Birth Death Adds 87K To Today's NFP Miss, 491K Jobs In Past Year Due To "Statistics"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/02/2011 08:51 -0400
Reality
Take Green (i.e. double zero), and subtract from it the Birth Death adjustment and presto: you have reality, or what we predicted earlier today- a negative NFP print. Also, for the seasonal sticklers Birth Death has added 491k jobs in the past year: no seasonality here.
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And yes, I'm aware the Birth/Death Adjustment isn't a new statistical model, as the BLS website stated it came into existence in 2000. Prior to that the BLS used "Bias-Adjustment Control". The measure isn't without its merits but I think its obvious it can be tweaked to say this or that as the graph shows, 497k jobs have been "Gained" due to the B/D Adj. I just don't think there is much credibility left after the prior and current president.
Food for the thought, Folks.
Oh, HAPPY FRIDAY. My town has an "Festival" beginning tonight with the opening of the Beer Tent. Good music, huge beers and free popcorn. Plus my neighbors will be working the taps so I get free huge beers. Hooray for me!
