Florida Senate: Rubio 36%, Crist 34%, Meek 15%
Rasmussen Reports ^ | 07/08/10
Florida’s Senate race remains all about Republican-turned-independent Charlie Crist and likely GOP nominee Marco Rubio.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Florida finds the two candidates neck-and-neck again this month, with Rubio earning 36% support and Crist, the state’s current Republican governor, capturing 34% of the vote. Prospective Democratic candidate Kendrick Meek remains a distant third, picking up 15%. Fourteen percent (14%) of the state’s voters remain undecided.
A month ago, Rubio, former speaker of the Florida House, and Crist were tied at 37% apiece. Meek, an African-American congressman from the North Miami area, again was at 15%.
Crist, who opted in early May to run as an independent when Rubio began to run away with the Republican Primary race, bounced to a modest lead - and his highest level of support at 38% - following that announcement. Rubio’s support in the same period has ranged from 34% to 39%. Meek hit a high of 22% in the three-way race in April but has lost ground since then.
If Meek’s Democratic Primary challenger, billionaire real estate Jeff Greene, is their opponent, Rubio gets 37% of the vote to Crist’s 33%. Greene earns 18% support, while 12% remain undecided. Crist’s support is down eight points from the previous survey, while Greene is up five.
According to recent news reports, some influential Democrats are gravitating toward Crist, who has been moving to the left legislatively in recent weeks. Greene, meanwhile, has been spending heavily to introduce himself to Florida voters.
Both parties will choose their nominees in August 24 primaries.
This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Florida was conducted on July 6, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Regardless of which Democrat is in the race, Rubio carries roughly 60% of the GOP vote, while Crist earns 29% support from voters in his former party. It will be interesting to see if Crist can hang on to this level of support from Republicans as the campaign wears on.
Democrats are narrowly divided between Crist and the candidate from their own party. Voters not affiliated with either party give a slight edge to Crist. But nearly one-out-of-five Democrats and unaffiliateds remain undecided.
Rubio runs stronger among voters over 40, while Crist earns his best numbers among voters ages 18 to 39. Most conservatives like Rubio. Moderates and liberals give the edge to the governor.
The Florida Senate race remains a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power ratings.
Fifty-three percent (53%) of all Florida voters approve of the job Crist is doing as governor, down seven points from last month. Crist had seen his ratings decline over the past year as he struggled in the Republican primary. Then, he enjoyed a bounce following his decision to run as an Independent. Last month, his numbers moved even higher as he responded to the Gulf Oil spill. That issue was an important reminder that a sitting Governor has ways to remain in the news that are not normally available to independent candidates.
Forty-five percent (45%) now disapprove of the Governor’s performance.
Fifty-seven percent (57%) favor repeal of the national health care bill, comparable to findings nationally, while 37% oppose repeal. This includes 47% who Strongly Favor repeal and 26% who are Strongly Opposed.
Rubio earns over 60% support from the larger group that Strongly Favors repeal, regardless of his Democratic opponent. Crist captures just over half of those who Strongly Oppose repeal in both match-ups.
Sixty-two percent (62%) of voters in the state favor passage of an immigration law like Arizona’s in Florida, slightly stronger than support nationwide. Twenty-four percent (24%) oppose such a law.
Fifty-five percent (55%) of those who favor an Arizona-like law support Rubio, a Cuban-American. Voters opposed to that kind of law in Florida lean toward Crist.
Nineteen percent (19%) of Florida voters have a Very Favorable opinion of Crist, while another 19% view him Very Unfavorably, up six points from last month.
Rubio is regarded Very Favorably by 24% and Very Unfavorably by 25%, an eight-point increase from the previous survey.
For Meek, Very Favorables are eight percent (8%) and Very Unfavorables 17%.
Four percent (4%) share a Very Favorable view of Greene, while 19% see him Very Unfavorably.
At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with a strong opinion more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.
Forty-three percent (43%) of Florida voters approve of how President Obama is handling his job, down three points from last month. Fifty-seven percent (57%) disapprove. This is in line with Obama’s approval ratings nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
