May 29, 2009
Obama Most Popular Leader, Poll Finds
PARIS — President Barack Obama remains by far the most popular world leader among people in major Western nations and is the one political figure on whom people consistently pin their hopes in the economic crisis, according to new polls conducted for the International Herald Tribune.
About 80 percent of people in France, Germany, Italy and Spain have a positive view of Mr. Obama, a ratio that declines only slightly, to about 70 percent, in the other two countries surveyed, Britain and the United States. The only politician who comes close is Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, who gets a positive rating from two-thirds of those in Continental Europe but from only one-third of Britons and Americans.
The new survey, conducted by Harris International for the I.H.T. and the cable news channel France 24, reinforces the results of one conducted a month earlier showing that about half of those surveyed expressed the most confidence in Mr. Obama’s ability to solve the economic crisis, with Mrs. Merkel coming in second, at 22 percent.
The surveys found that a solid majority of people in the major Western democracies expect a rise in political extremism in their countries as a result of the economic crisis. Even in the United States and Italy, the two countries whose citizens are least likely to hold that view, fully 53 percent of those surveyed say more extremism is “certain to happen” or “probable” in the next three years.
“I believe there will be a rise in political extremism in the United States, particularly from the right, between now and the next presidential election,” said Robert J. Kepka of Addison, Illinois, one of the people surveyed who agreed to a follow-up interview by e-mail. He said he expected such a result, however, “not as a result of the current economic crisis, but rather the perceived erosion of conservative Christian values.”
The surveys found a widespread expectation of unrest, with strikes and demonstrations forecast by 86 percent of those in the six countries. Half of those surveyed expected riots in their own countries.
The surveys exposed pockets of optimism amid the gloom. For instance, two in three people thought the crisis could result in reform of the worldwide economic systems.
The story on the home front, however, was quite different. Around half of all respondents said they worried at least somewhat about losing their job or their pension, being unable to afford medical care, or being able to afford basic utilities like electricity, water or the telephone.
And many even worried about becoming homeless some day, though few thought it would become a reality in the next three years. The highest number, at 32 percent, was in the United States.
The latest poll was conducted online from April 29 to May 6 by Harris Interactive, in partnership with France 24 and the International Herald Tribune, among 6,332 adults, ages 16 to 64, in Britain, France, Germany, Spain and the United States and adults, ages 18 to 64, in Italy. The data for age, gender, education, region and Internet propensity were weighted when necessary to bring them into line with the current proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was applied to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.
Harris Interactive relied on the Harris Poll Online panel as the primary sample source for the survey.
The panel consists of potential respondents who have been recruited through online, telephone, mail and in-person approaches. Because the sample is not random but is based on those who agreed to participate, no statistical estimate of sampling error can be calculated.
