Poll gives Charlie Crist 6-point lead over Rubio
By Jim Stratton
Gov. Charlie Crist holds a six-point lead in Florida's race for the U.S. Senate, but his advantage is propped up by a cadre of Democratic voters who may abandon Crist as they become more familiar with the campaign's Democratic candidate, a poll found Thursday.
Crist, who left the Republican Party last week to run as an independent, is supported by 38 percent of likely voters. Republican Marco Rubio is backed by 32 percent and U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek, the leading Democrat, is supported by 19 percent.
About 11 percent are undecided, according to Mason-Dixon Polling & Research.
The news is good for Crist, who was getting shellacked by Rubio in the GOP primary, but it may be misleading, pollster Brad Coker said.
He points out that 55 percent of Crist supporters are Democrats and that the governor is getting about 19 percent of the African-American vote. Coker said it is "very questionable" that those numbers will hold up as the campaign wears on.
Many of those voters will likely gravitate toward Meek, who is African-American, causing Crist's numbers to tumble, he said.
"When you see that more than half of Crist voters are Democrats, that's a big red warning sign," Coker said.
Even if Crist holds his lead among independent voters, Coker said, it won't "offset the likely loss of support among Democrats he will suffer as Meek increases his name recognition." About 40 percent of voters still say they do not know who Meek is.
Rubio, meanwhile, appears well on his way to locking up the Republican vote. He gets 70 percent of that group, while Crist gets 18 percent. Among Democrats, Crist is polling at 48 percent, Meek is at 36 percent and Rubio is at 4 percent.
Crist holds a 12 percentage point lead over Rubio among women voters and is tied with Rubio among men. Crist leads among voters older than 50, while Rubio has an edge among younger voters.
Crist left the Republican Party last week as it became increasingly clear that he had little chance of beating Rubio, a former Florida House speaker, in the GOP primary. Recent polls show Crist leading in a three-way race, but analysts caution that the numbers may reflect a short-term bounce the governor got when he broke from the party.
The Mason-Dixon poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Pollsters interviewed 625 likely voters between Monday and Wednesday.
