelligence leaders for going on the offensive against al-Qaeda in the area along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, where the tempo of Predator strikes has dramatically increased from previous years. But analysts say the United States has caught some breaks in the past year, benefiting from improved conditions in Iraq, as well as strategic blunders by al-Qaeda that have cut into its support base.

"One of the lessons we can draw from the past two years is that al-Qaeda is its own worst enemy," said Robert Grenier, a former top CIA counterterrorism official who is now managing director of Kroll, a risk consulting firm. "Where they have succeeded initially, they very quickly discredit themselves."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/29/AR2008052904116_pf.html

[Deicide]

As predicted by the pentagon 18 months ago, Bush will declare victory over Al-Q in October 2008.


Less than a year after his agency warned of new threats from a resurgent al-Qaeda, CIA Director Michael V. Hayden now portrays the terrorist movement as essentially defeated in Iraq and Saudi Arabia and on the defensive throughout much of the rest of the world, including in its presumed haven along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.

In a strikingly upbeat assessment, the CIA chief cited major gains against al-Qaeda's allies in the Middle East and an increasingly successful campaign to destabilize the group's core leadership.

While cautioning that al-Qaeda remains a serious threat, Hayden said Osama bin Laden is losing the battle for hearts and minds in the Islamic world and has largely forfeited his ability to exploit the Iraq war to recruit adherents. Two years ago, a CIA study concluded that the U.S.-led war had become a propaganda and marketing bonanza for al-Qaeda, generating cash donations and legions of volunteers.

All that has changed, Hayden said in an interview with The Washington Post this week that coincided with the start of his third year at the helm of the CIA.

"On balance, we are doing pretty well," he said, ticking down a list of accomplishments: "Near strategic defeat of al-Qaeda in Iraq. Near strategic defeat for al-Qaeda in Saudi Arabia. Significant setbacks for al-Qaeda globally -- and here I'm going to use the word 'ideologically' -- as a lot of the Islamic world pushes back on their form of Islam," he said.

The sense of shifting tides in the terrorism fight is shared by a number of terrorism experts, though some caution that it is too early to tell whether the gains are permanent. Some credit Hayden and other U.S. intelligence leaders for going on the offensive against al-Qaeda in the area along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, where the tempo of Predator strikes has dramatically increased from previous years. But analysts say the United States has caught some breaks in the past year, benefiting from improved conditions in Iraq, as well as strategic blunders by al-Qaeda that have cut into its support base.

"One of the lessons we can draw from the past two years is that al-Qaeda is its own worst enemy," said Robert Grenier, a former top CIA counterterrorism official who is now managing director of Kroll, a risk consulting firm. "Where they have succeeded initially, they very quickly discredit themselves."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/29/AR2008052904116_pf.html

Hmmm....

[shootfighter1]

Interesting.  Hope its actually true.

[headhuntersix]

We've killed or captured alot of the guys who can plan and finance 911's and Cole/Kobar tower attacks. We're killing alot of the rank and file guys who plant IED's and plan the suicide attacks but its the guys who run AQI and AQ that we're getting at. It takes time to replace guys like that. Money guys and guys with networks etc.

[Decker]

Great.  The 1 or 2% portion of the IRaqi resistance that was reportedly Al Qaeda has been crushed by the US invasion.

It only took 4,000+ american lives and $540,000,000,000.

These people have never heard of a cost/benefit analysis I take it.

[headhuntersix]

Decker we pay 5 grand for toliet seats.

[OzmO]

This is all a good thing, but.....


I have to be suspicious becuase i never saw the threat that great to begin with after Afghanistan.   And it only stands to reason, that pressure had put on them world wide (outside of Iraq) for the last 4-5 years diminished them even more.

So for them to say AQ is nearly defeated is probably not exactly true in 2 ways:



1.  You can't really totally stamp them out even if you get OBL, you can only render them ineffective to a certain degree and they will always have the potential to cause problems of regain strength

2.  Because the threat isn't all it has been made up to be, saying they are nearly defeated is easy to do and may not exactly be what the news release implies.  In other words,  It's tainted with propaganda.

[headhuntersix]

Ozmo I agree with point 1  while I disagree with point 2.

The threat is real....the general public is never going to know to what extent the threat is at any given time. I see things ona tactical level that atleast sheds light on what AQ/AQI is trying to do. It leads me to believe that they are trying to do more as far as attacks her and abroad. I can say with some certainty that while I havbe no knowledge of what they're doing or what we';ve done here to stop them, that we have killed alot of planners and money guys and its put a hurt into their operations. I would expect sopmebody else to rear their heads and take up the fight. I would also say this might be a good time to chnage gears as to how we deal with some of the root causes of AQ. Deal with the House of Saud and force both Israel and the Palestianians to work something out.

If Opec isn't going to play ball,recent signs say they are going to increase production, then supporting a corrupt regeme in Saudi Arabia does not appear to be doing anything for us. If we control Iraqi oil, then except the trade off and tell the Saudi's to go pound sand unless they start to liberalize their society, atleast in keeping with some of their moderate neighbors.

[Decker]

Decker we pay 5 grand for toliet seats.

You must crap like royalty.

[OzmO]

Ozmo I agree with point 1  while I disagree with point 2.

The threat is real....the general public is never going to know to what extent the threat is at any given time. I see things ona tactical level that atleast sheds light on what AQ/AQI is trying to do. It leads me to believe that they are trying to do more as far as attacks her and abroad. I can say with some certainty that while I havbe no knowledge of what they're doing or what we';ve done here to stop them, that we have killed alot of planners and money guys and its put a hurt into their operations. I would expect sopmebody else to rear their heads and take up the fight. I would also say this might be a good time to chnage gears as to how we deal with some of the root causes of AQ. Deal with the House of Saud and force both Israel and the Palestianians to work something out.

If Opec isn't going to play ball,recent signs say they are going to increase production, then supporting a corrupt regeme in Saudi Arabia does not appear to be doing anything for us. If we control Iraqi oil, then except the trade off and tell the Saudi's to go pound sand unless they start to liberalize their society, atleast in keeping with some of their moderate neighbors.

Your point in someways supports my 2nd assertion.   The reason i say the threat isn't as much as we are led to believe is that the whole security thing in the USA is a sham.

For less than few thousands dollars someone can stop air traffic for at least 2 days.   Anyone can do it.   Why hasn't it been done?  probably cause the threat isn't as bad as it's made out to be.
Don't misunderstand.  it IS a threat.  I'm trying to say it's not.

[headhuntersix]

All that over-spending was to pour money into the Black budgets of the 80's. It doesn't work like that now....I guess for a time it was more open but now cash just disappears and 10 years later u have Hover tanks and the Aurora. Plus all those nice little brush wars in South America..this time it will be Africa.


I guess we could go round and round O, I'\d say its because we've killed the talented guys.

[OzmO]

All that over-spending was to pour money into the Black budgets of the 80's. It doesn't work like that now....I guess for a time it was more open but now cash just disappears and 10 years later u have Hover tanks and the Aurora. Plus all those nice little brush wars in South America..this time it will be Africa.


I guess we could go round and round O, I'\d say its because we've killed the talented guys.

Seriously, I think the job done by the military and intelligence is fantastic.

[headhuntersix]

We've gotten better...just like Vietnam..we were better the Viet Cong at their own tactics and we're better then AQI. Its not helpful that every time we roll into one of these things we reinvent the wheel but when we know where the bad guys are we kill em.