Lockerbie Bomber Freed From Prison on Compassionate Grounds

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WTF Scotland?   

I would've figured the Scots would have our backs...


"The man responsible for the 1988 Lockerbie bombing returned home to Libya on Thursday to cheering crowds, and throngs of people waving posters of the convicted killer, who flew to his native country to die after Scotland released him from prison.

Scotland's decision to free Abdel Baset al-Megrahi outraged some relatives of the 270 people killed when the jetliner blew up over a Scottish town.

Abdel Baset al-Megrahi, 57, spent roughly 11 days behind bars for each victim in the bombing. President Barack Obama said the decision to free the terminally ill bomber on compassionate grounds was a mistake... "


http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,540967,00.html

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The end game: The fate of Lockerbie bomber


Published Date: 16 August 2009
OF ALL the numbers in the contacts book of US secretary of state Hillary Clinton, it is fair to assume that up until last week that of one time Tartan Army regular and reformed fitness freak Kenny MacAskill was not among them.
In his short reign as justice secretary in the SNP Government, MacAskill has never been shy of courting controversy, most notably by threatening the drinks industry with a series of draconian restrictions on alcohol sales. But when the world's best known female politician came on the line on Friday afternoon, asking to know what exactly he was up to, MacAskill might well have been excused for reaching for a nip of the strong stuff himself.

Elsewhere in the Scottish Government offices on Friday it was business as usual – ministers were launching a consultation into the problem of high hedges. But in MacAskill's office and that of First Minister Alex Salmond, a genuine geopolitical dilemma of the very first degree was emerging.

Less than 48 hours earlier, the BBC had reported that MacAskill had decided to release the Lockerbie bomber, Abdelbaset Ali Mohmed al-Megrahi, convicted in 2001 of the killings of 270 people who died after Pan Am Flight 103 exploded over the skies of southern Scotland.

Not known for taking "flyers", the BBC report was treated as fact, despite the insistence of MacAskill and the entire Scottish Government that, in fact, no decision had yet been taken.

On Friday lunchtime, Megrahi's lawyers announced that an appeal against his conviction was being dropped. Charges of a cover-up emerged immediately.

On both sides of the Atlantic, total confusion reigned. In Washington, lawyer Frank Duggan, who represents the Victims of Pan Am Flight 103 group, received a call from Edinburgh to inform him that, yes, Megrahi's appeal was not going ahead but no, a decision on his release had not yet been made. After the call, Duggan declared it "inconceivable" that MacAskill – whom he had talked to a few weeks earlier – was preparing to release the bomber. And yet, in Edinburgh, there was barely anybody to support his view. Before the end of this month, the Scottish Government will announce its decision. This weekend, the age-old question of politics is being asked: cock-up or conspiracy? If MacAskill has agreed to Megrahi's release, why? And, furthermore, why did it emerge in the bizarre way it did last week?

It was last October that confirmation came through that Megrahi, who is serving out his life sentence in a specially built cell in Greenock prison, had advanced prostate cancer. Three months earlier, the Criminal Cases Review Commission had agreed that he deserved a second appeal. Now the issue of the Libyan's health was to complicate the case further.

The appeal was due to begin in earnest next month, and those who have followed the Lockerbie case for the last two decades were waiting with anticipation. For two years, ever since the Scottish Criminal Cases Review Commission (SCCRC) had agreed the appeal should go ahead, there had been speculation about the evidence it might bring forward. Scotland on Sunday reported in 2007 that Megrahi's lawyers would put forward new evidence that a key witness in the case, Maltese shopkeeper Tony Gauci, had been paid a £2m reward by US investigators for giving crucial prosecution evidence. We also reported how a retired CIA agent had provided new evidence which suggested that Iran was behind the bombing, and had then paid a terrorist group known as the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine to carry out the attack. Perhaps most damning of all, there was talk that evidence had been tampered with by Scottish and American police so as to lead to Megrahi's conviction.

Despite this, the Crown Office and many senior legal figures in Scotland remained convinced that the police had nailed their man and that Megrahi was undoubtedly involved in the atrocity – even if other unknown forces were just as guilty. Many legal figures were eager for the appeal to go ahead to quash what they claimed were conspiracy theories and press-driven leaks. That was the position at the beginning of the summer.

But Megrahi's health was worsening. Libya had already applied for him to be released under a prison transfer scheme, with Colonel Gaddafi chasing up the matter personally with Gordon Brown at the G8 summit in Rome last month. Then the Libyan also applied for release on compassionate grounds, claiming he had only weeks to live. Both entirely separate decisions fell to MacAskill to clear up. The justice secretary went about the case with customary zeal. In July, he held a teleconference call with the American relatives of the Lockerbie dead, where he was told in no uncertain terms on either basis – on a prison transfer agreement or on compassionate grounds – they were opposed to him moving. Then, a few weeks later, MacAskill took the controversial step – in the full gaze of the media – of deciding to meet Megrahi himself.

Speculation was already rife that MacAskill was softening his stance. But it still came as a jolt on Wednesday evening when, on its late night news bulletin, the BBC suddenly announced that he had decided to let Megrahi go. The man convicted of killing 270 people would be back home for Ramadan, which starts this Friday. The reason: "compassionate grounds".

So have SNP ministers, as is widely assumed, backed Megrahi's release? Publicly, they insist not. As we reveal today, sources say the decision will not be taken this week, because MacAskill still has further submissions of evidence, from Megrahi's prison governor and the parole board, to study. Taken at face value, this suggests that Scottish ministers have indeed yet to make up their minds.

But for many, the decision of Megrahi's lawyers to ditch his appeal last week, was proof in itself that a deal had been done. SNP MSP Christine Grahame stepped forward, claiming to have seen a Scottish Government e-mail which said that al–Megrahi had been put under pressure to drop his appeal before his compassionate release would be granted. Oliver Miles, a former British ambassador to Libya, declared yesterday: "It's pretty likely there was a deal." Others close to the case say that there would have been strong pressure from within the Scottish Government's justice department and the Crown Office to ensure that, at all costs, the appeal be dumped. One senior justice figure said: "They (the Scottish Government] don't want an appeal to pick over the justice system and show it to have been wanting. Don't forget that Kenny (MacAskill] is part of that system. He is a legal man through and through. This is an administration which places great stock in establishing its competence. They don't want to see the Scottish justice system dragged through the mud".

First Minister Alex Salmond was at pains to deny the speculation yesterday. "We have no interest in pressurising people to drop appeals. Why on earth should we? That's not our position – never has been." Those who put forward the case that the SNP Government brokered a deal also have to ask whether Salmond and MacAskill would really want to incur the wrath of the wildly popular Obama administration.

That the SNP pair are facing such an acute dilemma was the source of some wry comment in Whitehall last week. Many recall that it was only two years ago that Salmond had complained that a deal on release was being stitched up by Tony Blair behind his back.

But why, ask the conspiracy theorists, has the news of Megrahi's release been dangled out into the public so obtusely? Why has the matter been allowed to drag on? Might it be that Salmond is revelling in the quandary? After all, not only has the affair given the SNP Government the fleeting chance to show that Edinburgh can hold the world's attention, the dilemma may also offer Salmond a substantial bargaining chip. Insiders point out that both the Foreign Office and the British Intelligence services will be content for the entire matter to go away. Former MP Tam Dalyell, a long-time campaigner for al–Megrahi, also pointed out yesterday that, while the Americans may be angry in public, officials in Washington and at the CIA will be delighted that the matter now looks set to disappear. Gaddafi will be making capital out of Megrahi's release. In two weeks, he addresses the United Nations, and next month he marks the 40th anniversary of his "revolution".

So what capital might Salmond be making? Yesterday, there were reports that if MacAskill does release Megrahi, oil giant BP will be freed up to join in the oil rush in Libya, where vast reserves remain untapped. Is the Scottish Government going to let this moment of unprecedented global influence pass without securing some form of payback? One source said: "I think a few months down the line, there'll be an announcement of some investment relating to Libya, or some concession to the SNP. And then we'll be asking, was that related to Lockerbie?"

The speculation is sure to carry on. And yet, this sweeping global drama may soon all end if, as is widely thought, Megrahi dies before it reaches its conclusion. In Greenock jail, the Lockerbie bomber is no longer being treated, sources say. So advanced is his cancer that doctors are simply offering pain relief. The end is nigh – and may come before MacAskill reaches his decision.

It might be seen as a fitting end to a case which, for 20 years, has never provided the answers that the relatives of those who died deserved. For them, justice looks as far away as ever.

Moves for Megrahi's release

Abdelbaset Ali Mohmed al-Megrahi was jailed for life in 2001 for killing 270 people when New York-bound Pan Am 103 blew up over Lockerbie in December 1988.

• He was handed over with fellow suspect, Al-Amin Khalifa Fahima, under a UN-brokered deal in April 1999. He is being held in Greenock Prison.

• In November 2008, Megrahi's lawyers asked a court to free him on bail because he has advanced prostate cancer.

• Libya lobbied for Megrahi's release this year. In July, Libyan leader, Colonel Muammar al-Gaddafi asked Prime Minister Gordon Brown for help with the case

• Megrahi was reportedly born in Tripoli and is married with five children.

• His wife, Aisha al-Megrahi, and sons pleaded for compassion from the people of Scotland when they took part in a "walk for justice" to the Scottish Parliament in December.

• Justice Secretary Kenny MacAskill, right, is considering whether Megrahi should be released on compassionte grounds or through a prisoner transfer agreement.

http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/world/The-end-game-The-fate.5558214.jp

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Lockerbie: after the conspiricies ... the cover up?

On Friday, Abdelbaset Ali Mohmed al Megrahi, the only person found responsible by a court for the destruction of Pam Am flight 103 over Lockerbie, will drop a second appeal against his conviction and be allowed to go home to Libya to die. Suffering from terminal prostate cancer, Megrahi is said to be only a few weeks from death. Over the next four pages, we look at the legal and moral issues which have put the Scottish government into the international spotlight; claims that the truth will now never be known; reaction to the decision in the UK, USA and Libya; and where it now leaves the families of the 270 victims of the atrocity

MCASKILL IN the eye of the storm: By Tom Gordon and Paul Hutcheon

HIS 16 years as a partner in an Edinburgh law firm have been invaluable to Kenny MacAskill's work as justice secretary, grounding him in the practicalities of law and order in Scotland, and helping sell reform to vested interests. Unlike his predecessors, MacAskill knew from day one how the justice system ticked.

This week, however, even his extensive legal background is likely to count for little, as MacAskill performs the most important act of his career, and arguably the most important act in Scotland since devolution. In the full glare of international publicity, MacAskill will liberate the sole person convicted of killing 270 people in the UK's worst terrorist atrocity, the bombing of Pan Am flight 103 over Lockerbie in December 1988.

Hillary Clinton, the US secretary of state, and the families of the American victims, have made plain their opposition to returning Abdelbaset Ali Mohmed al Megrahi to his native Libya, despite prostate cancer leaving him just weeks to live.
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Domestically MacAskill faces accusations - some from within his own party - that his department has been involved in murky deals and threats to rush Megrahi home in order to suppress the untold truth of the Lockerbie bombing. There is also anger at the cack-handed way in which news of Megrahi's imminent release has emerged, through secret briefings to the BBC, leaks, rumours and anonymous emails. The most momentous event since devolution, one with global repercussions, is turning into a farce.

Whichever way MacAskill turns he faces trouble. He cannot complain it was unexpected.

The Lockerbie question has been rising inexorably to the top of his in-tray ever since he sat at his desk in St Andrew's House.

In early June 2007, just few weeks after the SNP entered government, it emerged that Tony Blair, the then prime minister, had struck a "deal in the desert" with Libyan president Muammar Gaddafi on judicial co-operation between the two countries.

A livid Alex Salmond told MSPs the agreement covered "law, extradition and prisoner transfer". Although Westminster insisted this was not aimed at transferring Megrahi home, it was hard to imagine the UK's most famous Libyan prisoner had been overlooked.

That Blair's visit coincided with BP signing a £450 million oil contract with Libya fuelled suspicions that Megrahi was part of diplomatic horse-trading between London and Tripoli. Westminster would later tell Edinburgh apologetically that, actually, Lockerbie was covered by the deal, much to Salmond's fury.

The first minister remained adamant that the final decision on Megrahi's location would be taken in Scotland, but it was clear the "great game" of international politics had started without him. Also, in June 2007, the Scottish Criminal Cases Review Commission (SCCRC) announced its four-year investigation into Megrahi's trial had uncovered six separate grounds for believing the conviction may have been a miscarriage of justice.

This cleared the way for Megrahi, who had already tried unsuccessfully to overturn his conviction in 2002, to launch a second appeal.

Since then, the case has become even knottier. In late 2008, Megrahi's lawyers announced he was suffering from advanced prostate cancer and asked the appeal court to release him from Greenock prison on bail. The move failed, but the issue was bound to resurface.

In April this year, almost two years after the SCRRC referred his case back to court, Megrahi's appeal finally got under way in Edinburgh. Then in May, the Libyan authorities made a formal application for Megrahi to be returned home under Blair's prisoner transfer agreement (PTA) to serve out the rest of his sentence.

But a key part of the PTA is that it can only work when no legal proceedings are outstanding. In other words, for Megrahi to benefit from it, he would first have to drop his appeal, the last chance of clearing his name.

As he dearly wanted to spend his remaining time with his family, but dreaded going down in history as the Lockerbie bomber, he appeared caught. To some of those backing his release, it seemed he was almost being taunted by the legal system.

As his illness worsened, his appeal took another twist as one of the five judges hearing the case underwent heart surgery, adding months to the proceedings, and meaning Megrahi would almost certainly die before the outcome. With time running out, Megrahi applied in July to MacAskill for release on compassionate grounds.

After meeting Libyan officials and families of the Lockerbie victims, MacAskill took the unprecedented step of visiting Megrahi in jail.

To Lockerbie watchers, it was clear there was a new urgency in affairs, and release for Megrahi looked increasingly likely.

Release on compassionate grounds was an "easier sell" than the prisoner transfer agreement. The PTA is also open to judicial review and American families have indicated they would attempt to challenge it, creating more delays.

But last week, rumours surfaced that MacAskill's justice department was pressuring Megrahi to drop his appeal in return for compassionate release.

Although ending the appeal was a pre-condition for formal prisoner transfer, it wasn't for compassionate release. So why would the justice department want it?

On Tuesday, an anonymous email sent to an MSP, which purported to come from inside the justice department, suggested senior officials were trying to kill the appeal to keep embarrassing facts about the trial at Camp Zeist a secret - essentially, that it was skewed against the defendants and, far from being a triumph of Scottish justice, was a shameful mess. "The appeal is creating an almighty headache for the Scottish criminal justice system," it said.

The government denied improper pressure but on Wednesday evening the BBC reported Megrahi would indeed be released on compassionate grounds. On Friday, his lawyers gave notice they would abandon the appeal.

Although the move gave Megrahi a second "out" - reviving the possibility of a prisoner transfer home on top of a compassionate release - it ended any hope of clearing his name or getting to the bottom of what happened to flight 103. So what is going on?

As so often with Lockerbie, opinions abound, facts are scarce, and the most obvious answer is rarely the right one. True, Megrahi is gravely ill. His cancer has spread, and is not responding to chemotherapy. His doctors estimate he has less than three months to live - the benchmark for compassionate release.

However all sides of the argument also believe that politics, rather than mercy, will finally decide his fate. For Nationalist MSP Christine Grahame, who has visited Megrahi regularly in jail, his return to Libya next week is the result of pressure from the justice department, which wanted to preserve the reputation of the court system. "I know from the lengthy discussions I had with him that he was desperate to clear his name, so I believe that the decision is not entirely his own," she said.

"There are a number of vested interests who have been deeply opposed to this appeal continuing as they know it would go a considerable way towards exposing the truth behind Lockerbie."

If Megrahi had died with the appeal ongoing, his family could have taken it up to clear his name posthumously - hence the decision to give it up.

Another source said dropping the appeal meant the truth about Lockerbie was now "buried", and not even a public inquiry would unearth it.

"Why do that when all the indicators are that it's not the PTA that's going to be used, it's the compassionate release? That's a very good question."

Hans Kochler, UN-appointed special observer to the Lockerbie trial, suspects Megrahi may have been subjected to "morally outrageous" blackmail to abandon his case.

Not surprisingly, the view within the Scottish government is rather different.

Ministers believe the Libyan government wanted Megrahi to scrap his appeal as it would have confirmed his guilt over Lockerbie and set back Gaddafi's plans for diplomatic rehabilitation.

While the Lockerbie trial may have been slipshod, and even included faked evidence, it convicted the right man, a government source said.

"The Libyans know his guilt would be confirmed in an appeal. The Libyans just want him out. They were quite explicit about it.

"The UK government are nervous about the appeal because they're withholding documents in court on security grounds. The Americans are nervous about the appeal because of things said and done during the investigation. We've got nothing to hide. We've got no interest in this appeal being dropped."

Trying to clear a path out of this thicket of conflicting interests stands Kenny MacAskill.

Tomorrow, he is expected to receive final medical reports on Megrahi's cancer.

On Tuesday, the appeal will formally be abandoned in court, and MacAskill will address the Scottish cabinet on his decision.

Megrahi is expected back in Libya by the end of the week. Given the competing demands over Lockerbie, MacAskill cannot win, but nor will be he crushed.

The scale of the event will only emphasise his own small part in it, the bloke who happened to be in charge when the international music stopped.

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The legal system has nothing to be ashamed of ... unlike Holyrood

Scottish justice in the dockBy QC Paul McBride

In December 1988, Pan Am Flight 103 blew up over Lockerbie killing men, women, children and leaving thousands of people affected by the brutal execution of their families. Two men faced an independent, impartial and internationally observed trial in Camp Zeist in Holland, represented at considerable expense by a number of QCs, both senior and junior, and solicitors. One of the accused was acquitted but Abdelbaset Ali Mohmed Al Megrahi was convicted of the charges and sentenced to life imprisonment.

Following his conviction Megrahi launched an appeal involving the most senior judges in the Scottish Judiciary, which was unanimously rejected.

Those who have studied this case in detail, including four Lord Advocates, the present justice secretary Kenny MacAskill, and first minister Alex Salmond have found the prosecution case compelling. Salmond told the Times newspaper in 2008 that he found nothing in the evidence to suggest the conviction was unsafe and that Megrahi should serve his sentence in Scotland.

We are now told with no detail that because of advanced prostate cancer Megrahi, who has committed the worst terrorist atrocity in British history, will now be allowed to return to his own country. The compassion which appears to have been extended to him is not being extended to the relatives of the deceased.

His second appeal against conviction referred to the appeal court by the SCCRC has now been abandoned by Megrahi, even although he could have continued with his appeal despite being released on compassionate grounds.

That is the background to this case. This case has passed through the hands of most of the senior judges in Scotland who have been satisfied beyond reasonable doubt as to his guilt and the fact that he has now abandoned his appeal should dispel any suggestion from his supporters that he is anything other than the vilest of mass murderers.

However, what is now at stake is the reputation of the Scottish legal system and the Scottish government as it is perfectly obvious that the secretive, incompetent, underhand and duplicitous way this process has been arrived at by Salmond's government is making Scotland in the eyes of the world a laughing stock. The fact that MacAskill has met Megrahi in prison and the coincidence of his apparent decision to release him on compassionate grounds, together with a simultaneous announcement that he is dropping his appeal, looks like the worst kind of stitch up.

The government claims that it has not made any decisions but is privately leaking to the press its intentions regarding this man.

Christine Graham, an SNP MSP, says that she has seen a leaked e-mail from the Scottish justice department showing that senior officials were pressing Megrahi to drop his appeal.

In the meantime the public is not privy to the conversation which took place between MacAskill and Megrahi, the medical evidence and his life expectancy, the reason why he agreed to abandon his appeal and why Salmond and MacAskill have not informed Parliament or the public the basis upon which they intend to reach this very important decision.

The justice secretary looks more blundering with every day that passes and a serious international incident is now brewing as it is said that the Obama administration is furious at the way this matter is being handled. We have also not been told if, when Megrahi is being released, whether he will go to his plush house in Newton Mearns or return to Tripoli.

If he is released it will be a dagger in the heart again for all of those whose lives have been ruined by this evil man.

Until all of the questions posed above have been answered and Salmond's government sets out truthfully the position to the people of Scotland we are in danger of becoming the laughing stock of the world.

I am frankly ashamed at the way this matter has been dealt with by a regime which appears to become less competent every day that it remains in office.

Paul McBride is an adviser on law and order to the Conservative Party

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"I will never rest until I know who killed my daughter ... and why"

The case for a public inquiry By Martin Williams

RELATIVES of those who lost loved ones in the Lockerbie bombing have warned the Scottish government about the legal consequences if a public inquiry is not carried out into how Abdelbaset Ali Mohmed al Megrahi was convicted, it emerged yesterday.

In a letter to justice secretary Kenny McAskill, a representative of the relatives says that the Scottish government should not be pressured by the US government to keep Megrahi in jail.

The former Libyan agent, jailed for 27 years over the 1988 atrocity that killed 270 people, has made an application to drop his appeal to the High Court in Edinburgh following reports he is set to be freed on compassionate grounds due to terminal cancer. The plan to drop the appeal concerned those who believe Megrahi, 57, was wrongly convicted and that there are more facts which need to emerge from the case.

In an attempt to sway Mr McAskill's mind, Dr Jim Swire, who lost his daughter Flora on the ill-fated Pan Am flight and who serves as a spokesman for many of the British victims, told Mr McAskill that a public inquiry would have to be "very penetrating".

He warned he was "reluctantly" considering action against the Crown Office under Human Rights legislation, believing the prosecuting authority had "deliberately obstructed my rights to know who killed my daughter".

Dr Swire has pointed to a key piece of evidence of which judges had not been made aware: a break-in at Pan Am's baggage assembly shed at Heathrow on the morning of the bombing. Dr Swire, of the UK Families Flight 103 pressure group, said they were also seeking an annulment of the findings of the Lockerbie Fatal Accident Inquiry on grounds of evidence about the break-in being withheld, and then to seek a new one or legitimate equivalent in its place.

He told the minister there are aspects of the case "which cast doubt on the integrity of those conducting the criminal investigation, and those who supplied information to them". And the 73-year-old retired GP warned: "Rather than having to initiate legal actions, it might be better were there to be an inquiry ordained by the Scottish parliament."

He believes an inquiry would have to include public hearings and evidence given under oath, with appropriate penalties for perjury.

He added: "Do not underrate the determination behind it either. I am going to find out who killed my daughter, why they were not prevented from doing so and why this case has become so distorted."

Dr Swire said he was aware that the minister was being exposed to "extreme pressures" over Megrahi's fate from "our mighty ally across the Atlantic", but he pointed to statements from Hans Koechler, President of the International Progress Organisation, who was the official UN observer at the trial and described the decisions of Megrahi's trial and appeal courts as a "spectacular miscarriage of justice".

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"An inquiry is the only hope of getting a new criminal probe"

The expert's viewBy Martin William

One of the architects of the original Lockerbie trial believes a wide-ranging public inquiry is now the only way relatives and campaigners can get what they are fighting for - a fresh criminal investigation. Professor Robert Black (pictured below left) said the dropping of the appeal against the conviction of Abdelbaset Ali Mohmed al Megrahi over the Lockerbie bombing would destroy immediate hopes of a new criminal probe into who was responsible.

Lawyers for the former Libyan agent, jailed for 27 years over the 1988 atrocity that killed 270 people, has made the application to drop the appeal to the High Court in Edinburgh following reports he is set to be freed on compassionate grounds as he has prostate cancer which his supporters say is terminal. The application still has to be approved by the court and a hearing will take place at Edinburgh's High Court on Tuesday.

The plan to drop the appeal has dismayed those who believe Megrahi, 57, was wrongly convicted and that there are more facts that need to emerge in the case. In 2007, the Scottish Criminal Cases Review Commission said Megrahi had grounds for an appeal, including a possible miscarriage of justice, because the Crown had not disclosed a document that an unidentified country provided to the UK government in 1996.

Prof Black, who was responsible for drawing up the framework for the trial, which was held in the Netherlands under Scottish law, said any public inquiry must be independent and take a broad view over Lockerbie and not just be confined to the mechanics of how Megrahi was convicted. He says the inquiry, if it throws up sufficient doubt about the legal procedure and the investigation, would be the only thing that would now trigger a fresh criminal probe of Lockerbie by the Scottish authorities.

He said there would be no impetus from the prosecuting authorities to launch any new investigation while Megrahi remained convicted. "Effectively, the dropping of the appeal is a pure formality," he said. "Realistically, you are not going to get a fresh criminal investigation into Lockerbie. The Crown Office are going to say after the appeal is abandoned that they still have someone convicted. They will stonewall like mad.

"The appeal has been demanded and if the public demands this be investigated then it would seem a public inquiry is the only way to get that. The public inquiry could lead to recommendations or changes in investigation, prosecution and adjudication. That could pave the way to a new investigation."

He said there was no way under Scottish criminal procedure, as had previously been suggested, that relatives of those who died in the bombing could continue the appeal if Megrahi instructed it to be abandoned. "If Mr Megrahi died while the appeal was still proceeding, then any person with a legitimate interest could apply to the court to be allowed to continue it. But if the appellant himself abandons his appeal, there is no mechanism for allowing a third party to take it over," he said.

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A potent mix of politics and oil

The view from London, Libya and WashingtonBy James Cusick

In London, the Foreign Office's official line is surprising no-one with any knowledge of UK-Libyan relations. The decision on the jailed Libyan, say senior officials, is one for the Scottish government.

Foreign Office sources, however, denied diplomats or UK government lawyers expected new information on Lockerbie that would cloud any certainty Megrahi was involved in the mass murder to emerge before the end of the year.

Abandoning the expected appeal proceedings will though be a bonus for BP, the oil and gas multi-national that in 2007 began exploring and developing Libya's vast untapped oil and gas resources. Out of the country for more than 30 years since the Gaddafi revolution, BP now has a planned $25 billion investment programme wrapped up in a deal with Libya's National Oil Corporation.

The initial seven-year deal signed in 2007, during Blair's meeting with Gaddafi and key commercial ministers, involves extensive exploration and the construction of three vast liquefaction terminals that includes one to process gas from the Sirte region.

Only last month BP put out tenders requesting "expression of interest" from international contractors to provide well services to support the company's imminent exploration programmes in the onshore Ghadames and offshore Sirt blocks. Contractor's applications had to be in by July 22.

If Megrahi goes back to Libya, and the prospect of Lockerbie being re-examined conveniently fades, there are expectations in some parts of the oil industry that bureaucratic delays in the exploration programme will ease and the prospect of swift access to Libya's 42 billion barrels of oil reserves will improve.

Other analysts say Megrahi in jail or out, still in Scotland or back home, will have no bearing on BP's enterprises in Libya.

But whatever the potency of the mix of oil and politics, for Gaddafi the return of al-Megrahi will be a massive and timely success.

Although regarded as Libya's dictator, Gaddafi rules through the General People's Congress. Knowing which way the political wind in Libya is blowing is crucial for Gaddafi to maintain his popularity.

He is a member of the Gaddadfa tribe, and rules a country where tribal politics remains important. Megrahi is said to be an important member of the Magariha tribe. For Gaddafi to be able to announce his return on the 40th anniversary of the coup which brought him to power will be a crucial re-affirmation of his authority and a popularity.

The release and welcome home celebrations will also signal a chapter of success in Gaddafi's process of ending Libya's international exile.

One legal analyst warns that the potential return of Megrahi - even with the US Secretary of State, Hilary Clinton, urging the Scottish government that he should serve out his sentence in Scotland - should not be seen in isolation. "This is just the latest chapter that began in 2003 with Libya openly abandoning its nuclear weapons programme," he said.

"There has been a Libyan agreement on compensation for the victims of the bombing, the 2007 deal on prisoner exchange, the commercial agreements brokered by Tony Blair, on oil and gas with BP."